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On the other hand
Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue
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 Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 9:22 am Post subject: Is "Eurabia" just a bunch of hogwash? |
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Foreign Policy argues that it is.
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Beyond all the sloppy anecdotal evidence, the Eurabia literature relies on two major false assumptions. The first is demographic. The literature holds that Europe will be Islamic at the end of the century "at the very latest," with Muslim majorities in some European countries "in the foreseeable future," in the words of Bernard Lewis in his 2007 pamphlet, "Europe and Islam." That's because "native populations are aging and fading and being supplanted remorselessly by a young Muslim demographic," Steyn explains in America Alone (2006). "Europe will be semi-Islamic in its politico-cultural character within a generation."
If these books insist so much on the future, it is because current figures are unimpressive. According to the higher range of estimates by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), there are already as many as 18 million Muslims in Western Europe, or 4.5 percent of the population. The percentage is even lower for the 27-country European Union as a whole. The future will certainly see an increase, but it's hard to imagine that Europe will even reach the 10 percent mark (except in some countries or cities). For one thing, as the same NIC study indicates and demographers agree, fertility rates among Muslims are sharply declining as children of immigrants gradually conform to prevailing social and economic norms. Nor is immigration still a major source of newly minted European Muslims. Only about 500,000 people a year come legally to Europe from Muslim-majority countries, with an even smaller number coming illegally -- meaning that the annual influx is a fraction of a percent of the European population.
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But to large majorities of Europe's Muslims, Islam is neither an exclusive identity nor a marching order. Recent poll data from Gallup show that most European Muslims happily combine their national and religious identities, and a 2009 Harvard University working paper by Ronald Inglehart and Pippa Norris demonstrates that in the long term, the basic cultural values of Muslim migrants evolve to conform to the predominant culture of the European society in which they live.
More generally, average European Muslims worry first and foremost about bread-and-butter issues, and to the extent that they are religious, they want to be able to practice religion freely and in decent conditions, not to impose the caliphate. As a 2006 pan-European Pew Research Center study makes clear, "Muslims in Europe worry about their future, but their concern is more economic than religious or cultural," and though there are tensions, these are mostly due to racism, not some grandiose clash of cultures.
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 11:18 am Post subject: |
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| The economist a couple years ago also debunked the idea. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 11:25 am Post subject: |
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People should not be so smug when predicting or stating in negative terms an absolute future certainty.
In any case, On the Other Hand, I have learned enough to know that if Bernard Lewis, John Lewis Gaddis, or Henry Kissinger, to cite but three examples, say X, Y, or Z, we will very soon see a range of forces in Academe and much of the larger media aligned and gunning for them. It really does not matter what they say. They could say "some people look good in black" and it would produce systematic and, at times, bitterly articulated "what they said was absolutely false and in fact is a lie," "is hogwash," "is bunk," etc. denunciations.
This issue in western Europe probably stands roughly analogous to healthcare and immigration in the United States: there will simply be no equitable discussion on the matter.
Again, anyone in 2010 who claims they know exactly and with absolute certainty how the western European population will or will not look in 2100 is full of it. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 11:35 am Post subject: |
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| Who is John Lewis Gaddis? |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 1:39 pm Post subject: |
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Historian of American foreign relations and the cold war, roughly comparable to Bernard Lewis in stature, general respect within govt and general public circles, and in specific academic hatred. Compare:
| John Lewis Gaddis, introducing Cold War, wrote: |
| The world, I am quite sure, is a better place for [the cold war's] having been fought in the way that it was and won by the side that won it...For all its dangers, atrocities, costs, distractions, and moral compromises, the Cold War -- like the American Civil War -- was a necessary contest that settled fundamental issues once and for all. We have no reason to miss it. But given the alternatives, we have little reason either to regret its having occurred. |
| William Blum, introducing Killing Hope, wrote: |
| Is the United States a force for democracy? From China in the 1940s to Iraq today..., the most comprehensive study of the ongoing American Holocaust. |
J. Lewis Gaddis tends to excite academics while W. Blum helps them breathe easier. |
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Adventurer
Joined: 28 Jan 2006
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| Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 4:21 pm Post subject: |
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You have to look at many factors before seeing demographic shifts as a danger. We don't know how the Muslim minority that's mostly Arabic would be like in 90 years. We don't know how the Middle East will be. We don't know if there will finally if there will be a comprehensive peace between the Israelis and Palestinians and reduce the religious cold war that exists out there. I think some people are trying to create panic and an us versus them mentality based on the political and cultural situation that exists. Someone 100 years could have warned about the rising Catholic birthrate in Ireland and how the Irish Catholics would become a danger to the Protestants. The Catholics are about 43% of Northern Ireland, and they seem to be getting along with the Protestants these days and are becoming indistinguishable culturally.
