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Korean Job Discussion Forums "The Internet's Meeting Place for ESL/EFL Teachers from Around the World!"
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mithridates

Joined: 03 Mar 2003 Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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bacasper

Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 8:29 am Post subject: |
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| ^ Mithri, can you give a quick summary of the reason why please? |
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mithridates

Joined: 03 Mar 2003 Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 8:40 am Post subject: |
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Okay. English is certainly not going to lose its place as the most predominant language for at least the next 50 years (no other language is even close to being able to claim that position) but its rate of expansion just isn't great enough to close the deal, and regionally powerful languages are continuing to thrive. Some examples for Spanish: Miami used to be almost all English, now the majority speaks Spanish. Trinidad and Tobago (official language English) is now aiming to be bilingual. Brazilians will start learning Spanish from elementary school, adding another 40 million people capable of using the language. Spanish isn't going to replace English but a language that is on the path to becoming a universal language simply wouldn't be losing so much territory in its own backyard.
Developed countries also often begin to lose their passion for the language when they realize it isn't really a necessity for prosperity. After a decade or two of trying, Japan doesn't really care anymore that it doesn't speak English.
The best analogy for languages is not that of droplets of water that absorb each other but rather cities. Once a city reaches a certain size it becomes possible to do just about anything you could want to careerwise without ever leaving it, and only at the very top do you see a bleeding from one to the other. Languages are like that when they have a certain population and influence of their own. |
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RufusW
Joined: 14 Jun 2008 Location: Busan
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Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 9:23 am Post subject: |
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Language doesn't funadmentally change a culture. Apart from the fact some languages can't express ideas 'correctly', there's no reason English society can't be transposed into Chinese and not lose its culture. Yes, language is important, but it isn't fundamental to culture. (Confusionism could exist in the English language as well as it can in Korean)
| mithridates wrote: |
| English is certainly not going to lose its place as the most predominant language for at least the next 50 years (no other language is even close to being able to claim that position) but its rate of expansion just isn't great enough to close the deal, |
So, English will be the universal language for at least the next 50 years. By then it'll be far beyond all other languages. Regions may well use their own language, but English will be used trans-nationally. What European language will overtake English? Will Chinese become the norm? 50 languages are spoken in India, hundreds in Africa.
Last edited by RufusW on Sun Aug 30, 2009 9:42 am; edited 2 times in total |
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mithridates

Joined: 03 Mar 2003 Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 9:28 am Post subject: |
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| RufusW wrote: |
| mithridates wrote: |
| English is certainly not going to lose its place as the most predominant language for at least the next 50 years (no other language is even close to being able to claim that position) but its rate of expansion just isn't great enough to close the deal, |
So, English will be the universal language for at least the next 50 years. By then it'll be far beyond all other languages. Regions may well use their own language, but English will be used trans-nationally. What European language will overtake English? Will Chinese become the norm? 50 languages are spoken in India, hundreds in Africa. |
Who said any language will take its place? What we're headed for is a deadlock. English will stay at the top but will never quite close the deal, regionally strong languages will become stronger, and eventually it will become apparent that there is no victor in the contest.
As for this:
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| Language doesn't funadmentally change a culture. |
That's not what you said. Here it is again.
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| A language doesn't really have any effect on a culture |
Now that you've rephrased the statement it makes more sense. True, it doesn't fundamentally change a culture. The Gagauz are Christian Orthodox for example. |
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RufusW
Joined: 14 Jun 2008 Location: Busan
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Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 9:33 am Post subject: |
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There may be deadlock, but imagine 100 years in the future. Someone from Africa will truly want to communicate with someone from China about the latest Anime from Japan. What language will they use to communicate? They might rely on translation, but the bigger possibility is that they will have already learnt a universal language, English (as with the Swedes who speak perfect English now).
Unfortunately with Gloablization languages do fade out.
I'll just add: the internet should become more and more important and requires a universal text language. Probably voice/text computer translations will become perfect within 10 years; but if not, English will be pushed to the top in this regard as well.
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| mithridates wrote: |
| That's not what you said. ... |
Same same, language is secondary to the actual cuture.
Last edited by RufusW on Sun Aug 30, 2009 9:44 am; edited 1 time in total |
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mithridates

Joined: 03 Mar 2003 Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 9:43 am Post subject: |
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| RufusW wrote: |
| They might rely on translation, but the bigger possibility is that they will have already learnt a universal language, English (as with the Swedes who speak perfect English now). |
A Scandinavian knowing perfect English is about as impressive as a Korean knowing perfect Japanese in 1900. Definitely not representative of the rest of the world.
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| Unfortunately with Gloablization languages do fade out. |
This is a myth, extrapolated from the deaths of either the tiniest of languages, or those that have been forcibly removed through oppression. In all other cases even quite small languages thrive. See Welsh for an example of this (spoken by 18.% of the population in 1991, then 20.5% in 2002, then 21.7% in 2004). Hebrew was also dead until it was revived and now it's spoken by 7 million. Basque is growing. Catalan is doing great. For some reason those that claim that languages simply cannibalize each other would see these as exceptions when really they are the rule in any country where people are interested in keeping their language and aren't prohibited from doing so.
Like I said, the city analogy is the best way to look at languages. Tiny towns based on one industry can die out, and large cities under siege can be destroyed. In all other cases though, achieve a certain size and influence and it will be fine.
Last edited by mithridates on Sun Aug 30, 2009 9:50 am; edited 1 time in total |
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RufusW
Joined: 14 Jun 2008 Location: Busan
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Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 9:50 am Post subject: |
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You're underestimating capitalism and globalisation. With technology we become closer and closer. The prime instrument is the internet - where a huge majority of our business will be done in the future. Globalisation creates a need to understand - but more importantly experience - other cultures. It's impossible to do this without a universal language. It's a prerequisite of development.
In the 'future' that I mentioned, a large proportion of the world's population would be well educated (at least to current European standards). Consequently, you could presume they'd be able (yes, like the Swedes) to learn another language at 8 years+.
Every single person that speak Welsh also knows English... probably :) Keep your own language by all means - but you can't avoid the necessity of learning a universal language... be it Chinese, computer programming, or English.
Last edited by RufusW on Sun Aug 30, 2009 9:57 am; edited 2 times in total |
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mithridates

