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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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 Posted: Fri Dec 18, 2009 4:13 pm Post subject: Some Wise Words on Iran |
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"I hope Iran policy makers in Washington and Europe are reading histories of that world-changing year, 1989. I hope so because the time has come to do nothing in Iran."
Roger Cohen has a very good op-ed piece here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/18/opinion/18iht-edcohen.html?_r=1&ref=global
Buried in the middle is this nugget: "It is not yet open to compromise, despite calls for moderation from prominent clerics and now, it seems, from some senior army officers."
Of course, the smell of gunpowder can be sweet to the nose, the sound of little children screaming as their bodies are torn apart by bombs can be even sweeter, but step by step, the knot is untangling. Be patient. |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Fri Dec 18, 2009 5:16 pm Post subject: |
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| His take may very well be correct. You think Israel will buy it? |
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thecount
Joined: 10 Nov 2009
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| Posted: Fri Dec 18, 2009 5:59 pm Post subject: |
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Ah yes, the time-tested Chamberlain approach.
"Let's wait an see. Maybe the #1 state-sponsor of terrorism, led by a man calling for the complete destruction of a U.N. member-state, doesn't mean anyone harm."
Iran flies in bomb experts. Builds top-secret 3,000-centrifuge facilities hidden in mountains (Qom, anyone?) - the perfect number needed to make a bomb - when it takes 50,000 for a commercial power plant.
Their memos reveal a barely-concealed strategy of deception and delay that has stretched on over seven years just on this particular issue.
This may be "news," but they sure haven't fooled anyone. Or have they?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8412733.stm
I think wiser-words that apply to Iran were said by an old friend of ours:
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| �In this century, when evil men plot chemical, biological and nuclear terror, a policy of appeasement could bring destruction of a kind never before seen on this earth. Terrorists and terrorist states do not reveal these threats with fair notice in formal declarations. And responding to such enemies only after they have struck first is not self defense. It is suicide." |
If Iran obtains the bomb -and they WILL, unless Israel stops them- the consequences go beyond their use of it. It will reveal that the U.S. is willing to ignore violations of countless sanctions and deadlines (Iran has ignored and mocked 5(!!) of Obama's deadlines just this year). It will embolden other countries to develop such weapons to expand their sphere of influence (In a related interview outlining the thought process behind this, Russian "President" Medvedev told Fahreed Zakaria that even if Russia were to go broke, they would give up their nuclear maintenance last, as it provides them with unparalleled influence.).
So, not only do we have other unstable countries interpreting this as a signal for unhampered proliferation, but what if Iran becomes another Pakistan? Pakistan was recently unable to account for a number of their nuclear missiles and is in a state of perpetual governmental chaos, fighting a determined insurgency that has gained ground sometimes up to and beyond their most hardened military bases.
We cannot allow aggressive nations to have these weapons.
We cannot allow unstable nations to pursue weapons.
We cannot afford for chaotic nations to lose their weapons.
The Nuclear proliferation of the cold war was nothing compared to what may happen when nuclear weapons become as ubiquitous as the AK-47.
The chance we take on waiting is based on hope and goodwill, neither of which have any place when dealing with proven liars. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Fri Dec 18, 2009 6:21 pm Post subject: Re: Some Wise Words on Iran |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
Of course, the smell of gunpowder can be sweet to the nose, the sound of little children screaming as their bodies are torn apart by bombs can be even sweeter, but step by step, the knot is untangling. Be patient. |
But also, even if Iran is a nascent, budding democracy with full rights for its citizens by this time next year, that probably will mean nothing for the nuclear program. Iran's people support the Iranian bomb. |
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catman
Joined: 18 Jul 2004
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| Posted: Fri Dec 18, 2009 7:40 pm Post subject: |
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Ah yes, the time-tested Chamberlain approach.
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Should have been used in Iraq. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sat Dec 19, 2009 6:06 am Post subject: |
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| Iran's people support the Iranian bomb. |
Ah, but do they support using it on their neighbors?
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| His take may very well be correct. You think Israel will buy it? |
Gary Sick also agrees, but I forget which site I read his article on.
The regime is cracking and is looking around desperately for a foreign enemy to rally the public against: hence the raid on the Iraqi oil well. At this point, the best policy is ignore gov't provocations and about once a month, Sarkozy, Merkel or Obama (but especially Obama) needs to make a comment in passing about supporting human rights in Iran. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Sat Dec 19, 2009 7:02 am Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
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| Iran's people support the Iranian bomb. |
Ah, but do they support using it on their neighbors? |
You mean autocratic neighbors Saudi Arabia and Egypt, who also could initiate their own programs (only for peaceful use, of course)?
