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Sergio Stefanuto
Joined: 14 May 2009
Location: UK
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 Posted: Fri Sep 11, 2009 5:44 pm Post subject: |
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A generation ago, the factory floor was bound by four walls and usually by national borders too. Today, a product might be designed by a team in Bristol and Bangalore, have raw materials from South Africa, Peru and Thailand, and then be assembled in Slovakia or Taiwan, from where it will then be shipped around the world. This has been made possible by dramatic reductions in trade and investment barriers, and revolutionary changes in communications and transport, which have unleashed a truly global division of labour, specialisation and exchange.
Take the iPod. It begins life in Apple�s design lab in California. Components from Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, and Japan are then assembled in China, before the finished product is shipped around the world. The biggest winner from each iPod sold is Apple because they add the most value through design and marketing. The Chinese, who manufacture almost everything, actually add the least value.
This new commercial reality demands policies that welcome imports and foreign investment and that minimise regulations or administrative obstacles � all based on misconceptions about some vague or ill-defined �national interest.�
The only stimulus package that will work is removing trade barriers.
http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/ |
That's capitalism. The creation of moral hazards, and then printing money and giving it away to those failed businesses, is capitalism in the same way that creationism is science. |
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RufusW
Joined: 14 Jun 2008
Location: Busan
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| Posted: Sat Sep 12, 2009 10:32 am Post subject: |
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| [blah] |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2009 8:42 pm Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
Who knows. But my beef actually isn't with FRB but with the manipulation of money supply. Low interest rates etc. I am looking to park my money in a safe stable place to ride out the next few years. What do I have? 1.5%? A 2 year GIC at ATB Financial is 1.5%. |
Hey, I found a GIC at some bank I've never heard of at 5yr/3.5%.
http://www.ally.ca/en/index.html
Party time. We're all gonna git rich. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2009 8:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Sergio Stefanuto wrote: |
| Quote: |
A generation ago, the factory floor was bound by four walls and usually by national borders too. Today, a product might be designed by a team in Bristol and Bangalore, have raw materials from South Africa, Peru and Thailand, and then be assembled in Slovakia or Taiwan, from where it will then be shipped around the world. This has been made possible by dramatic reductions in trade and investment barriers, and revolutionary changes in communications and transport, which have unleashed a truly global division of labour, specialisation and exchange.
Take the iPod. It begins life in Apple�s design lab in California. Components from Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, and Japan are then assembled in China, before the finished product is shipped around the world. The biggest winner from each iPod sold is Apple because they add the most value through design and marketing. The Chinese, who manufacture almost everything, actually add the least value.
This new commercial reality demands policies that welcome imports and foreign investment and that minimise regulations or administrative obstacles � all based on misconceptions about some vague or ill-defined �national interest.�
The only stimulus package that will work is removing trade barriers.
http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/ |
That's capitalism. The creation of moral hazards, and then printing money and giving it away to those failed businesses, is capitalism in the same way that creationism is science. |
Even better, I buy bags of mixed frozen veggies for .97-.99 cents. 6 servings per bag. By any measure, that product for such a minimal cost is a miracle. |
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Rusty Shackleford
Joined: 08 May 2008
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| Posted: Sun Sep 13, 2009 9:46 pm Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
| Sergio Stefanuto wrote: |
| Quote: |
A generation ago, the factory floor was bound by four walls and usually by national borders too. Today, a product might be designed by a team in Bristol and Bangalore, have raw materials from South Africa, Peru and Thailand, and then be assembled in Slovakia or Taiwan, from where it will then be shipped around the world. This has been made possible by dramatic reductions in trade and investment barriers, and revolutionary changes in communications and transport, which have unleashed a truly global division of labour, specialisation and exchange.
Take the iPod. It begins life in Apple�s design lab in California. Components from Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, and Japan are then assembled in China, before the finished product is shipped around the world. The biggest winner from each iPod sold is Apple because they add the most value through design and marketing. The Chinese, who manufacture almost everything, actually add the least value.
