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Won-dollar rate could hit 1,000 this year
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Yaya



Joined: 25 Feb 2003
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2011 8:26 pm    Post subject: Won-dollar rate could hit 1,000 this year Reply with quote

SEOUL, July 31 (Yonhap) -- The South Korean currency is expected to rise above the 1,000 won level against the U.S. dollar within this year amid the greenback's weakness stemming from the U.S. government debt crisis, market watchers said Sunday.

The won's expected appreciation is feared to erode exporters' profitability and put a damper on South Korea's exports by making them more expensive in overseas markets. South Korea, Asia's fourth-largest economy, relies on exports for more than 50 percent of its economic growth.

Analysts said there is a possibility that the Korean currency will appreciate above the 1,000 won mark within this year as U.S. politicians remain split over a debt-limit hike with the Aug. 2 deadline looming.

"The local currency could gain to the 1,000 won level against the greenback by the end of the year," said Huh In, an international finance analyst at the state-run Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP).

"There is even a possibility that the Korean currency will likely rise even higher."

The local currency closed at 1,054.5 won to the greenback, down 2.8 won from Thursday's close, as investors shunned risky assets. However, the South Korean won has appreciated about 8 percent to the dollar since January.

Hyundai Research Institute, a private economic think tank, offered a similar outlook.

"The local currency is expected to climb to the 1,020-1,030 won range to the greenback in the second half," said Lim Hee-jeong, a researcher at the institute. "But we can't rule out the possibility that it could rise above the 1,000 won level."

Nomura Securities Co. predicted the Korean currency to appreciate to the 1,020 won mark to the dollar in the fourth quarter of this year before rising as high as an average of 960 won next year.

With the Korean currency widely expected to gain strength against the dollar, foreign investors are snapping up South Korean government and corporate bonds, a brokerage house said.

As of Thursday, foreign holdings of listed and unlisted bonds reached a record 86.6 trillion won (US$82.2 billion), with overseas investors buying more than 3 trillion won worth of debts over the past month alone, according to Daewoo Securities Co.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2011/07/31/78/0200000000AEN20110731000600320F.HTML
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ThingsComeAround



Joined: 07 Nov 2008

PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2011 8:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Won't be cool unless the Euro and Yen follow suit Cool
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Koreadays



Joined: 20 May 2008

PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2011 10:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

when it hits 1000 BUY!
wait 3-4 years for another recession and when the won goes to 1500 again
SELL!!!

easy 50% you ever made..
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young_clinton



Joined: 09 Sep 2009

PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2011 10:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why 1000? It's going below a 1000.
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ThingsComeAround wrote:
Won't be cool unless the Euro and Yen follow suit Cool


My thoughts exactly. I'd like to see the won strenghten against more than just the US$
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rainism



Joined: 13 Apr 2011

PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Captain Corea wrote:
ThingsComeAround wrote:
Won't be cool unless the Euro and Yen follow suit Cool


My thoughts exactly. I'd like to see the won strenghten against more than just the US$


therein lies the rub. Since 2009 the maxim is for every 3% or all other currencies will strengthen vs the USD, the won will strengthen 1%
by the time the won hits 1000, all other currencies will be somewhere where the won equivalent would be around 900.

I was tremendously pissed off last year when the won was fluctuating around 1150..(with that brief spike above 1200 to 1250 again), because my analysis showed that had the won been trading roughly in range with equivalent currencies, its value should've been closer to 1050 or so.

Now it should probably be around 1000. but ever since the govt stopped interfering with the exchange rate late last year as inflation blew up in its face the won has made up some ground.