Even if the bomb just sits there, its still a blow against non-proliferation.
I'm not arguing against your suggestion. Its the best option available. But a democratic Iran probably will not solve the nuclear issue. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Sat Dec 19, 2009 12:56 pm Post subject: |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
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| Iran's people support the Iranian bomb. |
Ah, but do they support using it on their neighbors? |
I suspect they would almost unanimously support nuking Israel, which they still do not even recognize as a nation-state, rather, in Edward Said's language, "an alleged entity" and "occupying force," etc.
Once Iran develops and test-detonates a nuclear weapon, then its neighbors will follow the India-Pakistan pathway and rapidly develop and then test-detonate their own. And sooner or later, one of these weapons will find its way into a radical group's hands, who will in turn use it to strike at the alleged entity. 1948, 1956, 1967, 1973, and beyond. They are probing for, waiting for the right tools and the right moment.
In any case, one possible, and I think probable consequence to the advice you call "wise" would be a nuclear-armed Arab Near East.
________
And there is nothing wise in finding a convenient "historical lesson" to apply to this or that current-day problem in foreign relations. It is indeed clich�. "Appeasing aggression," "another Vietnam," and now "it's just like 1989."
Today is 2009, soon to become 2010, and we are not dealing with the Soviets and eastern Europe but the Iranians, an Islamic republic, and the Near East. People should deal with problems as they are and not graft false analogies onto them. This is exactly how we have got into so many problems to begin with. Nice rhetorics, though, for whatever they are worth. And the H.W. Bush administration's response to 1989-1991 was indeed well-considered. But, again, that has nothing at all to do with Iranian affairs today. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sat Dec 19, 2009 1:56 pm Post subject: |
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You mean autocratic neighbors Saudi Arabia and Egypt, who also could initiate their own programs (only for peaceful use, of course)?
Even if the bomb just sits there, its still a blow against non-proliferation.
I'm not arguing against your suggestion. Its the best option available. But a democratic Iran probably will not solve the nuclear issue. |
I had Israel in mind, not Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
Yes, it is a blow against non-proliferation, but so was the acquistion of the bomb by India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea. I think it's less important to prevent Iran from getting nukes than it is to create a space for them to pry themselves loose from fundamentalism. My reading tells me the goal of the dissidents is to have a 'normal' nation that respects human rights. That alone would be a major improvement in that part of the world. Once they start to open up, they'll be a lot more likely to avoid funding violent groups, etc. There could be some positive spill-over in both Iraq and Afghanistan, just to mention two places.
Meanwhile, "TEHRAN, Iran � After months of denials, Iran acknowledged Saturday that at least three people detained in the country's postelection turmoil were beaten to death by their jailers.
The surprise announcement by the hard-line judiciary confirmed one of the opposition's most devastating and embarrassing claims against authorities and the elite Revolutionary Guard forces that led the crackdown after June's disputed presidential vote.
There was no immediate public reaction from the opposition, but some activists asserted that authorities under pressure over abuse claims were merely seeking to punish low ranking staff while shielding senior level officials who the opposition says are most to blame."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ml_iran_elections
Since the regime is only hanging on to power through repression, this can only be cold water in the face of the Basiji.
Up-date on the oil well thing:
AP is reporting: "It was not clear, however, whether the Iranian forces who seized the well late Thursday night were still there...Army Gen. Ray Odierno, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, told reporters that the Iranian forces had withdrawn from the oil well as of Saturday morning. But an oil worker at the field said five Iranians remain inside the well, and the Iranian flag still flew above it...It was not clear as well what kind of Iranian forces had been at the well. An Iraqi official and an eyewitness described them as soldiers. The Iraqi government spokesman described them only as armed men."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iraq |
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mithridates
Joined: 03 Mar 2003
Location: President's office, Korean Space Agency
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| Posted: Sat Dec 19, 2009 8:21 pm Post subject: Re: Some Wise Words on Iran |
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| Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
"I hope Iran policy makers in Washington and Europe are reading histories of that world-changing year, 1989. I hope so because the time has come to do nothing in Iran."
