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nautilus

Joined: 26 Nov 2005 Location: Je jump, Tu jump, oui jump!
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 6:03 am Post subject: US unemployment falls in January. |
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Bureau of Labor Statistics
Friday, February 5, 2010
The unemployment rate fell from 10.0 to 9.7 percent in January, and nonfarm
payroll employment was essentially unchanged (-20,000), the U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. Employment fell in construction and in
transportation and warehousing, while temporary help services and retail
trade added jobs.
Household Survey Data
In January, the number of unemployed persons decreased to 14.8 million,
and the unemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage point to 9.7 percent.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm |
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mistermasan
Joined: 20 Sep 2007 Location: 10+ yrs on Dave's ESL cafe
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 6:10 am Post subject: |
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but nobody believed 10.0 amd nobody believes it is now 9.7 |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 6:15 am Post subject: |
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Ho hum. Either it doesn't fit the far right's narrative of impending doom (and if it isn't impending it darn well should be) and can be ignored like it didn't even happen or it doesn't fit the not-quite-but-darn-near-right's narrative that all government is evil and so the numbers are not to be believed since the government says it and only sheeple could be foolish enough to accept anything the gov't says.
So we can safely ignore yet another sign that things are getting slowly improving. That's not to say we shouldn't continue our fear-campaign. |
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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:13 am Post subject: |
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^ Or safer yet, we should all just ignore ya-ta boy's woefully uninformed opinion on the matter.
Real unemployment is currently above 19% (well above depression level), up from 17% a few months ago, and continues to get worse. Obama, being the worthless excuse for a president that he is, has no way of fixing it. All he knows how to do is give speeches and do what the criminal banks tell him.
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"Everyone agrees that the recession is over," said Larry Summers, President Obama's top economic advisor, on December 13.
Yet December's unemployment numbers announced last Friday suggest otherwise -- especially the 'real unemployment' figure.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the official unemployment rate is 10%, a figure which itself caused a major headline to blare, "U.S. Job Losses Dim Hopes for Quick Upswing."
But in fact real unemployment in the United States is stuck at a dismal 19%, a figure nearly twice the so-called official number. And the economy is short a staggering 22.4 million jobs in order to have an overall full unemployment rate of 5%, which is more than twice the 9 million figure the administration is using. |
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/leo-hindery-jr/the-real-unemployment-nee_b_420108.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/harsh-realities-85k-jobs-lost-in-december-"real"-unemployment-rate-at-17.3-400222.html |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Location: retired
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:33 am Post subject: |
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Quote: |
Either it doesn't fit the far right |
Ah.
Here is some analysis.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nfp-20000-consensus-15000-non-seasonally-adjusted-unemployment-rate-both-u3-and-u6-surge-rec
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The January NFP number came in at -20,000, a mere 5k away from Goldman's -25,000 estimate. Consensus was for +15,000. December, as all prior months, saw an expected major downward revision to -150,000 from -85,000. The January Birth/Death adjustment was for -427K from +25K in December. Despite a deterioration in every metric, the unemployment rate dropped from 10.% to 9.7%, even with a consensus at 10.0%. A glitch in the excel model is further corroborated when one considers that the civilian labor force participation rate actually rose in January from 64.6 to 64.7.
Yet a number that avoids some of the constant fudging by the BLS, the Non-Seasonally Adjusted number, hit a new recent record: instead of 9.7%, this number was 10.6%, a 0.9% increase from December!
The same can be seen in the U-6 data. NSA U-6 is now at a record 18%, even as the seasonally adjusted number declined to 16.5%. |
I agree with this ZH commentator:
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The new model:
Pick a number you are comfortable with, say 9.7%, then massage the "data" until you get there.
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Using U3 is dishonest in itself. People who fall off the EI rolls or give up are still unemployed.
Unfortunately, there will always be partisan cheer-leaders who refuse analysis. Eh ya-ta. We're starting the double-dip now. Should be fun. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007 Location: retired
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:34 am Post subject: |
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visitorq wrote: |
^ Or safer yet, we should all just ignore ya-ta boy's woefully uninformed opinion on the matter.
Real unemployment is currently above 19% (well above depression level), up from 17% a few months ago, and continues to get worse. Obama, being the worthless excuse for a president that he is, has no way of fixing it. All he knows how to do is give speeches and do what the criminal banks tell him.
Quote: |
"Everyone agrees that the recession is over," said Larry Summers, President Obama's top economic advisor, on December 13.
