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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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 Posted: Wed May 12, 2010 12:09 am Post subject: |
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| 4 months left wrote: |
| visitorq wrote: |
Well I guess we'll just have to disagree. I see the yen as being the strongest currency around by far, for the simple reason that Japanese products are good quality and consistently in demand. This may change in the future of course (as if any of us can predict that exactly), but by then we may be looking at a world economy unrecognizable to the one we have now (ie. fully collapsed or with a new global monetary system). |
Is Japan "The Greece of The East"?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1491596680&play=1 |
Japan, the "Greece of the East"??? You've got to be joking... that's seriously one of the most absurd comparison I've ever heard. And CNBC is a total joke too - nothing but a bunch of hired shills whose job it is to peddle lies and lure the sucker public and hoards of day-trader zombies back into the markets each time there's a panic. It's just a blatant propaganda arm for Wall Street. This is the same network that brings us "Mad Money" with Jim Cramer... It's an absolute FARCE.
Anyway, my well deserved trashing of CNBC aside, the fact of the matter is that Japan's overall (public + external) debt isn't really all that alarming compared to that of other countries, and is actually lower than European nations like the UK (which has external debt pushing 400% of GDP). Focusing only on Japan's higher internal debt is meaningless.
Lastly, and it should go without saying, Japan is simply nothing like Greece. Japan is an economic superpower with many, many world-beating, highly profitable companies. Japan also has a positive balance of trade most years. So let's get real now. |
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jaykimf
Joined: 24 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed May 12, 2010 8:08 am Post subject: |
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| 4 months left wrote: |
CONVINCED YET??? .. or do you want me to get Obama to give you a call?? |
Yup, I'm completely convinced that the model overestimated job growth in 2008 and 2009 when the job market dramatically deteriorated. Now that the economy is improving, is the model continuing to overestimate growth or is it now underestimating growth? When the April jobs report came out, it was also announced that Feb. and March job growth had been revised upward, which would seem to indicate that the model had initially underestimated growth. So it seems possible that the April figure might also turn out to have been underestimated.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/S-Q6vHkqoSI/AAAAAAAAIZU/9lfNGknnQRw/s1600/nonfarm-payroll-2010-04.png |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Wed May 12, 2010 8:40 am Post subject: |
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| ^ It hasn't been a month. Keep learning. |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Thu May 13, 2010 2:18 am Post subject: |
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| jaykimf wrote: |
| 4 months left wrote: |
CONVINCED YET??? .. or do you want me to get Obama to give you a call?? |
Yup, I'm completely convinced that the model overestimated job growth in 2008 and 2009 when the job market dramatically deteriorated. Now that the economy is improving, is the model continuing to overestimate growth or is it now underestimating growth? When the April jobs report came out, it was also announced that Feb. and March job growth had been revised upward, which would seem to indicate that the model had initially underestimated growth. So it seems possible that the April figure might also turn out to have been underestimated.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/S-Q6vHkqoSI/AAAAAAAAIZU/9lfNGknnQRw/s1600/nonfarm-payroll-2010-04.png |
Completely irrelevant. There were many revisions in the time period of the overstatement. If you believe gov't statistics then I've got some swamp land in Jeju to sell you.
Governments manipulate statistics to their benefit. In the 80s the gov't decided to report unemployment from U6 to U3 ... so if this was going on in the 80s, the umemployment rate would be 17.1% or over 20% as reported on Shadowstats.com.
