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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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 Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 8:17 am Post subject: Sudan Faces an Earthquake |
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/eric-margolis/sudan-faces-an-earthquake_b_803718.html
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A political earthquake may be about to rock Sudan and send tremors across Africa. A referendum is scheduled to occur on 9 January in which southern Sudan's eight million inhabitants may vote to separate from the 34 million citizens of northern Sudan and create their own new nation -- the US-backed state of South Sudan.
Many of modern Africa's borders are artificial: they were drawn by European colonial powers heedless of the continent's tribal, linguistic or economic geography.
Any changes in these borders are likely to unleash dangerous tensions, even demands for secession across the continent.
One of Africa's strongest taboos has been that borders inherited from the colonial era were immutable. A break-up of Sudan, Africa's largest nation, will bring into question the continent's entire geopolitical architecture.
Sudan is a doleful example of a colonial Frankenstein, an African version of that other British-created national disaster, Iraq.
Sudan extends from the Arab world and the sub-Saharan Sahel into the heart of black Africa; it was cobbled together by the British Empire to safeguard the Nile, Egypt's sole source of water, and to provide agricultural lands.
Within Sudan is a dizzying collection of almost 600 often feuding tribes speaking 400 different languages spread over a vast area: northern, Arabic-speaking Muslims and Nubians; ferocious Beja from the Red Sea Coast ("Fuzzy-Wuzzies" to the British); wild Bagarra nomads from Darfur; and Stone Age tribes from the upper Nile.
It is remarkable that Sudan has held together for so long. A low-intensity civil war has raged for 60 years between Muslim northerners and non-Muslim southerners in which two million are said to have perished. Muslims make up 75% of Sudanese; animists (traditional African faiths) account for about 20%, and southern Christians some 5%. Islamic law has been applied in the north, but rejected by most non-Muslim southerners.
Southern Sudan's Christian secessionist movement has long been guided and financed by British and US Christian missionaries who saw the region's Stone Age tribes as fertile ground for conversion. Western "humanitarian" aid groups have played a key role in fostering the south Sudan independence movement.
American Evangelical groups, including so-called "Christian Zionists." who are fiercely anti-Islamic, have been playing an important role in promoting southern Sudan's secessionist movement. American evangelicals now account for over 40% of Republican voters.
South Sudan has been rent for decades by local conflicts between its three main pastoral Nilotic tribes, the Dinka, Shilluk and Nuer, who routinely launch raids on one another for cattle and women. Their feuds are likely to carry over into a new south Sudanese state.
Sudan has also suffered another confusing conflict in the remote western regions of Darfur and Kordofan between nomadic and farming peoples. The International Criminal Court in the Hague has indicted Sudan's strongman, Gen. Omar el-Bashir, for war crimes in Darfur's murky tribal war that has become a cause celebre in the West.
Just how much Gen. Bashir's regime is responsible for alleged mass killings in Darfur's tribal melee remain uncertain. But Sudan is on the US black list as a terrorist supporter and under US sanctions. Independent-minded Sudan, branded a "rogue state" by Washington, has long been targeted for "regime change."
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Sizable deposits of oil were discovered in Sudan over the past decade. They are mostly located in south Sudan but the Khartoum government controls the export pipeline which runs north to Port Sudan on the Red Sea. China has become a major customer of Sudanese oil. Washington intends to elbow the Chinese out of Sudan if the south breaks away.
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Much could go wrong. If violence breaks out, will NATO step in? |
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stilicho25
Joined: 05 Apr 2010
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| Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 3:47 pm Post subject: |
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How did East Timor work out?
I think this is fine. Sudan is an ungainly monster, and surely local governments that reflect the cultural traditions of the people living there is a good thing. |
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chellovek
Joined: 29 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 4:45 pm Post subject: |
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| I think it will be for the best. Plus I recall the beeb saying that the President will re-fashion the North's constitution to incorporate sharia law and other Mussulman pre-occupations, which simply wouldn't fly in the South. So I think in some respects culturally and religiously the Arab north wouldn't necessarily mind, but the South is where the oil and such goodies are. |
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Junior
Joined: 18 Nov 2005
Location: the eye
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| Posted: Tue Jan 04, 2011 5:48 pm Post subject: |
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| Anything that preserves a population group from the oppressive ravages of Islam for a bit longer is a good thing. The same probably needs to happen in Nigeria. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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travel zen
Joined: 22 Feb 2005
Location: Good old Toronto, Canada
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| Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 1:14 pm Post subject: |
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Article sounds way niave.
