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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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 Posted: Mon Nov 30, 2009 9:35 pm Post subject: |
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Why is he always called a "brilliant economist" every time he is mentioned? Apparently, one has to increase 15fold the suicide rate in every country one consults for and then lose billions of dollars from a trust fund to be considered brilliant. Oh, and it helps to be directly behind and/or connected to every single stupid financial regulatory blunder the US government has done in the last 20 years? Maybe if he destroys the US currency we'll elevate him to Einstein v. 2.0.
Krugman (who was hired by Benny and is a close personal friend of Larry..funny how those three form a perfect circle) says Summers knows about business cycles. Holy jumping jesus would I (and recent history) disagree with that. |
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jaykimf
Joined: 24 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 11:49 am Post subject: |
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| Rusty Shackleford wrote: |
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| Yes, the recession is probably over in a technical sense...... |
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| Historically, financial crises have typically been followed not just by severe recessions but by anemic recoveries; it�s usually years before unemployment declines to anything like normal levels. |
Here's an idea. Why not try something different rather than the same old policies that havn't worked the past dozen or so times. In 1920 the Federal govt did nothing to combat 10% unemployment and it took less than 18 months to emerge from that recession.
So, he follows that up with this.
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| And all indications are that the aftermath of the latest financial crisis is following the usual script. |
How dense can you be?
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So it�s time for an emergency jobs program.
How is a jobs program different from a second stimulus? It�s a matter of priorities. The 2009 Obama stimulus bill was focused on restoring economic growth. It was, in effect, based on the belief that if you build G.D.P., the jobs will come. That strategy might have worked if the stimulus had been big enough � but it wasn�t. |
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So our best hope now is for a somewhat cheaper program that generates more jobs for the buck. Such a program should shy away from measures, like general tax cuts, that at best lead only indirectly to job creation, with many possible disconnects along the way. Instead, it should consist of measures that more or less directly save or add jobs. |
How much did each job from the first stimulus cost? I wouldn't imagine they were "cheap".
I could go on. The man is literally insane. How can someone be so oblivious to reality? I think this term is stupid, but if someone were to be "willfully ignorant", it would be this guy. |
Hmm, who should I believe? A Noble prize winning economist or young Rusty Shackleford, a poster on Dave's ESL cafe? I'll have to think about that. No wait , Rusty went to a school that taught him critical thinking. Asserting that someone you disagree with is literally insane or an imbecile and dunce, now that is critical thinking at its finest. Your school did you well Rusty. In one fell swoop you've demolished the arguments of a noble prize winner. Congratulations Rusty, you win. |
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jaykimf
Joined: 24 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 11:57 am Post subject: |
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"Even with the losses, Rothenberg said, the cash strategy has earned Harvard returns averaging 8.9 percent over the past 10 years. He and other university officials say the cash pool is still ahead of where it would have been, if invested more conservatively all along." |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 11:59 am Post subject: |
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| I don't know what a Nobel means other than a handful of Swedes found reason to like you. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 12:02 pm Post subject: |
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| jaykimf wrote: |
"Even with the losses, Rothenberg said, the cash strategy has earned Harvard returns averaging 8.9 percent over the past 10 years. He and other university officials say the cash pool is still ahead of where it would have been, if invested more conservatively all along." |
The fun fact here is at Summers was on both ends. He:
1) helped build the system that collapsed and
2) managed the portfolio that collapsed because of the system he helped build collapsed.
I want to see what the alternative portfolio (conservative) would have been. Lots of people made hoards of money during the boom and collapse. |
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jaykimf
Joined: 24 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 12:16 pm Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
| jaykimf wrote: |
"Even with the losses, Rothenberg said, the cash strategy has earned Harvard returns averaging 8.9 percent over the past 10 years. He and other university officials say the cash pool is still ahead of where it would have been, if invested more conservatively all along." |
The fun fact here is at Summers was on both ends. He:
1) helped build the system that collapsed and
2) managed the portfolio that collapsed because of the system he helped build collapsed.