Mises wrote:
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| ^ It hasn't been a month. Keep learning. |
+1 |
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Jane
Joined: 01 Feb 2003
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Fri May 28, 2010 5:42 am Post subject: |
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| visitorq wrote: |
Well I guess we'll just have to disagree. I see the yen as being the strongest currency around by far, for the simple reason that Japanese products are good quality and consistently in demand. This may change in the future of course (as if any of us can predict that exactly), but by then we may be looking at a world economy unrecognizable to the one we have now (ie. fully collapsed or with a new global monetary system). |
Japan Sliding Into Dodecatuple Dip Recession
A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, fundamentals used to matter. In this place tonight's news that Japan is slipping back into its +/-20th sequential recession would have resulted in a plunge in the Nikkei, and a lot of overtime work for the Japanese plunge protection team, which unlike its US equivalent, does not hide in the shadows, and is well-known to intervene when equities plummet. Earlier, Japan announced that not only did its jobless rate increase more than the expected 5%, hitting 5.1%, once again openly starting on its one way trek to the record 5.6% achieved at the trough of the crisis, but deflation also picked up, hitting -1.5% in April (and where prices did not fall, they were supported by government subsidies), and completing the trifecta was that household spending came in at -0.7%, after estimates called for a 2.5% increase after the 4.4% prior reading. Instead, in our current galaxy, the Nikkei was up 1.5% because China said that it would not sell its European bonds, an act which would have brought the euro to parity and slashed the value of China's trillions in foreign reserves by about 10% overnight (also, the fact that a dollar-strapped BOJ demanded $200 million in FX swaps from the Fed was certainly also not lost on the market). Gee, it is truly shocking they did not confirm they are selling their German bond holdings. After all, even PIMCO is liquidating its European exposure: we would contend that China is not all that much dumber than Bill Gross.
From Bloomberg:
Finance Minister Naoto Kan cited �severe� job prospects this week as one factor that has kep kept the government from upgrading its assessment of the economy since March.
A separate government report today showed the ratio of jobs to applicants fell to 0.48, meaning there are 48 jobs for every 100 candidates. It was the first deterioration in the measure in eight months.
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co. aims to reduce its workforce by about 10 percent, it said this month. Asia�s largest drugmaker wants to save 50 billion yen ($550 million) over three years.
Japanese retailers continue to cut prices to spur consumer spending. Nitori Co., a furniture retailer, this week said it will lower prices of about 500 items by as much as 40 percent - - the company�s ninth round of discounts since 2008.
�Spending on some items, such as cars and home electrical appliances, are robust thanks to government subsidies, but consumers are still penny-pinching for everyday products,� said Daiwa Research�s Watanabe.
But can't Japan just print, print, print and stimulate inflation? Well, not really... remember that whole 200% debt/GDP thing?
The Bank of Japan has faced pressure to fight deflation from the government, whose ability to spur the economy is constrained by record public debt. Kan has been urging the bank to adopt an inflation target, and last week repeated that he expects it to support the recovery.
Central bank Governor Masaaki Shirakawa this week warned against becoming too fixated on prices when setting policy. Central banks should aim to achieve a stable financial environment that helps sustain growth, and price stability is �not the sole factor,� he said.
Japan's deflationary collapse has been blamed on the BOJ for not having taken the same abrupt and dramatic QE measures that the Fed has rushed into. On one hand, that is true, and is the reason why instead of burning out on a short-term sugar high, Japan has now seen twenty years of economic decline. On the other hand, it means that America will never hit Japan's sad record of 2 lost decades, as the Fed has already shot 5 out of 6 bullets in its gun. As Bob Janjuah pointed out earlier today, there is just one bullet left. And we have a feeling before all is said and down, instead of shooting the ever angrier bear, which is getting closer by the minute, Bernanke may decide to play Russian roulette instead. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Fri May 28, 2010 5:51 am Post subject: |
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Japan needs a stimulus. Have they tried that?
I don't share VQ's optimistic forecast for Japan. |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Fri May 28, 2010 6:18 am Post subject: |
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Thanks for the article, used it in my class. |
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rollo
Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China
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| Posted: Fri May 28, 2010 3:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Japans exports were up 40% this quarter. Their economy is reviving. |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Fri May 28, 2010 5:34 pm Post subject: |
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| rollo wrote: |
| Japans exports were up 40% this quarter. Their economy is reviving. |
You're looking in the rear view mirror, you have to look at the future. The YoY increase is from the base effect - meaning it's compared to an extremely low base of last year (which was the height of the financial crisis.)
