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actionjackson
Joined: 30 Dec 2007
Location: Any place I'm at
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 Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 9:21 pm Post subject: The end is nearer than previously thought? |
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Came across this this morning and thought I'd throw it up on here to get the thoughts and opinions of people who probably know more about it than me.
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The International Monetary Fund has just dropped a bombshell, and nobody noticed.
For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the "Age of America" will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.
And it's a lot closer than you may think.
According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China's economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 � just five years from now.
Put that in your calendar.
It provides a painful context for the budget wrangling taking place in Washington right now. It raises enormous questions about what the international security system is going to look like in just a handful of years. And it casts a deepening cloud over both the U.S. dollar and the giant Treasury market, which have been propped up for decades by their privileged status as the liabilities of the world's hegemonic power.
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http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/112616/imf-bombshell-age-america-end-marketwatch |
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hondaicivic
Joined: 01 Jul 2010
Location: Daegu, South Korea
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| Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 9:56 pm Post subject: Re: The end is nearer than previously thought? |
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| actionjackson wrote: |
Came across this this morning and thought I'd throw it up on here to get the thoughts and opinions of people who probably know more about it than me.
| Quote: |
The International Monetary Fund has just dropped a bombshell, and nobody noticed.
For the first time, the international organization has set a date for the moment when the "Age of America" will end and the U.S. economy will be overtaken by that of China.
And it's a lot closer than you may think.
According to the latest IMF official forecasts, China's economy will surpass that of America in real terms in 2016 � just five years from now.
Put that in your calendar.
It provides a painful context for the budget wrangling taking place in Washington right now. It raises enormous questions about what the international security system is going to look like in just a handful of years. And it casts a deepening cloud over both the U.S. dollar and the giant Treasury market, which have been propped up for decades by their privileged status as the liabilities of the world's hegemonic power.
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http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/112616/imf-bombshell-age-america-end-marketwatch |
Keep dreaming buddy......China will collapsed before any of us do, either due to overpopulation (unable to feed itself) or their toxic pollution. |
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northway
Joined: 05 Jul 2010
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| Posted: Tue Apr 26, 2011 10:02 pm Post subject: |
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| I'm not sure who China sells anything to in the face of the US economy collapsing. |
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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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| Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 2:33 am Post subject: |
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China has many smart, hard working people, and the standard of living continues to rise. But it has no future as a leader of anything. It is still a hopelessly corrupt country, and essentially just a captive market for Western finance and corporations.
At the end of the day their growth is based on exporting massive amounts of goods to the West in exchange mainly for US dollars (now over $2 trillion in surplus). This is a giant swindle. The US fiat currency is now being debased at such a rapid pace by the government that we can safely assume it's deliberate (it's also been announced that it will be replaced as the global reserve currency in the media). It will be devalued, phased out, and/or collapse, and will be replaced with a new partially gold backed currency (likely a global currency, to which a totally new "US dollar" will be backed). China will be left with a treasury full of worthless paper (and even if they try to sell off their dollars it would only lead to hyperinflation and undermine the value of their dollar assets even faster). After losing much, they will eventually have to back their currency to the new global one, which will be controlled by the West.
Since Western banks own by far the majority of the world's gold (China has very little), they still hold the cards in respect to finance. That is what it really boils down to. Combined with the US having the most powerful military on earth by several orders of magnitude, and that's why the Western elite still rules the world. |
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recessiontime
Joined: 21 Jun 2010
Location: Got avatar privileges nyahahaha
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| Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 2:52 am Post subject: |
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| fascinating post visitor. I pretty much agree with all of it except I'm not sure the next currency replacing the USD will be fiat backed by anything but guns and/or debt. I guess we'll have to see what happens. |
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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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| Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 3:31 am Post subject: |
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| recessiontime wrote: |
| I'm not sure the next currency replacing the USD will be fiat backed by anything but guns and/or debt. I guess we'll have to see what happens. |
Yes, that's definitely a strong possibility too. The IMF's SDRs are already a sort of global fiat currency (basket of currencies not backed by gold). China is favorable to SDRs (the governor of their central bank has proposed switching to them as a global reserve in place of the USD), but I would assume not as much in favor of something like the Bancor, which was conceptualized (by Keynes in the 1940's) as a global gold-backed currency. |
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johnnyenglishteacher2
Joined: 03 Dec 2010
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| Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 3:42 am Post subject: |
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| visitorq wrote: |
| Since Western banks own by far the majority of the world's gold (China has very little), they still hold the cards in respect to finance. That is what it really boils down to. Combined with the US having the most powerful military on earth by several orders of magnitude, and that's why the Western elite still rules the world. |
There's a big difference between having the world's largest military and being able to use the world's largest military. For example, will the USA have the financial means to go to war in Asia in the future? Those warships and Apaches use a hell of a lot of fuel... |
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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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| Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 4:21 am Post subject: |
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| johnnyenglishteacher2 wrote: |
| visitorq wrote: |
| Since Western banks own by far the majority of the world's gold (China has very little), they still hold the cards in respect to finance. That is what it really boils down to. Combined with the US having the most powerful military on earth by several orders of magnitude, and that's why the Western elite still rules the world. |
There's a big difference between having the world's largest military and being able to use the world's largest military. For example, will the USA have the financial means to go to war in Asia in the future? |
The answer is probably yes. Not only have they been able to go to war, but certain sectors of the economy (MIC) depend on it.
