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Canadian housing crash looming
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

kimchipig wrote:
Captain Corea wrote:
Does anyone know much about Canadians buying property in the US? Are there a lot of hoops?


Nope, easy as pie. Just take money and buy. I recently bought a house in Arizona. It was valued at $448,000 in 2008 and I got it at action for $125,000.


Shoot, with that amount of savings... you could just live in it as an unemployed house-coater and not have to worry about work for a bit of time.

Is it easy to a Canuck to live in the US if ya own property?
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kimchipig



Joined: 07 Mar 2008

PostPosted: Mon Sep 13, 2010 7:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote=
Is it easy to a Canuck to live in the US if ya own property?[/quote]

I bought my place as an investment, it is rented. People always need a place to live. A Canadian can stay in the USA for six months on a visitor visa. Owning property makes getting a business visa much easier.

Wanting to live in the USA at the moment is another issue. The economy there is really bad, big time bad so it is hard to make any money there. However, taking Canadian dollars there is an extravaganza: everything is at like half price of Canada. Is this a good thing? Well, if you come from a country, like Canada, which has been basically untouched by the world slump, it is great since it is so cheap. On the other hand, one cannot help but think such as depressed economy is not doing anybody any good in the long term.

But for now, travelling in the USA is dirt cheap. We did our last winter holiday in Hawaii, a place we avoided for years due to cost. A non-stop flight from Bellingham as C$450 and we had decent accommodation on Kauai for $50 a night. I even got scuba dives for $40. Five years ago you could at least double these prices.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Fri Sep 17, 2010 7:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Calgary is an extremely affluent place:

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/thewest/Calgary+leads+other+cities+median+family+income/3534153/story.html

Quote:
OTTAWA � Calgary led all other metropolitan areas in median family income, followed by Edmonton and Ottawa-Gatineau, according to data derived from 2008 personal income-tax returns, Statistics Canada said Thursday.

The largest percentage increases in median-family income were recorded in Saskatoon, up 4.1 per cent, St. John's, up four per cent, and Greater Sudbury, Ont., up 3.9 per cent.

The largest dollar increases were also recorded in St. John's, up 4.1 per cent, and Saskatoon, up 3.8 per cent.

Families in Calgary brought in $91,570 in 2008, well ahead of the Canadian average of $68,860, the federal agency reported.


Median-family income in Edmonton was noted at $88,190, while those in the census metropolitan area of Ottawa-Gatineau was $87,160.

For Canada overall, the figure was $68,860. It has risen steadily from $47,300 in 1998, Statistics Canada data show.


Prices falling is a good thing. People can save more, spend more, invest more because they aren't devoting so much of their income to housing.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Fri Sep 17, 2010 7:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Is the Victoria Real Estate Bubble Bursting?


(Yes)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wwzX7gm2GPI

Sales down 75% y/o/y. Wow.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 1:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Time for an update:

http://www.housepriceindex.ca/admin.aspx?mode=voirHTML&nonews=122&qui=4465&langue=EN

Quote:
Canadian home prices in September were down 1.1% from the previous month, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index�. The monthly decline ended a string of 16 consecutive increases in the composite index since the last monthly deflation in April 2009. For the first time since February 2009, prices fell in all six of the metropolitan markets surveyed. The declines were 2.4% in Halifax, 2.2% in Calgary, 1.6% in Toronto, 0.5% in Ottawa and 0.3% in Montreal and Vancouver. For Vancouver it was the third consecutive monthly decrease and for Calgary it was the second.


So the various state schemes bought 16 months of appreciation. The appreciation will now be wiped out. More wasted billions.

And:

http://financialinsights.wordpress.com/2010/11/30/headwinds-revisited-canadas-q3-gdp-slows-markedly-turns-negative-in-september/

Canada's back in it.
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 4:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

and always worth noting...

http://www.greaterfool.ca/

Quote:
Well, one in which the Canadian economy, outside of the delusional housing market, is a swamp. We already heard this week that our trade is in massive deficit with the rest of the world as imports swell and exports wither. Since the autumn of 2008 there have been eight quarters. Guess how many of those we have run a trade deficit. Yup. Eight.

And Tuesday we get the latest GDP number for the last few months � measuring economic growth. It will be as impressive as the return you get on, oh, a RBC high-yield savings account.
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 4:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/calgary/story/2011/01/17/flaherty-mortgage-changes.html

Quote:
Flaherty tightens mortgage taps

Flaherty unveiled three main changes:

�The maximum amortization period for a government-insured mortgage was lowered from 35 to 30 years.
�The upper limit that Canadians can borrow against their home equity was lowered from 90 per cent to 85 per cent.
�Government insurance backing on home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs, has been removed.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

^ They're going to try and manage a slow decline.

