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Is the Korean teacher market going to collapse?
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asmith



Joined: 18 Jun 2009

PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 3:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There really is no recovery coming.

After Christmas, the won will start to unravel. Somebody has to buy all the stuff that Koreans make. They will devalue the currency in the hopes of selling their exports.

The won will go off the cliff. Teachers will flee. Then we'll have another shortage.
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DCJames



Joined: 27 Jul 2006

PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 4:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

asmith wrote:
There really is no recovery coming.

After Christmas, the won will start to unravel. Somebody has to buy all the stuff that Koreans make. They will devalue the currency in the hopes of selling their exports.

The won will go off the cliff. Teachers will flee. Then we'll have another shortage.


ok, we get it Rolling Eyes and quite frankly no one cares what goes on in that cob-web-filled empty head of yours.
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Cheonmunka



Joined: 04 Jun 2004

PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 4:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Commodities are still mostly paid for in USD's.
I think there are a lot of implications in that - every country in the World is tied to the dollar in many ways. Surely there won't be a sudden sell-off. But, the US is buying other currencies. They already flooded NZ with 13 big ones - a large % of the GDP of NZ.

So New Zealanders are putting up with x-rates very similar to during the IMF period. And, this has already become a longer period than the few months of x-rate pressure between 1997 Nov and '98 March.
Simply because of foreign investment giving easy borrowing and an inflated sense of self-worth.
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asmith



Joined: 18 Jun 2009

PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 5:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cheonmunka wrote:
Commodities are still mostly paid for in USD's.
I think there are a lot of implications in that - every country in the World is tied to the dollar in many ways. Surely there won't be a sudden sell-off. But, the US is buying other currencies. They already flooded NZ with 13 big ones - a large % of the GDP of NZ.

So New Zealanders are putting up with x-rates very similar to during the IMF period. And, this has already become a longer period than the few months of x-rate pressure between 1997 Nov and '98 March.
Simply because of foreign investment giving easy borrowing and an inflated sense of self-worth.


When that US dollar drops--Bang--another IMF.
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runthegauntlet



Joined: 02 Dec 2007
Location: the southlands.

PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 5:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DCJames wrote:
asmith wrote:
There really is no recovery coming.

After Christmas, the won will start to unravel. Somebody has to buy all the stuff that Koreans make. They will devalue the currency in the hopes of selling their exports.

The won will go off the cliff. Teachers will flee. Then we'll have another shortage.


ok, we get it Rolling Eyes and quite frankly no one cares what goes on in that cob-web-filled empty head of yours.


Indeed. This should flash across his screen every time he feels compelled to spread this drivel AGAIN.
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TheUrbanMyth



Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired

PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 5:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

yoja wrote:
Personally, I don't think the market will ever totally collapse here in Korea. Stall, yes, but collapse, no.

I think instead ESL working conditions are in an endless but fairly predictable cycle, regardless of economic and other factors involved in why a particular stage is occurring.

I would describe the cycle in this way:

1. supply of teachers is less than demand. This results in some small wage increases, and overall general improved treatment (maybe not by much, but some) by hakwon bosses and others who are aware of the cost and difficulty of having to replace a teacher. Overall quality of teachers improves because nobody wants to brave the shark-infested waters of ESL. In general, only the bravest (or most desperate) souls and those who really are interested in education can be lured to Korea, and those few can afford to be picky in accepting employment. Really bad employers get blacklisted and have a hard time providing a warm body. Eventually they realize they're going to have to clean up their act.

2. supply of teachers generally meets demand. This results in everyone getting a little more meh, a little more mediocre, a little more apathetic--teachers still grumble that conditions aren't that great and that salaries haven't risen in the past ten years, and hakwon bosses and others generally make no special effort to be decent employers and/or to provide a positive working environment. Both teachers and employers generally feel that they are "settling" somewhat, as there's no incentive to improve working conditions overall.

3. supply of teachers is greater than demand. What we appear to currently be experiencing. Because teachers are a dime-a-dozen, employers know they can get away with a ton of BS, lies, and other shocking practices, such as SMOE's behavior this past month. Working conditions that suck become worse, and even the best schools have little or no incentive to improve themselves. Employers think they can be even more picky and underhanded in their hiring practices. Teachers worry that the most enticing benefits, such as free accommodation and a plane ticket will become a thing of the past. They suspect wages will never increase. Some may even predict that this stage will never pass, and that the world as we know it will collapse and we'll all feel blessed to work for a handful of rice while we await the rapture. Quality of teachers plummets as employers seek out the genetically blessed rather than ridiculous things like "experience" or "qualifications."

4. supply of teachers decreases in relation to demand. Teachers get tired of being screwed over, word gets out that Korea is not a great place to work, and regardless of the desperation level of potential teachers, they are scared of and unwilling to put up with all the BS that goes on here. Employers S- L - O - W - L - Y begin to realize they'd better clean up their act if they want to attract and keep a decent employee, or at least one who is able to stagger in to work everyday. They are still forced to offer flights and accommodation as their horrendous treatment, lies, and poor conditions have scared off all but the most desperate, masochistic, and brave. Wages still don't increase (ha ha, you were hoping, weren't you!), but employers are forced to give it far more consideration before nixing the idea.