Roger Cohen has a very good op-ed piece here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/18/opinion/18iht-edcohen.html?_r=1&ref=global
Buried in the middle is this nugget: "It is not yet open to compromise, despite calls for moderation from prominent clerics and now, it seems, from some senior army officers." |
Roger Cohen is pretty much always right about Iran. Doing next to nothing after the election BTW was the best way to empower the opposition. If the US had stepped in right away and said something to the effect of Mousavi is the real president and we stand behind the protesters 100% they would have been painted as western puppets straight away. Khamenei still tried, but he came out looking like an idiot when he tried to make the case that somehow a protest involving hundreds of thousands to a few million around the country was orchestrated by the CIA, and the most evil country out there...the United Kingdom of course. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Wed Dec 23, 2009 2:33 am Post subject: |
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Here is an absolutely awesome video called "The Last Goodbye to Ayatollah Montazeri". It should convince any skeptics out there that revolution in some form is coming.
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/12/the-surging-green-wave.html
More from Gary Sick:
"There was something almost mystical about the timing of his death. He died in the first days of Muharram, the mourning month of the Shia religious calendar...and only hours from the winter solstice. The seventh day marking of his death, an important date in Shia Islam, will fall on Ashura, the holiest day of the year. [SUNDAY]
The Green opposition was expected to take advantage of this period to return to the streets, and Montazeri�s death provides an additional incentive. He was the most revered figure in the Iranian religious establishment, a close companion of Khomeini, and a founder of the Islamic Republic who became its most outspoken critic as it transformed itself into a military dictatorship.
His death and instant martyrdom creates a dilemma for the self-proclaimed Islamic regime. It will be difficult to justify massive repression of individuals who are marching in the name of an icon of Iranian Islam during the holiest days of the year.
It is possible that Ayatollah Montazeri will prove to be a more influential figure in death than he was in life."
http://garysick.tumblr.com/post/293740808/throngs-of-mourners-attend-funeral-of-irans-dissident |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sun Dec 27, 2009 2:42 pm Post subject: |
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The Daily Dish (Andrew Sullivan) did some live blogging of the violence in Iran on Sunday. Some stunning videos.
Maybe the most shocking is the clip of a crowd rescuing two men who have just been hanged (from last Tuesday it seems). |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sun Dec 27, 2009 3:52 pm Post subject: |
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Here's the US gov't's reaction:
Statement by National Security Council Spokesman Mike Hammer on violence in Iran
We strongly condemn the violent and unjust suppression of civilians in Iran seeking to exercise their universal rights. Hope and history are on the side of those who peacefully seek their universal rights, and so is the United States. Governing through fear and violence is never just, and as President Obama said in Oslo - it is telling when governments fear the aspirations of their own people more than the power of any other nation.
Haven't seen statements yet from other governments, but they will be similarly worded.
Mousavi's nephew was one of the victims of Sunday's repression.
It's very clear the gov't of Iran is now being kept in place only by repressing its own citizens. Six months after the stolen election and still, every few weeks, the opposition finds a way to get demonstrators back out on the streets.
At some point, some sheep is going to bleat at just the wrong moment and the whole government is going to come tumbling down. My guess is next spring--simply because I can't imagine a revolution starting at the beginning of winter. Too cold. |
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Kimbop
Joined: 31 Mar 2008
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Sun Dec 27, 2009 8:10 pm Post subject: |
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Why The Martyrdom Of Ali Mousavi MattersAli was a seyyed ... of the line of the Imam.
Western analysts do not actually understand the importance of the twin mantles of heredity and scholarship to the Shi'ia. This will start the martyrdom remembrance cycle ... with Ali Mousavi as the Shaheed, the martyr. I predict this is the single event that will crush the tyrant regime of Khamenei and 'Nejad.
Killing a seyyed during Ashura? Gasoline on the fires of revolution. If Qom was not in the Green Wave before this will submerge them.
This is a martyrdom of far greater import than any killings so far....this is an exact parallel to the martyrdom of Imam Ali at the hands of Ummayyads. Husayn ibn Ali famously said he would prefer death to life under tyranny:
"... Don't you see that the truth is not put into action and the false is not prohibited? The believer should desire to meet his Lord while he is right. Thus I do not see death but as happiness, and living with tyrants but as sorrow."
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/12/why-the-martyrdom-of-ali-mousavi-matters.html#more
Clearly the poster feels this is a ('the'?) turning point. We'll see soon enough, I suspect. |
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