Why was CMHC insuring HELOCs?
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Kimbop



Joined: 31 Mar 2008

PostPosted: Thu Feb 03, 2011 8:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
OTTAWA - A new report predicts that Canada's housing market is poised for a collapse and is only waiting for the trigger of rising interest rates expected for later this year � a view that flies in the face of many other forecasts.

Capital Economics calculates Canadian home prices could fall by about 25 per cent � and even as much as 35 per cent � over the next three years once the Bank of Canada begins tightening monetary policy.



http://ca.news.yahoo.com/interest-rate-rise-could-trigger-house-price-collapse-20110203-113320-984.html

But Minister Flaherty says we're not in a bubble, so we must be fine.
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mises



Joined: 05 Nov 2007
Location: retired

PostPosted: Thu Feb 03, 2011 9:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Look what's happened in Van:

http://www.yattermatters.com/2011/02/vancouver-average-price-unprecedented/

Quote:
2011 starts with an average price bar raised to a higher level as it begins with an unprecedented average price of $1,144,537.


That's for a detached house. Average.

When does a bubble start? 2mil for a house in a city with 75k median total income?
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Kimbop



Joined: 31 Mar 2008

PostPosted: Fri Mar 04, 2011 11:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
OTTAWA -- Canada's housing market is reaching the limits of sustainability and could tumble if there is no moderation, the Bank of Montreal says.

The bank notes Canada's hot housing market is still not in the red zone for prices, but it's getting there.


http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/business/tumble-in-house-market-feared-117393473.html
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2011 6:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/why-home-ownership-may-just-be-a-pipe-dream/article1990160/

Quote:
Why renting is beginning to look like a great deal

Why are so many people still rushing to buy homes in an environment where the average price across the country is a little more than $371,000, with average prices in Vancouver at $786,311, Toronto at $456,147 and Calgary at $398,836?

Combine these high prices with the years of rising interest rates that lie ahead and you have a situation where affordability is declining and will continue to do so.

Some say there�s a bubble in home prices. It�s easier to make a case that we�re in a home-buying bubble where people are purchasing homes at a rate that exceeds what could be considered sensible or rational.

Here are a few ways to tell whether a home purchase makes sense in today�s market:

* The monthly cost of carrying your mortgage and other debts plus your monthly share of property taxes and heating is markedly lower than the maximum 40 per cent of gross monthly household income permitted by lenders.

* You have discussed with your lender how much your payments would be if interest rates rise either a little or a lot in the next several years, and you are comfortable with the results.

* You�ve got a good start on saving for retirement and can foresee being able to make at least modest contributions in your early years as a homeowner.

* If you have kids, you�re able to regularly put money away in a registered education savings plan.

* You have a plan for finding the money to furnish your new home, take family trips and cover emergency expenses without going into debt.



hmmmm... is the MSM catching on?

best quote:

Quote:
Do not base your thinking about your ability to afford a house strictly on what lenders or real estate agents tell you. They may have useful guidance, but their goal is to sell mortgages and houses.
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Fri May 20, 2011 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2011/05/20/housing-rbc-affordability.html

Quote:
Housing affordability eroding: RBC

Home ownership became less affordable during the first quarter, especially in Vancouver where it took nearly three-quarters of family income to pay for mortgages, property taxes and utilities, according to an RBC Economics report.

RBC said that while a detached bungalow in Vancouver ate up an average 72.1 per cent of income, up 3.4 percentage points, while costs in other major Canadian cities were also on the rise.

In Toronto, housing expenses ate up an average of 47.5 per cent of income (up 0.8 of a percentage point), while in Montreal it was 43.1 per cent (up two percentage points), and Calgary devoured 35.9 per cent of income (up 0.9 of a percentage point).

Other key cities like Ottawa expenses took 39 per cent of income (up 0.4 of a percentage point) and in Edmonton it was 31.5 per cent (up 0.5 of a percentage point).

...

"Interest rates will likely soon start to rise again, leading to a period of steady increases in homeownership costs. This, in turn, will contribute to a flattening in Canadian housing demand going forward," said Hogue.

"We could experience some turbulence this spring and summer, given that new tighter mortgage lending rules in March and April likely shifted home buying activity to earlier in the year."
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TECO



Joined: 20 Jan 2003

PostPosted: Mon May 23, 2011 7:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

For you Canadians, how does Winnipeg sound for buying a rental property? Would an apartment or house still be affordable in Winnipeg compared to the other big cities where housing is quite expensive?
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Mon May 23, 2011 7:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Compared to what?

IMO, Winnipeg is the armpit of Canada. Sure, there seems to be nice parts to it, but overall, I've never liked the place.

From a quick search, it looks like you'll be looking for houses from 320K and up.
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