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What would Korea be if.....

 
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longsack22



Joined: 16 Dec 2008

PostPosted: Fri Feb 05, 2010 11:11 am    Post subject: What would Korea be if..... Reply with quote

What if the DMZ opened tomorrow and North / South were one country again. I was reading the "Korean Mentality" thread and others and it started me thinking. Do you think in a few years many Koreans would be on Korean forums posting nearly the same questions we are asking?

While they may be the same people with the same cultures I�m sure the values within the society over time have changed. I�m sure that over time the culture within each society has changed. While we can post on Korean society or try to generalize on the society we have no way to speculate (for the most part) on North Korean society and values. Forget about the economic changes, political changes and on and on and on.

I�m talking only about say for example �North Korean vs South Korean Mentality�? What about your average Korean guy texting the girl he just went out with 7 times within 2 hours of the end of the first date, only she is North Korean. I�m sure she would not be used to this! Or how about the idea of protesting because they don�t want meat from China (for example), what must the north population that is now blending with the south think?

I could guess on some things that may be nearly the same within the two groups of people that are from Korea�. But what I�m looking for is your thoughts on what may be different, or how it will be different and possibly why? Do you think the mentality between the two countries/people would be different?
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mc_jc



Joined: 13 Aug 2009
Location: C4B- Cp Red Cloud, Area-I

PostPosted: Sat Feb 06, 2010 10:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
What if the DMZ opened tomorrow and North / South were one country again.


I can say from an international viewpoint- it won't happen. Despite all the hype these days about reports of unrest in North Korea, nothing is going to change between the status quo.

US- the US uses the North Korean threat as the context for keeping over 60,000 troops in the region. Although most strategic reports cite North Korea as the main threat, the real threat comes from China and Russia. Both countries are seen as being very autocratic in nature and laying claims to places like Vietnam, Korea, Japan, Thailand, Myanmar and Cambodia, not to mention the obvious threat to Taiwan.

China- North Korea is a buffer state that guarantees the security of China. Without this, China would feel threatened that its border along the Korean frontier would be exposed. The Chinese guarantee to the North Korean state comes in the way of arms, missile technology, food, monetary aid, energy, luxury goods for the elite and basic goods for the masses and trade along the border.

Russia- During Soviet times, North Korea was a proxy state used to keep the US and its allies in the region in check. Now North Korea provides cheap labor, raw materials and a limited market for Russian goods that are sold in stores catering to North Korea's small foreign community and the elite. Russian ship building companies and cargo companies use North Korea's very skilled, but extremely cheap labor to build ships and cargo containers. North Korea also uses Russia as a conduit for its illicit arms trade, which brings in millions in hard currency, and proliferates North Korean arms to countries in Central Asia (including the Taliban) and the Middle East (namely Iran).

Japan- Japan has used North Korea as the main reason for allowing the US to position its forces on its territory.
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kohmelo



Joined: 26 Sep 2009

PostPosted: Sat Feb 06, 2010 2:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
North Korea also uses Russia as a conduit for its illicit arms trade, which brings in millions in hard currency, and proliferates North Korean arms to countries in Central Asia (including the Taliban) and the Middle East (namely Iran).


Russia DO NOT sell North Korean arms to Iran, you should stop reading that crap the american media spits out, And I expect you to believe that Iran is capable os making many nuclear weapons (Psst, Israel and USA don't have any right Wink ) of course EVERY country apart from Iran and North Korea can have nuclear arms. (No I do no like Israel!)


Also what the hell does the Taliban have to do with Central Asia? and the Taliban's weapons are from when Russians when they ran away from there, and lets not forget when the American government gave the TALIBAN weapons to fight the russians also, I guess you forgot about that Rolling Eyes
..

To the OP, if that was to happen, the most likely scenario will be for North Korean agents to kill anyone who supported the south korean regime. And of course those ugly mother...... north americans Yee-HAW
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jvalmer



Joined: 06 Jun 2003

PostPosted: Sat Feb 06, 2010 3:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Based on how the Germans and Vietnamese treat their other half, there will be at least 2 generations (20-30 years) of major differences and tension between the two sides. The people who actually lived through the division and their unborn kids. Future generations won't care much. Kind of like how the kids now barely know, or care, about the Korean War, who are now 3 or 4 generations removed.

Even Americans still have minor lingering issues between each other, and US civil war was done over 140 years ago
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mc_jc



Joined: 13 Aug 2009
Location: C4B- Cp Red Cloud, Area-I

PostPosted: Sat Feb 06, 2010 4:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Russia DO NOT sell North Korean arms to Iran, you should stop reading that crap the american media spits out...

And you know this because... Question
A bulk of North Korean arms shipments bound for Iran are shipped through Russia on their way to Iran via Russian airspace (something that is not done anymore since the US has been monitoring Russian air traffic) and highways until they reach the Caspian Sea where they are ferried over to Iran.

Quote:
Also what the hell does the Taliban have to do with Central Asia?
Uhm...Afghanistan is in Central Asia. Russian arms dealers were involved in selling the Taliban weapons from Tadjikistan that originated from North Korea.

At least we didn't send $20 million to secure the release of "tourists" who had no business being in Afghanistan to begin with, like the way the Koreans did. Only Koreans are naive enough to attempt to preach Christian values in a Muslim country.

