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RyanInKorea
Joined: 17 Jan 2008
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 Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:57 am Post subject: |
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I got to agree with Warren. It is midly amusing and makes reading the last couple pages worthwile.
Ryan |
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bry0000000
Joined: 30 Jul 2009
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| Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2009 12:26 pm Post subject: |
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[quote="asmith"]
| bry0000000 wrote: |
| asmith wrote: |
| bry0000000 wrote: |
| asmith wrote: |
| eIn07912 wrote: |
well, theres only one thing to do...... wait and see.
if xmas comes and the world comes to an end like asmith says then we call say he's right and then ask him what we should do after.
if, however, he's wrong (which myself and many other intelligent people believe) then we all get to mock him without mercey for listening to kook economists and thinking the sky is going to fall.
if u want some sound commentary, listen to Paul Krugman (Nobel Prize Winning Economist, Ph.D from MIT, Professor of Economics and International Affairs at Princeton University, and Centenary Professor at the London School of Economics........ and no, u r not smarter than him)
Krugman is an idiot. Just another shill for the left. I don't care that he won a Nobel Prize. Lots of idiots win Nobel Prizes. Did he predict the subprime mortgage fall out? No. Is he now talking about the problem with commercial real-estate? No.
Krugman can't even change his own shorts. He's just another member of the Ivy League mafia. His kind of thinking got us into this mess. |
Man, I'm not Krugman fan. But seriously: Ivy League mafia? All the smart people are out to get us! |
A lot of them aren't smart. They are connected.
George Bush. Al Gore. John Kerry. Those three lard-heads don't belong anywhere near a community college nevermind the Ivy League.
Don't fool yourself. These people aren't brilliant.
But they are a mafia. You go to get connected. |
You're grouping Krugman in with the likes of George Bush? Do you even know why Krugman received his Nobel Peace Prize? Seriously, look at his work on the economics of scale; it's nothing short of brilliant.
He's a prof at Princeton. He's won the Nobel Peace Prize in economics. Even his detractors in the field of economics respect his work. The guy has credentials, and I think that alone makes it necessary to analyze his work and assertions, and apply those in your criticisms of him. |
He's an idiot. Wow! A prof at Princeton, no less! Then why didn't he tell us about the subprime mortgage crisis before it happened. Why isn't he telling us about the upcoming commercial real-estate crisis.
Other people predicted it. marc faber. peter schiff. max keiser. gerald celente. jim rogers.
Why didn't the ones who continue to get it right get the Nobel Prize?
Here's the answer: Fixed political game. |
Economists are always predicting recessions that don't happen. How many times were these guys wrong? Marc Faber certainly doesn't always get it right (he lost a lot of $$ trying to do it in '99). Krugman didn't get it right this time. So what? He's human. Predicting recessions is like... well... predicting recessions; it's a crap shoot. Sometimes you're right, most of the time you're wrong.
Regardless, a large part of the world thinks Krugman is brilliant. A small minority of conspiracy theorists think he's a crackhead. I'm going to side with the large part of the world. Call me crazy, but I think there's more value in listening to the guy than just writing him off.
Of course, I'd love to hear why you think he's crazy (other than that he didn't predict the recession, along with many other smart economists). It makes checking this forum worthwhile. |
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asmith
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
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| Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Suwon4AGT wrote: |
| eIn07912 wrote: |
| ...some loser that gets bossed around by elementary school students and thinks he's smarter than the rest of the world. |
I was thinking along these same lines today...about how many posters here (yes, including myself sometimes) think have they have some insider edge in what's going to happen with the global economy, but aren't smart enough to escape hagwon crazyland. |
You're right. I'm an idiot. I can't escape hagwon land.
But I'm smart enough to know what's going to happen to the economy. We are going to slip deeper into this depression. Any fool can see it.
And it is a depression. When the world loses 45 percent of its capital over night, that's a depression.
Here are some facts:
Deutsche Bank predicts that by 2011, 47 percent of American homes will be underwater. The number now stands at 26 percent. FACT.
Ben Bernanke won't call an end to the recession because of his fears of the looming commercial real-estate crisis. FACT.
Jobless claims rose again just yesterday. FACT.
