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10 Looming Geopolitical Disasters
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2009 8:51 am    Post subject: 10 Looming Geopolitical Disasters Reply with quote

A fun topic:

http://www.businessinsider.com/top-10-international-catastrophes-2009-12#israel-attacks-iran-1

Quote:
1) Israel attacks Iran

If Israel attacks, Iran would likely counter by interrupting traffic in the Persian gulf, says Zeihan. The would have "some pretty disastrous consequences in the short and medium term" on oil supplies and prices.

2) Pakistan destabilizes India

Ian Bremmer, president of risk projecting Eurasia Group, says conflict looms: "For the first time in several years, shifting security dynamics could push India and Pakistan toward confrontation."

3) Brazil can't prop up Argentina

Argentina is in such bad financial shape that it will probably be a food importer within five years, says Zeihan. "Through a seeming pathological addiction to bad policies, they've gone from being the world's largest beef exporter and one of the top exporters of corn and wheat to being a beef importer and they're well on their way to falling off the corn and wheat markets as well."

4) Russia and Ukraine cut the pipes

Upcoming Ukrainian elections could cause disruption in European energy supplies and prices -- no matter who wins.

5) Japan collapses

If people are nervous about U.S. debt -- north of 10% of GDP -- that's where Japan was 10 years ago. Indeed, Japan's distinction as the world's most indebted country (some 220% of GDP) means near certain collapse, says Zeihan of Stratfor.

Factor in a rapidly aging and shrinking population and the "chances of ever getting out of their fiscal hole is now nil," says Zeihan. "Sooner or later Japan is going to financially collapse. The specific impact of that we're really not sure of -- a first world country has never collapsed in human history."

6) Mexico runs out of oil

"All of their producing fields are in terminal decline; all of them are failing at some of the fastest rates in the world," says Zeihan. Within 10 years, he predicts Mexico will become a "major" energy importer.

7) U.K. loses its credit rating

In Europe, Britain isn't as bad a Greece, but a serious fiscal crisis is still possible

8 China overextends

The "dominoes of destruction" include huge dollar holdings, reliance on exports, excessive liquidity, inefficient companies, and more.

9) Greece defaults

10) American recovery stalls


Any 2010 predictions? I believe #1,7,9,10 are likely, in some form. Mexico is running out of oil, but we have a few years before the msm figures it out and the herd crashes the gates. China is a long term sure thing, but in the near term (1-3 years) they'll have a severe bust.
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visitorq



Joined: 11 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2009 9:02 am    Post subject: Re: 10 Looming Geopolitical Disasters Reply with quote

Quote:
5) Japan collapses

If people are nervous about U.S. debt -- north of 10% of GDP -- that's where Japan was 10 years ago. Indeed, Japan's distinction as the world's most indebted country (some 220% of GDP) means near certain collapse, says Zeihan of Stratfor.

Factor in a rapidly aging and shrinking population and the "chances of ever getting out of their fiscal hole is now nil," says Zeihan. "Sooner or later Japan is going to financially collapse. The specific impact of that we're really not sure of -- a first world country has never collapsed in human history."

I dunno. I think there are plenty of other major economies that could collapse before Japan (though I think there will be a domino effect regardless of who goes first). Like the US for example... Japan's still got a few trill ($US) stacked away, is one of the largest exporters in the world, and has a massive trade surplus each year (although this has gone way down since the global depression). Japan's financial system is also one of the least transparent around, so they can just keep pretending everything is rosy on that front (while not growing at all), as long as exports can prop them up.

I think I'd be more concerned with a country like the UK right about now...
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ontheway



Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...

PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2009 1:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
3) Brazil can't prop up Argentina

Argentina is in such bad financial shape that it will probably be a food importer within five years, says Zeihan. "Through a seeming pathological addiction to bad policies, they've gone from being the world's largest beef exporter and one of the top exporters of corn and wheat to being a beef importer and they're well on their way to falling off the corn and wheat markets as well."



Why?

It's always the government.

All of the world's social problems are caused by socialism. Evil, stupid, fascist-socialists, along with all the other garden variety of stupid socialists cause all of our problems from pollution to unemployment. But, it's amazing when a government can turn an economic mainstay, an engine of an area's economy into a disaster:
Quote:

Intense government efforts to keep meat affordable through taxes, export restrictions and price controls have enabled Argentines to eat record amounts of beef this year, but the short-term bonanza has come at a very steep cost. With little or no profit left in meat, ranchers are selling out, slaughtering even the female cows needed to maintain their herds.

