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hondaicivic
Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Location: Daegu, South Korea
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jvalmer
Joined: 06 Jun 2003
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 Posted: Thu Jan 27, 2011 8:08 pm Post subject: |
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| I'll start worrying if one of the top 10 OECD country's government falls in a mass of protest and revolution, say Japan, Germany, Canada, US or the UK. |
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Skyblue
Joined: 02 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Thu Jan 27, 2011 9:38 pm Post subject: |
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Japan's credit rating just got downgraded, and the WorldBank fears reform is unattainable.
It almost goes without saying that serious reform will only come after major upheaval in the US.
Europe's swimming in debt.
The developed world's population is aging, and so people will be putting less money into the economy and taking more out in entitlements.
A trade war is looming with China.
Climate change. Iran and North Korea. Sky-high oil prices. Terrorism.
THE END IS NIGH.
Investors have been getting shafted for the past decade, and the next one doesn't look good either.
I want the heads of some bankers on a plate. I want to eat their eyes. |
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Space Bar
Joined: 20 Oct 2010
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| Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2011 8:07 am Post subject: |
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We can only hope it is true.
| Skyblue wrote: |
Japan's credit rating just got downgraded, and the WorldBank fears reform is unattainable.
It almost goes without saying that serious reform will only come after major upheaval in the US.
Europe's swimming in debt.
The developed world's population is aging, and so people will be putting less money into the economy and taking more out in entitlements.
A trade war is looming with China.
Climate change. Iran and North Korea. Sky-high oil prices. Terrorism.
THE END IS NIGH.
Investors have been getting shafted for the past decade, and the next one doesn't look good either.
I want the heads of some bankers on a plate. I want to eat their eyes. |
I like this. Dave should have a way of giving thumbs-up to posts. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2011 9:01 am Post subject: |
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| jvalmer wrote: |
| I'll start worrying if one of the top 10 OECD country's government falls in a mass of protest and revolution, say Japan, Germany, Canada, US or the UK. |
Yes. Or if any other stable democracy, for that matter, starts to crumble. But decrepit authoritarian regimes seeing massive protests and riots? Nothing new there.  |
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comm
Joined: 22 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2011 9:03 am Post subject: |
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| Skyblue wrote: |
THE END IS NIGH. |
Really? That seems pretty short sighted. I'm sure things looked much more grim during, for example:
WW1
The Great Depression
WW2
The Cold War (the Cuban Missile Crisis in particular)
1970s recession (with 13% inflation in the US)
In fact, if this is the worst of the 2000-2020 period, we'll have fared MUCH better than in the 20th century. Personally, I didn't experience anything on this list, but it seems to me that most people have been spoiled by the relative calm of the 80's and 90's. Everything in the posts above should be considered serious problems to resolve, but it's silly and self-indulgent to think that the problems of our generation are the worst anyone has ever faced. |
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Space Bar
Joined: 20 Oct 2010
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| Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2011 9:12 am Post subject: |
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| comm wrote: |
| Skyblue wrote: |
THE END IS NIGH. |
Really? That seems pretty short sighted. I'm sure things looked much more grim during, for example:
WW1
The Great Depression
WW2
The Cold War (the Cuban Missile Crisis in particular)
1970s recession (with 13% inflation in the US)
In fact, if this is the worst of the 2000-2020 period, we'll have fared MUCH better than in the 20th century. Personally, I didn't experience anything on this list, but it seems to me that most people have been spoiled by the relative calm of the 80's and 90's. Everything in the posts above should be considered serious problems to resolve, but it's silly and self-indulgent to think that the problems of our generation are the worst anyone has ever faced. |
You need to look at that post in its entirety. It is practically poetry. He was being figurative.
Or did you think he really wanted to eat their eyes, too? |
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comm
Joined: 22 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Fri Jan 28, 2011 9:21 am Post subject: |
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| Space Bar wrote: |
You need to look at that post in its entirety. It is practically poetry. He was being figurative.
Or did you think he really wanted to eat their eyes, too? |
It was clearly figurative, but also overstated. Change is coming (as always), but the sky is staying right where it is (for now). |
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Space Bar
Joined: 20 Oct 2010
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| Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2011 8:23 am Post subject: |
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| comm wrote: |
| Space Bar wrote: |
You need to look at that post in its entirety. It is practically poetry. He was being figurative.
Or did you think he really wanted to eat their eyes, too? |
It was clearly figurative, but also overstated. Change is coming (as always), but the sky is staying right where it is (for now). |
I've certainly been wrong in the past (yeah, there was that one time  ), but to me it feels different now, and a lot of people who have been right about a lot in the past are predicting essentially the collapse of the world's economic system, probably within the decade. I guess you do not share that outlook. |
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mises
Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired
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| Posted: Sat Jan 29, 2011 9:09 am Post subject: |
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SB, keep in mind that when financial analysts or economics use the term collapse they don't mean a total failure (generally). A collapse could mean a 10% decrease in the activity being described.
Additionally, when people like Peter Schiff use the term collapse it is to sell gold. Quite a bit of the 'end of world' econ stuff is a marketing strategy to sell gold/silver. When Schiff described (accurately) the "collapse" of the housing market that didn't mean houses went to zero, but that they returned to trend.
I am in the Steve Keen camp. A long, grinding depression that chews up the middle class. Economic life will continue, but ineqality will define our future. That will continue up until the point that Americans/Canadians decide that the French had it right and start parading heads around our cities.
On my more cynical days I find myself agreeing with Michael Hudson. He asserts that this depression is planned. Started with Argentina/Asian Tigers and moved to the West. The Argentinian implosion is very similar to ours. Citi convinced the government to absorb their bad debts. If Hudson is right then it will take a very strong leader to fix things. |
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