China is in a bear market and a massive housing bubble ready to pop. The rest of the world rolling over from massive stimulus. Remember, China spent $2.6 trillion on stimulus and bank loans which is half of its $5 trillion annual economy.
Japan GDP Growth
Japan's economy grew at an annualized 4.9% in Q1 2010, below consensus estimates of 5.5%, but on par with a revised Q4 2009 growth figure of 4.2%. Japan's economy has made a decent bounce-back over the past year, driven largely by international trade; showing a continued reliance of the Japanese economy on exporting. However much of the recovery thus far has been driven by export demand from China (relating to stimulus spending), and more broadly from inventory rebuilding (inventory cycle). Thus much of it to date has been somewhat artificial- it's almost coming down to a question of whether international trade will make a solid and broad based recovery as to whether Japan's economic recovery will be cemented. But then there's also deflation issues and fiscal challenges.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/206477-top-5-graphs-of-the-week-gdp-and-inflation-update
(Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic growth fell to a 39-week low in the latest week, pointing to a slowdown in economic growth, a research group said on Friday.
The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 125.6 in the week ended May 21, down from a revised 127.2 the previous week, originally reported as 127.3.
That was the lowest level since Aug. 21, 2009, when the index stood at 125.3.
The index's annualized growth rate tumbled to a 47-week low of 5.1 percent from 9.0 percent a week ago. That's the worst level since June 26, 2009, when it stood at 4.6 percent.
"The downturn in WLI growth evident since early 2010 has recently intensified, so it should be no surprise when U.S. economic growth slows noticeably in the months ahead," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI. |
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4 months left
Joined: 07 Feb 2003
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| Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2010 3:26 am Post subject: |
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| visitorq wrote: |
| The whole world is a mess. Yet Japan is in good shape as long as exports keep it afloat. |
Japan PM warns of Greece-like debt crisis
Japan's new premier warns of Greece-like debt crisis if action not taken
TOKYO (AP) -- Japan could face a financial mess like the one that has crippled Greece if it does not deal urgently with its swelling national debt, the new prime minister warned Friday.
While Japan is on firmer financial footing than Greece because most of its debt is held domestically, Prime Minister Naoto Kan's blunt talk appeared designed to push forward his agenda, which may involve raising taxes.
Speaking in his first address to Parliament after taking office Tuesday, Kan said Japan cannot continue to let government debt swell while state finances are under pressure from an aging and declining population.
"It is difficult to sustain a policy that relies too heavily on issuing debt. As we have seen with the financial confusion in the European community stemming from Greece, our finances could collapse if trust in national bonds is lost and growing national debt is left alone," he said.
Japan, the world's second-largest economy, has the largest public debt among industrialized nations at 218.6 percent of its gross domestic product in 2009, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Kan, who became Japan's sixth prime minister in four years after a short stint as finance minister, promised his government would work closely with the Bank of Japan to avoid an increase in deflation and would focus on developing a "strong and comprehensive" policy.
Kan has said he will also consider raising taxes, an issue he said previous governments had been too timid to face. A social progressive and a fiscal hawk, Kan said he would announce further details of his economic growth plan later this month.
But he said he aims to have the economy grow by more than 2 percent annually by fiscal 2020.
After amassing a vast public debt and overspending to the tune of 13.6 percent of gross domestic product in 2009, Greece was saved from defaulting on its loans by the first installment of a euro110 billion ($131 billion) rescue package from the International Monetary Fund and the 15 other nations that share the euro currency.
Analysts said Kan's warning comparison with the recent development in Greece is an overstatement, since the Japanese investors who hold the majority of the government's debt are seen as long-term stakeholders who are less likely to bolt for other, more lucrative markets overseas.
"Greece had a huge public debt and huge overseas loans," said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse Japan. "Japan has a trade surplus, and it's a major creditor nation ... I don't think Japan's fiscal conditions is facing a similar crisis."
