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PastorYoon

Joined: 25 Jun 2010 Location: Sea of Japan
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Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 1:13 am Post subject: |
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| Steelrails wrote: |
| PastorYoon wrote: |
Well then by that rationality I see Morneau's line as following:
.365 AVG, 46 HR, 132 RBI, .487 OBP, 1.455 OPS
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We're talking an increase in BA from .300 to .315 in HR from 22-25, RBIs from 90-100 and OBP holding steady and games played from 144-160. |
So, you're bringing his projected BA down now? You had it between .310-.330, now you're saying .300 to .315. I had Morneau's BA just 20 points higher than his average from last year (.345). Clearly I'm being facetious with the power numbers, but I'll have to agree to disagree about your prediction concerning Choo. I admit some protection in the lineup can be a big factor here, but I think he's a bit too streaky of a hitter to show the consistency you're hoping for. He can be on absolute fire for a week, and then slump for a month. I just don't see it happening.
How about Mark Teixiera, for instance? He had more protection than was humanly possible last year, and hit about .240 or something most of the year. Protection is not going to necessarily increase your BA by 30 points. There are a lot of negatives that you could associate with this as well, such as the fact that Cleveland is not a winning team. They will undoubtedly not be contending in the AL Central this year. Losing doesn't exactly help players' morale, either. I realize there are no absolutes when you're talking about predictions, which is why I jumped on yours. Just having fun with you. Nice to see some baseball talk on here, though. |
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schwa
Joined: 18 Jan 2003 Location: Yap
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Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 1:34 am Post subject: |
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| PastorYoon wrote: |
| I think he's a bit too streaky of a hitter to show the consistency you're hoping for. He can be on absolute fire for a week, and then slump for a month. |
Thats crazy talk. If you check his game log for last year he was steady as they come, all season long. A very disciplined & durable player. Future mvp, no, but I bet he has it in him to put up some very respectable numbers for years to come.
Me too, happy to see some baseball chat here.
Last edited by schwa on Tue Dec 14, 2010 1:40 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Steelrails

Joined: 12 Mar 2009 Location: Earth, Solar System
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Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 1:39 am Post subject: |
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| You had it between .310-.330 |
I said between .310 and .330
And .315 is between that. .330 would be a big jump (Although it would mean simply 18 more hits over the course of the season, or about three per month)
I can't think of a RF I'd rather have other than perhaps Carols Gonzalez. Bautista will probably not repeat his monster performance.
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| I realize there are no absolutes when you're talking about predictions, which is why I jumped on yours. Just having fun with you. Nice to see some baseball talk on here, though. |
The big one is injury. He could slump for two months and end up at .280 15 75, though I don't see this as likely either. Regardless even with a slump, his defense will keep him playing.
Even during a slump though he should still be able to get on base on make things happen.
The AL Central looks only to have four decent lefties- Liriano, Danks, Buerhle, and maybe Duensing. The Royals may bring back Bruce Chen, who is mediocre at best, the Tigers (my team) are going to move Phil Coke from the pen into the rotation (shudder), other than that its a bunch of righties, although the ChiSox righties will be tough.
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| Just having fun with you. Nice to see some baseball talk on here, though. |
No prob, it was fun. Takes me back to sports talk radio days. Who's your team?
The Tigers are once again going to give me hope and probably let me down. So many questions- Will Scherzer regress from his phenomenal second half? (Just Slightly) Will Porcello bounce back? (Somewhat) Will Coke nail down the 4th spot? (Thinking about it makes me reach for Maalox) Who will play RF? (Magglio?) AJax sophomore slump? (Probably not too much) Peralta and a AAAA player up the middle (More Maalox) Vmart? (.275-15-80 and a bunch of disappointment)
I just ate spicy food. I can't think about the Tigers anymore. |
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PastorYoon

