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The Depression Thread
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Reggie



Joined: 21 Sep 2009

PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 2:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wish our lenders would completely stop. Eventually, it's actually going to screw over their own workers even worse than ours.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 6:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The government is buying the government debt.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ultimate-shell-game-federal-reserve-funds-us-deficit

How does this end? Any ideas?
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bacasper



Joined: 26 Mar 2007

PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2010 11:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Isn't this like charging one credit card payment to another card?
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 5:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

And when that ponzi scheme weakens, Hope and Change has a new idea:

Quote:
Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. investors oppose federal initiatives that would force them to give up control over their 401(k) accounts, the Investment Company Institute said.

...

The U.S. Treasury and Labor Departments will ask for public comment as soon as next week on ways to promote the conversion of 401(k) savings and Individual Retirement Accounts into annuities or other steady payment streams, according to Assistant Labor Secretary Phyllis C. Borzi and Deputy Assistant Treasury Secretary Mark Iwry, who are spearheading the effort.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-01-08/americans-oppose-initiatives-limiting-401-k-choices-ici-says.html

Ok, a simple policy change. We're nationalizing your retirement (forcing the 401k into a T-bill based annuity). Didn't Argentina just do that?

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/5504137/Argentina_seizes_pension_funds_to_pay_debts_Whos_next/
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jaykimf



Joined: 24 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 5:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bacasper wrote:
Isn't this like charging one credit card payment to another card?


No, it's like printing money to pay your debt.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 7:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It is taxation without representation. Each additional unit created diminishes the value of existing units. This, without the explicit consent and direction of the people, via congress. Complexity, secrecy and a towering wall of propaganda keeps the peasants in line.

So, the hope is that they know what they are doing and have a sophisticated understanding of how the economy functions.

Ben was right!

D'oh
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jaykimf



Joined: 24 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 9:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mises wrote:
It is taxation without representation. Each additional unit created diminishes the value of existing units.


mises wrote:
In normal times, I would find the risk of inflation for my idea to be too strong. But we have deflation, so this isn't a problem in the near and medium term.


I'm a little confused about what you think the risk of inflation is. Care to clarify?
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 9:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What does deflation to do a currency? What does QE do to deflation? If you slow deflation, what have you done to the currency? Please, think it through before trying to find an error.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 9:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also, contribute something. The whole peanut gallery thing is obnoxious. If you have an alternative set of assumptions and ideas, let them be known.
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jaykimf



Joined: 24 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 10:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mises wrote:
What does deflation to do a currency? What does QE do to deflation? If you slow deflation, what have you done to the currency? Please, think it through before trying to find an error.


I am not saying there is any error in your position. I am saying I don't understand what you are saying. Please excuse my ignorance. I don't even know what QE is. As for making assumptions, I try to avoid that. Is it really obnoxious to ask you to clearly explain your pronouncements in a way that even an old fart like me can understand? My apologies.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2010 11:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The dollar is down 14% or so since March 5th (DX). My local pub raised prices. Meat and eggs are a touch more expensive lately too. Gas is up. Yet credit contracted by hundreds of billions and house prices are down 40% or so in many areas. Domestic deflation and global commodity inflation? That's the current situation. I guess that's my opinion. The devalued dollar goes to Goldman's et al who throw it into commodities etc.


(The Saturday, Dec 26 ep)
http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.php
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Thu Jan 14, 2010 8:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unexpected to whom?

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Retail-sales-unexpectedly-rb-2844458830.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode

Quote:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Sales at U.S. retailers unexpectedly fell in December as consumer spent less on vehicles and an array of other goods during the holiday shopping month, data showed on Thursday, raising concerns about the durability of the economy's recovery.


http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/u.s.-stocks-surge-back-toward-bubble-territory-401196.html?tickers=dia,spy,qqqq,tlt

Quote:
U.S. Stocks Surge Back Toward Bubble Territory

Nothing like free money and the remembrance of good things past to drive stocks into the stratosphere.

As the latest update of Professor Robert Shiller's cyclically adjusted PE ratio shows, US stocks are now more than 30% overvalued, at 21X earnings. That's more reasonable than the 100%+ overvaluation in 2000, but it's closing in on the level of the three other bubble peaks of the 20th Century: 1901, 1929, and 1966.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/34830451/ns/business-stocks_and_economy
Quote:
WASHINGTON - The White House has abandoned its controversial method of counting jobs under President Barack Obama's economic stimulus, making it impossible to track the number of jobs saved or created with the $787 billion in recovery money.


Can't count negative?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/182246-probability-of-a-crisis-will-build-in-2010?source=hp_wc
Quote:
Probability of a Crisis Will Build in 2010
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Fri Jan 15, 2010 5:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Isn't this nice?

http://rawstory.com/2010/01/wall-streets-payout-145-billion/
Quote:
The 38 largest financial institutions on Wall Street will pay out a total of $145.85 billion in compensation for 2009, an 18 percent increase over 2008 and "slightly more than in the record year of 2007," the Wall Street Journal reports.


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/December-retail-sales-drop-03-apf-3350007934.html?x=0&.v=9
Quote:
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Retail sales fell in December as demand for autos, clothing and appliances all slipped, a disappointing finish to a year in which sales had the largest drop on record.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 6:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

To pad the latest and terrible unemployment numbers, the BLS removed fully 1% of the American labor force.


Americans are coming to their senses:

WSJ:
Quote:
Tom Capasse, a principal at Waterfall Asset Management LLC, a New York-based investor in mortgages, says it�s too late to prevent a �seismic shift� in borrower behavior ... �There used to be a scarlet D on your forehead if you defaulted,� says Mr. Capasse. �Now it�s a badge of honor.�


This is sensible. A loan isn't a moral obligation. It is a business transaction. When it makes business sense to end the contract and take the penalty, you do so. The housing market is entering the next phase of downward prices and more people will walk away as they realize they are underwater. This, plus the alt-a explosion now hitting and the shadow inventory of homes will push house values farther down. This despite the nationalization of the mortgage market.
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Pluto



Joined: 19 Dec 2006

PostPosted: Tue Jan 19, 2010 4:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have reading some of what Seeking Alpha has to say, and it isn't pretty. There is a lot of talk about the coming double dip from the writers at Seeking Alpha. Still, many of the financial pundits in the mainstrema financial media are claiming that we are returning to an economic period of normalcy. I doubt such assertions. For one, the fed, for now, seems commited to ending its quantitative easing program by 1Q's end. What will then happen to all of the mortgage backed securities? We may as well turn them into toliet paper because they will be useless. Although, it isn't the paper, rather what the paper represents that should be troubling. There is an oversupply of about 20m houses throughout the US. Fiscal policy, through Washington's stimuli, Fred, Fan and the rest seem hell bent on propping up housing prices. This charade an't go on forever. the printing presses simply just can't go on ad infinitum and taxpayers can only fork over so much money before the federal government's solvency becomes an issue. So the question is this: At what point do we just let the housing prices fall to where we can get a good understanding of what prices should be? When will the markets clear? Where should I park my money to hedge against the oncoming storm? How painful will all of this be?

http://seekingalpha.com/article/181020-potential-for-double-dip-increases-as-stimulus-fades
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