Retail sales dipped again just yesterday. FACT.
Real unemployment--including the underemployed and the discouraged workers--stands at 17 percent. FACT.
Every 12 weeks, a million homes get foreclosed. FACT.
The American military is now in Mongolia having exercises with other nations. What's the focus of these operations? Crowd Control. FACT.
Let me get out my crystal ball. By Christmas, we will have double-digit unemployment. Even the federal government is admitting this.
Retail sales will dip. The government will try to artificially prop them up--like they are doing with cash for clunkers. Perhaps Uncle Sam will send its citizens some vouchers to go to Walmart. Why not? It's not real money anyway. They are just printing it out of thin air.
When the commercial real-estate developers can't pay the monthly nut on their highly-leveraged loans, Obama will give a speech telling all the sheeple how the nation needs a second stimulus package.
Before that happens, Obama and his dems will cram cap n trade and health care down America's throat, even though Americans don't want it. More town hall meetings and tea parties. This time, people will start getting hurt.
I know this. Any fool can see it--even a hagwon jockey like me.
So why can't a Nobel Prize winning economist see it? The answer is easy. He's an elite blue-state shill and yes-man. |
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asmith
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
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| Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2009 5:23 pm Post subject: |
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BTW, who is for health care? Big Pharma. Obama cut a deal with them. No more cheap drugs from Canada. Walmart is also behind the president on this move.
Who is for Cap and Trade? Goldman Sachs. GE. T. Boone Pickens. Walmart. They stand to make a fortune.
Who was Obama's number one financial supporter. The good boys over at Goldman Sachs. |
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eIn07912
Joined: 06 Dec 2008
Location: seoul
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| Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| But I'm smart enough to know what's going to happen to the economy. We are going to slip deeper into this depression. Any fool can see it. |
im a news junkie. id have heard more about this from sources other than urself if that were true.
| Quote: |
Here are some facts:
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| Quote: |
Deutsche Bank predicts that by 2011, 47 percent of American homes will be underwater. The number now stands at 26 percent. FACT.
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a prediction is not a fact
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Ben Bernanke won't call an end to the recession because of his fears of the looming commercial real-estate crisis. FACT.
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there can be several reasons he wont call an end to it. perhaps because it hasnt fully ended yet for one. this is an opinion, not a fact.
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| Jobless claims rose again just yesterday. FACT. |
the gov't measures unemployment and joblessness monthly, not daily. because the number fluctuates throughout the month. the last official figures had unemployment DOWN - FACT
| Quote: |
| Retail sales dipped again just yesterday. FACT |
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again, they measure these in months and not days because they move up and down throughout the month. down yesterday, up tomorrow.
| Quote: |
| Real unemployment--including the underemployed and the discouraged workers--stands at 17 percent. FACT |
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u r combining UNemployment with UNDERemployment. while both r problems, yes. they r also two different things. like most of us here r at least AVERAGE intelligence and u r BELOW AVERAGE intelligence. kind of looks the same, but in reality, its not.
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Every 12 weeks, a million homes get foreclosed. FACT.
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source please
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| The American military is now in Mongolia having exercises with other nations. What's the focus of these operations? Crowd Control. FACT |
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again, source please. u cant make outlandish claims without a source and expect people to just take ur word for it.
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Let me get out my crystal ball. By Christmas, we will have double-digit unemployment. Even the federal government is admitting this.
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unemployment is at 9.4% - double digits is only 0.6% away. given the standard margin of error, double digits could be here if 3 guys get fired for smoking a joint while on break at taco bell. its not that great of a leap.
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Retail sales will dip. The government will try to artificially prop them up--like they are doing with cash for clunkers. Perhaps Uncle Sam will send its citizens some vouchers to go to Walmart. Why not? It's not real money anyway. They are just printing it out of thin air.
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u think ur gonna have to pay people to go to walmart? ha!
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When the commercial real-estate developers can't pay the monthly nut on their highly-leveraged loans, Obama will give a speech telling all the sheeple how the nation needs a second stimulus package.
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The President has already mentioned the possible need for a second stimulus months ago. But that we'd put it off to the last possible minute.
