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catman
Joined: 18 Jul 2004
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 Posted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 2:09 pm Post subject: All hail Dear General |
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Everyone in North Korea knows the birth of dictator Kim Jong-il was announced by a bright star and a double rainbow, while a swallow descending from heaven heralded the arrival of "a general who will rule the world."
What no one really knows is how it is all going to end.
The politics of dynastic succession are once again haunting North Korea, threatening to plunge the Far East into chaos and bloodshed.
For 69 years, Kim Jong-il, a ruthless pudgy demigod, has been one of the most idolized men in the world. To most North Koreans the mere presence of "Dear Leader" can cause fruit trees to bloom in winter and make snow melt.
A "genius of 10,000 talents," he allegedly wrote 1,500 books during four years at university; shot 11 holes in one the first time he played golf and is "praised by mankind as the most outstanding political elder and a peerlessly brilliant commander."
He is also a totalitarian tyrant, who enslaved and starved his people, runs a political gulag as ruthless as Stalin's and taunts the world with nuclear weapons.
A fat man in a country frequented by famine, Dear Leader has bought more top-of-the-line Hennessy cognac than anyone else in the world; imported "pleasure squads" of Swedish blondes to satisfy his lust; and, supposedly, injected himself with the blood of virgins to stay young and healthy.
Still, depending on who you believe, he is already dead or dying, afflicted with everything from pancreatic cancer to heart disease, diabetes, dementia and kidney failure, which has left him on dialysis.
It is generally agreed, however, the North Korean dictator had a severe stroke in August 2008 and has never fully recovered.
It's also generally accepted his death could trigger a massive crisis.
A power vacuum at the heart of one of the world's most ruthless regimes may unleash a pent-up power struggle between the North Korean political elite, the bureaucracy and the belligerent military. It could trigger a massive migration of near-starving refugees and will fill the world with a deadly new uncertainty about the security of the country's small nuclear arsenal.
At the very least, Kim Jong-il's death may result in a violent end to Communism's only experiment in dynastic politics.
In a bid to stave off disaster, the North Korean Workers' Party will hold a rare meeting of delegates in two weeks to elect new officers to its "supreme leadership" or central committee and politburo.
The meeting, the first of its kind in 44 years, is slated for "early September" and is likely to end on Sept. 9, the foundation day of the Democratic People's Republic of North Korea.
Speculation is rampant an ailing Kim Jong-il plans to use the conference to designate his youngest son, Kim Jong-un, as his heir.
Some argue the meeting will simply launch a leadership transition that is carefully choreographed to conclude in 2012, the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il's father and North Korea's founder.
Others suggest a sickly Kim Jong-il will only shed some of his workload and give a new measure of authority to Workers' Party leaders in a bid to ensure the eventual succession of his son.
But a transition is definitely under way. And it is taking place just when inter-Korean relations are the worst in decades: military tensions are white-hot after the sinking of the South Korean frigate Chenoan; and North Korea's collapsing economy is bracing for new financial sanctions from the United States at the end of this month.
"There are some increasing views in Seoul that after 20 years of wrongly predicting the demise of North Korea, there's something going on in Pyongyang," says Gordon Flake, executive director of the Mansfield Foundation.
"There are a growing number of people in South Korea who say that we're getting close to the end game here."
The Seoul-based Korea Institute for National Unification (KNU) seems to agree. According to the Chosun Ilbo newspaper, the think tank recently published a report that predicts Kim Jong-il may not survive until 2012 and major unrest is likely to follow his death.
A military coup, riots, massacres and a massive exodus of refugees could easily ensue, it added.
If Kim Jong-il dies before completing a smooth transfer of power, his immediate family could be sidelined in a power struggle in which officials from North Korea's National Defence Commission take control.
"Although there is no need to rush reunification, it is time to prepare for such an event," the report concludes.
This week, Lee Myung-bak, the South Korean President,
announced plans for a new "reunification tax" to prepare for what a Korean Institute of Public Finance report says may be US$5-trillion in costs over 30 years, if North and South Korea reunite by next year.
In the end, Kim Jong-il's dying bid to perpetuate his dynasty by having his youngest son succeed him could become a lightening rod for discontent that sets off a cataclysmic chain reaction.
Few think the 27-year-old has the experience or ability to lead a nation of 24 million.
In a Confucian culture that venerates age and seniority that can be a problem, especially since he has supplanted two older brothers.
Kim Jong-il's oldest son, Kim Jong-nam, 39, lives in virtual exile in Macau. He fell from favour in 2001, when he was caught sneaking into Japan to visit Tokyo's Disneyland on a forged Dominican Republic passport.