Instead of focusing too much on fiscal tightening, Kan should simply focus on growth strategy that works for Japan's matured economy as the nation's population continues to age and shrink, he added.
Kan's predecessor abruptly quit last week after he failed to keep a campaign promise to move the Marine Corps Air Station Futenma off the southern island of Okinawa.
Kan is enjoying a jolt of public support, with approval ratings of between 60 and 70 percent boding well for his party heading into next month's elections.
His Democratic Party is considering a July 11 date for the polls, but that has caused a row with their coalition partner and prompted its leader to announce in the early hours Friday his resignation from a Cabinet post. The junior coalition party wants instead to extend the current parliamentary session to vote on a key postal reform bill. |
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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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| Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2010 5:03 am Post subject: |
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| mises wrote: |
Japan needs a stimulus. Have they tried that?
I don't share VQ's optimistic forecast for Japan. |
How was I being "optimistic" exactly? I specifically said Japan is going to be screwed along with the rest of the world as the full breadth of this Greatest Depression unfolds. I'm merely stating the common sense fact that Japan still has its industrial and manufacturing base, which means they're in better shape than average (for now). They're still producing (and selling) cars and electronics aplenty, which means the yen can actually still be used to buy real stuff, as opposed to just investing it into more bonds and derivatives etc. (ie the US dollar).
Japan's 200% domestic debt to GDP is a serious problem, but still a lot better than, say, the UK's 400%+ external debt to GDP. Japan will most certainly not be the next country to go the toilet (like Greece and Iceland), nor the next after that. It will probably be one of the last standing. If Dave's were a casino, I'd bet money on that statement... |
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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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| Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2010 5:11 am Post subject: |
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| 4 months left wrote: |
"While Japan is on firmer financial footing than Greece because most of its debt is held domestically, Prime Minister Naoto Kan's blunt talk appeared designed to push forward his agenda, which may involve raising taxes." |
Enough said. |
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Captain Corea
Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2010 5:35 am Post subject: |
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| visitorq wrote: |
| 4 months left wrote: |
| visitorq wrote: |
Well I guess we'll just have to disagree. I see the yen as being the strongest currency around by far, for the simple reason that Japanese products are good quality and consistently in demand. This may change in the future of course (as if any of us can predict that exactly), but by then we may be looking at a world economy unrecognizable to the one we have now (ie. fully collapsed or with a new global monetary system). |
Is Japan "The Greece of The East"?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1491596680&play=1 |
Japan, the "Greece of the East"??? You've got to be joking... that's seriously one of the most absurd comparison I've ever heard. And CNBC is a total joke too - nothing but a bunch of hired shills whose job it is to peddle lies and lure the sucker public and hoards of day-trader zombies back into the markets each time there's a panic. It's just a blatant propaganda arm for Wall Street. This is the same network that brings us "Mad Money" with Jim Cramer... It's an absolute FARCE.
Anyway, my well deserved trashing of CNBC aside, the fact of the matter is that Japan's overall (public + external) debt isn't really all that alarming compared to that of other countries, and is actually lower than European nations like the UK (which has external debt pushing 400% of GDP). Focusing only on Japan's higher internal debt is meaningless.
Lastly, and it should go without saying, Japan is simply nothing like Greece. Japan is an economic superpower with many, many world-beating, highly profitable companies. Japan also has a positive balance of trade most years. So let's get real now. |
Odd, because the leader of Japan disagrees with you.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/10290933.stm
| Quote: |
| Japan PM Naoto Kan warns of 'collapse' under debt pile |
Why not fly over there and school him about how you know Japan better than he does? |
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.38 Special
Joined: 08 Jul 2009
Location: Pennsylvania
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| Posted: Fri Jun 11, 2010 6:06 am Post subject: |
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| Captain Corea wrote: |
Why not fly over there and school him about how you know Japan better than he does? |
I once attempted just that! Alas, they laughed me right out of Tokyo when I suggested a surefire strategy for defeating Godzilla.
Who will save Tokyo now??  |
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