Joined: 03 Mar 2003 Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 9:52 am Post subject: |
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| RufusW wrote: |
| You're underestimating capitalism and globalisation. With technology we become closer and closer. The prime instrument is the internet - where a huge majority of our business will be done in the future. Globalisation creates a need to understand - but more importantly experience - other cultures. It's impossible to do this without a universal language. It's a prerequisite of development. |
Ah yes, the internet, where English is rapidly losing ground.
http://www.internetworldstats.com/stats7.htm
English used to be up near 40%, now it's below 30%. Please start providing sources for your claims.
On Welsh: yes, they all speak English. But if larger languages wipe out smaller ones, why can't the English language in the country of its origin stamp out a tiny language like that? Pretty poor performance for a supposedly cannibalistic entity as many would have us believe. |
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RufusW
Joined: 14 Jun 2008 Location: Busan
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Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 9:57 am Post subject: |
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That doesn't undermine my point that the internet requires a universal language. Maybe it will be Chinese - it should represent the largest language population on earth (that may be Chinese) - but I'd expect English is easier and currently top as you say and therefore more likely to be adopted.
| mithridates wrote: |
| if larger languages wipe out smaller ones, why can't the English language in the country of its origin stamp out a tiny language like that? Pretty poor performance for a supposedly cannibalistic entity as many would have us believe. |
Give it time.... |
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mithridates

Joined: 03 Mar 2003 Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 10:03 am Post subject: |
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| RufusW wrote: |
| That doesn't undermine my point that the internet requires a universal language. Maybe it will be Chinese - it should represent the largest language population on earth (that may be Chinese) - but I'd expect English is easier and currently top as you say and therefore more likely to be adopted. |
What the...no it doesn't. Programming maybe, not the internet.
Edit: case in point - someone in Moldova just came to Page F30 a minute ago doing a search for гагаузия новости (Gagavuzia news) using Google's service that translates a Russian search term into English, does a search, then turns it back into Russian. No English required.
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| if larger languages wipe out smaller ones, why can't the English language in the country of its origin stamp out a tiny language like that? Pretty poor performance for a supposedly cannibalistic entity as many would have us believe. |
Give it time.... |
Oh, come on. When you have a new generation of children learning a language it then takes nearly a century for them and their effects to die out. Languages only die when the only native speakers are old. Welsh isn't going anywhere. |
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RufusW
Joined: 14 Jun 2008 Location: Busan
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Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 10:22 am Post subject: |
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You didn't read my (edited) posts. I said technological translation may well overcome problems with universal communication. Individual voice translators may mean I can speak Chinese by simply talking into a microphone. Translation should become perfect in 100 years, so yes, this may save minority languages.
However, disregarding technology... worldwide communication requires a dominant universal language.
Welsh may not be going anywhere.... but as I said, they all know English. In an educated society it's totally possible to be bilingual (yes, the Swedes again).
Capitalism (and de facto gloablisation) is about increasing returns to scale. Efficiency is hugely important - a global language (disregard the technological aspect) is hugley more effiecient. Ergo, capitalism/gloablisation will tend towards a single language. Easier for business but also cutlural interaction as a side product.
Furthmore, any translation loses some meaning if it's not accurate. In a capitalist (or hyper-globalised) society, efficiency (true meaning) is crucial. There is a reward for both individuals understanding a common language - ergo, people will be inclined to learn a common language. Maybe Chinese, maybe English.
Last edited by RufusW on Sun Aug 30, 2009 10:31 am; edited 2 times in total |
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mithridates

Joined: 03 Mar 2003 Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 10:25 am Post subject: |
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| RufusW wrote: |
| Welsh may not be going anywhere.... but as I said, they all know English. In an educated society it's totally possible to be bilingual (yes, the Swedes again). |
You were talking about languages fading out. That's what I was addressing. Not bilingualism.
| Quote: |
| Capitalism (and de facto gloablisation) is about increasing returns to scale. Efficiency is hugely important - a global language (disregard the technological aspect) is hugley more effiecient. Ergo, capitalism/gloablisation will tend towards a single language. Easier for business but also cutlural interaction as a side product. |
Once again unsourced. Anyway, it's time for bed now and I enjoyed the discussion, but you haven't provided a single shred of supporting evidence for anything you've written here. |
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RufusW
Joined: 14 Jun 2008 Location: Busan
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Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 10:29 am Post subject: |
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What does it matter if they speak Welsh if they all speak English - unfortunately it basically becomes a hobby.
Ya, it's a logical argument, relying on logic to try and predict the future. I'm not prepared to source simple economic facts... but if you really really want me to.....just say. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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Posted: Sun Aug 30, 2009 11:04 am Post subject: |
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Rufus,
You've lost me. Your argument has become rather convoluted. What are you claiming? That languages are dying out? And that English will become even more important than it is now?
In the case of the latter, I think Mithridates has illustrated that is simply not the case, and is asking for you to provide any info that backs up your case. |
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