Someone could have predicted certain future wars between France and England before the Anglo-French agreement. It's easy to predic things.
We can't ignore such predictions. |
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Gopher
Joined: 04 Jun 2005
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| Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 5:17 pm Post subject: |
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| ...not some grandiose clash of cultures. |
This is the thing that B. Lewis said in his essay, "The Roots of Muslim Rage," that has set off so many attempts to attack him.
Lewis's critics do not like the political implications that follow his argument, therefore they systematically move to destroy his argument. That is the nature of academic discussion today: everything measured against ideology; and everything that fails the purity test must be destroyed.
I, for one, think Lewis's essay and claims, even if flawed and biased, as is everything, is insightful and thought-provoking, and contains more than a little good information and analysis. |
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ytuque
Joined: 29 Jan 2008
Location: I drink therefore I am!
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| Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 5:52 pm Post subject: |
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| Adventurer wrote: |
You have to look at many factors before seeing demographic shifts as a danger. We don't know how the Muslim minority that's mostly Arabic would be like in 90 years. We don't know how the Middle East will be. We don't know if there will finally if there will be a comprehensive peace between the Israelis and Palestinians and reduce the religious cold war that exists out there. I think some people are trying to create panic and an us versus them mentality based on the political and cultural situation that exists. Someone 100 years could have warned about the rising Catholic birthrate in Ireland and how the Irish Catholics would become a danger to the Protestants. The Catholics are about 43% of Northern Ireland, and they seem to be getting along with the Protestants these days and are becoming indistinguishable culturally.
Someone could have predicted certain future wars between France and England before the Anglo-French agreement. It's easy to predic things.
We can't ignore such predictions. |
Arabs and Islam have a 1400 year history and by studying this, you could ask the question where have these people lived peacefully in the minority? Where have they live peacefully as a majority with minority groups having equal rights?
Perhaps using this as a reference as opposed to the situation of N. Ireland would be a better predictor of the next 100 years. |
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Adventurer
Joined: 28 Jan 2006
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| Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 10:21 pm Post subject: |
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| ytuque wrote: |
| Adventurer wrote: |
You have to look at many factors before seeing demographic shifts as a danger. We don't know how the Muslim minority that's mostly Arabic would be like in 90 years. We don't know how the Middle East will be. We don't know if there will finally if there will be a comprehensive peace between the Israelis and Palestinians and reduce the religious cold war that exists out there. I think some people are trying to create panic and an us versus them mentality based on the political and cultural situation that exists. Someone 100 years could have warned about the rising Catholic birthrate in Ireland and how the Irish Catholics would become a danger to the Protestants. The Catholics are about 43% of Northern Ireland, and they seem to be getting along with the Protestants these days and are becoming indistinguishable culturally.
Someone could have predicted certain future wars between France and England before the Anglo-French agreement. It's easy to predic things.
We can't ignore such predictions. |
Arabs and Islam have a 1400 year history and by studying this, you could ask the question where have these people lived peacefully in the minority? Where have they live peacefully as a majority with minority groups having equal rights?
Perhaps using this as a reference as opposed to the situation of N. Ireland would be a better predictor of the next 100 years. |
That's a good question. Where have they co-existed well with a minority?
In Senegal, the population is 90% Muslim and 10% Christian. That Muslim majority once elected a Protestant president named Leopold Senghor. There are no clashes between the two groups as one hears about in say Egypt. Also, in Syria Christians and Muslims have not had any friction since 1860. That's about 149 years ago. Obviously, there are many divisons between Muslims and Christians, but, obviously, this is not the case everywhere and uniform.
I don't hear of clashes between Albanian Orthodox who are about 30+% of the population and the Muslims. Have you? The Albanians don't bother fighting over religion. In Jordan, the Christian minority is rather secure.
In Germany, Catholics and Protestants haven't clashed in a long, long time while only the 1990s this was done in Northern Ireland. I think it's easy for you to say what you have said because the media doesn't talk about the many exceptions and there are many of them.
