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North Korea Fires Rockets at SK island
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mc_jc



Joined: 13 Aug 2009
Location: C4B- Cp Red Cloud, Area-I

PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 4:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Your logic is that SK wouldn't attack NK because foreign investment would pull out. But China and Russia would jump in against... Japan? Even though the West isn't in a great position for a large conflict, it seems very unlikely that China and Russia would gamble on the weakness of the U.S. Russia has shown it's willing to exert power over its neighbors, but China enjoys a LOT of complacency with regard to its power in the West that would be flushed in this situation.


Russia is laying claim to the northern islands of Japan, including Hokkaido. If a conflict were to occur in NE Asia, the Russian Far Eastern Military District (Дво-1) has drawn up plans to reinforce the islands already under Russian control and to prepare for the possible taking of the islets around Hokkaido and including Hokkaido itself.

Right now, Defense Secretary Gates and Defense Minister Serdyukov are negotiating the ratification of the START Treaty. This might seem unrelated to what's going on- but the Russians see it as a confidence building measure to decrease tensions in Europe and the US sees it as a way to get the Russians to join them on their side of the negotiating table.
But all that is dependent on if congress would go along with that point of view.
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rusty1983



Joined: 30 Jan 2007

PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For all the reasons discussed at length around here I would be highly surprised if war kicked off again. However, if the British media are to be believed then tensions are higher than is usual for these flare-ups and it seems like something will have to give sooner rather than later. What do you think this could be?
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Harpeau



Joined: 01 Feb 2003
Location: Coquitlam, BC

PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 5:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

laconic2 wrote:
History teaches us this would not be the first time the U.S. would find itself "ill-prepared for any major conflict." Two examples that come to mind very quickly are December 7, 1941 and June 25, 1950, when North Korean ground forces crossed the 38th Parallel into South Korea and started the most recent Korean War.

Bureaucrats and military planners of attacked nations are rarely the ones who determine when they will be attacked or when they will find themselves in a war. The recent shelling of the village precipitating this most recent crisis comes to mind.

Events have been known to run much faster and far ahead of planners on either side of the table are capable of controlling even if they wanted to.


History teaches quite the opposite, in fact: The USA put Japan in an economic headlock and were actually aware of the impending attack on Pearl Harbor, but refused to do much about it. The goal was that such a huge "9/11" kind of tragedy would get most Americans behind the war effort.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 6:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

China is in a bind on this one. they really do not want the U.s. and Japan to ramp up forces in the region, and that is what is happening.

They do not want any attacks on the North but the actions of the North are causeing them a lot of problems.

Two key things, four months ago when the U.s. talked about sending a carrier into the area , China screamed. Well we have sent a carrier into the region and China has not said a word. A Chinese professor said" they may be saying that the North is on its on. This is a dangerous time because the North is rudderless with Kim dying and no real stable power in the North. I think the Chinese want the North Korea problem to go away and a new regional agreement be constructed. I think they would tolerate a limited retaliation.

No Harpeau the U.s. did not put Japan in an economic headlock, we were in a depression so deep we could barely support ourselves. We did state that we would embargo Indonesian oil but we had no means to do that and the British continued to sell them Indonesian oil. A little reading of the historical record would help. Also the attack was expected, but in the Phillipines. The Japanese general staff began planning an attack on pearl Harbor in 1933, before Roosevelt announced that the U.s. wanted to embargo Indonesian oil. Conspiracy theory is a shameful perversion of history.
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laconic2



Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Wonderful World of ESL

PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 7:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Harpeau wrote:

History teaches quite the opposite, in fact: The USA put Japan in an economic headlock and were actually aware of the impending attack on Pearl Harbor, but refused to do much about it. The goal was that such a huge "9/11" kind of tragedy would get most Americans behind the war effort.