President Cristina Fernandez, who famously dismissed soy as a "weed," has said her government must protect consumers at a time when booming soy production has taken over 32 million acres (13 million hectares) of grassland once used for ranching.

Her government also has paid huge subsidies for massive feedlot operations where previously grass-fed cattle are fattened on corn and grain.

But it still takes three years from the moment a calf is born for a cut of beef to reach the supermarket, where the price � set weekly by government bureaucrats � is roughly 2 dollars per pound (half kilo), less than the going rate for a pizza that takes minutes to make.

Those low prices have Argentines, already some of the world's biggest beef consumers, practically gorging on steaks. By August of this year, Argentines devoured more than the average body-weight in beef � nearly 165 pounds (73.9 kilos), the most in 15 years, according to the Chamber of Commerce of the Argentine Meat Industry.



This effect of government controls on beef in Argentina is just what we'll see if the US government is allowed to pass any of the fascist-socialist health care bills now in Congress. They will destroy the world's engine of health care. They will destroy the best health care system in the world - bar none.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2009 1:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

'Loom' is a great word. People should use it more often.
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VanIslander



Joined: 18 Aug 2003
Location: Geoje, Hadong, Tongyeong,... now in a small coastal island town outside Gyeongsangnamdo!

PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2009 2:17 pm    Post subject: Re: 10 Looming Geopolitical Disasters Reply with quote

Quote:
8 China overextends

The "dominoes of destruction" include huge dollar holdings, reliance on exports, excessive liquidity, inefficient companies, and more.

By far the biggest impact of any of the looming crises as this one is less short term, its effects more lasting and damaging.

The degree of control China has over the value of the u.s. dollar is staggering, but as long as they are focusing on exports to America the currency markets won't crash.
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eIn07912



Joined: 06 Dec 2008
Location: seoul

PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2009 11:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
5) Japan collapses

If people are nervous about U.S. debt -- north of 10% of GDP -- that's where Japan was 10 years ago. Indeed, Japan's distinction as the world's most indebted country (some 220% of GDP) means near certain collapse, says Zeihan of Stratfor.

Factor in a rapidly aging and shrinking population and the "chances of ever getting out of their fiscal hole is now nil," says Zeihan. "Sooner or later Japan is going to financially collapse. The specific impact of that we're really not sure of -- a first world country has never collapsed in human history."


Doubtful.

As noted above, the Japanese have a couple trillion dollars stuck back. Push comes to shove, they pay off their credit card bills with their savings account and they're right back on top again. Probably in better shape than the U.S. at that point.

Imagine the amount of U.S. debt China holds now... now double that and add a little more, and that's what Japan held in the 80's.

As soon as their immigration laws weaken (as they've started to) they'll start importing more foreign labor and within 20 years, that population problem will be no more. Of course, to rebuild you have to destroy something. In this case, it will be the homogeneous population Japan has known for centuries. The current working generation in Japan will probably the last that is a majority ethnically "pure" (for lack of a better word.)

I think Japan my literally turn out to be the melting pot of Asia.
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visitorq



Joined: 11 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Fri Dec 11, 2009 2:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

eIn07912 wrote:
As soon as their immigration laws weaken (as they've started to) they'll start importing more foreign labor and within 20 years, that population problem will be no more. Of course, to rebuild you have to destroy something. In this case, it will be the homogeneous population Japan has known for centuries. The current working generation in Japan will probably the last that is a majority ethnically "pure" (for lack of a better word.)

I think Japan my literally turn out to be the melting pot of Asia.

It'll be interesting to see what happens. You may be correct, but I'm not so sure they're going to allow immigration to make up the gap... There would be a lot of opposition to it (there already is actually). There are plenty of migrant workers (Brazilians for example) who work in factories, but they don't really get assimilated, nor can they get citizenship afaik. The population may just end up shrinking. I honestly have no idea how that whole question will play out.
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jvalmer



Joined: 06 Jun 2003

PostPosted: Fri Dec 11, 2009 8:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

visitorq wrote:
eIn07912 wrote:
As soon as their immigration laws weaken (as they've started to) they'll start importing more foreign labor and within 20 years, that population problem will be no more. Of course, to rebuild you have to destroy something. In this case, it will be the homogeneous population Japan has known for centuries. The current working generation in Japan will probably the last that is a majority ethnically "pure" (for lack of a better word.)

I think Japan my literally turn out to be the melting pot of Asia.

