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joshua7choi

Joined: 05 Jun 2008 Location: Suwon
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Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2009 3:57 pm Post subject: N. Korea may face anarchy after Kim Jong-il's death |
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North Korea may face anarchy after the death of its leader, Kim Jong-il, due to a lack of a clearly powerful successor despite reports that Kim has anointed one of his sons as heir, a Korea expert here said Wednesday.
"The fact that no succession process has been put into place openly makes one thing certain: the potential for anarchy within North Korea following Kim's death is very real," Bruce Bechtol, a professor at the Marine Corps Command and Staff College, told a forum at the Korea Economic Institute.
from http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2009/07/30/0301000000AEN20090730000200315.HTML |
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Cordova
Joined: 14 Apr 2009
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djsmnc

Joined: 20 Jan 2003 Location: Dave's ESL Cafe
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Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 5:57 am Post subject: |
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Anarchy in the NK! |
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stayfocused
Joined: 27 Jul 2009 Location: Seoul
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Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 6:13 am Post subject: |
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This is true. |
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benji
Joined: 21 Jul 2009
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Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 7:43 am Post subject: |
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Cant be worse than what they have now. |
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climber159

Joined: 02 Sep 2007
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Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2009 8:14 pm Post subject: |
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Quote: |
Cant be worse than what they have now.
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Really? Despite unknown numbers of people in labor camps and executions too numerous to count I bet it could get worse. At least there is order there now. If there is chaos when Mr. Kim dies we might see the NK troops try to control the public. When the public then attempt to flee they are confronted by the Chinese (who don't want a flood of refugees), or the DMZ (and the South doesn't want a flood of refugees either). There is the potential for the north to turn into a bloody chaos pretty quickly. |
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Panda

Joined: 25 Oct 2008
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Posted: Mon Aug 03, 2009 12:06 am Post subject: |
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There might be some riots after Kim II dies, but not that soon.
Because North Koreans are brainwashed, and it would take them quite a while to observe and review and react. ( Not to mention the power of current regime is still huge).
That was how Chinese did after Mao died in 1976, Deng XiaoPing, as Mao's successor, opened the door for Chinese people and it took them 10 years to learn things from the rest of the world...
As thoughts and free press of capitalism spread all over the country, a huge riot finally broke out in 1989 in China, which led this country to a curfew for another 10 years...
This is the reason why Chinese government refused to talk about things after Kim II dies with the US government. I remembered several years ago, my ex-bf asked me a question about the regime change after CCP falls, to me it was a ridiculous question. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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Posted: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:52 am Post subject: |
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Panda wrote: |
As thoughts and free press of capitalism spread all over the country, a huge riot finally broke out in 1989 in China, which led this country to a curfew for another 10 years... |
I don't know that 'riot' is the right word for what happened. More like a Chinese Woodstock with precocious student demands for the CCP.
I just don't see that happening in the DPRK. |
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Julius

Joined: 27 Jul 2006
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Posted: Mon Aug 03, 2009 3:34 am Post subject: |
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Panda wrote: |
Because North Koreans are brainwashed, and it would take them quite a while to observe and review and react. |
Agreed. I just don't see them capable of something like anarchy. Too downtrodden, too powerless, too out of the loop. |
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Panda

Joined: 25 Oct 2008
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Posted: Mon Aug 03, 2009 4:23 pm Post subject: |
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Kuros wrote: |
I don't know that 'riot' is the right word for what happened. More like a Chinese Woodstock with precocious student demands for the CCP.
I just don't see that happening in the DPRK. |
You probably are right that riot is not the right word, but I wouldnt say it was any festival either, it was quite serious and political.
You don't see that happening in North Korea just like no one would expect(including Deng himself) what student would do in 1989 in China right after the cultural revolution ended in 1976. |
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bixlerscott

Joined: 27 Sep 2006 Location: Near Wonju, South Korea
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Posted: Fri Aug 07, 2009 10:41 pm Post subject: |
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Many have escaped and went to Seoul via going overland through China, Laos, and Thailand to the Korean consulate in Bangkok where they take them in as South Korean citizens. Most of these are women who had to do favors for men to get passage while leaving their babies behind in hopes of getting money upon arrival in Seoul to pay Chinese men to get them out at a later time.
Being that many have escaped or trying and wishing to escape, this indicates there is a sentiment that North Korean people want freedom to escape their horrible regime so maybe they'll take Kim Jong-Il's death as a reason to rise and take a stand. Maybe not since the army will just intimidate them and even shoot down objectors. Most are probably also starved as to keep them skinny and weak as a measure of the regimes control over 20+ million people. Also, the South does not want to reunify as it would mean a huge financial cost and a short term blow to the South Korean economy as well as a sense of instability. The US, China, and Seoul are discussing these developing possibilities. If anything, the powers that be will want to keep things just the way they already are as to maintain a sense of stability of a strong South Korean economy and the North being a buffer communist state for China.
I won't be around to see the new dynamic Korea in person as I'm leaving in a few weaks, but the world will be watching and waiting. |
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seoulsucker

Joined: 05 Mar 2006 Location: The Land of the Hesitant Cutoff
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Posted: Sun Aug 09, 2009 8:59 am Post subject: |
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Julius wrote: |
Panda wrote: |
Because North Koreans are brainwashed, and it would take them quite a while to observe and review and react. |
Agreed. I just don't see them capable of something like anarchy. Too downtrodden, too powerless, too out of the loop. |
People there aren't as brainwashed as you'd think. I know a couple of guys here who escaped a few years ago, and just about everyone there knows how screwed up things are. However, the consequences of voicing any dissent are so grave that no one would ever dare. |
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dragon777
Joined: 06 Dec 2007
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Posted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 4:23 am Post subject: |
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These guys have been in power for a long time(1945). I just do not think that the NK people are going to rise up after Mr kim's eventual death and riot. For what???? they do not really understand anything else other than the terrible regime that has controlled them for decades. Some other joker will take control. |
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Steelrails

Joined: 12 Mar 2009 Location: Earth, Solar System
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Posted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 6:07 am Post subject: |
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djsmnc wrote: |
Anarchy in the NK! |
1) Democracy Now! Soldiers have had enough, People have had enough, The whole thing is like some People's people revolution with Liberty Leading the People. Tricolors and all that.
2) People's Transitional Committee for the Transition of the People. Some gang of 4-8 steps in and tries to PRC the DPRK into everything being A-OK.
3) All Hail Krull and His Glorious New Regime! Some strongman steps in and keeps things basically the same with several thousand to several million being killed, gulaged or 'relocated'. |
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ReeseDog

Joined: 05 Apr 2008 Location: Classified
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Posted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 7:08 am Post subject: |
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Julius wrote: |
Panda wrote: |
Because North Koreans are brainwashed, and it would take them quite a while to observe and review and react. |
Agreed. I just don't see them capable of something like anarchy. Too downtrodden, too powerless, too out of the loop. |
They'll just sit and wait for instructions or carry on like nothing's happened. |
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