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| Those warships and Apaches use a hell of a lot of fuel... |
True, but there's no shortage. Most of the world's oil is valued in dollars.
Regardless, it probably wouldn't be a direct war with China since they have a large nuclear arsenal. I suppose I could delve into science-fiction and speculate that the US military has such advanced classified superweapons that it could wipe out China and neutralise any nuclear reprisal, but I won't bother since I don't know for sure... Regardless, China is already fairly well contained (large US presence in Japan and SK), but most of the active US forces have been deployed in the Middle East for a reason. |
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GENO123
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
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| Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 4:40 am Post subject: |
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| GDP and PPP are different. In 2016 China's GDP will still be far less than that of the US. |
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Paddycakes
Joined: 05 May 2003
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 5:01 am Post subject: |
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People said the same thing about Japan not too long ago, and look where Japan is today.
America's in an economic slump right now so everyone is doom and gloom.
But America will pickup again... just like Rocky... |
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NohopeSeriously
Joined: 17 Jan 2011
Location: The Christian Right-Wing Educational Republic of Korea
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| Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 5:22 am Post subject: Re: The end is nearer than previously thought? |
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| hondaicivic wrote: |
| Keep dreaming buddy......China will collapsed before any of us do, either due to overpopulation (unable to feed itself) or their toxic pollution. |
That's what people said in 2007, 2008.... |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 6:08 am Post subject: |
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| johnnyenglishteacher2 wrote: |
| visitorq wrote: |
| Since Western banks own by far the majority of the world's gold (China has very little), they still hold the cards in respect to finance. That is what it really boils down to. Combined with the US having the most powerful military on earth by several orders of magnitude, and that's why the Western elite still rules the world. |
There's a big difference between having the world's largest military and being able to use the world's largest military. For example, will the USA have the financial means to go to war in Asia in the future? Those warships and Apaches use a hell of a lot of fuel... |
You made a good point but applied it to the wrong country. Except for elite units, most of China's PLA can only engage in "people's war." People's war is essentially guerilla war and would very much resemble the North Korean strategy employed in the Korean War; fade into the countryside and wait for the enemy to approach, then attack. This was a tenet of Mao Zedong thought. Nevertheless, since Deng, China has been moving to modernize its military. IOW, move away from people's war. This modernization has had mixed results. |
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johnnyenglishteacher2
Joined: 03 Dec 2010
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| Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 8:55 am Post subject: |
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| visitorq wrote: |
| johnnyenglishteacher2 wrote: |
| visitorq wrote: |
| Since Western banks own by far the majority of the world's gold (China has very little), they still hold the cards in respect to finance. That is what it really boils down to. Combined with the US having the most powerful military on earth by several orders of magnitude, and that's why the Western elite still rules the world. |
There's a big difference between having the world's largest military and being able to use the world's largest military. For example, will the USA have the financial means to go to war in Asia in the future? |
The answer is probably yes. Not only have they been able to go to war, but certain sectors of the economy (MIC) depend on it.
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| Those warships and Apaches use a hell of a lot of fuel... |
True, but there's no shortage. Most of the world's oil is valued in dollars.
Regardless, it probably wouldn't be a direct war with China since they have a large nuclear arsenal. I suppose I could delve into science-fiction and speculate that the US military has such advanced classified superweapons that it could wipe out China and neutralise any nuclear reprisal, but I won't bother since I don't know for sure... Regardless, China is already fairly well contained (large US presence in Japan and SK), but most of the active US forces have been deployed in the Middle East for a reason. |
Sorry, I was referring to the size of the US deficit, as well as rising costs, as reasons why the USA might not be able to go to war quite so easily in the future. But I didn't explain myself very well.  |
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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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| Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 9:08 am Post subject: |
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| johnnyenglishteacher2 wrote: |
| Sorry, I was referring to the size of the US deficit, as well as rising costs, as reasons why the USA might not be able to go to war quite so easily in the future. But I didn't explain myself very well. |
While I think it is possible for them to bankrupt the country to such an extent that the military industrial complex would fall apart, I don't think we're at that point yet... The middle class would be sucked dry first (as is happening), but military spending would be the last thing to go.
The central banking warfare model is fairly effective at the end of the day as long as the state remains strong; just look at how far things deteriorated in the Soviet Union before it finally bit the dust (even then a major war probably would have infused new life into it). This is why turning the US into more and more of a police state goes hand in hand with the political will to continue current and launch new wars. If the general public stopped participating in the current corrupt monetary system, that would put an end to it fairly quickly; but that's hard to do when federal taxes are imposed at gunpoint and our leaders are mostly ex Goldman-Sachs executives (representing shareholders of the MIC) who profit from war and literally make record profits off of swindling and bankrupting the middle class. |
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Ya-ta Boy
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994
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| Posted: Wed Apr 27, 2011 2:52 pm Post subject: |
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| It won't matter what technical economic measure is used, when China surpasses the US, the paranoids among us are going to freak out. They will then have a statistic to wave around and use to further reduce the social safety net and build up defense. At least in the Cold War the Ruskies were white. |
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