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H1N1 Projections..

 
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eIn07912



Joined: 06 Dec 2008
Location: seoul

PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 7:13 am    Post subject: H1N1 Projections.. Reply with quote

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abCN9aBVJIkg

Quote:
Swine flu may hospitalize 1.8 million patients in the U.S. this year


Ok, that's a little scary. But hey, I'm sure we can deal with it as long as it stays a fairly mild flu like it is now

Quote:
Swine flu, also known as H1N1, may infect as much as half of the population and kill 30,000 to 90,000 people, double the deaths caused by the typical seasonal flu, according to the planning scenario issued yesterday by the President�s Council of Advisers on Science and Technology.


Ok. Did anyone else just drop a brick in their pants right then??!?
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bassexpander



Joined: 13 Sep 2007
Location: Someplace you'd rather be.

PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 7:22 am    Post subject: Re: H1N1 Projections.. Reply with quote

eIn07912 wrote:


Ok. Did anyone else just drop a brick in their pants right then??!?



Not a brick, but perhaps I did shake off a dingleberry or two. Laughing
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Dude Ranch



Joined: 04 Nov 2008

PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 8:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I bet whoever makes the money from the company that gets the order to produce the millions of vaccines is going to be a very happy person
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eIn07912



Joined: 06 Dec 2008
Location: seoul

PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 8:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dude Ranch wrote:
I bet whoever makes the money from the company that gets the order to produce the millions of vaccines is going to be a very happy person


Guess that makes this a good time to buy stock in the big ones, huh?
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brainfreeze



Joined: 04 Jul 2009

PostPosted: Tue Aug 25, 2009 3:22 pm    Post subject: Re: H1N1 Projections.. Reply with quote

[quote="eIn07912"]
Quote:
Swine flu, also known as H1N1, may infect as much as half of the population and kill 30,000 to 90,000 people, double the deaths caused by the typical seasonal flu, according to the planning scenario issued yesterday by the President�s Council of Advisers on Science and Technology.



That is actually the most important part. The influenza virus still kills those at most risk (the extremely young, and the extremely old). H1N1 is no different, it's just that since it's a different strain we have less immunity against it.

Most of you will not be in that high risk population; unless you have some sort of weird immune deficiency problem.
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orosee



Joined: 07 Mar 2008
Location: Hannam-dong, Seoul

PostPosted: Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:13 am    Post subject: Re: H1N1 Projections.. Reply with quote

eIn07912 wrote:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=abCN9aBVJIkg

Quote:
Swine flu may hospitalize 1.8 million patients in the U.S. this year


Ok, that's a little scary. But hey, I'm sure we can deal with it as long as it stays a fairly mild flu like it is now

Quote:
Swine flu, also known as H1N1, may infect as much as half of the population and kill 30,000 to 90,000 people, double the deaths caused by the typical seasonal flu, according to the planning scenario issued yesterday by the President�s Council of Advisers on Science and Technology.


Ok. Did anyone else just drop a brick in their pants right then??!?


I'm mostly surprised that the normal flu kills so many people. But certainly not in my neighbourhood, so I'm not worried at all. At this level, it is about as exciting as doubling your chances in, say, lotto.
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SOOHWA101



Joined: 04 Mar 2006
Location: Makin moves...trying to find 24pyung

PostPosted: Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

eIn07912 wrote:
Dude Ranch wrote:
I bet whoever makes the money from the company that gets the order to produce the millions of vaccines is going to be a very happy person


Guess that makes this a good time to buy stock in the big ones, huh?


The Index's components range from pharmaceutical giants like GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK - News), Novartis (NYSE: NVS - News), and Sanofi-Aventis (NYSE: SNY - News) to volatile small cap plays like Inovio Biomedical (AMEX: INO - News), Biocryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: BCRX - News), and Alpha Pro Tech (AMEX: APT - News). The latter three have all shot up by 200% or more in just the last three months.

Way ahead of you. Where there be trouble.....there be also a profit to be made:)
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English Matt



Joined: 12 Oct 2008

PostPosted: Thu Aug 27, 2009 2:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Even 90,000 deaths, whilst obviously tragic, is not something to get concerned about. The USA's population stands at well over 300 million. 90,000 is something like 0.3% of the population...hardly apocalyptic. My sister has already had swine flu and survived.

The idea that it may mutate in the future is a little concerning, but again if you live in a world of 'what if's' and 'maybes' you'll never run out of things to get worked up about. Actually I'm more interested to see how the public concern about the virus is going to play out here....will people start being more hygenic (stop spitting, place soap in the public bathrooms, actually get the schools cleaned professionally with warm water and cleaning chemicals, rather than the piss soaked mops and rags that the students currently drag round my school twice a day, etc.).....will we see a closure of the school system as per Japan in the spring.

So, no. I'm not dropping a brick....there's nothing to get my knickers in a twist about....yet
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PatrickGHBusan



Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Location: Busan (1997-2008) Canada 2008 -

PostPosted: Thu Aug 27, 2009 4:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ok...thats 90 000 out of 6 billion people.....

Then consider where the deaths are more likely to occur and who is more likely to die from this strain of flu.

Now clean your shorts and calm the heck down... Laughing

Drop a brick? Ahhh sorry but no.

Take normal precautions against seasonal flu in the fall....bingo.
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Moldy Rutabaga



Joined: 01 Jul 2003
Location: Ansan, Korea

PostPosted: Thu Aug 27, 2009 6:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Smoking (estimated): 443,000 a year in the USA (1.2 M in China).

This of course exaggerates things a little, because smoking sometimes just accelerates the deaths of aged smokers who have other diseases, but in perspective 30-90,000 isn't so bad. Humans are funny people. Our governments freaked out over airplanes flown by terrorists which killed 3,000. To be really cold, that's a pittance.. about the same number which might have choked on hot dogs.

What concerns me more is the statistic that 1.8 M might be hospitalized. Where? In what beds? Where will these patients fit, whether it's the USA or Korea?

Ken:>
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PatrickGHBusan



Joined: 24 Jun 2008
Location: Busan (1997-2008) Canada 2008 -

PostPosted: Thu Aug 27, 2009 7:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Most people who contract H1N1 are not hospitalized.....they are stuck home while they have the flu.
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