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Yuan Poised to Become Reserve Currency
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 8:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well golly! 18 months ago the dollar was going to be replaced by the Euro according to the eperts. Perhaps the dollar doesnt look good now and the Yuan looks great. Lets see what happens. All is not ticky boo in the middle kingdom. There is a lot of fundamental strength in the U.s. economy and that is why people are still willing to loan money to it. Demographics change. Immigration can change it faster. Wars even faster. The China hype should have ended months ago. Even the Chinese are sweating bullets right now. the Shanghai papers are full of articles about the coming great crash. China faces an even great demograpic challenge than the U.S. The one child policy means there are not enough workers to produce the means to support the aging chinese population.
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The Happy Warrior



Joined: 10 Feb 2010

PostPosted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 9:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rollo wrote:
The one child policy means there are not enough workers to produce the means to support the aging chinese population.


I agree with what you say. But its still funny. The Chinese with their one child policy (and its numerous exceptions) have a better birth rate than Korea, Japan, most European countries (save France). The Chinese have a poor family planning policy but a will to live, and apparently the latter is worth more.
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Steelrails



Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System

PostPosted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 9:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

People need to think outside the box- MMORPG currencies should be the world's reserve.
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Steelrails



Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System

PostPosted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 9:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rollo wrote:
Well golly! 18 months ago the dollar was going to be replaced by the Euro according to the eperts. Perhaps the dollar doesnt look good now and the Yuan looks great. Lets see what happens. All is not ticky boo in the middle kingdom. There is a lot of fundamental strength in the U.s. economy and that is why people are still willing to loan money to it. Demographics change. Immigration can change it faster. Wars even faster. The China hype should have ended months ago. Even the Chinese are sweating bullets right now. the Shanghai papers are full of articles about the coming great crash. China faces an even great demograpic challenge than the U.S. The one child policy means there are not enough workers to produce the means to support the aging chinese population.


Just a guess, but somehow I think the people of Europe, China, Japan, and Korea will find a way to support their aging populations given that those places are more apt to have closer-knit families. I would not feel confident about the U.S. or Canada in that situation.
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nathanrutledge



Joined: 01 May 2008
Location: Marakesh

PostPosted: Mon Sep 06, 2010 9:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

China manipulates its currency. Europe has more than a dozen central banks. The US economy is by and away the strongest economy out there. Per capita it is the richest nation in the world (with the exception of some of the city-states, and oil emirates). Gross economy, it is still about 10 trillion dollars ahead of China. Depending on the data you look at it is just ahead, just behind, or equal to the European Union/Eurozone, but they suffer from multiple central banks. Sure, the US Fed has pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into the economy, but the Chinese did the same thing with their currency, the Europeans failed to do it and countries began to collapse.

How can anyone honestly think that the dollar will lose it's status? The US is the worlds number 1 consumer of oil in the world. The US is the worlds number 1 consumer in general. As evidenced by the global economic problems, I think it's safe to say you don't have to be very smart to work at GS...
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 6:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting about the kids taking care of their parents, in china this is becoming something from the past t.v. trips wto resorts, the elderly are now see as an expensive burden. Not uncommon to see elderly digging through trash for food or begging on the street. Something that many would have thought impossible is becoming common. The Chinese family which seemed indestructable as the nucleus of Chinese culture is breaking down.

the U.S. is in rough shape but so are many parts of the world. wait and see.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 6:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Well, which is it? diminished or doomed? Hardly the same thing


If the SDR is successful it will be diminished. If it isn't, it is doomed.

Quote:
the outlook for Canada would be like if the US loses its reserve currency status because of inflating their currency to pay off liabilities?


I have no idea.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A fun discussion:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mike-pento-kicked-cnbc-telling-truth-dumb-money-manager-says-nothing-bubble-when-people-want

Foreigners will always buy an unlimited amount of American debt with essentially no return. Everything will stay exactly as it is today forever and ever amen.

And:

Quote:
"nothing is in a bubble when people want to buy it."


The guy who said that actually manages money.

The USD.... Maybe the RMB won't replace it. Maybe gold will. Maybe something else. But the USD-based global system is fundamentally unsound and irrational.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 4:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree that the current system is irrational. It is evolving and trying to predict what the result will be is fruitless I think. Gold seems to becoming the default currency at this time but that could change overnight.

It is interesting to note that the discussion of the RmB as a reserve currency would have been laughable 10 years ago. Also interesting is that economic discussions now focus on Beijing, Washington and Tokyo and little is said about Europe
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joeleitz



Joined: 23 Feb 2010

PostPosted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 2:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Happy Warrior wrote:
Hype, hype, hype, hype the China market.


It's a continual hype of the Chinese market, you're right. I bet they've managed to blow an even bigger financial bubble than the US has. How much do you want to bet that it bursts soon? At least China doesn't seem to be piling on the taxation bureaucracy like we have in the US. I mean what about mandate 1099 where all transactions over $600 are to be tracked for the IRS? Is everybody going to require a background check just to shop at the mall soon? Ridiculous.
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