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Key oil figures were distorted
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Senior

Joined: 31 Jan 2010

Posted: Wed Jul 28, 2010 7:48 am Post subject:

mises wrote:

Senior wrote:

This thread was referenced some where else, so I thought I would revive it.

It is probably true that peak oil could become a major problem. We will need to find a replacement for oil at some stage regardless. The length of time it takes the market to provide a solution will be the determining factor in whether we come out relatively unscathed or severely impacted. The outcome lies some where along that continuum. It isn't a given that the world economy will be completely destroyed by peak oil.

As for a govt response? You can probably guess my answer, but forty years of govt trying to replace oil, hasn't made me at all confident that they are in any danger of solving it in the next forty years.

Here's good discussion of oil demand and production. Peak may have been hit in production and demand will continue to increase.

http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/6765

I agree with Futurepundit that solar is likely to play a strong role:

http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/007362.html

Solar power is my bet for a solution to the energy question. The technology is rapidly advancing:

http://www.futurepundit.com/archives/cat_energy_solar.html

Cheers, will have a browse tomorrow.

It seems unlikely that anything OTHER than solar will be the long term fix. Oil is essentially fossilized sun light. Why not get it straight from the source?

mises

Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

Posted: Thu Oct 28, 2010 7:33 am Post subject:

http://edition.cnn.com/2010/US/10/27/alaska.oil.reserves/index.html

Quote:

(CNN) -- The U.S. Geological Survey says a revised estimate for the amount of conventional, undiscovered oil in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska is a fraction of a previous estimate.

The group estimates about 896 million barrels of such oil are in the reserve, about 90 percent less than a 2002 estimate of 10.6 billion barrels.

The new estimate is mainly due to the incorporation of new data from recent exploration drilling revealing gas occurrence rather than oil in much of the area, the geological survey said.

90% !!

mises

Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

Posted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 10:24 am Post subject:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/opinion/a-brave-new-world-of-fossil-fuels-on-demand/article1871149/

Quote:

In September, a privately held and highly secretive U.S. biotech company named Joule Unlimited received a patent for �a proprietary organism� � a genetically adapted E. coli bacterium � that feeds solely on carbon dioxide and excretes liquid hydrocarbons: diesel fuel, jet fuel and gasoline. This breakthrough technology, the company says, will deliver renewable supplies of liquid fossil fuel almost anywhere on Earth, in essentially unlimited quantity and at an energy-cost equivalent of $30 (U.S.) a barrel of crude oil. It will deliver, the company says, �fossil fuels on demand.�

We�re not talking �biofuels� � not, at any rate, in the usual sense of the word. The Joule technology requires no �feedstock,� no corn, no wood, no garbage, no algae. Aside from hungry, gene-altered micro-organisms, it requires only carbon dioxide and sunshine to manufacture crude. And water: whether fresh, brackish or salt. With these �inputs,� it mimics photosynthesis, the process by which green leaves use solar energy to convert carbon dioxide into organic compounds. Indeed, the company describes its manufacture of fossil fuels as �artificial photosynthesis.�

Joule says it now has �a library� of fossil-fuel organisms at work in its Massachusetts labs, each engineered to produce a different fuel. It has �proven the process,� has produced ethanol (for example) at a rate equivalent to 10,000 U.S. gallons an acre a year. It anticipates that this yield could hit 25,000 gallons an acre a year when scaled for commercial production, equivalent to roughly 800 barrels of crude an acre a year.

By way of comparison, Cornell University�s David Pimentel, an authority on ethanol, says that one acre of corn produces less than half as much energy, equivalent to only 328 barrels. If a few hundred barrels of crude sounds modest, recall that millions of acres of prime U.S. farmland are now used to make corn ethanol.

Joule says its �solar converter� technology makes the manufacture of liquid fossil fuels 50 times as efficient as conventional biofuel production � and eliminates as much as 90 per cent of carbon dioxide emissions. �Requiring only sunlight and waste C0{-2},� it says, �[this] technology can produce virtually unlimited quantities of fossil fuels with zero dependence on raw materials, agricultural land, crops or fresh water. It ends the hazards of oil exploration and oil production. It takes us to the unthinkable: liquid hydrocarbons on demand.�

http://biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2010/08/23/joule-unlimited-fuel-from-thin-air-comes-closer-clearer/

This would be a big deal.

Space Bar

Joined: 20 Oct 2010

Posted: Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:20 am Post subject:

mises wrote:

http://biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2010/08/23/joule-unlimited-fuel-from-thin-air-comes-closer-clearer/

This would be a big deal.

Mises, can you let us know if and when Joule Unlimited goes public?

caniff

Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map

Posted: Thu Jan 20, 2011 12:30 am Post subject:

^The only way I could see that flying is if you allow the flight leaders to wet their beaks. Alot. And often.

mises

Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 7:02 am Post subject:

http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-01-italian-scientists-cold-fusion-video.html

Quote:

Despite the intense skepticism, a small community of scientists is still investigating near-room-temperature fusion reactions. The latest news occurred last week, when Italian scientists Andrea Rossi and Sergio Focardi of the University of Bologna announced that they developed a cold fusion device capable of producing 12,400 W of heat power with an input of just 400 W. Last Friday, the scientists held a private invitation press conference in Bologna, attended by about 50 people, where they demonstrated what they claim is a nickel-hydrogen fusion reactor. Further, the scientists say that the reactor is well beyond the research phase; they plan to start shipping commercial devices within the next three months and start mass production by the end of 2011.

