Korean Job Discussion Forums

[Menino80]

Quite long, but good for a podcast over the course of a few subway rides.

http://csis.org/event/beyond-ideology-changing-public-opinion-and-2012-south-korean-presidential-elections

A joint talk with CSIS Korea and the Asan Insititute of Policy Studies in regards to Korean popular sentiment and its domestic and international implications.


There's a lot of fat until about 7:00, while Woo Jung Yeop goes over the methodology, but it's very current. Woo's English is not stellar and he's followed by another native SK lass, but I havne't gotten that far yet. The audio is underneath the video.

The first part as far as I can tell is a discussion of three main issues for determining liberal and conservative: Social Issues, Econ Issue, and Norkylvania. is it worth 110 minutes? time will tell.

some interesting opinions:

40% believe unification is not necessary, almost all because of economic reasons
most liberal/progressive view ROK/US alliance is necessary, tied to assurance issues.
50% SK citizens believe the US will use nukes on NK.
45% SK don't want SK nukes, 55% think yes

53% prefer growth to income redistribution, only 5.5% want higher taxes
most want more unions, but sharply divided along conservative/liberal

85% of SK have negative views of homosexuals
28.4% cannot accept marriage with a foreigner, 12.7% depends on skin color, 12.5% on where the foreigner, 7.5% on foreigners' income
28.9% say foreigner or not doesn't matter

conservatives skew old, liberals skew young

[Menino80]

SELF IDENTIFYING:

In their 60s+: 45% Conservative (Grand National + various smaller parties) 22% Liberal (Democrat and others)
In their 20s: 22% Conservative 32% Liberal

IDENTIFIED BY STUDY

National security:
NK Is absorbed by SK vs. equal union, military vs. economic measure for cooercion/persuasion
Economic:
Labor unions; Growth v. taxes
Social issues:
Migrants/Foreigners, Homosexuals, Abortion, Freedom over public norms


Social issues have the strongest coefficient with self-identification with personal ideology

National Security is far and away #1 explanatory value towards Party affiliation, hence anti US sentiment being a strong vote getter.Social issues and economic issues are by and large identical by party

Go Myung-Hun around 39:00 notes that political freedom and public corruption perception index in SK has steadily declined since 1995, protests have doubled. He comes to the conclusion that "we don't really know what these people are protesting about."


http://csis.org/files/attachments/110128_AIPS_Delegation_AGENDA.pd

[Ya-ta Boy]

Forecast: Ms Park and the GNP walk away with the election.

[Captain Corea]

[Menino80]

[jvalmer]

[Ya-ta Boy]

I don't recall social issues ever playing much of a role in South Korean elections, so I think we can ignore them in this thread.

The economy did not suffer like so much of the rest of the world in the Great Recession. Unemployment was 'high', but most of the people I talked to put the blame for that on the world economy. The KOSPI has been at all time highs lately. The people I hear are debating whether to sell and take their profits or hold on and reap even bigger profits later. People will credit the GNP with solid economics when election time comes around.

The only foreign affair that really matters is relations with North Korea. While everyone wishes things were better with the North, everyone I know blames the North for the bad relations. I get the sense that South Korea has grown up in terms of self confidence in the past year. All I hear is that the North should stop their provocations, and if they don't then the South should slap them down. Again, I think the GNP gains with the electorate on this.

Barring a major scandal (including a military defeat), the next election is the GNP's to lose.

[NohopeSeriously]

[BoholDiver]

It looks like Park will win the next election. She's inept, but the left are even more inept.

Maybe in 5-10 years Oh Se Hoon can be president. He will be 2MB version 2.0.

I laugh when I think of how Korea is with left and right. Their left is my right.

[NohopeSeriously]

There are few reasons why South Korean politics is so messed up.

First, the whole political system is an inefficient mix of American presidential and German-style parliamentary system. It's still uncertain who gets the substantial power.
Second, it became more right wing thanks to the past history of dictatorships.
Third, big business has too much influence.

So far, The Participation Party (the party that follows Roh's legacy) has a greater chance in the next election. Let's face it. Korean youths in general love Roh over the current Lee and the middle age people are avoiding the GNP but still cautious towards Park Gyeun-hye.

[Captain Corea]

Korean youth love Noh?? Seriously? What age are you talking about?

Youth being under 25? I don't think they give a snot about Noh. 25-40 would be the Left's base. Under that, and it varies too much. The Korean 'Youth' of today have a less leftist leaning that their predecessors.

[NohopeSeriously]

[Captain Corea]

[NohopeSeriously]

[Captain Corea]

I disagree. I think theres going to be bickering, but once Park is nominated, Hanara-dang will be behind her... and she'll most likely pull off the win.