I want to see what the alternative portfolio (conservative) would have been. Lots of people made hoards of money during the boom and collapse. |
"The strategy paid off handsomely for years, as the endowment reaped big gains, providing Harvard presidents with a checkbook for ambitious efforts. Under Neil Rudenstine, Harvard�s president from 1991 to 2001, cash was heavily invested in the endowment and surged from $290 million to $2 billion. Under Summers, the figure more than doubled again, according to a compilation of the data obtained by the Globe"
"Amid plunging global markets, Harvard would lose not only 27 percent of its $37 billion endowment in 2008, but $1.8 billion of the general operating cash - or 27 percent of some $6 billion invested." |
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Pluto
Joined: 19 Dec 2006
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 12:20 pm Post subject: |
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| jaykimf wrote: |
"Even with the losses, Rothenberg said, the cash strategy has earned Harvard returns averaging 8.9 percent over the past 10 years. He and other university officials say the cash pool is still ahead of where it would have been, if invested more conservatively all along." |
What would the conservative portfolio be? Pure risk-free assets (ie. 10-yr & 5-yr. treasuries). Summers left in 2006 when the yield curve started acting funny and becoming less steep and even downward sloping. Summers should have known better. I'm sure his buddy, Mishkin over at the NY Fed, was writing white papers telling him all was still well. |
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jaykimf
Joined: 24 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 12:21 pm Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
| I don't know what a Nobel means other than a handful of Swedes found reason to like you. |
It means that the handful of Swedes must be crazy too because they gave the prize to someone who is literally insane. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 12:25 pm Post subject: |
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So when the financial sector was booming the fund boomed. Wow! What talent. How'd it do when things got rough? Related, Craig Simpson, a mediocre NHL player, once had a 50-goal season while on Gretzky's wing. Then he wasn't on WG's wing, and he went back to being mediocre.
FFS, who DIDN'T see the crash coming? How could he miss it? Do you know how frustrating this is, Jay? The Serious People are completely unable to see the looming catastrophe of their plans and yet still have credibility when they fail. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 12:26 pm Post subject: |
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| jaykimf wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
| I don't know what a Nobel means other than a handful of Swedes found reason to like you. |
It means that the handful of Swedes must be crazy too because they gave the prize to someone who is literally insane. |
I reckon he got it cause he was an outspoken critic of Bush. The Peace Prize to Hope and Change gives me confidence that I'm right.
I don't think there should be a prize for economics. Unless we can have one for alchemy too. |
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jaykimf
Joined: 24 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 12:51 pm Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
| jaykimf wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
| I don't know what a Nobel means other than a handful of Swedes found reason to like you. |
It means that the handful of Swedes must be crazy too because they gave the prize to someone who is literally insane. |
I reckon he got it cause he was an outspoken critic of Bush. The Peace Prize to Hope and Change gives me confidence that I'm right.
I don't think there should be a prize for economics. Unless we can have one for alchemy too. |
Whatever the reason he got it doesn't change the fact that our young friend Rusty's critical thinking is little more than name calling. I'm sure you are capable of much more intelligent criticism. You can do much better than that. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 1:18 pm Post subject: |
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| It's just a message board. |
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jaykimf
Joined: 24 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 1:22 pm Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
So when the financial sector was booming the fund boomed. Wow! What talent. How'd it do when things got rough? Related, Craig Simpson, a mediocre NHL player, once had a 50-goal season while on Gretzky's wing. Then he wasn't on WG's wing, and he went back to being mediocre.
FFS, who DIDN'T see the crash coming? How could he miss it? Do you know how frustrating this is, Jay? The Serious People are completely unable to see the looming catastrophe of their plans and yet still have credibility when they fail. |
Quite a few people didn't see the crash coming. The market as a whole did not see the crash coming. A good number may have expected some sort of a correction, but relatively few expected a collapse of such magnitude. I can see where it would be frustrating to know that you are right and most of the rest of the world is wrong. That's life buddy. By the way, Jay is my 7 year old son, Kim is his middle name (and my wife's family name) and F is his last initial. He and his brother keep me pretty busy which is why I often don't have time to reply to many of the posts that I'd like to. Time to get ready for work , so that's it for today. |
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jaykimf
Joined: 24 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 1:31 pm Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
| It's just a message board. |
"Krugman is an Idiot"
"No , You're an idiot"
What's the point? Why bother? |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Tue Dec 01, 2009 1:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Quite a few people didn't see the crash coming. |
I shouldn't exaggerate. I knew that a crash in housing and financials was looming but nothing near the extent to which it did. I didn't know (who did) that Citi was leveraged 88-1, BofA 105-1 and RBS 574-1. Who would imagine such incredible insanity. |
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