His second son, Kim Jongchol, 29, is apparently considered too effeminate by his father and holds a minor post in the Workers' Party's guidance department.
Hardly anyone in or outside North Korea even knew Kim Jong-un existed until two years ago.
Apparently, he attended the International School in Bern, Switzerland, under an assumed name in 1995-98, has some proficiency in English, French and German,
enjoys skiing and watching Hollywood action movies, and is a fan of U.S. professional basketball.
Unlike his father, who spent nearly 25 years being groomed to lead and building ties to top leaders in North Korea, Kim Jong-un still has to prove himself. And that worries people.
Last week, Robert Gates, the U.S. Defence Secretary, suggested Pyongyang's latest round of military belligerence and provocation may be an indication Kim Jong-un "has to earn his stripes with the North Korean military."
"My worry is that that's behind a provocation like the sinking of the Cheonan," he said. "So I think we're very concerned that this may not be the only provocation from the North Koreans."
So far, information on the North Korean succession is speculative and centres on the assumption Kim Jong-un will have to rely on his uncle, Jang Song-taek, Kim Jong-il's brother-in-law, to serve as a quasi-regent.
Mr. Jang disappeared in a purge in 2004 but was later re-instated as head of the country's security police. Last year he became the second ranking official on the National Defence Commission, after Kim Jong-il.
"Jang Song-taek is likely to advocate a hard-line conservative domestic policy, emphasizing a resurrection of the planned economy and enhancing the role of various internal security organizations," says Park Hyeong-jung of the KNU.
"He is likely to continue to try to restrain the influence of the military in policy decision-making and in the country's economy."
But the bottom line is that Kim Jong-un's weakness and inexperience may invite faction fights and instability.
Still, North Korea appears to be preparing a new propaganda campaign touting his suitability to "uphold the succession of generations."
Won Sei-hoon, South Korea's National Intelligence Service chief, recently told a closed-door session of the National Assembly a large-scale campaign is under way in North Korea to hail and praise Kim Jong-un, who is now being called the "Dear General."
This week, the shortwave radio station Open Radio for North Korea reported 10 million portraits of Kim Jong-un are being mass produced for distribution as soon as the Workers' Party Congress ends.
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LGSakers
Joined: 23 Jul 2010
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| Posted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 9:12 pm Post subject: |
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| A DOUBLE rainbow? |
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The Happy Warrior
Joined: 10 Feb 2010
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| Posted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 9:26 pm Post subject: |
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| LGSakers wrote: |
| A DOUBLE rainbow? |
Yeah, and a sighting of a pair of hornless unicorns. |
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Konglishman
Joined: 14 Sep 2007
Location: Nanjing
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| Posted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 9:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Assuming that Kim Un is able to take control of the country, I suppose the question to be asked is there any real possibility that his previous exposure to the West, will cause him to consider any sort of real reform. Of course, I suppose that is just wishful thinking on my part. |
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Seoulio
Joined: 02 Jan 2010
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| Posted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 10:29 pm Post subject: |
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| LGSakers wrote: |
| A DOUBLE rainbow? |
what youve never seen a doble rainbow? they do happen fairly frequently |
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Konglishman
Joined: 14 Sep 2007
Location: Nanjing
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| Posted: Sat Aug 21, 2010 10:44 pm Post subject: |
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| Seoulio wrote: |
| LGSakers wrote: |
| A DOUBLE rainbow? |
what youve never seen a doble rainbow? they do happen fairly frequently |
I actually saw a circular rainbow going around the sun once in the Philippines. |
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LGSakers
Joined: 23 Jul 2010
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| Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 1:05 am Post subject: |
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| Seoulio wrote: |
| LGSakers wrote: |
| A DOUBLE rainbow? |
what youve never seen a doble rainbow? they do happen fairly frequently |
Internet happenings over your head? :/ |
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murmanjake
Joined: 21 Oct 2008
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bacasper
Joined: 26 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:01 am Post subject: |
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| The Happy Warrior wrote: |
| LGSakers wrote: |
| A DOUBLE rainbow? |
Yeah, and a sighting of a pair of hornless unicorns. |
Wouldn't that make them, umm, acorns?
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Seoulio
Joined: 02 Jan 2010
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| Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:41 am Post subject: |
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| LGSakers wrote: |
| Seoulio wrote: |
| LGSakers wrote: |
| A DOUBLE rainbow? |
what youve never seen a doble rainbow? they do happen fairly frequently |
Internet happenings over your head? :/ |
lol, apparently |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 7:57 am Post subject: |
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| Hail this. |
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TL
Joined: 30 Mar 2008
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| Posted: Sun Aug 22, 2010 8:58 pm Post subject: |
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| $5 trillion over 30 years. Wow that's going to hurt the economy. |
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