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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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 Posted: Mon May 10, 2010 10:05 pm Post subject: |
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| 4 months left wrote: |
| Jane wrote: |
I would like you to think about what would have happened if the government hadn't stepped in to bailout the banks and companies that were deemed too big to fail. The result would be a bigger assault on the majority of citizens' personal and economic freedoms. Not to mention the FED, in pursuit of it's ultimate capitalist goal, has managed to eat away the purchasing power of most people's hard earned money through inflation, to keep the capitalist machine going.
An accountable gov't, one that isn't full of Goldman henchman, one that is accountable to it's people, one in a real democracy, has a responsible for keeping things in check through regulation. I agree that over-regulation can limit competition, and this isn't good. But we do not some policing because of the nature of capitalism.
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If the government hadn't stepped in we would have been in much better shape than we are now. Government intervention is almost always an unmitigated disaster - see the Great Depression!
The idiotic Keynesian government policies have only worsened what will most likely become an even worse situation than the crisis we have been through. Although the pain might have been a little worse, the free market system, a la Austrian school, is the only sane solution which Bernake, Geithner, et al continue to ignore.
The government brainwashed the sheeple that if they had not stepped in the financial system would have collapsed. Complete and utter bullsh#t! Just another excuse to use blank cheques and keep the party going and try to get re-elected.
The smaller and less intrusive the gov't the better! |
This is all true. I'll only add that the bankers are no longer just brainwashing people - they're now engaged in full on economic terrorism, which is exactly what the 1000 point stock market plunge last Thursday was. They are holding the American people, as well as the government hostage. They're no different from the mafia. |
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Jane
Joined: 01 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Mon May 10, 2010 10:09 pm Post subject: |
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| In the first place, are you not aware that the Fed is a government/private banking hybrid? The Federal Reserve Act was signed into law by the government in 1913. The government is to blame. |
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| Huh? Again, are you not aware that it is government regulation that led to the creation of the Fed in the first place?? |
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10489
http://www.bigeye.com/griffin.htm
And yes, I agree with the poster who says we have a hodge-podge system at the moment. |
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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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| Posted: Mon May 10, 2010 10:24 pm Post subject: |
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| Jane wrote: |
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| In the first place, are you not aware that the Fed is a government/private banking hybrid? The Federal Reserve Act was signed into law by the government in 1913. The government is to blame. |
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| Huh? Again, are you not aware that it is government regulation that led to the creation of the Fed in the first place?? |
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=10489
http://www.bigeye.com/griffin.htm
And yes, I agree with the poster who says we have a hodge-podge system at the moment. |
I'm aware that the Fed is privately owned (you're not telling me anything I didn't know already). I'm probably the poster on here that harps on about the private Fed the most...
You still miss the point though: the Fed is a joint venture between the private mega banks and the government.
1) The banks get to control the issuance of currency and credit and charge interest on money they create out of thin air. It is their supreme tool of usury and it allows them to control the economy at large. This is what they get out of it.
2) The government gets to borrow unlimited money from the Fed. Whenever the government wants to fund a war, or some ridiculous entitlement program, or generally expand its bureaucracy, etc, etc, this requires finance. This finance can come from direct taxation, which people resent, and affects politicians at the ballot box; or they can just borrow as much money as they feel like by issuing bonds. This borrowing debases the currency through inflation, but matters little to them since, like the banks, the government gets to spend the money at its full purchasing power, before the inflation (hidden tax) kicks in. Not to mention the government is all about spending (wasting) other people's money. The Fed allows them to spend as much as they want on whatever they want, without having to directly involve the public. This is what the government gets out of it. |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Tue May 11, 2010 12:41 am Post subject: |
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| visitorq wrote: |
| 4 months left wrote: |
No, most countries DO NOT finance their debt from domestic borrowing. The U.S., Greece, Portugal, Spain, etc all borrow from foreign sources. It is very rare to finance your debt from domestic sources. |
This is just false. Do you understand how central banking works? All governments borrow from their own central banks. This is the only reason that central banks exist in the first place! Think about it: the government has only 2 ways to generate revenue. The first is to raise taxes, which is unpopular. The second is to borrow it from the central bank, which taxes the people in the form of inflation (which the general public is too dumb to notice).
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| Financing debt from domestic sources is called "Quantatative Easing" and is not really financing, it is just printing money. |
Sorry but this is a meaningless statement. Don't let jargon confuse you. All financing in a debt based monetary system (which every country has) is "just printing money". Every single dollar, yen, euro, pound, yuan etc. in existence is just fiat money issued as debt, backed by nothing.
