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Menino80
Joined: 10 Jun 2007
Location: Hodor?
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 Posted: Sat Feb 05, 2011 6:29 am Post subject: Star Wars, 2007 |
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/wikileaks/8299495/WikiLeaks-US-and-China-in-military-standoff-over-space-missiles.html
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The �star wars� arms race was began in January 2007 when China shocked the White House by shooting down one of its weather satellite 530 miles above the Earth.
The strike, which resulted in thousands of pieces of debris orbiting the earth, raised fears that the Chinese had the power to cause chaos by destroying US military and civilian satellites.
In February 2008, America launched its own �test� strike to destroy a malfunctioning American satellite, which demonstrated to the Chinese it also had the capability to strike in space.
America stated at the time that the strike was not a military test but a necessary mission to remove a faulty spy satellite.
The leaked documents appear to show its true intentions. |
This is interesting because IR scholars on China (Shambaugh, the SIRPI study) have stressed that the Party still controls the gun in China. They insist that things like the satellite strike and the J-30 unveiling are just normal procedural hiccups that all governments have when interacting with their military. However, these documents certainly show that as docile as the gun may or may not be in China, they really set of Condi Rice and threatened to make things pretty dicey. |
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rollo
Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China
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| Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2011 7:45 pm Post subject: |
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| The Chinese media and the military are constantly discussing challenging the U.s. militarily. It is a symptom of the triumphalism that seems to have infected the Chinese. They have provoked both India and Japan in recent months as if they have nothing to fear from either of them. They plan on attempting to build an aircraft carrier, a weapon from the 1940's to challenge the U.S. Much like the Qing emperor did not understand and underestimated the British military it seems the same thing is happening again. Arousing the Japanese is I think a dangerous route. Who's finger is on the gun in China is a very good question. The military often seems to operate independently from the government. |
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caniff
Joined: 03 Feb 2004
Location: All over the map
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| Posted: Sun Feb 06, 2011 7:49 pm Post subject: |
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| rollo wrote: |
| The Chinese media and the military are constantly discussing challenging the U.s. militarily. |
Kind of how Rain is poised to conquer the U.S. |
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Menino80
Joined: 10 Jun 2007
Location: Hodor?
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| Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2011 1:34 pm Post subject: |
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| caniff wrote: |
| rollo wrote: |
| The Chinese media and the military are constantly discussing challenging the U.s. militarily. |
Kind of how Rain is poised to conquer the U.S. |
I give us about 6 months before Rainism is being taught in elementary school.
China is certainly more aware of their rise than previous "rising" powers, but they don't really expect to make real challenge for the next twenty to forty years. |
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comm
Joined: 22 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2011 7:26 pm Post subject: |
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| Menino80 wrote: |
China is certainly more aware of their rise than previous "rising" powers, but they don't really expect to make real challenge for the next twenty to forty years. |
At current growth levels, that would be about right. However, I get the impression that "flexible" government officials are making the Chinese economy into a sprint rather than an endless marathon. It's good that they're spending a lot on infrastructure, but I feel like hard economic facts such as currency valuation, inflation, and market bubbles are going to hit hard if they aren't prepared for them. |
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rollo
Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China
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| Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2011 8:30 pm Post subject: |
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| Apparently some Chinese generals have called for a quick "clean" war in the near future . A combination of a massive cyber attack, knocking out the U.S. sattelite system and economic warfare. Of course no thinking about how the U.s. would respond. They seem to think their rise in inevitable. One general dismissed Japan by saying they are smaller than us. The current Chinese military leadership is not well educated about the West. Most never attended University since Mao closed Universities during the cultural revolution. |
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Menino80
Joined: 10 Jun 2007
Location: Hodor?
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| Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2011 8:59 pm Post subject: |
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| rollo wrote: |
| Apparently some Chinese generals have called for a quick "clean" war in the near future . A combination of a massive cyber attack, knocking out the U.S. sattelite system and economic warfare. Of course no thinking about how the U.s. would respond. They seem to think their rise in inevitable. One general dismissed Japan by saying they are smaller than us. The current Chinese military leadership is not well educated about the West. Most never attended University since Mao closed Universities during the cultural revolution. |
While I think that is true, by the time of the 5th Generations accession this will become less and less the case. Li Keqian, set to be Chairman of the State Council, will be the first Politburo standing member who went to law school. He's not on the CMC but still, it reflects that the higher ups are getting more and more diverse in their education. Also, Hu putting Xi Jinping on the CMC will make it more moderate. Usually the guys who come out with the aggressive stuff (Yang Yi for example) are retired.
The trend is inevitably towards professionalisation. Whether this will result is less hawkish behavior remains to be seen, a lot of guys from the West are real nativists:
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=37425&cHash=5e7ae7547b |
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