Last edited by rainism on Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:27 am; edited 1 time in total
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sojusucks



Joined: 31 May 2008

PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I took it on the chin when it was at 1600 so anything at 1000 will be greatly appreciated.
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Swampfox10mm



Joined: 24 Mar 2011

PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Will the gov't avoid playing with the won again this time around?
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rainism



Joined: 13 Apr 2011

PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Swampfox10mm wrote:
Will the gov't avoid playing with the won again this time around?


my guess is yes, because Samsung and Hyundai cannot be unhappy when you consider where the won is against all of their export competitors since 2007 (down at the very least 10%, typically closer to 25%, almost 50% vs yen)

the chaebols are sitting pretty, no matter the whining you may hear in the Korean press about the "strong won" as it inches toward 1000.

(and it will inch... much more slowly than you think)

Since the govt's "smoothing operations" (as they called it, laughably), Korean inflation has exploded and the govt has declared an "all out war" on it.

That was about 5 months ago. They're losing the war. Badly.
their suppression of the currency isn't the only reason, perhaps not even a decisive reason, but it's a CONTRIBUTING reason.


I suspect they won't interfere too much. As it is, they've instituted measures to ensure that the so called "hot money" won't pour into Korea and appreciate the won too rapidly.. They've made restrictions on kimchi bonds and are closely monitoring the banks FX trading (which regularly takes advantage of loopholes to produce wild swings in rate).

One COULD make the argument that the won was unusually strong in 2007, around 925-950\ because of capital flows (aka hot money). It should've probably been closer to 1000, which means at the moment the won is no longer a sick global joke (as it was in 2008,2009. 2010) , just somewhat undervalued.
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Milwaukiedave



Joined: 02 Oct 2004
Location: Goseong

PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just transferred 3.2 million a few days ago at about 1050 and got $3000. The bank here charged $18, my bank charged $8

At 1000 it would have been $3200
At 950 it would have been $3368
At 900 it would have been $3555
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Highwayman



Joined: 22 May 2011

PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2011 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Would the free trade deal (if ever ratified) have any long-term effect on Korea's currency manipulation regime?

The debt deal is done, but it seems pretty weak, and it's going to be less than 2 years before another one is needed.

Amerika, for all the supposed greatness of its Ivy League, is going down the toilet bowl of history.
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ZIFA



Joined: 23 Feb 2011
Location: Dici che il fiume..Trova la via al mare

PostPosted: Mon Aug 01, 2011 11:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Koreadays wrote:
when it hits 1000 BUY!
wait 3-4 years for another recession and when the won goes to 1500 again
SELL!!!

easy 50% you ever made..


Exactly.
And it can all be done easily -by switching funds to different currencies in your KEB account.
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rainism



Joined: 13 Apr 2011

PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 12:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Highwayman wrote:
Would the free trade deal (if ever ratified) have any long-term effect on Korea's currency manipulation regime?

The debt deal is done, but it seems pretty weak, and it's going to be less than 2 years before another one is needed.

Amerika, for all the supposed greatness of its Ivy League, is going down the toilet bowl of history.


you're beginning to think.

Now consider why the current administration has been pursuing every FTA agreement imaginable with whomever they can find, not just the US or the EU.

consider how due to Samsung and Hyundai, their products are no longer considered substandard worldwide and then consider the effect of the currency manipulation policy.

it's called ADVANTAGE KOREA.

(Korean goods will be cheaper in all those countries and the wares of those countries will be more expensive here)

I'm a bit surprised that during the "negotiations" for those things someone hasn't bluntly called the Koreans out for the crap they are pulling.
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Stan Rogers



Joined: 20 Aug 2010

PostPosted: Tue Aug 02, 2011 4:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll believe it when I see it.
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Highwayman



Joined: 22 May 2011

PostPosted: Wed Aug 03, 2011 6:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rainism wrote:
I'm a bit surprised that during the "negotiations" for those things someone hasn't bluntly called the Koreans out for the crap they are pulling.

So am I. Free trade has been a disaster for North America (excluding Mexico). And when Asia isn't stealing intellectual property outright, they're manipulating their currencies and sucking up all the manufacturing. I honestly don't see the upside for North America.
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