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Mikejelai
Joined: 01 Nov 2009
Location: Seoul
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 Posted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 9:19 pm Post subject: Anybody changing won to dollars cause of war potential? |
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| Just thinking that the won would probably lose a lot of its value if this military incident were to escalate. What is the word on the street regarding this? |
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Ramen
Joined: 15 Apr 2008
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| Posted: Wed Nov 24, 2010 9:20 pm Post subject: Re: Anybody changing won to dollars cause of war potential? |
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| Mikejelai wrote: |
| Just thinking that the won would probably lose a lot of its value if this military incident were to escalate. What is the word on the street regarding this? |
All Korean are telling me that my money is safe in Korea.  |
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highstreet
Joined: 13 Nov 2010
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| Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 12:09 am Post subject: |
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| I wouldn't be too worried, NK does this all the time. |
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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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| Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 12:37 am Post subject: |
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Yes I am currently in the process of changing all my Korean MMORPG Platinum in for World for Warcraft Gold.
Why people get so worked over two currencies that seem to be drifting towards Monopoly Money status is beyond me. |
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The Cosmic Hum
Joined: 09 May 2003
Location: Sonic Space
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| Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 2:34 am Post subject: |
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Steelrails wrote:
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| Why people get so worked over two currencies that seem to be drifting towards Monopoly Money status is beyond me. |
...that is pretty funny.  |
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Vagabundo
Joined: 26 Aug 2010
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| Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 2:49 am Post subject: |
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| Steelrails wrote: |
Yes I am currently in the process of changing all my Korean MMORPG Platinum in for World for Warcraft Gold.
Why people get so worked over two currencies that seem to be drifting towards Monopoly Money status is beyond me. |
I'd rather have my assets in Dollar Monopoly money than toilet paper won monopoly money any time.
or baht, rupiah, taiwan dollar, singapore dollar, especially chinese yuan.
anything but the crap won. |
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DorkothyParker
Joined: 11 Apr 2009
Location: Jeju
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| Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 4:10 am Post subject: |
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Well we were getting close to a 1000 won/dollar ratio. It's definitely a bummer that won seems to be dropping again in value.  I care because I have to send money back every month. Unfortunately, I can't afford to send more in advance as I don't keep any saving in my won (too easy to spend). I plan to keep transferring same as normal and just hoping it doesn't get worse. (Alternatively, the US dollar could also drop. That would be okay.) |
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Vagabundo
Joined: 26 Aug 2010
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| Posted: Thu Nov 25, 2010 7:17 am Post subject: |
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| DorkothyParker wrote: |
| Well we were getting close to a 1000 won/dollar ratio. It's definitely a bummer that won seems to be dropping again in value. I care because I have to send money back every month. Unfortunately, I can't afford to send more in advance as I don't keep any saving in my won (too easy to spend). I plan to keep transferring same as normal and just hoping it doesn't get worse. (Alternatively, the US dollar could also drop. That would be okay.) |
no.. not even close.
it's failed twice in spectacular fashion to rise above 1105.
the govt steps in to slow it ascent every time it dips below 1150. |
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NM14456
Joined: 21 Aug 2010
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| Posted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 5:40 am Post subject: |
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| Vagabundo wrote: |
| DorkothyParker wrote: |
| Well we were getting close to a 1000 won/dollar ratio. It's definitely a bummer that won seems to be dropping again in value. I care because I have to send money back every month. Unfortunately, I can't afford to send more in advance as I don't keep any saving in my won (too easy to spend). I plan to keep transferring same as normal and just hoping it doesn't get worse. (Alternatively, the US dollar could also drop. That would be okay.) |
no.. not even close.
it's failed twice in spectacular fashion to rise above 1105.
the govt steps in to slow it ascent every time it dips below 1150. |
Yeah, I've had the same impression. I got lucky, well not lucky exactly as I've been watching very closely for 6 months now. I transferred 10K about 3 weeks ago when it was 1108 or something. Glad I did. I feel bad for people who are needing to send $ back now.
I've watched the "threat" of higher interest rates because of excessive borrowing here. Almost always higher interest rates precedes an increase in currency value. "Magically" it never falls for long. I was also specifically watching it prior to the G-20 as the currency rate thing has been such an issue internationally. It slowly dropped as we edged toward the meeting dates but as soon as it was obvious there weren't other agreements the won seemed to start rising again. My understanding is they start buying dollars on the market to increase demand (value). A bad deal, I might add for Korean consumers who may want to buy foreign goods.....although that's the point of the artificially high won. |
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Epik_Teacher
Joined: 28 Apr 2010
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| Posted: Sun Nov 28, 2010 2:17 pm Post subject: |
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They pulled the same crap in 1994, right before Kim, Jung-il took over. My guess is that his son, "The Brilliant Comrade" is getting the spotlight and they will settle for lots more aid of different kinds. NK are very practised in hystrionics and pulling back from the brink at the last minute. Korean/Asian stock market will soar, then back to business as usual.
And of course, South Koreans $hitting all over the USA like they always do! |
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nathanrutledge
Joined: 01 May 2008
Location: Marakesh
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| Posted: Sun Nov 28, 2010 4:08 pm Post subject: |
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Vegabundo and I have differences of opinion on the exchange rate, and I'm sure he's going to throw some flak my way for this...
I wouldn't change for the following reasons:
1. As others have said, the NorK's do this all the time.
2. The US is attempting "quantitative easing" or "whoring the dollar" if you will, i.e. printing out an additional 6 billion dollars which will drop the value of the dollar compared to other currencies.