East pakistan didn't work either. Even though muslim, they were darker than the guys with tanks and guns, so they were raped and another Sudan. |
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stilicho25
Joined: 05 Apr 2010
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| Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 4:14 pm Post subject: |
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| Travel Zen, not sure what you are saying there. Are you saying there is a good chance for collapse? I thought that was the whole point of the article. |
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travel zen
Joined: 22 Feb 2005
Location: Good old Toronto, Canada
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| Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 6:52 pm Post subject: |
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The person reporting was touching very lightly, or not at all, on some of the Fundementalist/Arabic/Islamisation spouted and perpetrated by the North. I don't think she even mentioned the word 'genocide'. I found the article pro-North, even in the face of genocidal facts. There was one point when the reporter seemed to blame America or event the southern Sudanese for all the problems. Too light.
A southern Sudan state may take off better than South Africa did last century. It may start an industrial revolution in Africa, or it may go the way of other controlled states annexed by larger economies, bullied by bigger Unions and economic alliances. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 7:58 pm Post subject: |
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The op is certainly slanted, as is the AJ video.
I don't really care what happens there as long as Western nations don't get the inspiration for some more white burden. |
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chellovek
Joined: 29 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 8:01 pm Post subject: |
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| travel zen wrote: |
A southern Sudan state may take off better than South Africa did last century. |
lol, what? You not see the number of South African refugees here in Korea teaching English? |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Jan 05, 2011 8:19 pm Post subject: |
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| Peaceful secession would make a good precedent. There would be serious consequences to brutality and apartheid. The superpower needn't invade and China's veto power would be impotent to shield the oppressors. |
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travel zen
Joined: 22 Feb 2005
Location: Good old Toronto, Canada
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| Posted: Thu Jan 06, 2011 4:01 pm Post subject: |
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| You not see the number of South African refugees here in Korea teaching English? |
S.A now, as it has been for 20 years ain't doing too well.
When the Brits discovered gold mines, when the country was being developed hand over greedy glove, it was an industrial giant in Africa, even though extremely white supremist.
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| I don't really care what happens there as long as Western nations don't get the inspiration for some more white burden. |
White mans burden! Loaded and Funny. Many, many believe and blame Western nations (Europe) for 150% of the trouble in Africa. From boundaries, to religion, to aids. There are documentaries dissecting the unfair business style of Europe when dealing with Africa (Post colonialism) and how debt is multiplied upon debt. There is now talk of the Rwandan genocide being perpetrated by the French and British governments egging on the tribes into slaughter... |
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Adventurer
Joined: 28 Jan 2006
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| Posted: Thu Jan 06, 2011 11:18 pm Post subject: |
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| Well, I can understand why many in the South want to separate. They have been oppressed by the North, and the North's regime has promoted cultural totalitarianism and religious fascism. I do not, however, sympathy with their Evangelical supporters, so called Christian Zionists because they are anti-democratic in thinking and not just the North. My sympathies are with the people of the South of Sudan and also want more freedom for the people of the Sudan in general. |
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stilicho25
Joined: 05 Apr 2010
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| Posted: Thu Jan 06, 2011 11:44 pm Post subject: |
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| The only people who backed the Dinke when they were getting the snot kicked out of them were the evangelicals. Archangel funded the resistance by the animists and the christians to repel the northerners. The only reason the north is at the bargaining table is because of them. While I don't usually support their aims, as I don't like interfering in other cultures, it is interesting to see the difference in darfur and in the south. If you don't mind me stereotyping, the bleeding heart liberal response to the western sudanese getting beat down was to whine. On the other hand, Rolf Stiener, and then Archangel stepped in with large amounts of money and arms and helped the southerners fight the northerners to a standstill. So if you are on the side of the people in this case, you are on the side of the evangelists. |
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Adventurer
Joined: 28 Jan 2006
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| Posted: Fri Jan 07, 2011 9:32 am Post subject: |
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| stilicho25 wrote: |
| The only people who backed the Dinke when they were getting the snot kicked out of them were the evangelicals. Archangel funded the resistance by the animists and the christians to repel the northerners. The only reason the north is at the bargaining table is because of them. While I don't usually support their aims, as I don't like interfering in other cultures, it is interesting to see the difference in darfur and in the south. If you don't mind me stereotyping, the bleeding heart liberal response to the western sudanese getting beat down was to whine. On the other hand, Rolf Stiener, and then Archangel stepped in with large amounts of money and arms and helped the southerners fight the northerners to a standstill. So if you are on the side of the people in this case, you are on the side of the evangelists. |
I can definitely understand how those in the South would want the money and arms to deal with the North which was using Islam and Arabic culture as they interpret it to suppress the southerners. I hope for the best for those in the South and for peace in the region. |
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