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Japan is nearing the end of its ability to finance debt domestically
1) Japan has an ageing population
2) Japan's savings rate is below the U.S. savings rate.
3) Japan's exports have benefitted from China's growth and stimulus which is coming to a halt.
4) Japan and Korea have benefitted from exporting intermediary goods to China. China is now moving to produce those goods domestically or outsourcing to cheaper S.E. Asian countries.
5) Japan's currency is a drag on the economy and will benefit when reality sets in and it is devalued. The Yen and Dollar are just the best of a bad bunch, mostly in perception, at the moment. |
1) True.
2) I'm pretty certain this is completely false and that the opposite is true.
3) Japan is hardly unique in this regard.
4) Perhaps, but Chinese goods are not of the same quality as Japanese goods. Therefore they compete in different markets. Korean firms will feel the competition more strongly.
5) The yen is the strongest major currency (much the dismay of the Japanese) for a good reason: Japan still has a strong manufacturing base and trade surpluses. That is the reality setting in.
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| So to clarify, Japan is a mess |
The whole world is a mess. Yet Japan is in good shape as long as exports keep it afloat. |
Yes I understand countries borrow from their Central Bank. The U.S. has been monetizing debt through Quantatative Easing which is a nicer sounding phrase than "printing money." Countries issue bonds which other countries buy. Japan's debt is 95% domestic so yes even Japan has foreign buyers of debt.
Also working in Japan's favour is the fact that nearly 95 per cent of its outstanding government debt is held by domestic investors http://news.malaysia.msn.com/business/article.aspx?cp-documentid=4071926
Central Banks also set i rates so the only reason they exist is not just for govt's to borrow money...i guess you don't understand how central banks work. Anyway, Central Banks should not exist in the first place.
1) True.
2) I'm pretty certain this is completely false and that the opposite is true.
Sorry dude, wrong again:
The Real Story Podcast today - interview with Roubinin.
Comparing Savings Rates: U.S. vs Japan http://www.wisebread.com/comparing-savings-rates-us-vs-japan
3) Japan is hardly unique in this regard.
No not unique but one of the greatest beneficiaries
4) Perhaps, but Chinese goods are not of the same quality as Japanese goods. Therefore they compete in different markets. Korean firms will feel the competition more strongly.
What I meant is China is developing the technology that they do not need Korea or Japan to produce these goods as they can do it themselves. ..."but Chinese goods are not of the same quality as Japanese goods" ...that's what they use to say about Korean goods compared to Japanese goods.
5) The yen is the strongest major currency (much the dismay of the Japanese) for a good reason: Japan still has a strong manufacturing base and trade surpluses. That is the reality setting in.
No, best of a bad lot, on it's way far down...talk to me in the future. With all the problems it will soon fall as reality sets in.[/b] |
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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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| Posted: Tue May 11, 2010 1:14 am Post subject: |
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| 4 months left wrote: |
| Yes I understand countries borrow from their Central Bank. The U.S. has been monetizing debt through Quantatative Easing which is a nicer sounding phrase than "printing money." Countries issue bonds which other countries buy. Japan's debt is 95% domestic so yes even Japan has foreign buyers of debt. |
And yet most bonds issued by any government (including the US) are to their own central banks. I wasn't disputing that bonds aren't sold to foreign investors either. So what's your point?
Exactly, it's actually an advantage to have a domestic debt over a foreign one. It doesn't mean that Japan's overall debt is any more serious than other countries, and is probably less so.
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| Central Banks also set i rates so the only reason they exist is not just for govt's to borrow money...i guess you don't understand how central banks work. |
Har har. My point was that the only reason the government tolerates the existence of a central bank is so that it can borrow as much as it wants.
Well if this is true, then it sure is recent. Here's a Businessweek article from 2005:
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Certainly the numbers seem to show a savings crisis. Over the past year, the household savings rate has averaged a meager 0.8% of disposable income, the lowest level since the Great Depression. The national savings rate -- which includes corporate savings and government budget deficits -- is only about 13.6% of gross domestic product, also near a postwar low.
According to the conventional wisdom, such low savings rates threaten to undermine America's future. Weak savings means fewer funds are available to invest in productive machinery and equipment, which in turn leads to slowing long-term growth. Moreover, the argument goes, the lack of savings forces the U.S. to borrow heavily from overseas -- driving a growing trade deficit, and leaving the country more dependent on foreign funding that could dry up. And most American families seem to be shelling out far too much on cars and big homes today, rather than socking away enough for retirement.