In Malaysia some nut cases are upset that Malay Christians call God "Allah" while Muslim Arabs think it's normal for Christians to do so and non-Muslims used then name before Muslims. It's easy to generalize. |
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ytuque
Joined: 29 Jan 2008
Location: I drink therefore I am!
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| Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 1:36 am Post subject: |
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| Adventurer wrote: |
| ytuque wrote: |
| Adventurer wrote: |
You have to look at many factors before seeing demographic shifts as a danger. We don't know how the Muslim minority that's mostly Arabic would be like in 90 years. We don't know how the Middle East will be. We don't know if there will finally if there will be a comprehensive peace between the Israelis and Palestinians and reduce the religious cold war that exists out there. I think some people are trying to create panic and an us versus them mentality based on the political and cultural situation that exists. Someone 100 years could have warned about the rising Catholic birthrate in Ireland and how the Irish Catholics would become a danger to the Protestants. The Catholics are about 43% of Northern Ireland, and they seem to be getting along with the Protestants these days and are becoming indistinguishable culturally.
Someone could have predicted certain future wars between France and England before the Anglo-French agreement. It's easy to predic things.
We can't ignore such predictions. |
Arabs and Islam have a 1400 year history and by studying this, you could ask the question where have these people lived peacefully in the minority? Where have they live peacefully as a majority with minority groups having equal rights?
Perhaps using this as a reference as opposed to the situation of N. Ireland would be a better predictor of the next 100 years. |
That's a good question. Where have they co-existed well with a minority?
In Senegal, the population is 90% Muslim and 10% Christian. That Muslim majority once elected a Protestant president named Leopold Senghor. There are no clashes between the two groups as one hears about in say Egypt. Also, in Syria Christians and Muslims have not had any friction since 1860. That's about 149 years ago. Obviously, there are many divisons between Muslims and Christians, but, obviously, this is not the case everywhere and uniform.
I don't hear of clashes between Albanian Orthodox who are about 30+% of the population and the Muslims. Have you? The Albanians don't bother fighting over religion. In Jordan, the Christian minority is rather secure.
In Germany, Catholics and Protestants haven't clashed in a long, long time while only the 1990s this was done in Northern Ireland. I think it's easy for you to say what you have said because the media doesn't talk about the many exceptions and there are many of them.
In Malaysia some nut cases are upset that Malay Christians call God "Allah" while Muslim Arabs think it's normal for Christians to do so and non-Muslims used then name before Muslims. It's easy to generalize. |
We were discussing Arabs and Islam, and you bring up the Senegalese, Albanians, Malays, and Syrians.
I don't know enough about Senegal to offer an opinion. As for the Albanians, they are hardly a role model for anything.
Ok, you did bring up the Syrians, but they have been governed by a mostly secular dictatorship for the last 40 or so years. After Hafiz Assad ordered the massacre of upwards of 20,000 of the Muslim Brotherhood and their supports back in the early 80's, the Islamists have been well behaved since then. Also, Syria lets the Islamists went their hate towards Israel.
As for those tolerant Malays, they have been firebombing churches the past few days. |
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jhuntingtonus
Joined: 09 Dec 2008
Location: Jeonju
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| Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:18 am Post subject: |
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I think there will be lots and lots of Muslims in Europe, and most countries there will be both Christian and Muslim. Reason? The birth rates are far too low now to support their treasured social support systems for more than 1-3 decades from now.
The minaret thing was an exception, a backlash, something that will be looked back on with bemusement by the end of this decade. They will learn to get along and even like each other. |
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Blockhead confidence
Joined: 02 Apr 2008
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| Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 4:36 am Post subject: |
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| Being a liquid, hogwash is measured by volume, not bunches |
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On the other hand
Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue
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| Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 8:58 am Post subject: |
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| Blockhead confidence wrote: |
| Being a liquid, hogwash is measured by volume, not bunches |
Believe it or not, I actually thought about that after I posted. But saying "a bucket of hogwash", much less "a volume", would have just seemed kind of odd. |
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Adventurer
Joined: 28 Jan 2006
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| Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 1:31 pm Post subject: |
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| ytuque wrote: |
| Adventurer wrote: |
| ytuque wrote: |
| Adventurer wrote: |
You have to look at many factors before seeing demographic shifts as a danger. We don't know how the Muslim minority that's mostly Arabic would be like in 90 years. We don't know how the Middle East will be. We don't know if there will finally if there will be a comprehensive peace between the Israelis and Palestinians and reduce the religious cold war that exists out there. I think some people are trying to create panic and an us versus them mentality based on the political and cultural situation that exists. Someone 100 years could have warned about the rising Catholic birthrate in Ireland and how the Irish Catholics would become a danger to the Protestants. The Catholics are about 43% of Northern Ireland, and they seem to be getting along with the Protestants these days and are becoming indistinguishable culturally.