Yet December's unemployment numbers announced last Friday suggest otherwise -- especially the 'real unemployment' figure.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics the official unemployment rate is 10%, a figure which itself caused a major headline to blare, "U.S. Job Losses Dim Hopes for Quick Upswing."
But in fact real unemployment in the United States is stuck at a dismal 19%, a figure nearly twice the so-called official number. And the economy is short a staggering 22.4 million jobs in order to have an overall full unemployment rate of 5%, which is more than twice the 9 million figure the administration is using. |
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/leo-hindery-jr/the-real-unemployment-nee_b_420108.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/harsh-realities-85k-jobs-lost-in-december-"real"-unemployment-rate-at-17.3-400222.html |
They're trying the If we don't tell the citizens it is a depression they won't know it is a depression game. |
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pkang0202

Joined: 09 Mar 2007
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:47 am Post subject: |
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Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
So we can safely ignore yet another sign that things are getting slowly improving. That's not to say we shouldn't continue our fear-campaign. |
Seriously? Things are getting better? Only a fool looks at unemployment numbers. You have to look at REAL unemployment. You also have to look at the under-employment rate. Those 2 are better measures.
Unemployment doesn't take into consideration people who just gave up looking for work, and also people who are working part-time who want to work full time. |
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005 Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:49 am Post subject: |
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Quote: |
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER, Ap Economics Writer � 3 mins ago
WASHINGTON �
The outlook for jobs remains bleak despite January's unexpected decline in the unemployment rate, which fell to 9.7 percent from 10 percent in December.
A Labor Department survey of households found that 541,000 more Americans had jobs last month. But most of those gains were attributed to seasonal adjustments to the data.
Without those adjustments, which account for reduced hiring during winter, the data show fewer people had jobs last month.
A separate survey of businesses found that employers shed 20,000 jobs last month. |
Wake up Yata. The fascist-socialists that you adore have lied to you throughout your lifetime. Your gullibility proves, however, that it is quite likely that millions of Germans did not "know" that Hitler was gassing the Jews. They were dupes, loved Adolph and refused to see the truth. |
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005 Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 8:05 am Post subject: |
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Quote: |
By Chris Isidore, senior writer , On Thursday February 4, 2010, 4:52 pm EST
As bad as the government's jobs readings numbers have been during the Great Recession, we'll soon find out the real situation likely was worse.
Much worse.
Job losses during the recession may have been underestimated by close to a million jobs. So instead of employers cutting just over 7 million jobs from their payrolls since the economic downturn began in December 2007, it's expected that the Labor Department's new estimate will be a loss of 8 million jobs.
"It's an enormous understatement of the severity of the crisis," said Heidi Shierholz, labor economist with the Economic Policy Institute, a union-supported think tank. "It confirms that things were actually worse on the ground than what the reports suggested."
The new reading will come when the economists at the department's Bureau of Labor Statistics release their annual revision of U.S. payrolls from April 2008 through March of 2009 Friday, using data that wasn't available as the monthly readings were being estimated and reported.
The government's current readings show that
4.8 million jobs were lost in those twelve months, more than twice the jobs lost during any comparable April-March period going back to 1939, when the numbers first started to be compiled. |
So, another downward revision of a million jobs lost, hidden by the government.
The job losses in the Second Great Depression are already double that of any recession since the First Great Depression.
The real unemployment rate is over 18% before these new adjustments are taken into account - which approaches the worst days of the First Great Depression.
We should be aware that the method of calculating unemployment during the First Great Depression is not the one used to get 9.7% today, but matches the 18% plus rate. The fascist-socialists changed the way they count to make themselves look better.
And, even more importantly, the 1 million additional job losses came during the April 2008 to March 2009 period. Reports show that there may have been an additional 1.2 million jobs lost from April 2009 through today that remain hidden by the phoney government statistics. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 8:28 am Post subject: |
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Last winter at this time, things were teetering on the cliff. You guys all said whatever Obama wanted to do was wrong. This year, when things are clearly not nose-diving into the abyss, I am beginning to get whiffs of the stink of desperation from you guys.
I realize that whatever Obama does will continue to be wrong because it won't a) produce a recovery fast enough or b) if he had done what you wanted, then things would be much better than they ever have been in the entire recorded history of mankind.
One of my favorite people is Roger Ebert. He figured out that it makes sense to judge a person by what they set out to do. If a director sets out to make a horror movie, it makes no sense to judge them a failure for producing a great comedy just because that is what you were in the mood for. You should think about that.
