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depth
Joined: 01 Feb 2008
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 Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2011 7:42 am Post subject: aussie $ exchange rate advice - hold or sell? |
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just after some forecasting advice for australian dollar / Korean won exchange rate....
is it better to transfer money home to australia each month or hold and wait for a better exchange rate?
is there some website i can go to for forecasts?
the exchange rate has gotten continually worse since 1998...so not sure if it will continue on this trend or if it will reverse?
thanks for any advice
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GoldMember
Joined: 24 Oct 2006
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| Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2011 4:06 pm Post subject: |
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The FOREX experts on this board, would rather make $3,000 a month teaching English, than make $1,000,000 a year as a FOREX guru.
Dave's the place to get advice on forex, how to build a nuclear device, and hints on performing brain surgery. |
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Ramen
Joined: 15 Apr 2008
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| Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2011 4:11 pm Post subject: |
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| GoldMember wrote: |
The FOREX experts on this board, would rather make $3,000 a month teaching English, than make $1,000,000 a year as a FOREX guru.
Dave's the place to get advice on forex, how to build a nuclear device, and hints on performing brain surgery. |
and legal advice.  |
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PRagic
Joined: 24 Feb 2006
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| Posted: Tue Jun 14, 2011 10:55 pm Post subject: |
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For what it's worth, the WSJ just reported on a potential weakening of the Aussie buck, stemming mostly from decrease in demand in related export markets and internal monetary policy.
Either way, the Aussie is strong now, so exchanging it now and sending it back seems like a hasty move. Odds are it won't get stronger, and if it weakens, you're looking at an upside.
Oh, and I'm not an English teacher, and I made about 5K on the Aussie on the ride up.  |
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samd
Joined: 03 Jan 2007
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| Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 12:42 am Post subject: |
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| PRagic wrote: |
For what it's worth, the WSJ just reported on a potential weakening of the Aussie buck, stemming mostly from decrease in demand in related export markets and internal monetary policy.
Either way, the Aussie is strong now, so exchanging it now and sending it back seems like a hasty move. Odds are it won't get stronger, and if it weakens, you're looking at an upside.
Oh, and I'm not an English teacher, and I made about 5K on the Aussie on the ride up. |
For what it's worth? Absolutely nothing. As already mentioned, noone can predict exchange rates. If you claim you can you're an idiot at best, a liar at worst.
Oh and congratulations on your 5K (I bet it changed your life), and not being an English teacher (bragworthy indeed). |
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SNOTOSEOUL
Joined: 12 Apr 2010
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| Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 3:51 am Post subject: |
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I found a few websites with high-mid-low speculation on currencies. It predicted that the won would strengthen against the dollar and it was correct. Maybe go to one of those sites and make the judgement. If all their predictions look bad, send it home every month. if all look good maybe wait.
Then north korea atttacks the south and the won looses all value. ahhhhhhhh. and your burning chon won to stay warm and............................. |
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big_fella1
Joined: 08 Dec 2005
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| Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 4:20 am Post subject: Re: aussie $ exchange rate advice - hold or sell? |
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| depth wrote: |
just after some forecasting advice for australian dollar / Korean won exchange rate....
is it better to transfer money home to australia each month or hold and wait for a better exchange rate?
is there some website i can go to for forecasts?
the exchange rate has gotten continually worse since 1998...so not sure if it will continue on this trend or if it will reverse?
thanks for any advice
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Mate, depending on who you bank with and how much money we are talking sending money home each month isn't the best option regardless of the exchange rate.
When I transfer home I pay a fee here, then NAB makes $20 disappear then my building society charges me $10. An expensive transaction.
You can buy a bank draft payable to you here and send it home but a draft is probably about w10,000 plus postage
Go to a big bank here and checkout their multi-currency account options or just keep it in KRW, as I think and hope the AUD (Little Aussie Battler) may have a correction in the near future, but what do I know, I teach English. |
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PRagic
Joined: 24 Feb 2006
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| Posted: Wed Jun 15, 2011 5:41 pm Post subject: |
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@ samd...yawn...
Step 1: Raise hand to shoulder level, palm facing your body
Step 2: Wipe off the chip
Step 3: Drive on
I only threw the 'not an English teacher' line in there as someone suggested that nobody on the board has any experience related to exchange rates. For what it's worth (as that line seems to grate on you), I've worked in international trade and foreign direct investment, and, though I hate to tick you off, I have a Ph.D. in this crap.