An Italian Hwang Woo-suk or real advancement?

comm

Joined: 22 Jun 2010

Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 9:19 am Post subject:

mises wrote:

http://biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/2010/08/23/joule-unlimited-fuel-from-thin-air-comes-closer-clearer/

This would be a big deal.

I believe synthetic organisms will solve many of what today seem like insurmountable problems. However, by the facts involved in the article (such as replication time) I could see this little bug killing the majority of life on Earth in a very short time frame. But I'm an optimist, so we'll see Very Happy

Kuros

Joined: 27 Apr 2004

Posted: Sun Jan 23, 2011 12:39 pm Post subject:

mises wrote:

http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-01-italian-scientists-cold-fusion-video.html

Quote:

An Italian Hwang Woo-suk or real advancement?

I think a comparison to Hwang Woo-suk is unfair, because at last Hwang's lies were remotely credible on their face.

I simply cannot believe someone has discovered cold fusion. It is a pipe dream and impossible (by which I mean out of our generation's reach).

caniff

Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map

Posted: Tue Jan 25, 2011 12:14 am Post subject:

Quote:

University of Bologna

mises

Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

Posted: Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:19 pm Post subject:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks

Quote:

The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show.

The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels � nearly 40%.

Kuwait was overvalued by about half. Saudi at 40% isn't surprising.

caniff

Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map

Posted: Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:47 pm Post subject:

^Same idea:

http://www.zerohedge.com/

Quote:

In what can be the "Holy Grail" moment for the peak oil movement, Wikileaks has just released 4 cables that may confirm that as broadly speculated by the peak oil "fringe", the theories about an imminent crude crunch may be in fact true. As the Guardian reports on 4 just declassified cables, "The US fears that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude oil exporter, may not have enough reserves to prevent oil prices escalating, confidential cables from its embassy in Riyadh show. The cables, released by WikiLeaks, urge Washington to take seriously a warning from a senior Saudi government oil executive that the kingdom's crude oil reserves may have been overstated by as much as 300bn barrels � nearly 40%." Could the OPEC cartel's capacity for virtually unlimited supply expansion to keep up with demand have been nothing but a bluff? That is the case according to Sadad al-Husseini, a geologist and former head of exploration at the Saudi oil monopoly Aramco....

mises

Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

Posted: Wed Feb 09, 2011 12:19 am Post subject:

This means that Canada has the largest - audited - proven reserves.

mises

Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

Posted: Tue Mar 01, 2011 6:52 am Post subject:

http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/blog/against-grain/opec-sources-saudi-arabia-worried-about-strife-will-let-oil-rise-to-120/943/?tag=col1;fd-banner-news

Quote:

Saudi Arabia won�t take significant steps to bring down the price of crude oil until Brent, the grade traded most on the open market, reaches $120 a barrel, about 8 percent above current levels. That�s the conclusion of an internal report prepared by a major investment firm based on information from its extensive and knowledgeable contacts within OPEC.

In the report, which was made available to MoneyWatch on the condition that the firm not be named because briefings with its contacts are off the record, the OPEC sources reiterate their earlier analysis of the oil market, which has proven to be on the nose. They contend that the delicate political situation across the Middle East and North Africa - including the fragile state of affairs within Saudi borders - is preventing the kingdom from doing the sensible economic thing and increasing production to keep prices under control:

�They stressed then, and they continue to stress today, that economics is the wrong way to look at the problem for now. That was 10 days before Egypt�s crisis escalated. . . . Saudi Arabia will only add significant extra oil volumes in the event of an actual disruption elsewhere. Iran is publicly stating that $120 per barrel is a fair price and, again, the Saudis do not want to risk being accused of being pro-West. That is regardless of the argument that $120 per barrel may undermine global growth and oil demand. That is not the critical issue today.�

Saudi authorities were reported to have raised output late last week to compensate for supply disruptions in Libya, but if the investment firm�s sources are right, as they have been since unrest in the region was in its initial phase, the Saudi move may not be as big or as prolonged as many expect. The firm�s report indicates that Saudi leaders have other concerns that would persuade them to take less robust steps than usual to stabilize oil prices:

�The main threat is . . . Saudi instability when the current king dies. We know he is very ill but obviously there is no indication of how critical that condition is. But it is acknowledged that the next transition will present a much bigger threat to internal stability. . . . Vested interest groups have been waiting for this transition to push their agenda. Saudi experienced considerable regional instability up to 10 years ago but bought it off with higher oil-based spending. Today the problem is as bad, if not worse. There have been only a few of the promised reforms. . . . Resentment towards the wealth gap with the royals is very high. . . . Even if/when the instability in other countries, such as Libya, settles, the Saudi succession threat is now firmly on the table. What happens in Bahrain could be very key. That alone will keep the oil market nervous for this year.�

With household finances already stretched in the US the high price of energy will cause major problems.

I don't believe Saudi can turn up production they way it claims it can.

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