3. The Bank of Korea is planning to raise the interest rate, thus shrinking the supply of won in circulation, thus pushing the value of the won up against other currencies.
Now VB, if you disagree with this assessment, articles and references please! |
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Los Angeloser
Joined: 26 Aug 2010
Location: Korea
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| Posted: Sun Nov 28, 2010 11:50 pm Post subject: |
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| nathanrutledge wrote: |
Vegabundo and I have differences of opinion on the exchange rate, and I'm sure he's going to throw some flak my way for this...
I wouldn't change for the following reasons:
1. As others have said, the NorK's do this all the time.
2. The US is attempting "quantitative easing" or "whoring the dollar" if you will, i.e. printing out an additional 6 billion dollars which will drop the value of the dollar compared to other currencies.
3. The Bank of Korea is planning to raise the interest rate, thus shrinking the supply of won in circulation, thus pushing the value of the won up against other currencies.
Now VB, if you disagree with this assessment, articles and references please! |
Wasn't that 2nd batch of 6 billion already released? And, Korea just increased the interest rate from 2.25 to 2.50 about 10 days ago but strangely your prediction that that would cause the Won to get stronger is or was wrong. |
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Vagabundo
Joined: 26 Aug 2010
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| Posted: Mon Nov 29, 2010 12:52 am Post subject: |
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| Los Angeloser wrote: |
| nathanrutledge wrote: |
Vegabundo and I have differences of opinion on the exchange rate, and I'm sure he's going to throw some flak my way for this...
I wouldn't change for the following reasons:
1. As others have said, the NorK's do this all the time.
2. The US is attempting "quantitative easing" or "whoring the dollar" if you will, i.e. printing out an additional 6 billion dollars which will drop the value of the dollar compared to other currencies.
3. The Bank of Korea is planning to raise the interest rate, thus shrinking the supply of won in circulation, thus pushing the value of the won up against other currencies.
Now VB, if you disagree with this assessment, articles and references please! |
Wasn't that 2nd batch of 6 billion already released? And, Korea just increased the interest rate from 2.25 to 2.50 about 10 days ago but strangely your prediction that that would cause the Won to get stronger is or was wrong. |
there's my answer nathanrutledge.
you've had two massive episodes of what you call "whoring the dollar".
the first time, the dollar massively strengthened, against everyone and everything, but most of all against the won.
then as all other currencies strengthened and returned to the "mean" (or beyond/stronger).. the won stayed..
as
"the won".
The won - the crap of Asia.
you're merely hoping the won goes up. I entertain no such illusions. I WOULD like to be long Asian currencies vs the USD in general, but unfortunately I am long "the won"
the crap of Asia.
p.s. and in the 2nd, very recent "whoring" episode, the dollar also hasn't tumbled, in fact it's strengthened overall, and once again, especially so against the Korean won.
the crap of Asia.
Last edited by Vagabundo on Mon Nov 29, 2010 2:32 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Vagabundo
Joined: 26 Aug 2010
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| Posted: Mon Nov 29, 2010 12:54 am Post subject: |
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btw, my post above doesn't mean the won will necessarily weaken now and you should change money now,.
it also doesn't mean that the won won't strengthen against the USD.
It will simply strengthen less than everything else.
it simply means that it remains the crap of Asia, actually it's pretty global now, with the Zimbabwe dollar gone all they really have now to compete against in crappiness is the Iceland kroner. |
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NM14456
Joined: 21 Aug 2010
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| Posted: Mon Nov 29, 2010 4:52 am Post subject: |
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| Los Angeloser wrote: |
| nathanrutledge wrote: |
Vegabundo and I have differences of opinion on the exchange rate, and I'm sure he's going to throw some flak my way for this...
I wouldn't change for the following reasons:
1. As others have said, the NorK's do this all the time.
2. The US is attempting "quantitative easing" or "whoring the dollar" if you will, i.e. printing out an additional 6 billion dollars which will drop the value of the dollar compared to other currencies.
3. The Bank of Korea is planning to raise the interest rate, thus shrinking the supply of won in circulation, thus pushing the value of the won up against other currencies.
Now VB, if you disagree with this assessment, articles and references please! |
Wasn't that 2nd batch of 6 billion already released? And, Korea just increased the interest rate from 2.25 to 2.50 about 10 days ago but strangely your prediction that that would cause the Won to get stronger is or was wrong. |
I think both of your central points are correct actually. Generally, interest rate increases lead to currency rises. Generally.
The 6 billion has either been released or is being released. I imagine there's a process somewhat more complicated than wheeling in barrels full of 20's 
Following and or predicting the financial market and currencies is immensely complicated and unpredictable for anyone. Right now the conflict on the Peninsula would no doubt have a negative effect as well as the continuing shaky news about Ireland needing a bailout etc.. Even with the infusion of US dollars by the Fed, if the global market is nervous about either the Euro or the Won etc.. The often retreat to the dollar, continuing to prop it up.
I think a parallel to this is the Yen. Everyone knows the Japanese economy is in the toilet but overall it's a stable looking place to park your currency so the Yen has stayed high out of context with the economy. Commodities, metals, oil etc are through roof due to fear of currency problems.
With a little luck the military issue will settle down and maybe Ireland will look slightly better so people will start moving away from the dollar again. I'd expect the Won to be pretty unstable in the next month or so.
I think you can kiss the currency glory days of the past goodbye though. Just a hunch really.
Having said that it's listed in articles semi-regularly that the Korean government is buying up dollars when it can to keep the Won low..........
Good times...... |
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