Can you predict them? Nope. Can you follow trends and make educated guesses? Sure. Can you follow cross-rate, spot and forward rate trends? Sure. Can you estimate demand in near short term based on market and commodity fundamentals? Sure. Did 5K 'change my life'? Uh, no, but it beat a kick in the teeth.
Actually, big_fella1 hits the nail on the head. The Xrate market is set up to discourage individual investors from speculating in the short term. These days, we've just seen highly volitile shifts. If I had yen right now...! |
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samd
Joined: 03 Jan 2007
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| Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2011 4:20 am Post subject: |
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| PRagic wrote: |
@ samd...yawn...
Step 1: Raise hand to shoulder level, palm facing your body
Step 2: Wipe off the chip
Step 3: Drive on
I only threw the 'not an English teacher' line in there as someone suggested that nobody on the board has any experience related to exchange rates. For what it's worth (as that line seems to grate on you), I've worked in international trade and foreign direct investment, and, though I hate to tick you off, I have a Ph.D. in this crap.
Can you predict them? Nope. Can you follow trends and make educated guesses? Sure. Can you follow cross-rate, spot and forward rate trends? Sure. Can you estimate demand in near short term based on market and commodity fundamentals? Sure. Did 5K 'change my life'? Uh, no, but it beat a kick in the teeth.
Actually, big_fella1 hits the nail on the head. The Xrate market is set up to discourage individual investors from speculating in the short term. These days, we've just seen highly volitile shifts. If I had yen right now...! |
Thank you. |
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depth
Joined: 01 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Fri Jul 15, 2011 6:42 am Post subject: |
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| PRagic wrote: |
For what it's worth, the WSJ just reported on a potential weakening of the Aussie buck, stemming mostly from decrease in demand in related export markets and internal monetary policy.
Either way, the Aussie is strong now, so exchanging it now and sending it back seems like a hasty move. Odds are it won't get stronger, and if it weakens, you're looking at an upside.
Oh, and I'm not an English teacher, and I made about 5K on the Aussie on the ride up. |
nice info - look as though its coming to be spot on |
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isisaredead
Joined: 18 May 2010
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| Posted: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:32 pm Post subject: |
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i'm aussie.
i'm holding. for another four months. maybe.
i've seen some bizarre fluctuations in the past four years.
there you go. |
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depth
Joined: 01 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Tue Jul 26, 2011 11:32 pm Post subject: |
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the latest change not so good....would the best advice still be to hold?
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DaHu
Joined: 09 Feb 2011
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2011 2:40 am Post subject: |
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If I need the money in my home country, I send it home.
If I need it here, I don't send it home.
Problem solved! |
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nate1983
Joined: 30 Mar 2008
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| Posted: Wed Jul 27, 2011 3:13 pm Post subject: |
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| PRagic wrote: |
I only threw the 'not an English teacher' line in there as someone suggested that nobody on the board has any experience related to exchange rates. For what it's worth (as that line seems to grate on you), I've worked in international trade and foreign direct investment, and, though I hate to tick you off, I have a Ph.D. in this crap. |
I've actually spent 5 months on the FX trading desk at a large international bank (my current employer), and have graduate degrees in math and econ, so I'm guessing that may qualify as well..
Anyway, a couple points I'll throw in:
1. The market is usually right. There's a reason current exchange rates are what they are, and it's because supply equals demand at that price.
2. The market can be irrational. Look at when USD/KRW went over 1500 in March 2008 - most people knew it would come down below 1200 again, but due to liquidity and other concerns it was higher than it "should have" been. Animal spirits are huge. If you have a good read on the "psychology" of the market, you may be able to make money. Look at gold now, it could keep going up to 1800 or it could collapse back down to 600 or below when people realize they don't have any use for the damn yellow stuff.
3. Multi-currency accounts are a great way for BANKS to make money. Trust me on this. They're not doing you any favors. Technically speaking, you're selling them a "put option" for way below market price. |
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depth
Joined: 01 Feb 2008
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| Posted: Wed Sep 21, 2011 5:06 am Post subject: |
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1 AUD = 1,178.47 KRW
so will it continue to get worse as the mining export booms on? |
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