Even if what you wrote were true (which it isn't), it still does not discount the fact that the U.S. was "ill-prepared for war" at that time and surely after U.S. military and naval forces were slaughtered and their bases destroyed or badly damaged in the 7 December 1941 surprise attack.
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mc_jc



Joined: 13 Aug 2009
Location: C4B- Cp Red Cloud, Area-I

PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 8:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In many respects, Harpeau was right.
The oil and resource embargo placed on Japan by the US and western colonial interests did put Japan in a very tough position because negotiations to lift the embargo broke down and the only "rational" conclusion the Japanese felt they had were to go to war.

However, China provides North Korea with tons of its energy needs from pipelines across their borders. The only time those resources were taken away from them was when the North Koreans refused to go to the second round of denuclearization talks back toward the middle of the 00's.

Songun (military first) policy is somewhat heavily dependent on food aid from Korea and the US (yes! we are in fact feeding the very army that will be fighting against us). When this aid dried up gradually, North Korea began resorting to 'blackmail' to get that aid back- the demand for aid in return for an end to provocative measures. The previous progressive Korean governments, as well as the US, yielded to that demand in return for the relative calm.
The Korean public's perception that North Korea was a "nation of wayward brethren" was at its highest during the Noh Mu Hyun government, who openly talked with the North. People began to flout the national security law, as well as the KNP not strictly enforcing it. The previous government gave the Korean public the perception that peaceful unification would happen within the next generation.
However, that sentiment was only felt in the south. As the south was in a state of 'unification euphoria', the north was still arming itself and kept itself on war-footing.
New KPLA units were mobilized and stationed along the demarcation line. However, after the destruction of a KPLA-NF ship in 2008 (in addition to the reported stroke suffered by Kim Jung Il), naval assets, artillery and rocket units were quietly moved from the eastern corridor (north of Kangwon-Do) to the West Sea [Yellow Sea].
As was the case in the 80's, when Kim Jung Il showed his might against the world to solidify his grip on power, Kim Jung Eun is doing the exact same thing. He had ordered the attack on the Cheonan and the attack on Yeongpyeong Island to gain 'brownie points' before becoming paramount leader after the death of his father.


This reminds me a lot of the rivalry between Athenian Greece and Sparta during pre-Macedonian period.
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laconic2



Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Wonderful World of ESL

PostPosted: Sat Nov 27, 2010 11:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mc_jc wrote:
In many respects, Harpeau was right.
The oil and resource embargo placed on Japan by the US and western colonial interests did put Japan in a very tough position because negotiations to lift the embargo broke down and the only "rational" conclusion the Japanese felt they had were to go to war.

However, China provides North Korea with tons of its energy needs from pipelines across their borders. The only time those resources were taken away from them was when the North Koreans refused to go to the second round of denuclearization talks back toward the middle of the 00's.

Songun (military first) policy is somewhat heavily dependent on food aid from Korea and the US (yes! we are in fact feeding the very army that will be fighting against us). When this aid dried up gradually, North Korea began resorting to 'blackmail' to get that aid back- the demand for aid in return for an end to provocative measures. The previous progressive Korean governments, as well as the US, yielded to that demand in return for the relative calm.
The Korean public's perception that North Korea was a "nation of wayward brethren" was at its highest during the Noh Mu Hyun government, who openly talked with the North. People began to flout the national security law, as well as the KNP not strictly enforcing it. The previous government gave the Korean public the perception that peaceful unification would happen within the next generation.
However, that sentiment was only felt in the south. As the south was in a state of 'unification euphoria', the north was still arming itself and kept itself on war-footing.
New KPLA units were mobilized and stationed along the demarcation line. However, after the destruction of a KPLA-NF ship in 2008 (in addition to the reported stroke suffered by Kim Jung Il), naval assets, artillery and rocket units were quietly moved from the eastern corridor (north of Kangwon-Do) to the West Sea [Yellow Sea].
As was the case in the 80's, when Kim Jung Il showed his might against the world to solidify his grip on power, Kim Jung Eun is doing the exact same thing. He had ordered the attack on the Cheonan and the attack on Yeongpyeong Island to gain 'brownie points' before becoming paramount leader after the death of his father.