Americans look especially imprudent when compared with their global rivals. National savings rates in Europe run around 20%, on average, while Japan saves around 25%. |
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3) Japan is hardly unique in this regard.
No not unique but one of the greatest beneficiaries |
Well, all the more the reason to conclude that Japan is doing relatively well.
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4) Perhaps, but Chinese goods are not of the same quality as Japanese goods. Therefore they compete in different markets. Korean firms will feel the competition more strongly.
What I meant is China is developing the technology that they do not need Korea or Japan to produce these goods as they can do it themselves. ..."but Chinese goods are not of the same quality as Japanese goods" ...that's what they use to say about Korean goods compared to Japanese goods. |
Korean goods are still not a threat to Japan. Moreover, I'm not sure you really understand how it works in China and SE Asia. The Japanese basically send in their firms, which invest a whole bunch of money in joint ventures, half-owned by domestic partners. The Japanese provide the technology and training and grease the palms, and the locals cover the legal requirements, manage the labor, and share in the profits. The Japanese are good at fostering these types of business relations, and are by far the biggest players in Asia and this is unlikely to change anytime soon.
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5) The yen is the strongest major currency (much the dismay of the Japanese) for a good reason: Japan still has a strong manufacturing base and trade surpluses. That is the reality setting in.
No, best of a bad lot, on it's way far down...talk to me in the future. With all the problems it will soon fall as reality sets in.[/b] |
What do you mean it's way far down?? The yen is a monster - every time there's a market panic of some sort, the yen shoots up (it also has to do with yen carry trade). I actually used to travel to Japan fairly often, but it's more expensive now to change my money into yen, so I go less often. |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Tue May 11, 2010 3:32 am Post subject: |
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1) My point was that almost every country issues foreign debt. I took from your point that it is uncommon to borrow from other countries... maybe my misinterpretation.
3) the more the reason to conclude that Japan is doing relatively well ... ... Japan WAS doing relatively well, China's stock market is in a bear market, 60% of China's GDP comes from contstruction...FROM AN EVER EXAPANDING HOUSING BUBBLE WHICH IS GOING TO POP. Japan needs China to export to which is fading fast. Japan can't sustain itself on domestic consumption. Every country wants to export its way out of recession which is obviously impossible, especially with the recent Euro contagion.
2) The Japanese provide the technology and training ... exactly what China wants. They learn the technology and then no longer need Japan and Korea. Is it going to happen overnight....no ... but it is happening. You have to look at the future, not the past.
4) Korean goods are still not a threat to Japan ... Korean cars and TV's aren't doing well on the world market compared to Japanese???? Maybe you're looking at 2005 stats again.
5) The yen is a monster The yen and the dollar WERE monsters. You're looking too much in the past and not to the future. Sure they may have a little left in them but their best days are behind them if you look at the economic fundamentals in those countries.
Last edited by 4 months left on Tue May 11, 2010 4:43 am; edited 1 time in total |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Tue May 11, 2010 4:16 am Post subject: |
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| 4 months, not to be a dick, but can you use a better format for your responses? It's a little hard to read. |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Tue May 11, 2010 4:44 am Post subject: |
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| caniff wrote: |
| 4 months, not to be a dick, but can you use a better format for your responses? It's a little hard to read. |
There we go, didn't put them in bold the first time. |
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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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| Posted: Tue May 11, 2010 6:03 am Post subject: |
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| 4 months left wrote: |
| 3) the more the reason to conclude that Japan is doing relatively well ... ... Japan WAS doing relatively well, China's stock market is in a bear market, 60% of China's GDP comes from contstruction...FROM AN EVER EXAPANDING HOUSING BUBBLE WHICH IS GOING TO POP. Japan needs China to export to which is fading fast. Japan can't sustain itself on domestic consumption. Every country wants to export its way out of recession which is obviously impossible, especially with the recent Euro contagion. |
Yes, I agree with this fully. I guess where I diverge is that I see Japan as being more stable than the US or Europe, or other industrialized countries. The reason being that Japan is already used to the sort of austerity that comes after a bubble (and Japan's bubble was insanely big), yet they're still plugging away and producing good products that only get cheaper over time (as the rest of the world undergoes inflation). The rest of the world is in for a huge shock, whereas Japan has already taken the plunge. Still, there is no doubt that Japan will suffer along with everyone else.
| Quote: |
| 2) The Japanese provide the technology and training ... exactly what China wants. They learn the technology and then no longer need Japan and Korea. Is it going to happen overnight....no ... but it is happening. You have to look at the future, not the past. |
Actually I disagree here. In my opinion China is largely a captive market - having the corrupt, oppressive government that it does stifles innovation. I can't really think of any examples of the Chinese innovating anything in recent times. All they really have to offer is a cheap (and relatively competent) work force and a large market, as well as a pretty good infrastructure. But I really don't believe they will overtake Japan in terms of technology or innovation anytime soon.