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Before that happens, Obama and his dems will cram cap n trade and health care down America's throat, even though Americans don't want it. More town hall meetings and tea parties. This time, people will start getting hurt.
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cap n trade collapsed under its own weight already and didnt make it out of committee in the house.... more americans do want health care reform than dont. the ones that dont r just being far more vocal about it. and if most of the population is going to be unemployed, as u say, then maybe having health insurance that ISNT provided by ur employer would be a good thing?
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I know this. Any fool can see it--even a hagwon jockey like me.
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yes, just like any FOOL will tell u the moon landing was a hoax. bush planned 9/11. and obama was actually born in kenya, then became a naturalized citizen in indonesia, but his mom had the amazing foresight to see her son would be president 50 years later, so set up a false birth certificate and false notices of birth in two hawaii newspapers just days after he was born.... that woman was the most intelligent person of our time.
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| So why can't a Nobel Prize winning economist see it? The answer is easy. He's an elite blue-state shill and yes-man. |
when u get a Ph.D in economics, have studied and written about the subject for 40 years, and become a tenured professor of economics at two of the worlds leading universities is the day i give u the benefit of doubt over some "elite blue-state shill"..........(btw, why use "elite"? elite generally means higher educated and more accomplished, and well, better. when did it become a "bad thing" that our national leaders and great thinkers r, well, smart?... we saw this in the campaign "obama is an elitest because he went to harvard"... well u know what, harvard is the most prestigious school in the world. the people that go there and graduate, become editors of the harvard law review, r generally really really smart people. smarter than myself and most of the population. thats kind of what i want in a president after 8 years of the "plain spoken good ole' boy" and the mess he got us into) |
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bry0000000
Joined: 30 Jul 2009
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| Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:31 pm Post subject: |
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| I think one thing asmith is forgetting is that the economy is stabilizing. The unemployment RATE is declining, the stock markets aren't dropping and the fed is confident that inflation is under control. Yeah, we are still in a recession, but that's only because we haven't seen enough positive growth to pull us out of a recession yet. These things don't happen overnight. |
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asmith
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
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| Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:37 pm Post subject: |
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| bry0000000 wrote: |
| I think one thing asmith is forgetting is that the economy is stabilizing. The unemployment RATE is declining, the stock markets aren't dropping and the fed is confident that inflation is under control. Yeah, we are still in a recession, but that's only because we haven't seen enough positive growth to pull us out of a recession yet. These things don't happen overnight. |
The unemployment rate is dropping. We lost 250,000 jobs last month. The rate goes down?
The stock markets aren't dropping because they are being manipulated.
It's not a recession. When the world loses 45 percent of its capital, that's a depression. |
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Suwon4AGT
Joined: 26 Apr 2009
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| Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:37 pm Post subject: |
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| asmith wrote: |
You're right. I'm an idiot. I can't escape hagwon land.
But I'm smart enough to know what's going to happen to the economy. We are going to slip deeper into this depression. Any fool can see it. |
If you truly believe all of this gloom and doom and it bothers you that much, just go home and do something about it.
For myself, I'm gathering up as much cash as I can for the next 6 months and then I'm going home to join the other Americans that live in tent cities.
In fact, I am going to start my own tent city and I'm going to run it the same way these hagwon emperors run their empires. My personal tent is going to have a big poster of western children with a big slogan "LEARN ENGLISH AND HAPPINESS!!" And then I'm going to make a big red neon Christian cross and put it on top of my brown tent. That way, from afar it will look like I live inside a hot-fudge sundae. [/quote][/url][/list] |
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eIn07912
Joined: 06 Dec 2008
Location: seoul
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| Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:40 pm Post subject: |
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| asmith wrote: |
| bry0000000 wrote: |
| I think one thing asmith is forgetting is that the economy is stabilizing. The unemployment RATE is declining, the stock markets aren't dropping and the fed is confident that inflation is under control. Yeah, we are still in a recession, but that's only because we haven't seen enough positive growth to pull us out of a recession yet. These things don't happen overnight. |
The unemployment rate is dropping. We lost 250,000 jobs last month. The rate goes down?
The stock markets aren't dropping because they are being manipulated.