Joined: 25 Jun 2010 Location: Sea of Japan
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Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 5:26 am Post subject: |
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| Steelrails wrote: |
| Who's your team? |
The Twins.
| Quote: |
The Tigers are once again going to give me hope and probably let me down. So many questions- Will Scherzer regress from his phenomenal second half? (Just Slightly) Will Porcello bounce back? (Somewhat) Will Coke nail down the 4th spot? (Thinking about it makes me reach for Maalox) Who will play RF? (Magglio?) AJax sophomore slump? (Probably not too much) Peralta and a AAAA player up the middle (More Maalox) Vmart? (.275-15-80 and a bunch of disappointment)
I just ate spicy food. I can't think about the Tigers anymore. |
How can you complain about Martinez? That's a great pick-up, right there. The Tigers are always a tough team. Leyland is great. I love the AL Central. The cats went and got V-Mart while the Twins have been busy shipping their starting SS out of town. This could potentially open up a roster spot for Punto.  |
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northway
Joined: 05 Jul 2010
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Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 5:59 am Post subject: |
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| PastorYoon wrote: |
How can you complain about Martinez? That's a great pick-up, right there. The Tigers are always a tough team. Leyland is great. I love the AL Central. The cats went and got V-Mart while the Twins have been busy shipping their starting SS out of town. This could potentially open up a roster spot for Punto.  |
It won't look so great when he's OPSing .840 as a $12 million DH in a year or two. |
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PastorYoon

Joined: 25 Jun 2010 Location: Sea of Japan
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Posted: Tue Dec 14, 2010 6:08 am Post subject: |
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| northway wrote: |
| PastorYoon wrote: |
How can you complain about Martinez? That's a great pick-up, right there. The Tigers are always a tough team. Leyland is great. I love the AL Central. The cats went and got V-Mart while the Twins have been busy shipping their starting SS out of town. This could potentially open up a roster spot for Punto.  |
It won't look so great when he's OPSing .840 as a $12 million DH in a year or two. |
For a Twins' fan it will.  |
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Steelrails

Joined: 12 Mar 2009 Location: Earth, Solar System
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Posted: Wed Dec 15, 2010 10:17 pm Post subject: |
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| PastorYoon wrote: |
| Steelrails wrote: |
| Who's your team? |
The Twins.
| Quote: |
The Tigers are once again going to give me hope and probably let me down. So many questions- Will Scherzer regress from his phenomenal second half? (Just Slightly) Will Porcello bounce back? (Somewhat) Will Coke nail down the 4th spot? (Thinking about it makes me reach for Maalox) Who will play RF? (Magglio?) AJax sophomore slump? (Probably not too much) Peralta and a AAAA player up the middle (More Maalox) Vmart? (.275-15-80 and a bunch of disappointment)
I just ate spicy food. I can't think about the Tigers anymore. |
How can you complain about Martinez? That's a great pick-up, right there. The Tigers are always a tough team. Leyland is great. I love the AL Central. The cats went and got V-Mart while the Twins have been busy shipping their starting SS out of town. This could potentially open up a roster spot for Punto.  |
Now the Twins, there's a well run operation. I mean the Tigers always make big splashes, the Twins quietly develop in-house talent and it seems like whenever anyone goes down, someone just as capable rises up to take their place.
Thank goodness the Baggydome is gone, that was absolute death for the Tigers. I still remember in 2006, the year the Tigers went to the Series, how Jeremy Bonderman imploded in the 8th (or was it 9th?) inning there, it was at that point the Tigers ended up blowing the division.
V-Mart will be fine for 1-2 seasons, though his numbers at CoPa make me shuddder.
I guess the Twins have questions too- Is Valencia for real? Is Nishioka Ichiro or Kaz Matsui? Will Liriano's arm hold up? Will Mauer and Morneau stay injury free? Cuddyer- 14 HRs or 30 HRs?
Ozzie's staff frightens me. I hear the Royals are going to be scary in a year or two as well... |
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northway
Joined: 05 Jul 2010
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Posted: Thu Dec 16, 2010 1:27 am Post subject: |
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I don't think Valencia will be as good as he was this year, but I think he'll be a solid player going forward. Even with those question marks, their lineup is still stacked.
That said, their starting pitching is going to look kind of weak if they don't sign Pavano. I had such high hopes for Slowey and he's consistently disappointed. |
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PastorYoon