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| 4) Korean goods are still not a threat to Japan ... Korean cars and TV's aren't doing well on the world market compared to Japanese???? Maybe you're looking at 2005 stats again. |
No, actually they're not. I mean, they're doing well relatively I suppose, but collectively Japanese firms utterly dwarf Korean ones. Compare Samsung and LG to Sony, Toshiba, Panasonic, Hitachi, Fujitsu, Sanyo, Pioneer, Canon, JVC, Epson, Sharp et al. and you will see there is no comparison. Now do the same for Hyundai and Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Suzuki, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Subaru, and Isuzu. The Japanese are very dominant in Asia, and indeed the world.
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| 5) The yen is a monster The yen and the dollar WERE monsters. You're looking too much in the past and not to the future. Sure they may have a little left in them but their best days are behind them if you look at the economic fundamentals in those countries. |
Well I guess we'll just have to disagree. I see the yen as being the strongest currency around by far, for the simple reason that Japanese products are good quality and consistently in demand. This may change in the future of course (as if any of us can predict that exactly), but by then we may be looking at a world economy unrecognizable to the one we have now (ie. fully collapsed or with a new global monetary system). |
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jaykimf
Joined: 24 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Tue May 11, 2010 8:58 am Post subject: |
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| 4 months left wrote: |
| jaykimf wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
After birth-death and census hiring it was 36,000. Adjusting further for other governmental hiring brings it down to 5k.
Yay. |
Perhaps you could explain what the problem with the birth-death model is. I'm not quite following it. |
The birth-death rate model adds THEORETICAL jobs in bad economic times and subtracts jobs in good times. So the government says that SME's are adding jobs to the ecomomy at this time. |
No, that's not what your source said. It said the model overestimates job growth when job growth is deteriorating from its recent historical trend and conversely, underestimates jobs when the situation is improving. Granted that the estimates may be inaccurate during periods of business cycle inflection, since we have had several years of massive job losses and the situation is now improving, the model should actually be at the point where it is underestimating job growth. Even if jobs were not being created, that would still be a big improvement over the massive job losses over the past several years. I'm perfectly willing to be convinced that I'm wrong but you're going to have to come up with something more convincing than the simple fact that the estimates are based on an economic model. Show me that the model is overestimating job growth and not underestimating it. |
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jaykimf
Joined: 24 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Tue May 11, 2010 9:22 am Post subject: |
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Honestly, I don't remember making any comment at all concerning JPM's alleged manipulation of the silver market. Feel free to refresh my memory as where I called that your conspiracy theory. I do remember you stating that you assume any claim made by the government is a lie. If the government claims JPM manipulated the silver market, then you must be assuming the government is lying. Stick your fingers in your ears and scream: THEY'RE LYING. As for me, I make no assumptions about whether JPM is guilty or innocent. I have no way of knowing. Likewise , I have no way of knowing whether the birth death model is currently over or under estimating job growth. You can make any assumptions you want. I'm waiting to be convinced by something more substantial than knee jerk rants. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Tue May 11, 2010 2:16 pm Post subject: |
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Aren't you clever!
What did you learn about the birth death model? Have you figured it out? Next step is to search for revisions when data has been gathered. Then, compare the revision/estimate gap with the election cycle. I estimate this will take you a month. Report back. |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Tue May 11, 2010 6:08 pm Post subject: |
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| jaykimf wrote: |
| 4 months left wrote: |
| jaykimf wrote: |
| mises wrote: |
After birth-death and census hiring it was 36,000. Adjusting further for other governmental hiring brings it down to 5k.
Yay. |
Perhaps you could explain what the problem with the birth-death model is. I'm not quite following it. |
The birth-death rate model adds THEORETICAL jobs in bad economic times and subtracts jobs in good times. So the government says that SME's are adding jobs to the ecomomy at this time. |
No, that's not what your source said. It said the model overestimates job growth when job growth is deteriorating from its recent historical trend and conversely, underestimates jobs when the situation is improving. Granted that the estimates may be inaccurate during periods of business cycle inflection, since we have had several years of massive job losses and the situation is now improving, the model should actually be at the point where it is underestimating job growth. Even if jobs were not being created, that would still be a big improvement over the massive job losses over the past several years. I'm perfectly willing to be convinced that I'm wrong but you're going to have to come up with something more convincing than the simple fact that the estimates are based on an economic model. Show me that the model is overestimating job growth and not underestimating it. |
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| I'm perfectly willing to be convinced that I'm wrong but you're going to have to come up with something more convincing than the simple fact that the estimates are based on an economic model. Show me that the model is overestimating job growth and not underestimating it. |
Any more questions?????
