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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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 Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2010 7:06 pm Post subject: Re: Murder |
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| chris_J2 wrote: |
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| As a group, murderers have a very low rate of recidivism |
Do you have any links to support that statement?
Found this in a quick google:
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| Of the 108,580 persons released from prisons in 11 States in 1983, representing more than half of all released State prisoners that year, an estimated 62.5% were rearrested for a felony or serious misdemeanor within 3 years, 46.8% were reconvicted, and 41.4% returned to prison or jail. |
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According to Allen J. Beck, Ph.D., BJS Statistician, from that same study:
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| Those released for murder or for negligent manslaughter had the lowest rates of recidivism...6.6%of released murderers were rearrested for another homicide. |
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chris_J2
Joined: 17 Apr 2006
Location: From Brisbane, Au.
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| Posted: Mon Mar 08, 2010 7:11 pm Post subject: Murder |
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Fair enough.
6.6% is 10 times better than 66% |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 1:02 am Post subject: |
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| bacasper wrote: |
| caniff wrote: |
| bacasper wrote: |
| JMO wrote: |
| Someone should do a study on people's reaction to stories like this. |
Yes, you'd probably find a lot of projection. |
Hhhmmm, yes. JFF's sake, why don't you put on your smaht hat and take a stab at it. |
Many people have subconscious violent, sexual, and/or sadistic impulses which would be too threatening to the ego if they came into consciousness. Projection is a psychological defense mechanism to allay the anxiety that would cause. Attribution of one's own unacceptable impulses to the easy target allays the anxiety that would be caused if those impulses ever reached one's consciousness. |
Yeah, I knew that. You think we should tell IG? |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 1:22 am Post subject: |
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| caniff wrote: |
| bacasper wrote: |
| caniff wrote: |
| bacasper wrote: |
| JMO wrote: |
| Someone should do a study on people's reaction to stories like this. |
Yes, you'd probably find a lot of projection. |
Hhhmmm, yes. JFF's sake, why don't you put on your smaht hat and take a stab at it. |
Many people have subconscious violent, sexual, and/or sadistic impulses which would be too threatening to the ego if they came into consciousness. Projection is a psychological defense mechanism to allay the anxiety that would cause. Attribution of one's own unacceptable impulses to the easy target allays the anxiety that would be caused if those impulses ever reached one's consciousness. |
Yeah, I knew that. You think we should tell IG? |
He'll know it now.  |
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flakfizer
Joined: 12 Nov 2004
Location: scaling the Cliffs of Insanity with a frayed rope.
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| Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 2:05 am Post subject: Re: Murder |
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| bacasper wrote: |
| chris_J2 wrote: |
| Quote: |
| As a group, murderers have a very low rate of recidivism |
Do you have any links to support that statement?
Found this in a quick google:
| Quote: |
| Of the 108,580 persons released from prisons in 11 States in 1983, representing more than half of all released State prisoners that year, an estimated 62.5% were rearrested for a felony or serious misdemeanor within 3 years, 46.8% were reconvicted, and 41.4% returned to prison or jail. |
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According to Allen J. Beck, Ph.D., BJS Statistician, from that same study:
| Quote: |
| Those released for murder or for negligent manslaughter had the lowest rates of recidivism...6.6%of released murderers were rearrested for another homicide. |
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I don't take much comfort in the above stats. Joe Blow, in a fit of violent rage beats his girlfriend to death. He goes to prison. He's released and in a violent fit of rage beats his next girlfriend badly too, only she doesn't die. This guy would qualify as one of the 93.4 percent that were not "rearrested for another homicide." Even someone convicted of attempted murder would not be considered recidivist by that incredibly low standard. I'm much more concerned by the stats higher up there that show over 60 percent were rearrested for a felony or a serious misdemeanor within three years. I do prefer to believe that people can indeed change, but I also believe that the innocent need to be protected from those who have proven themselves to be a serious danger to others. |
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wesharris
Joined: 10 Oct 2008
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| Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 4:06 am Post subject: |
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| CentralCali wrote: |
Taking someone out of society does not require lowering society to the level of bloodlust called for above. Imprisonment for life is removing someone from society and, as it turns out, is much cheaper than the current situation involved with death row cases.
For this case, I recall seeing something about the police canvassing the neighborhood a few days after she went missing. What needs to happen here is for the police, along with the rest of the society, to start taking these cases seriously. Amber alerts would be a great start. Also good would be for the judiciary to take these crimes seriously. |
That's a common mistake CentralCali. A major problem with modern society is the denial of certain basic human needs, one of those needs is revenge. Without bloodlust, things such as higher crimerates, abuse rates, and other violent events happen to become more evident when those baser instincts ARE ignored. I'd say a public lynching IS in order.