The genius of Rush is that he expressed what you have been hoping for for the last year. You need Obama to fail to validate your desires.
Well, na, na, na, na, na.  |
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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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Posted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 8:38 am Post subject: |
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^ The only desperation I can detect is your ultra-lame attempt at mockery, even attaching that pitiful little "LOL" emoticon on the end...
Obama already has failed, as myself and other posters have shown (even cited sources). You're not fooling anyone. We all know the economy is in the toilet and continues to get worse. It's a simple fact. |
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pkang0202

Joined: 09 Mar 2007
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Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2010 2:41 am Post subject: |
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Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
Last winter at this time, things were teetering on the cliff. You guys all said whatever Obama wanted to do was wrong. This year, when things are clearly not nose-diving into the abyss, I am beginning to get whiffs of the stink of desperation from you guys.
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You got called out for trying to defend a weak position. And that's your response. Sounds like, "whatever man. I'm still right. You guys...you guys just don't know what your talking about man. Last year you said that things were going to be re3al bad and their not. So....so why don't you take that!"
Last edited by pkang0202 on Sat Feb 06, 2010 2:52 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2010 2:50 am Post subject: |
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Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
One of my favorite people is Roger Ebert. He figured out that it makes sense to judge a person by what they set out to do. If a director sets out to make a horror movie, it makes no sense to judge them a failure for producing a great comedy just because that is what you were in the mood for. You should think about that. |
The Stimulus was supposed to save/create 4 million jobs.
Obama stopped measuring the jobs saved/created after it became a PR nightmare.
Mission accomplished. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994
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Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2010 1:43 pm Post subject: |
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Kuros wrote: |
Ya-ta Boy wrote: |
One of my favorite people is Roger Ebert. He figured out that it makes sense to judge a person by what they set out to do. If a director sets out to make a horror movie, it makes no sense to judge them a failure for producing a great comedy just because that is what you were in the mood for. You should think about that. |
The Stimulus was supposed to save/create 4 million jobs.
Obama stopped measuring the jobs saved/created after it became a PR nightmare.
Mission accomplished. |
I never said the GOP wasn't good, often brilliant, at propaganda. They have been winning the disinformation war all year.
The stimulus clearly saved jobs, maybe not as many as hoped, but it did contribute significantly to putting a floor under the economy. It was enough of a jolt to stop what looked like a collapse. The worst criticism of it is that it was too small--Obama should have spent more. The other thing he should have done was to publicize the successes--photo ops in the Rose Garden, etc of people whose jobs were saved. A couple of weeks ago the wind energy folks put out that there was 40% increase in construction than there would have been otherwise last year. That's an accomplishment that didn't get noticed. There are no doubt a lot more of them that get buried in all the negativity the nay-sayers prefer to hear. The other thing that should have been trumpeted loud and clear was that the stimulus was 1/3 tax CUTS. I'm not a fan of tax cuts since I don't think they particularly work well, but still.
The nihilism is getting suffocating. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003 Location: Established in 1994
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Posted: Sat Feb 06, 2010 2:17 pm Post subject: |
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In addition:
These days it�s hard to pick up a newspaper or turn on a news program without encountering stern warnings about the federal budget deficit. The deficit threatens economic recovery, we�re told; it puts American economic stability at risk; it will undermine our influence in the world. These claims generally aren�t stated as opinions, as views held by some analysts but disputed by others. Instead, they�re reported as if they were facts, plain and simple.
Yet they aren�t facts. Many economists take a much calmer view of budget deficits than anything you�ll see on TV. Nor do investors seem unduly concerned: U.S. government bonds continue to find ready buyers, even at historically low interest rates. The long-run budget outlook is problematic, but short-term deficits aren�t � and even the long-term outlook is much less frightening than the public is being led to believe...
To me � and I�m not alone in this � the sudden outbreak of deficit hysteria brings back memories of the groupthink that took hold during the run-up to the Iraq war. Now, as then, dubious allegations, not backed by hard evidence, are being reported as if they have been established beyond a shadow of a doubt...
Consider, for example, what the latest budget proposal from the Obama administration says about interest payments on federal debt; according to the projections, a decade from now they�ll have risen to 3.5 percent of G.D.P. How scary is that? It�s about the same as interest costs under the first President Bush.
Why, then, all the hysteria? The answer is politics.
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/05/opinion/05krugman.html
Hysteria is not the prefered mind-set when trying to find solutions to a problem. |
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