Labor Dept pains in the birth-death jobs model
WASHINGTON Fri Feb 5, 2010 9:42am ESTWASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Labor Department on Friday blamed faulty estimates of how many companies were created or destroyed for its unusually large revision to payrolls that showed job losses were considerably steeper than first thought.
Once a year, the Labor Department compares its payroll data with unemployment insurance tax reports and releases a "benchmark revision" that adjusts for discrepancies.
Normally the difference is relatively modest. This time, the Labor Department revised the level of employment for December 2009 down by 1.39 million, bringing the total number of jobs lost since the start of the recession to 8.4 million.
The primary culprit behind that huge revision was the so-called "birth-death" model, a method the Labor Department uses to try to estimate how many jobs were gained or lost because of companies opening or closing in a given month.
While economists have long questioned the accuracy of the model, it had performed well up until the latest recession.
This time, it overstated job creation by 779,000 in the year that ended in March 2009. The Labor Department also revised its monthly jobs data for April through December 2009, and found the birth-death model had overstated job creation by another 405,000
"The pronounced recession led to a breakdown in that stability from March 2008 to March 2009," the Labor Department said in an article posted on its website, detailing the massive revisions. The article is available here: www.bls.gov/web/cesbmart.htm
"These errors started to grow in the fourth quarter of 2008 and got significantly larger in the first quarter of 2009," the Labor Department said.
CONVINCED YET??? .. or do you want me to get Obama to give you a call??
Last edited by 4 months left on Tue May 11, 2010 6:38 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Tue May 11, 2010 6:24 pm Post subject: |
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Jobs Increase by 290,000; Unemployment Rate Rises to 9.9%; A Look at the Details
This morning the BLS reported an increase of 290,000 jobs. Headline unemployment rose to 9.9%. Hidden beneath the surface the BLS Black Box - Birth Death Model added 188,000 jobs. However, as I have pointed out many times before, the Birth/Death numbers cannot be subtracted straight up to get a raw number. It contributed to this months employment total for sure, but the BLS will not disclose by how much.
This month there were 66,000 temporary census workers added to the payrolls. That number can directly be subtracted. Interestingly, the details show only 59,000 government jobs in total were added. That means, states have cut back 73,000 jobs. Expect this trend to continue.
Next month is the big census hiring effect where as many as 500,000 temporary workers will be hired. In June through August they will all be fired but that will not stop economists and the administration from crowing about the numbers.
On the whole, this was a decent jobs report, but the birth/death number is quite problematic. I do not buy it. Moreover, the BLS report does not remotely jibe with the ADP April 2010 National Employment Report estimate of 32,000. Someone is wildly off, and I expect that to be the BLS, not ADP.
...Birth/Death Model Revisions
The BLS Birth/Death Model methodology is so screwed and there have been so many revisions and up it is pointless to further comment other than to repeat a few general statements.
Please note that one cannot subtract or add birth death revisions to the reported totals and get a meaningful answer. One set of numbers is seasonally adjusted the other is not. In the black box the BLS combines the two coming out with a total. The Birth Death numbers influence the overall totals but the math is not as simple as it appears and the effect is nowhere near as big as it might logically appear at first glance.
The BLS added massive numbers of jobs every month to its model, all through the recession. Those jobs never existed. Last month the BLS made those revisions to job totals to reflect errors in its Birth/Death model.
BLS Black Box
For those unfamiliar with the birth/death model, monthly jobs adjustments are made by the BLS based on economic assumptions about the birth and death of businesses (not individuals).
Birth/Death assumptions are supposedly made according to estimates of where the BLS thinks we are in the economic cycle. Theory is one thing practice is clearly another.
From Mike Shedlock one of the most reasonable financial writers.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/jobs-increase-by-290000-unemployment.html |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Tue May 11, 2010 11:26 pm Post subject: |
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| visitorq wrote: |
Well I guess we'll just have to disagree. I see the yen as being the strongest currency around by far, for the simple reason that Japanese products are good quality and consistently in demand. This may change in the future of course (as if any of us can predict that exactly), but by then we may be looking at a world economy unrecognizable to the one we have now (ie. fully collapsed or with a new global monetary system). |
Is Japan "The Greece of The East"?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1491596680&play=1 |
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