_+_+
Wes |
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NovaKart
Joined: 18 Nov 2009
Location: Iraq
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| Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 6:26 am Post subject: |
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| Public executions are beyond obscene. People complain when a boob is flashed on TV and then want to see someone beheaded. I bet if you really saw it you wouldn't be so keen on the idea. I realize we're talking about a case in Korea but I think most of the people in this discussion are now focusing on the situation in America. We're already considered backwards in some ways and now people want to drag us back to the Middle Ages. |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 6:57 am Post subject: |
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| NovaKart wrote: |
| People complain when a boob is flashed on TV |
I know, it's ridiculous - Glenn Beck isn't that bad. |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 9:03 am Post subject: Re: Murder |
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| flakfizer wrote: |
| I don't take much comfort in the above stats. Joe Blow, in a fit of violent rage beats his girlfriend to death. He goes to prison. He's released and in a violent fit of rage beats his next girlfriend badly too, only she doesn't die. This guy would qualify as one of the 93.4 percent that were not "rearrested for another homicide." Even someone convicted of attempted murder would not be considered recidivist by that incredibly low standard. I'm much more concerned by the stats higher up there that show over 60 percent were rearrested for a felony or a serious misdemeanor within three years. I do prefer to believe that people can indeed change, but I also believe that the innocent need to be protected from those who have proven themselves to be a serious danger to others. |
There is no evidence of cases fitting the paranoid fantasy above.
If an ex-con is rearrested, he should be re-prosecuted. |
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flakfizer
Joined: 12 Nov 2004
Location: scaling the Cliffs of Insanity with a frayed rope.
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| Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 10:28 am Post subject: Re: Murder |
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| bacasper wrote: |
| flakfizer wrote: |
| I don't take much comfort in the above stats. Joe Blow, in a fit of violent rage beats his girlfriend to death. He goes to prison. He's released and in a violent fit of rage beats his next girlfriend badly too, only she doesn't die. This guy would qualify as one of the 93.4 percent that were not "rearrested for another homicide." Even someone convicted of attempted murder would not be considered recidivist by that incredibly low standard. I'm much more concerned by the stats higher up there that show over 60 percent were rearrested for a felony or a serious misdemeanor within three years. I do prefer to believe that people can indeed change, but I also believe that the innocent need to be protected from those who have proven themselves to be a serious danger to others. |
There is no evidence of cases fitting the paranoid fantasy above.
If an ex-con is rearrested, he should be re-prosecuted. |
It's not a paranoid fantasy. It's a hypothetical example that shows the weakness of the stats.
Someone who was rearrested should be re-prosecuted? No kidding. The stats provided by the other guy show that nearly 50 percent were re-convicted. And that's just within three years of their release. The numbers could be higher if they counted arrests occurring later than that. |
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Captain Corea
Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 3:00 pm Post subject: Re: Murder |
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| bacasper wrote: |
| chris_J2 wrote: |
| Quote: |
| As a group, murderers have a very low rate of recidivism |
Do you have any links to support that statement?
Found this in a quick google:
| Quote: |
| Of the 108,580 persons released from prisons in 11 States in 1983, representing more than half of all released State prisoners that year, an estimated 62.5% were rearrested for a felony or serious misdemeanor within 3 years, 46.8% were reconvicted, and 41.4% returned to prison or jail. |
|
According to Allen J. Beck, Ph.D., BJS Statistician, from that same study:
| Quote: |
| Those released for murder or for negligent manslaughter had the lowest rates of recidivism...6.6%of released murderers were rearrested for another homicide. |
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Recidivism stats don't include people who don't get caught. |
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 7:41 pm Post subject: Re: Murder |
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| Captain Corea wrote: |
| bacasper wrote: |
| chris_J2 wrote: |
| Quote: |
| As a group, murderers have a very low rate of recidivism |
Do you have any links to support that statement?
Found this in a quick google:
| Quote: |
| Of the 108,580 persons released from prisons in 11 States in 1983, representing more than half of all released State prisoners that year, an estimated 62.5% were rearrested for a felony or serious misdemeanor within 3 years, 46.8% were reconvicted, and 41.4% returned to prison or jail. |
|
According to Allen J. Beck, Ph.D., BJS Statistician, from that same study:
| Quote: |
| Those released for murder or for negligent manslaughter had the lowest rates of recidivism...6.6%of released murderers were rearrested for another homicide. |
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Recidivism stats don't include people who don't get caught. |
That may be balanced by the falsely convicted, either the first or second time. |
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Fox
Joined: 04 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Tue Mar 09, 2010 11:07 pm Post subject: Re: Murder |
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| Captain Corea wrote: |
| bacasper wrote: |
| chris_J2 wrote: |
| Quote: |
| As a group, murderers have a very low rate of recidivism |
Do you have any links to support that statement?
Found this in a quick google:
| Quote: |
| Of the 108,580 persons released from prisons in 11 States in 1983, representing more than half of all released State prisoners that year, an estimated 62.5% were rearrested for a felony or serious misdemeanor within 3 years, 46.8% were reconvicted, and 41.4% returned to prison or jail. |
|
According to Allen J. Beck, Ph.D., BJS Statistician, from that same study:
| Quote: |
| Those released for murder or for negligent manslaughter had the lowest rates of recidivism...6.6%of released murderers were rearrested for another homicide. |
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Recidivism stats don't include people who don't get caught. |
Yes, but the same can be said of any crime, don't you think? That, combined with the fact that murder is one of the hardest crimes to hide in a civilized country, implies to me that while the percentage figure itself might not be exactly perfect, that the comparative statement about murder having the lowest rate of recidivism is probably correct. |
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Captain Corea
Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Wed Mar 10, 2010 4:04 am Post subject: |
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I don't know about that. I mean, how many killings/unexplained disappearances go unsolved each year?
I would not be surprised at all if some of that is attributable to repeat offenders. |
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CentralCali
Joined: 17 May 2007
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