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Republicans Ascending...?: The Midterm Election Thread

 
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Gopher



Joined: 04 Jun 2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 26, 2010 10:04 pm    Post subject: Republicans Ascending...?: The Midterm Election Thread Reply with quote

Quote:
...danger signs for the Democrats. In one indicator studied closely by both parties ahead of midterm elections, likely voters chose an unnamed Republican candidate by 5 percentage points over the Democrat on a hypothetical congressional ballot.

"So while it's a 5-point lead overall, among the most interested voters, that lead doubles," Bolger says. "And we saw that take effect in Virginia; we saw it took effect in [the] New Jersey gubernatorial race; and we saw it take effect in the Massachusetts Senate race as well."

The poll shows likely voters evenly divided about Obama's job performance: While 49 percent approve, 48 percent disapprove.

And Greenberg's Democrats have to be worried by the fact that by 2-1, voters think the country is on the wrong track.

"It's not hard to understand Massachusetts when you get a poll back like this," Greenberg says. "That tells you a lot about the mood in the country."


Interesting poll and interesting story. A lot can happen between now and November. I wonder where this will end...

NPR Reports
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Tiger Beer



Joined: 07 Feb 2003

PostPosted: Wed Jan 27, 2010 1:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actually, I think more BLUE states SHOULD vote for Republicans, and more RED states SHOULD vote for Democrats.

Generally speaking, Republicans in blue states just aren't extremists....they are very middle ground...same with Democrats in red states.

Plus this will really shake up Massachussets....i.e. Taxassuchets. Having lived in NYC during Guiliani's Mayor years...NYC was a great place to live (note however that I think Guiliani would have been a disaster of a President).

Incidentally, being that MASS already has healthcare...it's been widely-reported that voting in a Republican had NO connection whatsoever to the current healthcare debate - as MASS has almost no stake in the outcome of that whatsoever.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Wed Jan 27, 2010 2:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here at the end of January, the word of the day seems to be anti-incumbency. That could continue, get worse or begin to fade. Who knows at this point? A lot depends on the economy. Something may well happen on the international scene to aggravate or alleviate the administration's reputation.

If the election were to be held next Tuesday, it is pretty certain the Dems would be slaughtered. But if a follow-up election were then to be held a couple of months later, the GOP would be slaughtered. The public is angry at the government because it is not yet ready to accept that it, the public, was complicit in creating this mess. The public is still looking for an easy out.

Obama came into office six months to a year too early.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Wed Jan 27, 2010 1:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The primaries will determine who the candidates are in the fall and the kind of challenge presented to incumbents. Right now, some parts of the Tea Party movement are working within the Republican Party. That may not last.

"The Indiana Republican Party is officially disapproving of remarks by Richard Behney, a Tea Party activist who is seeking the GOP nomination to run against Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh...

"We don't condone this type of rhetoric and feel it is unhelpful in promoting constructive debate," said state GOP chairman Murray Clark, in a statement e-mailed to TPMDC. "We continue to encourage anyone seeking political change to do so through the electoral process and to discuss the issues of the day in a civil manner."

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/01/indiana-gop-chairman-we-dont-condone-senate-candidate-who-called-for-armed-revolution-if-2010-electi.php?ref=fpb

Here is what the Party is objecting to: "That's the beauty of this, folks. We can do it before it gets to guns," said Behney, in praise of the electoral process. "All right, our founders brought out the guns. When they showed up at Lexington and Concord, regular folks, farm boys, doctors, merchant men, and they said you ain't taking our stuff. They stood up to the most powerful army in the world, and they bought our freedom, literally with their blood. And we don't have to do that yet.

"I believe personally, we're at a crossroads. We have one last opportunity. And I believe 2010 is it. All right? And we can do it with our vote. And we can get new faces in, whether it's my face or not, I pray to God that I see new faces. And if we don't see new faces, I'm cleaning my guns and getting ready for the big show. And I'm serious about that, and I bet you are, too. But I know none of us want to go that far yet, and we can do it with our vote."

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2010/01/tea-party-activist-and-senate-candidate-if-we-dont-see-new-faces-im-cleaning-my-guns-and-getting-rea.php

I'm pretty confident that in at least some districts there will be very active third party challenges, which could significantly affect results. Think New York-23. We'll have to wait to see how this shapes up.
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Gopher



Joined: 04 Jun 2005

PostPosted: Wed Jan 27, 2010 2:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Nevada Senate race interests me. Not clear whether the Republicans are reasserting themselves there or H. Reid is simply crashing and burning, leaving the way open to "anyone but Reid," as one slogan there goes...

Quote:
More than half of Nevadans are unhappy with Sen. Harry Reid, according to a new poll commissioned by the Las Vegas Review-Journal. It's the worst "unfavorable" rating he's received in the newspaper's surveys for this year's election, and it comes amid quiet speculation -- or perhaps wishful thinking by his opponents -- that it's time for the Nevada Democrat to retire rather than lose re-election...


Las Vegas Review-Journal
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