It's not a recession. When the world loses 45 percent of its capital, that's a depression. |
jesus christ man. we were losing half a million to a million or more jobs a month at the beginning of the year. so yeah, compared to that, 250,000 is DOWN!
thats it. ive concluded u have absolutely no idea what ur talking about. i dont throw this term around to many people, but u sir, r an IDIOT. dumb as an absolute brick. |
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tfunk
Joined: 12 Aug 2006
Location: Dublin, Ireland
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| Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:43 pm Post subject: |
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I used to yo-yo between optimism and pessimism. There are indicators to support both outlooks and Google can pull up 'evidence' to support anything. I realized that the outlook I took was largely symptomatic of my own emotional state rather than an educated and informed analysis of economics.
On rainy days, it's all doom and gloom. On sunny days, we're going to see this through.
In two years time we may be looking back on all of this and laughing or crying.
Either way, what can you do about it? |
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asmith
Joined: 18 Jun 2009
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| Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2009 6:58 pm Post subject: |
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| eIn07912 wrote: |
| asmith wrote: |
| bry0000000 wrote: |
| I think one thing asmith is forgetting is that the economy is stabilizing. The unemployment RATE is declining, the stock markets aren't dropping and the fed is confident that inflation is under control. Yeah, we are still in a recession, but that's only because we haven't seen enough positive growth to pull us out of a recession yet. These things don't happen overnight. |
The unemployment rate is dropping. We lost 250,000 jobs last month. The rate goes down?
The stock markets aren't dropping because they are being manipulated.
It's not a recession. When the world loses 45 percent of its capital, that's a depression. |
jesus christ man. we were losing half a million to a million or more jobs a month at the beginning of the year. so yeah, compared to that, 250,000 is DOWN!
thats it. ive concluded u have absolutely no idea what ur talking about. i dont throw this term around to many people, but u sir, r an IDIOT. dumb as an absolute brick. |
I hope I'm an idiot. But the writing is on the wall.
Come late October or early November, the administration is going to start doling out money because they know Christmas is going to go right in the toilet.
So we are going to have a welfare Christmas. It's sort of like what Bush did when he started handing out checks because gasoline was getting so high.
The ship is sinking. |
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bry0000000
Joined: 30 Jul 2009
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| Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:42 pm Post subject: |
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| And whether or not they're being manipulated, the markets are stable enough for people to feel confident to start investing in them. Believe it or not, government intervention does inspire confidence in investors, especially if they believe the gov't won't allow their markets to fail. |
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drcrazy
Joined: 19 Feb 2003
Location: Pusan. Yes, that's right. Pusan NOT Busan. I ain't never been to no place called Busan
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| Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:55 pm Post subject: |
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But, as our feathered friend would agree, this is all really very good news.  |
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chuckster
Joined: 12 Feb 2007
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| Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2009 10:46 pm Post subject: |
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| eIn07912 wrote: |
| asmith wrote: |
| bry0000000 wrote: |
| I think one thing asmith is forgetting is that the economy is stabilizing. The unemployment RATE is declining, the stock markets aren't dropping and the fed is confident that inflation is under control. Yeah, we are still in a recession, but that's only because we haven't seen enough positive growth to pull us out of a recession yet. These things don't happen overnight. |
The unemployment rate is dropping. We lost 250,000 jobs last month. The rate goes down?
The stock markets aren't dropping because they are being manipulated.
It's not a recession. When the world loses 45 percent of its capital, that's a depression. |
jesus christ man. we were losing half a million to a million or more jobs a month at the beginning of the year. so yeah, compared to that, 250,000 is DOWN!
thats it. ive concluded u have absolutely no idea what ur talking about. i dont throw this term around to many people, but u sir, r an IDIOT. dumb as an absolute brick. |
The rate of job lose might be decreasing.. but the number of jobs lost is still increasing overall.
A good chart of this is here:
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/07/chart-of-the-day-1.html |
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Suwon4AGT
Joined: 26 Apr 2009
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| Posted: Fri Aug 14, 2009 11:10 pm Post subject: |
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Sad to see so many buy into the gloom and doom hype...oh well.
One thing is for sure. There really is no healthy perspective on this issue. I have turned to music, really good music, to help me cope. I offer you the same opportunity:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=04F22C_u658 |
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