I forgot to mention South Korea~


South Korea- South Koreans don't want reunification due to the high cost of integrating North Koreans into South Korean society. Having seen the hardships experienced after German reunification, South Koreans prefer the status quo to prevent anything that might signal economic collapse.
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Old Gil



Joined: 26 Sep 2009
Location: Got out! olleh!

PostPosted: Sun Feb 07, 2010 1:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

China would never ever allow a US friendly state all the way to the Yalu river, . However, should South Korea begin to drift further into China's camp in response to Japan's eventual rearmament (maybe by 2020?), I think the Chinese and SK will come to some sort of agreement as to how to git r done.
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southernman



Joined: 15 Jan 2010
Location: On the mainland again

PostPosted: Sun Feb 07, 2010 2:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I used to have some good discusions with my top Hogwan class, middle school kids, They don't want anything to do with reunification

Freely admitted they prefer the good lifestyle now and realise it'll suck heaps of money out of the economy and make the country poorer
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Konglishman



Joined: 14 Sep 2007
Location: Nanjing

PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Some people think that China's current GDP growth rate is unsustainable. Now, if China's economy were to stop growing so fast, it would start having a much tougher time keeping its populace happy and in check. In those circumstances, I bet that China would be less willing to provide economic aid to North Korea. My point is that things change. So, at some point, the factors cited by Mc_jc will not be sufficient to keep North Korea's current government propped up.

Now, of course, if North Korea's government were to collapse or were to go through some sort of profound revolutionary change, immediate reunification would still be out of the question. Instead, I would imagine that sort of dual alliance would be formed between the two Koreas. Reunification would only occur once North Korea is able to achieve some sort of reasonable economic parity with South Korea.

Recently, I read a book which suggested the collapse of North Korea by sometime around 2030. Afterwards, if it were to embark on a program of economic growth under the guidance of South Korea and other developed nations, then I could see reunification occur sometime around 2060.

Of course, this is all very speculative. Still, it is interesting to think about.
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hellofaniceguy



Joined: 10 Jan 2003
Location: On your computer screen!

PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The DMZ is not going to open anytime soon....in our lifetime...it won't happen. The leaders in the north do not want to give up their lifestyle, control, status, etc...and as previously mentioned.....the Chinese DO NOT want the U.S. so close to its borders! Who would be the elected President if the DMZ opens? You think the north would not want the job!? So does the south.
Arms are always going to be sold illegally by indivudales or countries. Sure, a lot of propaganda from all countries...long on rhetoric and short on specifics. It's all about money and power.
In the mean time, I'll keep doing my thing by making money and let the powers to be do theirs!
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itaewonguy



Joined: 25 Mar 2003

PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2010 6:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

soon as KJI dies we will know the fate of the North.. is the son takes over he might sell out... if he is just a puppet for the military then we will never see one nation in our life time unless its provoked by force...

but if the two nations did reunify then it will be like Germany...
the south will enter the north and do what they do best.. BUILD! and BUILD FAST!! EDUCATE EDUCATE and EDUCATE to bring the children up to speed and focus on the babies, 20 years later one nation on a great path...
sure there will be problems.. but time will fix that...
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90 proof



Joined: 28 Jan 2010

PostPosted: Wed Feb 10, 2010 3:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Read about when the wall fell in Berlin. East and West Germans where two totally different countries in almost every way and it took them a while to come togather. It would take a while but the two Korea's would work it out in years to come.
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jhuntingtonus



Joined: 09 Dec 2008
Location: Jeonju

PostPosted: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fir my 2,100 word article "Korea in 2022," see www.thejeonjhub.com, "Back Page" for now, Archives in the future.
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toadhjo



Joined: 07 Apr 2009

PostPosted: Fri Feb 12, 2010 10:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hellofaniceguy wrote:
The DMZ is not going to open anytime soon....in our lifetime...it won't happen.


I'm not saying it will happen...but I got like, another 60 years in me. That's a LOT of time for something to happen.
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Stalin84



Joined: 30 Dec 2009
Location: Haebangchon, Seoul

PostPosted: Fri Feb 12, 2010 10:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hellofaniceguy wrote:
The DMZ is not going to open anytime soon....in our lifetime...it won't happen.


The "would never happen in our lifetime" comments never sit well with me. Who would've predicted this past decade even twenty years ago? The future is harder to predict now than it was at any point in human history.

I don't think reunification would necessarily spell disaster for the South Korean economy. This is because reunification shouldn't be the goal here. Once the North Korean state collapses (and it will, maybe in the next five years) South Korea has the obligation to reform the state.

Since both countries speak the same language and share a very similar culture, this process would actually not be as difficult as American "puppet governments" in Middle Eastern countries. The goal is getting North Koreans to not emmigrate to South Korea, rather to stay where they are and build a new economy with the help of South Koreans.

The Rawlsian approach would work best for this. Basically, South Korea would be responsible for developing infrastructure and providing security. South Koreans wouldn't flood money into the region, instead they would focus on giving North Koreans the necessary skills to develop their own society.

North Korea should be allowed to develop along it's own lines. A controlled bottom up approach (local politics and organic leadership) instead of a top down approach ("puppet governments") which the South would facilitate while keeping a close eye on how it develops in order to assure there are no repeats of before.

North Korea is such a strange case that they might need a lot more supervision than other populations would, however by the time the younger generations begin to take power we'd be seeing the same kind of rapid change people witnessed in South Korea. In 50 years the two countries might nearly even be indistinguishable by outsiders.
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