This new commercial reality demands policies that welcome imports and foreign investment and that minimise regulations or administrative obstacles � all based on misconceptions about some vague or ill-defined �national interest.�
The only stimulus package that will work is removing trade barriers.
http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/ |
That's capitalism. The creation of moral hazards, and then printing money and giving it away to those failed businesses, is capitalism in the same way that creationism is science. |
Even better, I buy bags of mixed frozen veggies for .97-.99 cents. 6 servings per bag. By any measure, that product for such a minimal cost is a miracle. |
I've said this in a previous thread and got poopooed and booed out of the forum. But, in a free market the price of many goods tend toward zero. It seems counter intuitive, but it's true. Computer memory/storage is a good example. You can literally get free storage online and a hard drive costs about 50c a gig. Compared to 10 years ago, memory is virtually free. Many goods, if you chart their price over time, tend towards zero, if not actually reaching zero in some cases. |
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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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| Posted: Mon Sep 14, 2009 9:10 am Post subject: |
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| Rusty Shackleford wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
| Sergio Stefanuto wrote: |
| Quote: |
A generation ago, the factory floor was bound by four walls and usually by national borders too. Today, a product might be designed by a team in Bristol and Bangalore, have raw materials from South Africa, Peru and Thailand, and then be assembled in Slovakia or Taiwan, from where it will then be shipped around the world. This has been made possible by dramatic reductions in trade and investment barriers, and revolutionary changes in communications and transport, which have unleashed a truly global division of labour, specialisation and exchange.
Take the iPod. It begins life in Apple�s design lab in California. Components from Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, and Japan are then assembled in China, before the finished product is shipped around the world. The biggest winner from each iPod sold is Apple because they add the most value through design and marketing. The Chinese, who manufacture almost everything, actually add the least value.
This new commercial reality demands policies that welcome imports and foreign investment and that minimise regulations or administrative obstacles � all based on misconceptions about some vague or ill-defined �national interest.�
The only stimulus package that will work is removing trade barriers.
http://www.adamsmith.org/blog/ |
That's capitalism. The creation of moral hazards, and then printing money and giving it away to those failed businesses, is capitalism in the same way that creationism is science. |
Even better, I buy bags of mixed frozen veggies for .97-.99 cents. 6 servings per bag. By any measure, that product for such a minimal cost is a miracle. |
I've said this in a previous thread and got poopooed and booed out of the forum. But, in a free market the price of many goods tend toward zero. It seems counter intuitive, but it's true. Computer memory/storage is a good example. You can literally get free storage online and a hard drive costs about 50c a gig. Compared to 10 years ago, memory is virtually free. Many goods, if you chart their price over time, tend towards zero, if not actually reaching zero in some cases. |
This is because resources themselves (with few exceptions) are abundant and cheap. Technology does all the work. Nearly all the "scarcity" in our system is artificial, and the result of monetary manipulation (ie. fraud). Without the fraudulent Fed fiat monopoly and interest rates, inflation in general, along with the the kinds of ruinous speculation that causes property or stock market bubbles would vanish. |
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jaykimf
Joined: 24 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 7:08 am Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
Who knows. But my beef actually isn't with FRB but with the manipulation of money supply. Low interest rates etc. I am looking to park my money in a safe stable place to ride out the next few years. What do I have? 1.5%? A 2 year GIC at ATB Financial is 1.5%. |
Hey, I found a GIC at some bank I've never heard of at 5yr/3.5%.
http://www.ally.ca/en/index.html
Party time. We're all gonna git rich. |
3.5%! Wow! But you aren't going to get rich at that rate. Too bad you didn't buy some citibank stock about 6 months ago when it was less than $1. You would have quadrupled your money in 6 months. What's that, an 800% ARR ? Good thing I didn't listen to you and did buy some. Of course I didn't get it at the low so I've only doubled my investment. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 7:32 am Post subject: |
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I don't buy insolvent firms, no matter what the short term whims of the schizophrenic Mr. Market are. As WB says, anything I buy I make the assumption that if I were to be stranded on an island for 5 years I know that when I return the firm is still standing and in good health. C is the exact opposite of that. But enjoy your gains, really. I don't short term trade though I was a "professional" trader for a large institution for a while. It just isn't for me, given my risk-adverse disposition.
http://www.accountingobserver.com/PublicBlog/tabid/54/EntryId/12572/Is-The-Fed-On-The-Side-Of-Investors.aspx
The foundation for the rally in the financials is accounting trickery. In the short run you can move with the market. In the long run, you have to accept reality. Citi is broke and becoming more broke with every passing month. |
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jaykimf
Joined: 24 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:11 am Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
I don't buy insolvent firms, no matter what the short term whims of the schizophrenic Mr. Market are. As WB says, anything I buy I make the assumption that if I were to be stranded on an island for 5 years I know that when I return the firm is still standing and in good health. C is the exact opposite of that. But enjoy your gains, really. I don't short term trade though I was a "professional" trader for a large institution for a while. It just isn't for me, given my risk-adverse disposition.
