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sirius black
Joined: 04 Jun 2010
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 Posted: Thu Apr 14, 2011 9:29 pm Post subject: |
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| ytide wrote: |
| isitts wrote: |
| what about European countries? Are they all going to switch over to Chinese just because China wills it? |
Actually, yes. By the end of this century, and if nothing changes (China's soaring growth, USA and Europe and Japan in neverending "lost decades"...it's simple Mathematics).
Of course, as everyone points out, Yellow Peril fears were about Japan 20-25 years ago, now they are all about China. Same fear, same storyline, and, soon, the same burst-bubble. China will go the way of Japan, soon settling into cozy stagnation. There's just no way it could be otherwise. |
Japan stagnated for a long time and STILL remained the 2nd largest economy till last year.
In America's rise, America had a few economic collapses, some almost bankrupted us and I don't mean the Great depression. America's rise is replete with them, the Panics of 1819, 1873, 1893 and 1907. One in particular was much worse than the Great Depression as JP Morgan and the bankers (who started it all), had to litterally bail out the country.
China will experience similar fates. Japan did and its still the 3rd largest ecnonomy by a long way.
So, even if China has a serious downturn and they will, they can still eventually become bigger than America. China is tied to everyone so if China has a big downturn they will NOT suffer alone. The rest of the world will as well just like it does with the U.S.
One can not say Japan didn't become bigger than the U.S. so China won't. Apples and Oranges. There are a myriad of ways China is so much different than Japan. Its wrong to compare the two and come to the same conclusion.
China's growth is meteoric. In less than a generation its gone from not beng a G8 or probably even a G20 nation to being the 2nd largest economy. Its unheard of. It can't sustain it. No one can but neither did the U.S. either as evidenced by our history, we have had recessions just about every decade. China has more in common with the U.S. in the late 1800s to the early part of the 1900s than it does to 1980s Japan. Far more in common. |
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isitts
Joined: 25 Dec 2008
Location: Korea
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| Posted: Thu Apr 14, 2011 10:16 pm Post subject: |
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| sirius black wrote: |
| isitts wrote: |
| sirius black wrote: |
History is replete with examples that the top political-eonomic power's language became the language of trade and/or diplomacy.
If China, if current trends continue, becomes the world's largest economy, then over time why should they be the sole exception historically?
No one thought french being used as the language of diplomacy and commerce would ever end in Europe 300 years ago. It ended why? First England then America became the pre-eminent power.
Maybe english won't be replaced but if one believes that it won't after America is no longer biggest economy and is second to China economically and politically globally, then you're suggesting that an exception to historical precedence would happen. |
Well, I gave a few reasons why back on page 4. Circumstances are not the same now as they were with France.
Although...my gut feeling says you could be right. |
In the near future English will continue to be the language of trade. For the purposes of the OPs question, the future of teaching english in Korea won't change significantly for us. I do think there will be a lot of chinese schools popping up here and there but english will be dominan. In a generation or two in may not be the case.
With regards to your statement about english being used. First England was the biggest economic power throughout the 1800s and had a huge empire in every continent. The sun never sets on the British Empire was a saying and a fact. Then America surpassed Britain's GNP around the turn of the last century and became the biggest economic power so there was an even bigger reason to learn english. The top two economic powers up to world war 2 spoke english. After WW2 we were the only economic power left. That's why people spoke english as a 2nd language. Econoimic power brings with it the need to speak the language of who has that power. People were taking Japanese in the '80s because of their rise and so many japanese companies were buying into America. Why is spanish becoming so important as a 2nd language in America? Because latinos have an immense buying power and companies and people want to tap into that market. You can't get a job in local government in the Miami area unless you know spanish.
Difficulty or not, if the Chinese become the pre-eminent economic power is language will become important. The chinese won't be trying to learn english because people need to come to them so they will expect you know their language just like German, French and Dutch companies who come to America must learn english.
Eventually, because of need, there could be some sort of business chinese standard to ease trade. Money will find a way. Swahili was some hybrid mosh posh of languages to make trade easier between the various african tribes and arabs.
English is not an easy language itself. Some could argue it was too difficult to learn it when the British and then America took over as economic powers. English is ofen cited as one of the hardest languages to become fluent in (mandarin even moreso, a point I concede) but people had to learn it to do business with American companies. If I'm an Indian, Brazilian or French company wouldn't it be better to hire someone who can speak and write chinese to conduct my business in China than someone who speaks and writes english? Wouldn't I want an advantage over my competitors in china by having someone who speaks mandarin represent me? I would advertise for chinese speakers and as other companies follow suit those who want to work for those companies would learn chinese. Didn't the same happen with American companies in the '80s who were doing business with Japan? Doesn't the same happen with any company or city or state government in America that wants to communicate or do business with the spanish speaking community? |
You make good points. And I'm inclined to agree with this logic. And true, I don't think the difficulty of the language matters. English isn't that easy.
The only differences I point out is that French (and Swahili) was (were) not a native language to multiple countries. But maybe that doesn't matter.
I mentioned the Britsh influence because, even though they aren't the world power now, the impact they left still remains: 6 native speaking countries (using UK as an umbrella for the countries within) and Hong Kong, Singapore, and India speaking English as an official second language.
It's one thing for all of Europe to speak French, but quite another when all the world is speaking English. China would have to throw some considerable weight around for all the world to speak Chinese (although, Hong Kong and Singapore wouldn't take much effort). But maybe they will.
And if they do to the extent that Britain and America did (returning to topic, though I think all of this was related to topic), then our jobs are toast. |
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sirius black
Joined: 04 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2011 1:33 am Post subject: |
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England had the world's biggest empire. It stands to reason its former colonies would adopt it as a 2nd language. India, Singapore, Hong Kong were all former colonies. All the countries that are accepted by Korea for english teaching were ALL at one point colonies of Britain. Makes sense they speak english, just like how Haiti, Senegal, Quebec province and Vietnam spoke french either as a primary or secondary language. They were all former french colonies.
Difficulty of the Chinese is inconsequential. Money finds its own and people have always learned the language of the people that have the money. Been that way for centuries. People learned Latin (and Greek) in Roman times because Rome was where the money was.
The American GNP dwarfs everyone else. No one comes close, not even China, so it makes logical sense for English to be the language of trade. The last two biggest economies spoke English, America and before it the British Empire so English has had well over a century of being the language of the top economies.
Again, it doesn't matter how difficult chinese is, people will learn it if its a means to get rich. Just how countless immigrants from Asia learned English despite it being extremely difficult for them. Greed is good as the movie Wall Street says and greed will learn Chinese if it deems it important enough. |
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some waygug-in
Joined: 25 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2011 5:42 am Post subject: |
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I read a post on this forum a few years back. It went something like this...
I used to think China was going to be the next super-power and the Asian economy would soon dwarf the rest of the world,
then I came here...  |
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ytide
Joined: 26 Jul 2009
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| Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2011 9:03 am Post subject: |
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| some waygug-in wrote: |
I used to think China was going to be the next super-power and the Asian economy would soon dwarf the rest of the world,
then I came here... |
Praising the South-Korean education system has been trendy in the USA lately. The Koreaphiles' implication is that their schools produce far superior adults than ours do. We need to copy their system.
The people pushing this crazy idea have clearly have never seen Korean education up close and personal. |
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West Coast Tatterdemalion
Joined: 31 Aug 2010
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| Posted: Fri Apr 15, 2011 6:41 pm Post subject: |
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| Yes, things like the Korean education system and the key money system need to stay in Korea and not taken up anywhere else. |
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