Korean Job Discussion Forums

[youtuber]

-a new book I am reading by Jeff Rubin, former Chief Economist for a major bank in Canada (CIBC).

In one part of the book he says that shipping goods in from China will be cost-prohibitive due to ridiculously expensive oil prices in the not too distant future.

He argues that manufacturing and trade will become more regional and local due to the increasing scarcity of oil.

Since China's economy is based on exports to the West, I guess that would mean they are "hooped". I guess that could apply to Korea and Japan as well.

It seems entirely plausible, but quite opposite of all of the Rise of China media coverage that I hear every day.

[reactionary]

That's an interesting idea. I guess it might be in China's interest to start looking into alternative fuel sources.

[youtuber]

Yeah that would make sense, but he also argues that there really is no viable alternative energy source to oil that is on the horizon.

He thinks:

Coal - too polluting for today's policies

Electric - current infrastructure is totally insufficient. And natural gas to run the power plants is in short supply as well. Also, battery technology has a long ways to go

Nuclear - too unstable and unpredictable

Ethanol - impractical due to large energy inputs to produce a fuel that yields a comparatively small energy output

Wind/Solar - technology still has a long ways to go.

So I guess he is saying that the oil will run out faster than we will create a new technology that will replace all of the oil-driven combustion engines.

[Joe666]

youtuber wrote:

[Rusty Shackleford]

Oil will never ever run out. That is silly. It will become uneconomical to burn for transport at some point, however. You will probably be surprised at how quickly some other alternative emerges once this happens. Likely, whatever the alternative is, will need some time to achieve economies of scale in distribution and production. When people see that there is a buck to be made in finding a way to provide that new fuel cheaply and to a wider market, they will pile in. Likely, it will be a transition rather than one day we wake up and there is hydrogen (or some such) at the gas pumps instead of petroleum.

Of course this theory doesn't sell as many books as the doom and gloom monging style theories. Which is why you see the shelves lined with peak oil treatises (which doesn't seem to be a big issue right now, odd) and not sound logic. Because logic is always boring.

[Moldy Rutabaga]

Part of Alvin Toffler's Third Wave and Tom Friedman's writings all predict that the future will be one of many different energy sources rather than one magic bullet.

Toffler also predicts local factories which will produce made-to-fit clothes and customized goods. This would indeed shrink China's export markets, although they may have enough financial and IT clout in 20-50 years to bounce back.

[youtuber]

[youtuber]

[mises]

[mises]

[youtuber]

Consider the fact too that Dubai is BURNING OIL TO PRODUCE ELECTRICITY.

It doesn't hurt them in the short run though. This just drives up the price of the world price of oil due to ever-decreasing supply.

Also, the tar sands in Alberta used to be considred unfeasable. A huge amount of energy is required to gain a smaller amount of energy in the form of oil. Plus the weather is like Siberia up there. Why are they suddenly ramping up production there and why is the rest of the world (France, Norway, China) buying up property in the Tar Sands? Because there is nowhere else to go...

Relatively cheap natural gas allows for oil sands to produce. But what happens when the price of natural gas increases?

[Jeonmunka]

The problem is in re-constructing engines and things - I mean, you have a jet engine that works on certain principles and may not work well with any other kind of energy fuel.
In this way there is going to be a lot of shake-up in society. Who is going to get to fly?
When you want to leave Korea maybe you will have to book one year in advance ... and it might not be an airplane ... might be an airship that takes you.

[Joe666]

Here's an indirectly related thought - Stop reproducing people!! WTF!!! There are toooooooooooooo many humans on this planet. Financial woes seem to have slowed this problem a little bit, but people need to seiously thing about contraception!!!

[youtuber]

Haha yup.

But people in the US, Canada, and Australia pollute more than anyone else (per capita).

Maybe all we need is to just muzzle our energy sucking snouts (I am Canadian by the way).

[mistermasan]

don't underestimate the chinese desie to make money. their central gov't doesn't mess around. coal burnign cargo ships? why not? with sails? that take a slower path to Norht America better utilizing ocean currents?