http://www.accountingobserver.com/PublicBlog/tabid/54/EntryId/12572/Is-The-Fed-On-The-Side-Of-Investors.aspx
The foundation for the rally in the financials is accounting trickery. In the short run you can move with the market. In the long run, you have to accept reality. Citi is broke and becoming more broke with every passing month. |
You don't want to take any risk. That's fine. Be happy with your 3.5%. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:17 am Post subject: |
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jay, it takes no genius to have figured that Citigroup would have gone up from $1/share, especially when the gov't decided to step in. If I weren't a broke grad student, I would have certainly bought the stock (and sold it by now).
Question is: do you still own it? If so, why? |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 8:37 am Post subject: |
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| jaykimf wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
I don't buy insolvent firms, no matter what the short term whims of the schizophrenic Mr. Market are. As WB says, anything I buy I make the assumption that if I were to be stranded on an island for 5 years I know that when I return the firm is still standing and in good health. C is the exact opposite of that. But enjoy your gains, really. I don't short term trade though I was a "professional" trader for a large institution for a while. It just isn't for me, given my risk-adverse disposition.
http://www.accountingobserver.com/PublicBlog/tabid/54/EntryId/12572/Is-The-Fed-On-The-Side-Of-Investors.aspx
The foundation for the rally in the financials is accounting trickery. In the short run you can move with the market. In the long run, you have to accept reality. Citi is broke and becoming more broke with every passing month. |
You don't want to take any risk. That's fine. Be happy with your 3.5%. |
No. 3.5% is for my emergency fund. My in case shit money.
I invest outside of my in case shit fund though it is a much smaller amount. Right now, I need to find a place to park money where all the built up systemic risks can't touch it. A simple savings account won't suffice. |
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jaykimf
Joined: 24 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 9:15 am Post subject: |
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| bucheon bum wrote: |
jay, it takes no genius to have figured that Citigroup would have gone up from $1/share, especially when the gov't decided to step in. If I weren't a broke grad student, I would have certainly bought the stock (and sold it by now).
Question is: do you still own it? If so, why? |
Yes I still own it because I believe it will go up even more. It may take several years to work through its current problems, but ultimately I believe it will survive. If it succeeds in turning itself around, in 5 years it could well be a $50 stock. If it doesn't survive and I lose the whole amount, the relatively small amount of my portfolio that I lost on C should be more than offset by the gains by the other stocks I bought about the same time--Bank of america up about 80%, Barclays almost tripled, Chase up 35% and USB and GE flat so far. Do you think all of those are going to broke too? Even if they do, the whole lot is just a small % of my portfolio. The market as a whole is up about 50%. Do you think the entire market is going to go bankrupt too? Citibank and the other banks are a calculated risk. At the prices they were selling at, the potential returns far outweigh the chump change prices they were selling at. The market was dominated by fear and panic and the possibility of the imminent collapse of the entire system. I believe the economy and market will recover. I don't believe the end of the world is at hand.What we had was a buying opportunity like we very rarely ever get. Considering the recent runup, the short term prospects don't look particularly promising. In the long term , the prospects are excellent if you believe the economy will recover (as I do). I am not a short term trader. I'm a buy and hold investor. I've bought and now I'm holding.The sun also rises. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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jaykimf
Joined: 24 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 11:05 am Post subject: |
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Do you ever watch poker? Do you understand what they mean by pot odds? The cards have all been dealt and all you have is a pair of dueces. You have maybe a 10% chance of winning. Somebody bets $5,000. Do you call or fold? If there is already a million in the pot, you should call. You put up $5,000 for a chance at 1 million. Probably you will lose, but in 100 hands you might win about 10 times, more than making up for the 90 losses. It's not just about the probability of winning (or of Citibanks surviving), you have to factor in the cost of the bet versus the potential return. I think the pot odds favor citibank. I might lose on citibank but I expect to more than make it up on similar bets that do pay off. Its a calculated risk. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Wed Sep 16, 2009 11:35 am Post subject: |
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I suspect that virtually every single holder of C is using the equity markets as a casino, like you. The HAL-bots are pumping it up and the brokers and making their calls dumping on their Fast Money watching clients. C is an insolvent firm and at some point one person walks away from the table with all the chips. Just like in a casino, the casino wins.
So yes. I know what a calculated risk is. I also know what a gamed market is. |
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