It'll be interesting to see what happens. You may be correct, but I'm not so sure they're going to allow immigration to make up the gap... There would be a lot of opposition to it (there already is actually). There are plenty of migrant workers (Brazilians for example) who work in factories, but they don't really get assimilated, nor can they get citizenship afaik. The population may just end up shrinking. I honestly have no idea how that whole question will play out.


Long ago, I remember reading some paper by some Japanese economist. She argued that population shrinkage isn't a bad thing. She believed that eventually the population will stop shrinking and stabilize. With less people she believed that their wouldn't be as much competition for jobs and that most people would be working high quality jobs and sustain their lifestyle. No economic growth or contraction, just a very comfortable lifestyle that the Japanese are used to.

I tried searching for that article, but I can't seem to stumble upon it again. Seems like every expert thinks population growth is the only answer. Wish we could see both sides of the issue.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Fri Dec 11, 2009 12:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Totally. All Japan needs is a Somali Community and the economy will come roaring back. Or, whatever. By the way, they're paying ethnic Japanese Brazillian citizens to leave. We'll have to wait to see if they leap from that to "The melting pot of Asia". Apparently Singapore is in Scandinavia?

The Japan collapse suggestion is, in my opinion, the weakest of the 10. At some point, they'll hit a wall. But not in 2010.
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Fri Dec 11, 2009 8:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My prediction - a destabilization of Pakistan. The Pak Gov extends itself to aid in the war on terror, and ends up getting its populace in revolt.
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endo



Joined: 14 Mar 2004
Location: Seoul...my home

PostPosted: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

robots will solve the declining populations in Japan. just watch
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

endo wrote:
robots will solve the declining populations in Japan. just watch


Robots providing medical care within 15 years? Sorry, I just don't see it.
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endo



Joined: 14 Mar 2004
Location: Seoul...my home

PostPosted: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kuros wrote:
endo wrote:
robots will solve the declining populations in Japan. just watch


Robots providing medical care within 15 years? Sorry, I just don't see it.


but we will see more and more robots in the service industry. other industries will still need a human element, but most other tasks can be mechanized.
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youtuber



Joined: 13 Sep 2009

PostPosted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 12:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem with capitalism is that companies always need to expand. So it is hard for companies to expand with a shrinking population and shrinking workforce. Japan (and Korea) seem to be overpopulated already, so I would venture to guess that they are f-cked in the long run.

As far as robots being a significant part of Japan, well, I doubt it. Hard times and hitting bottom are much more likely to occur before that will ever happen. The AI just isn't there yet.

Canada is the place to be for the future. Huge country, lots of resources, very small population, and a stable government and financial system. The growth potential is massive.

Europe, on the other hand, will probably have nothing to offer, except for a few niche industries. I wouldn't put my money there.
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visitorq



Joined: 11 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Sun Dec 13, 2009 12:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

youtuber wrote:
The problem with capitalism is that companies always need to expand. So it is hard for companies to expand with a shrinking population and shrinking workforce. Japan (and Korea) seem to be overpopulated already, so I would venture to guess that they are f-cked in the long run.

This is true. It's not a problem of capitalism, however, but a problem of interest (usury). All central banking systems modeled on the Bank of England create money out of nothing, as debt, and lend it at interest. This enthralls the entire economy in inflationary debt and interest that can never be paid off. True capitalism (free market capitalism) would be sustainable and not have this problem. Anyway, that's just an aside...

Quote:
As far as robots being a significant part of Japan, well, I doubt it. Hard times and hitting bottom are much more likely to occur before that will ever happen. The AI just isn't there yet.

Improvements in robotics technology make large work forces redundant overtime, and this is a good thing (increased productivity and improved standard of living for everyone). As for androids running around being our servants anytime soon - not likely... I think some people on here just watch too much Star Trek...

Quote:
Canada is the place to be for the future. Huge country, lots of resources, very small population, and a stable government and financial system. The growth potential is massive.

Except that Canada trades something like 80% with the US, and our economy is going down the toilet. Canada cannot escape the effects of this. It is also owned by the same interests for the most part. I agree, Canada has great potential (as does the US) but it will probably not be realized.

Quote:
Europe, on the other hand, will probably have nothing to offer, except for a few niche industries. I wouldn't put my money there.

It won't matter much, if the US goes down the tubes. We have long been the engine of world growth, and nobody can replace us. Not China, or India. If we go down, the global economy will go down with us. Basically this is the plan the globalists (who run everything) have: shut off the resources, bankrupt the middle classes in first world countries, and reduce the population incrementally. Europe will lead the way.
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