5. And repeat steps 1-4, endlessly.

Again, IMHO this is a totally predictable cycle and it will continue as long as Koreans pretend they want to learn English without actually putting any effort into it (i.e, forever). Who knows, maybe I'm right, maybe I'm not. We'll just have to wait and see.


It's not a cycle though. To the best of my knowledge neither step 2 nor 3 has ever happened in Korea in the ESL industry before. There has always been a shortage of teachers. This is the first year something like step 2 (never mind step 3) has taken place.
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asmith



Joined: 18 Jun 2009

PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 6:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DCJames wrote:
asmith wrote:
There really is no recovery coming.

After Christmas, the won will start to unravel. Somebody has to buy all the stuff that Koreans make. They will devalue the currency in the hopes of selling their exports.

The won will go off the cliff. Teachers will flee. Then we'll have another shortage.


ok, we get it Rolling Eyes and quite frankly no one cares what goes on in that cob-web-filled empty head of yours.


Why resort to personal attacks? I'm not attacking you even though any fool can see the future.
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bigclanger3



Joined: 25 Mar 2009

PostPosted: Wed Aug 26, 2009 7:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I get it. He's one of these guys who always has to have the last word. Apologies to the OP but I can be a stubborn w*nker too.
asmith - GO AWAY!
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Mr_Bacon



Joined: 25 Jun 2009

PostPosted: Thu Aug 27, 2009 12:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow.

Somewhere between page 2 and here, I literally forgot that this was my thread. Some of you stayed on point, some others...not so much.

Someone definitely should sticky a Crier of the Apocalypse thread. That, or let him see his own reflection in a pond. He will be so utterly captivated by his own arguments that he'll pull a Narcissus and just debate himself forever.

In other words, if you want to discuss economic catastrophes, then GTFO my thread(s). That goes for everyone.

Now, there was a part 2 to my OP that is still unanswered re: alternative countries to go to. Have any of you heard good things about Taiwan? I did just a bit of searching, and the site I found told me all of the good, and none of the bad. Any good insights on the pros and cons of Taiwan?
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Bronski



Joined: 17 Apr 2006

PostPosted: Thu Aug 27, 2009 1:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mr_Bacon wrote:
Any good insights on the pros and cons of Taiwan?


http://forums.eslcafe.com/korea/viewtopic.php?t=163059
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Francis-Pax



Joined: 20 Nov 2005

PostPosted: Thu Aug 27, 2009 5:51 am    Post subject: Re: Is the Korean teacher market going to collapse? Reply with quote

Mr_Bacon wrote:
I was chatting with a Korean guy (now living in Toronto) a little while ago in a chat room. He earned his degree here in Canada, and had also gone back to SK as an English teacher for a few years.

About me:
Canadian, 2nd year university, hope to teach in Korea after I graduate

He told me that the job market for English teachers could potentially collapse depending on which party wins the next election. He said that the current party was responsible for creating the huge demand for native speaking teachers, but that now there are far more English students than there are English jobs. Apparently the opposition party plans to cut back the demand severely if they win, to save money and fix the imbalance between English speaking and English employment.

Can anyone verify that?

I've been looking forward to Korea...but since I won't graduate for another 3 years, should I give up my hope about Korea and find a plan B country? If so, what other countries (Asia preferred) should I look at?

Thanks a bunch,
-Mike


Mike, policy decisions are created and implemented in a very ad hoc manner in Korea. Korean politics is very fickle. There is no way to know what things will be like after the next election and it is just a waste of time and energy to even think about.
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DAC



Joined: 14 Aug 2009
Location: South Korea

PostPosted: Thu Aug 27, 2009 8:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think what will likely happen, if the present trend continues, is that Masters Degrees will be more in demand, and those of us who presently get away with teaching freshman university classes with only Bachelors (like me) will find fewer and fewer jobs that we will be considered for.

I disagree that the quality of teachers will go in the toilet. When I taught adult ESL in Toronto, I found the demands to actually teach much higher than I've found in 9 years in Korea, because in our countries native speakers are literally a dime a dozen, and the bad ones can be replaced more easily. Anonymous student feedback forms (at the adult level) helped to make teachers aware of what students like and don't like. And while what they like and don't like isn't the final word on what should be taught in the classroom, what the teacher thinks should be taught, to the exclusion of what the students are interested in, is a recipe for disaster in any classroom.

As the market becomes saturated, employers will be more likely to get rid of teachers who are only native speakers and don't give a rat's ass about what they teach to their students, as Korean parents will be more aware of what kind of teacher their kids COULD have, and complain about the disparity with their kids' present teacher.

And to put in my 2 cents, asmith, could you lay off? I can appreciate your opinion, and I agree with some of it, but it's only serving to distract both the people looking for assistance, and those who are interested in helping them.
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