Someone could have predicted certain future wars between France and England before the Anglo-French agreement. It's easy to predic things.
We can't ignore such predictions. |
Arabs and Islam have a 1400 year history and by studying this, you could ask the question where have these people lived peacefully in the minority? Where have they live peacefully as a majority with minority groups having equal rights?
Perhaps using this as a reference as opposed to the situation of N. Ireland would be a better predictor of the next 100 years. |
That's a good question. Where have they co-existed well with a minority?
In Senegal, the population is 90% Muslim and 10% Christian. That Muslim majority once elected a Protestant president named Leopold Senghor. There are no clashes between the two groups as one hears about in say Egypt. Also, in Syria Christians and Muslims have not had any friction since 1860. That's about 149 years ago. Obviously, there are many divisons between Muslims and Christians, but, obviously, this is not the case everywhere and uniform.
I don't hear of clashes between Albanian Orthodox who are about 30+% of the population and the Muslims. Have you? The Albanians don't bother fighting over religion. In Jordan, the Christian minority is rather secure.
In Germany, Catholics and Protestants haven't clashed in a long, long time while only the 1990s this was done in Northern Ireland. I think it's easy for you to say what you have said because the media doesn't talk about the many exceptions and there are many of them.
In Malaysia some nut cases are upset that Malay Christians call God "Allah" while Muslim Arabs think it's normal for Christians to do so and non-Muslims used then name before Muslims. It's easy to generalize. |
We were discussing Arabs and Islam, and you bring up the Senegalese, Albanians, Malays, and Syrians.
I don't know enough about Senegal to offer an opinion. As for the Albanians, they are hardly a role model for anything.
Ok, you did bring up the Syrians, but they have been governed by a mostly secular dictatorship for the last 40 or so years. After Hafiz Assad ordered the massacre of upwards of 20,000 of the Muslim Brotherhood and their supports back in the early 80's, the Islamists have been well behaved since then. Also, Syria lets the Islamists went their hate towards Israel.
As for those tolerant Malays, they have been firebombing churches the past few days. |
I also brought up Jordan. Jordanians are Arabs. If you are trying to say there is a problem regarding the rights of non-Muslim minorities in some countries, I would agree with that. I brought up non-Arab places as well because Europe also has a sizable Turkish population. Turkey is beginning to show more openness towards its minority while the Greeks are not doing so with their Turkish minority. Tolerance is not only a one-way street. Is banning the building of minartes an example of tolerance? No.
I am concerned about some people in the Islamic world who are too religious and not open to a form of pluralism that allows more people to simply feel comfortable believing in whatever way they want. It's easier to be an atheist, in some ways for a Jordanian Muslim, then for him to choose another religious belief. Bahais feel very uncomfortable in Egypt. In Saudi Arabia, Shiites feel harassed, but that can't be said about the small Shiite minority in Jordan.
There is a kind of hidden ideological fight going on between being a globalized person and being persons stuck with some idea of some pure past. We have to see how things will play out. I observe these things. I've noticed, for example, that Saudi students who come to the US seem rather different than the kind who would have come in say 1990 in many cases. At least, it appears that way, on the surface whatever that means. I still observe that.
I share your concerns, but there are many factors at play here, right? I am sure you can concede that. We should be vigilant while also look at how we can build bridges and encourage moderates. |
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NovaKart
Joined: 18 Nov 2009
Location: Iraq
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| Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 1:51 pm Post subject: |
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| In places as diverse as Russia, the Philippines, Thailand, Indonesia, Nigeria, Egypt and India there have been problems between Muslims and people of other religions and/or the central government. I know there are other reasons for this conflict other than just Muslim intolerance, but it really does make you wonder why Muslims are so often the common denominator. |
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