Korean Job Discussion Forums

[fermentation]

I like to study military history and tactics for fun, and as a citizen of South Korea who has to "contribute" to the defense of my nation agains the Norks, I like to think about how a new Korean War would play out. I think it will be a fun discussion for military history fans or people with knowledge of battlefield strategy/tactics.

So if North Korea uses military means to conquer South Korea, will they succeed?

My short answer is no because North Korea can only think of succeeding if they use a blitzkrieg type assault to quickly overwhelm ROK and US forces before reinforcements from the US arrive (the US promises to send 690,000 men if South Korea is ever attacked) and in a prolonged war, the Norks cannot hope to compete with the industrial capacity and larger population of the South.

Even if they do succeed, the US and other allies will likely try to take back South Korea and bomb the North into oblivion. But I don't think that will matter because they won't come close to taking over the entire peninsula in the first place.

[smartwentcrazy]

A contemporary showdown between the North and South would not mimic the conventional style of warfare seen during WWII or the Korean War. With today's technology and weaponry, the North would be hard-pressed to even cross the 38th parallel. Satellite imaging, long range missile technology, 24-hour nuclear submarines, etc. would neutralize/discourage any conventional means of attack by the North. Not saying that it wouldn't happen, I'm just suggesting it would be highly unlikely given the amount of casualties the North would surely sustain under the current modes of warfare. The US/ROK would see the mobilization of Northern forces before they could mount any 'surprise' attack onto the South, giving ample amount of time for counter-measures.

[5600]

Sure, to an extent. They have an assortment of missles aimed at Seoul and if only one made it through the anti-missle defense network that the ROK/US military have then it would do some damage. There are a significant number of N.K. "commandos" in the vicinity of the DMZ area near Panmunjon that are capable of causing a bit of aggravation to the boys at the DMZ. However, the thing is they do not have the resources to sustain any lengthy attack. I do not think the will of the people will alone do the trick. The infrastructure of the north isn't up to speed. Their equiptment isn't state-of the-art. Plus the guy on the ground isn't in the best of moods either.

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2792.htm#defense

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/dprk/missile/index.html

[storysinger81]

Succeed at what? They wouldn't win a war, but they could cause a crapload of damage by trying the blitzkreig style assault. It would be horrible.

[hellofaniceguy]

I voted yes...the north would obviously get a jump on the south and would be strong at the start...they have a million man army! Even a half million soldiers marching on Seoul could not be stopped at the start of a war. It would take the US a few weeks to build up their defenses to a good level...but...if the north starts moving man power toward the DMZ...the south would known that something is up but they don't have enough man power to repel an initial attack. Now, if China helps the north like they did before....the south is gone and the US could do nothing unless the world allies help.

[smartwentcrazy]

[fermentation]

[Mr. Pink]

Interesting discussion.

I don't think the North would try to invade. There are the reasons posted above. The technological might of the US is just too great at the moment. I think 1mil men can do some damage, but it sort of reminds me of the old fighting style of the 19th century going against modern machine guns at the beginning of WWI. There was no way to compete with those guns in the old fighting fashion. Having an army of 1 million people isn't necessary in today's technological world.

Hell, the US could send a bunch of drones in and take down a big chuck of that army...

[Xuanzang]

There`s always the half joke that the Northerners would smell samgyopsal and all the meat and just surrender. I could see defections en masse happening.

[fermentation]

[fermentation]

[Privateer]

No, they can't win, but they can certainly fry all of us living in Seoul.

[Steelrails]

[fermentation]

[Mr. Pink]

Another good point is this: NK could not sustain a long battle due to the fact that its oil is imported. I would argue this was one reason that Japan lost WWII to the Americans. If America wasn't interfering with Japan's oil supply, Japan would have had no reason to bomb Pearl Harbor, and thus would not have gotten American into their war.

NK needs oil to run their war machine. No oil=no air support or armored support for all those men.

Another point would be food. Any army needs to eat, and the North is pretty punctual in its famines and need for international food aid.

I agree with a poster above, I could see many of the soldiers coming across and defecting enmass. Once they smell the meat and see the hot Korean women walking the streets of Seoul it would be game over.