This reminds me a lot of the rivalry between Athenian Greece and Sparta during pre-Macedonian period.


All of which has zilch to do with the fact that he U.S. was not prepared to go to war in 1941 or 1950. Both times they ended up in wars, though. Prepared or not. Events overtook many nations at that time just as events can overtake nations now.

Whether it is now or 1941, 1950 or 430 B.C., nations rarely have the liberty of controlling when or where they are attacked and war ensues.

The big differences now are that events happen a whole lot quicker and can be far more deadly and disastrous when compared to earlier times.
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On the other hand



Joined: 19 Apr 2003
Location: I walk along the avenue

PostPosted: Sun Nov 28, 2010 1:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcjc wrote:

Quote:
Russia is laying claim to the northern islands of Japan, including Hokkaido.


Do you have a source for your statement that Russia is laying claim to the second largest island in the Japanese archipelogo, with a population of over five million people?
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mc_jc



Joined: 13 Aug 2009
Location: C4B- Cp Red Cloud, Area-I

PostPosted: Sun Nov 28, 2010 1:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Do you have a source for your statement that Russia is laying claim to the second largest island in the Japanese archipelogo, with a population of over five million people?



Russia's annual defense review (Doc. No. VMR347440327-367PHT), that is available to senior officials in NATO countries due to a transparency agreement to declare each other's posturing.
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vesce



Joined: 09 Nov 2010

PostPosted: Sun Nov 28, 2010 1:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mc_jc wrote:
Quote:
Do you have a source for your statement that Russia is laying claim to the second largest island in the Japanese archipelogo, with a population of over five million people?



Russia's annual defense review (Doc. No. VMR347440327-367PHT), that is available to senior officials in NATO countries due to a transparency agreement to declare each other's posturing.


i found this while surfing around:

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6A015Q20101101
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jvalmer



Joined: 06 Jun 2003

PostPosted: Sun Nov 28, 2010 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mc_jc wrote:
Quote:
Do you have a source for your statement that Russia is laying claim to the second largest island in the Japanese archipelogo, with a population of over five million people?

Russia's annual defense review (Doc. No. VMR347440327-367PHT), that is available to senior officials in NATO countries due to a transparency agreement to declare each other's posturing.

I'd like to see a source too. I know they want a few small islands near Hokkaido, but the big island of Hakkaido doesn't seem realistic.
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mc_jc



Joined: 13 Aug 2009
Location: C4B- Cp Red Cloud, Area-I

PostPosted: Sun Nov 28, 2010 3:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There are a few people I do trust here because they are indeed friends, but as to put stuff out there just because you want to see it is not going to happen.

Why don't you go through Wikileaks and request them to get that kind of information next time they publish documents...oh! I forgot! Wikileaks won't publish anything related to China or Russia for fear that these countries would shut them down and kill their couriers and founder.

The source document is given, if you're from a news agency or something related to the media, you could file a FOIA form and obtain the document directly from the government.
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Space Bar



Joined: 20 Oct 2010

PostPosted: Sun Nov 28, 2010 10:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is the US really getting close to starting a war over this? If protests are being organized in the streets, it may be closer than we think.

Call to Action: Online Demonstration for Peace in Korea
Sunday 11/28 and Wednesday 12/1

President Obama is sending the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington (carrying 75 warplanes and a crew of over 6000) and other warships for additional war-games with the South Korean military beginning this Sunday, November 28.This only escalates the already tense situation on the Korean peninsula and brings us dangerously closer to an all-out war. And the blogosphere is already full of hate-mongering rhetoric calling for �retaliation� after the tragic incident on Yeonpyong Island earlier this week. Two civilians and two South Korean soldiers have died. We say NO MORE LOST LIVES.