Joined: 25 Jun 2010 Location: Sea of Japan
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Posted: Thu Dec 16, 2010 5:42 am Post subject: |
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@steelrails - The Twins could definitely be taking a big risk with Nishioka. By the way, what's with the Japanese league? Kaz Matsui had like 36 homers one season there, and Iwamura (I think) had like 42 homers another year. Then these guys come to MLB and hit like 6. Where does the power go? Anyway, he won't be talking as much as O-Hud at 2B (maybe nothing at all - haha), so that could be an improvement right there. It seems like Liriano's arm got a lot stronger last year, so hopefully he can have a strong season again. I definitely hope Morneau can come back and stay healthy. That's my favorite player, right there. Cuddy is a crapshoot. He's had entire months where he's carried this team, but has also had complete seasons where he didn't quite find his stroke. I can't believe that Crain went and signed with the dirty sox. The Royals have had quite a few good players come out of their system, but they can never find a way to keep them. They usually trade their rising stars away - sometimes years before they hit free-agency. Is Maggs going to sign with Detroit?
I'm glad they are out of the dome now, too. Did you see what happened last weekend? http://video.minneapolis.cbslocal.com/global/video/flash/popupplayer.asp?vt1=v&clipFormat=flv&clipId1=5376117&at1=News&h1=Raw&rnd=11651590 I'm sure you did, if you are a Detroit fan. The Vikings had to play at the Ford Center. I think Target Field is a pretty fair venue, and it should seemingly make things more even. However, the Twins keep finding a way to win. One thing I do remember though, last year most players had a difficult time hitting homers to right-center. Then all of a sudden the Tigers' backup catcher came in and just crunched a LASER over the huge wall there. Pretty tough kid. I forget his name, but I think he was of Latin ethnicity.
@northway - I think Valencia was just lucky that Hardy went down with an injury. When that happened, Gardy filled the SS hole with Punto. If that wouldn't have happened, then Valencia never would have got his chance. I think if Valencia would have struggled early on, he wouldn't have been able to cope. However, he had quite a few seeing-eye hits that helped him gain confidence. He went on to have an excellent season and played very well. I think he could repeat his '10 performance. He's one of the few players that reached the upper deck in left field at Target Field, too.
There are a lot of question marks regarding players' health, but this team definitely seems to always fill holes with someone who can contribute. Slowey has disappointed me, too. Ever since a few years back ('06?) when he had 10 wins at the break (then went down with an injury), I thought that he might become our ace. It hasn't happened. The guy just can't stay healthy. There are quite a few guys that, if healthy, could make a big impact this year. Neshek, Perkins, Baker, Slowey, Morneau are some main question marks. I'm not even expecting anything from Nathan. He's going to earn $12 million, and will basically be like throwing batting practice (just had the Tommy John surgery last year). Between him, Morneau, and Mauer, that's about $50 million right there. If they can't get healthy, it's going to be a long season in Twinsville.
What do you think about re-signing Thome? IMHO, they need to sign him and Pav ASAP.
Do any of you guys get mlb.tv? I've been subscribing for 3 years now, and it's been great. It usually ticks me off in the beginning of the season (some technical difficulties), but at least I can watch any game on demand. With streaming sites, you have to watch live, which means you'd have to watch at like 9AM (impossible). |
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northway
Joined: 05 Jul 2010
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Posted: Thu Dec 16, 2010 6:57 am Post subject: |
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Aside from the health issue, Slowey is a guy that the sabermetrics don't tell the whole story on. He's got a decent strikeout rate and a low walk rate, but at the end of the day, his stuff just isn't good enough over the plate to be a top of the rotation starter. That said, I have a feeling he'd probably be a number two on most NL teams that don't play in Philadelphia.
Thome needs to come back, particularly if the never-ending nightmare of Nick Punto starting five days a week is going to continue.
I would expect Nathan to be close to fully recovered by the end of April. Billy Wagner took about 13 months to come back from Tommy John in '08. Relievers generally come back a lot faster. At worst he should be full strength by midseason. |
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