We need all those who stand for peace to call for de-escalation on the Korean peninsula and an immediate end to the U.S.-South Korean war games. On Sunday, November 28, from 12 noon to 3 pm EST (9 am to 12 noon PST) and Wednesday, December 1 from 7 pm to 10 pm EST (4pm to 7 pm PST) tell Obama and Clinton to immediately stop the joint U.S.-South Korean war maneuvers, and sign a Peace Agreement to end the state of war that has existed for sixty years on the Korean peninsula.

www.whitehouse.gov/contact
contact-us.state.gov

URGENT: Articles on the Yeonpyeong Incident and Background

Also,

RALLY ON TUESDAY

Tuesday, Nov. 30th. 5:30 pm. Action at the tree lighting at Rockefeller Center.


Come to 50th St. & 5th Avenue.

(If unable due to holiday crowds to get to that corner, come to 53rd & 5th Avenue. Call 646-353-2708 for more information.)

By Nov 30 U.S. nuclear powered aircraft carrier, destroyers, missile launchers, submarines and jet aircraft will have moved to the other side of the planet to threaten a new war against the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea.

On November 30th millions of unemployed workers will be totally cut off unemployment benefit extensions.

Congress is too busy continuing billionaire tax breaks, Federal Reserve bank bailouts, and the trillion dollar war budget.


GE, a major war profiteer and owner of the GE Building, along with NBC and MSNBC all located at Rockefeller Center.

Join us at the Rockefeller Tree Lighting as we demand Unemployment Benefits & Jobs, Not a Trillion $ budget for War profiteers.

The Tuesday Tree Lighting action is cosponsored by the International Action Center and Flashmobsfor jobs, an organization of the unemployed.

Monday starting at 2 pm and going through the evening there will be a work session at 55 W. 17th, Manhattan, 5th floor. Any train to 14th St.

We are making creative displays and flyers for the Tuesday action. Your help is needed.

- - - - - - - - - - - -

TWO ON-LINE CAMPAIGNS:

STOP the U.S./S. Korean War Provocations KNOW THE UNDISPUTED FACTS!

SIGN THE ONLINE PETITION to the Obama Administration and s. Korean Govt.

at
http://www.iacenter.org/korea/stopattackondprk NOW!
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tiger fancini



Joined: 21 Mar 2006
Location: Testicles for Eyes

PostPosted: Sun Nov 28, 2010 10:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Space Bar wrote:

TWO ON-LINE CAMPAIGNS:

STOP the U.S./S. Korean War Provocations KNOW THE UNDISPUTED FACTS!

SIGN THE ONLINE PETITION to the Obama Administration and s. Korean Govt.

at
http://www.iacenter.org/korea/stopattackondprk NOW!


How about a campaign to stop North Korean aggression? Or a campain for China to take a little more responsibility? And your "undisputed facts" just contain assumptions and what is basically guess work by members of the "blogosphere."

It's all very well, rallying away in the streets of America where there is not really a direct threat of a North Korean attack. I would imagine that most South Koreans (except communist sympathisers) would find your intent distasteful though.
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Space Bar



Joined: 20 Oct 2010

PostPosted: Sun Nov 28, 2010 11:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

tiger fancini wrote:
Space Bar wrote:

TWO ON-LINE CAMPAIGNS:

STOP the U.S./S. Korean War Provocations KNOW THE UNDISPUTED FACTS!

SIGN THE ONLINE PETITION to the Obama Administration and s. Korean Govt.

at
http://www.iacenter.org/korea/stopattackondprk NOW!


How about a campaign to stop North Korean aggression? Or a campain for China to take a little more responsibility? And your "undisputed facts" just contain assumptions and what is basically guess work by members of the "blogosphere."

It's all very well, rallying away in the streets of America where there is not really a direct threat of a North Korean attack. I would imagine that most South Koreans (except communist sympathisers) would find your intent distasteful though.

So just how much support do you think there is in the South for an attack on the North? Surely you don't think the South will be completely unaffected by such an scenario, do you?
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