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comm
Joined: 22 Jun 2010
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 Posted: Sat Oct 08, 2011 3:47 pm Post subject: Paul wins Values Voter Straw Poll |
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DC Values Voter Summit: Ron Paul wins Straw Poll
EASTON, Md., October 8, 2011 � The crowds at the Values Voter Summit in Washington DC loved Congressman Ron Paul (R-Texas), the libertarian maverick, proving once again that he has the right stuff as far as conservatives are concerned.
Paul - 37%
Cain - 23%
Santorum - 16%
Perry - 8%
Romney - 4%
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Some media outlets are claiming that Paul's avid supporters who had already planned to vote for him diminished the value of the poll. Is that the case, or does Paul's strong conservative base (especially against Romney here) increase his momentum in the GOP race? |
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Unposter
Joined: 04 Jun 2006
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| Posted: Sat Oct 08, 2011 4:33 pm Post subject: |
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If I could only vote for those five candidates, I'd vote for Paul, too. But, sadly, I think it says more about the lack of credible candidates than it does with Paul.
All this will Christie run or won't he, is very symbolic at the discontent Republicans are feeling about their candidates so far.
And, I don't think it is just for 2012. The Republicans weren't happy with their candidates in 2008 either. McCain was a hold your nose and hope candidate. Romney would be more of the same. I don't think the Republicans want to go in another McCain -Romney direction but they can't find a candidate that really sparks them.
Paul can't win over evangelicals or big business types. And, if you can't get either of those groups, your chances of winning the Republican nomination is slim to none. I know Paul is seriously a Republican but I actually think he has a much better chance of being President running as a fiscally conservative Democrat. But, maybe, that is why I don't work in politics. |
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Sat Oct 08, 2011 4:42 pm Post subject: |
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| He's a cult candidate. Note that I'm using the word cult like in the sense of cult movies and not jonesboro. He has a strong core but very little casual support. That's why he does well in straw polls. Some one like Romney doesn't have a strong core, but lots of casual support. He doesn't share the same values as most republicans, which is a problem when you are running for the republican ticket. Straw poll results are not very good at predicting winners, so this won't do much for him. |
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comm
Joined: 22 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 10:50 am Post subject: |
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| Leon wrote: |
| Straw poll results are not very good at predicting winners, so this won't do much for him. |
But I get the idea that the entire point of a straw poll is to evaluate the strength of a candidate's base. It really couldn't be good for anything else, since a strong base will show up to see and support their candidate. The issue I see is that Ron Paul's wins are discounted because he already has a strong base, whereas the wins of others are praised. I don't think I have to do a formal study to conclude that the media praise increases broad support. And even when Paul does win a straw poll, the losers are celebrated for whatever base they could manage to pull together.
So for the 10-15% of voters who support Ron Paul (20-25 million Americans?) the fact that a Paul win is meaningless and a "anyone else" win is important makes the system seem rigged. |
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 3:44 pm Post subject: |
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| comm wrote: |
| Leon wrote: |
| Straw poll results are not very good at predicting winners, so this won't do much for him. |
But I get the idea that the entire point of a straw poll is to evaluate the strength of a candidate's base. It really couldn't be good for anything else, since a strong base will show up to see and support their candidate. The issue I see is that Ron Paul's wins are discounted because he already has a strong base, whereas the wins of others are praised. I don't think I have to do a formal study to conclude that the media praise increases broad support. And even when Paul does win a straw poll, the losers are celebrated for whatever base they could manage to pull together.
So for the 10-15% of voters who support Ron Paul (20-25 million Americans?) the fact that a Paul win is meaningless and a "anyone else" win is important makes the system seem rigged. |
The thing about it is that he has his base, but it hasn't grown much this cycle. The people who are going to be for him already are. The reports from the straw poll that I read said that his people bought one day tickets, showed up for his speech, voted and left. Ron Paul had no business winning a values voter straw poll, and Ron Pauls supporters had no business being there. That's why the media, or no one else cares. The real story about the value voters straw poll is who is going to win the evangelical vote. Ron Paul won't ever win even a small proportion of that vote, so that's why this is a meaningless win for him. I don't like the people at the value votes event and I don't like Ron Paul, so it's kind of funny that this makes them both look a bit foolish. It also makes Paul look a bit desperate, and it makes him easier to write off as a cult candidate when he wins things he has no business to win. I mean no matter how much you love Paul you can easily admit that the Values Voter summit attendents aren't his base. |
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comm
Joined: 22 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 4:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Leon wrote: |
The thing about it is that he has his base, but it hasn't grown much this cycle. The people who are going to be for him already are. The reports from the straw poll that I read said that his people bought one day tickets, showed up for his speech, voted and left. Ron Paul had no business winning a values voter straw poll, and Ron Pauls supporters had no business being there. |
That's the kind of reporting I'm talking about 
To be specific, the organizer complained about people only showing up for the Saturday portion of the Friday/Saturday event. The fact that some people still have jobs and couldn't make it on Friday is a lame excuse to ignore Paul's support. It's the constant pigeonholing of Paul and his supporters that keeps the base from growing!
As to the Values Voters themselves, is it an unwritten law that all politically active Christians vote to impose their beliefs on others through Federal legislation? I'm sure that Paul's stance against Roe v Wade (establishing a Federal precedent in favor of abortion rights) won him a lot of votes compared to Romney's flip-flopping on the issue. And it seems like Paul received a pretty positive response from his recent interview in Christianity Today. |
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 5:01 pm Post subject: |
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| comm wrote: |
| Leon wrote: |
The thing about it is that he has his base, but it hasn't grown much this cycle. The people who are going to be for him already are. The reports from the straw poll that I read said that his people bought one day tickets, showed up for his speech, voted and left. Ron Paul had no business winning a values voter straw poll, and Ron Pauls supporters had no business being there. |
That's the kind of reporting I'm talking about
To be specific, the organizer complained about people only showing up for the Saturday portion of the Friday/Saturday event. The fact that some people still have jobs and couldn't make it on Friday is a lame excuse to ignore Paul's support. It's the constant pigeonholing of Paul and his supporters that keeps the base from growing!
As to the Values Voters themselves, is it an unwritten law that all politically active Christians vote to impose their beliefs on others through Federal legislation? I'm sure that Paul's stance against Roe v Wade (establishing a Federal precedent in favor of abortion rights) won him a lot of votes compared to Romney's flip-flopping on the issue. And it seems like Paul received a pretty positive response from his recent interview in Christianity Today. |
If you believe the value voters summit attendees, known for being the most socially conservative wing of the party, truly will vote for Paul given his stance in regards to legalizing drugs, and countries like Iran, then I think that you're kidding yourself. Of course they didn't vote for Rommney, he's a mormon, so that's a bit of a silly comparison. |
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comm
Joined: 22 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 5:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Leon wrote: |
If you believe the value voters summit attendees, known for being the most socially conservative wing of the party, truly will vote for Paul given his stance in regards to legalizing drugs, and countries like Iran, then I think that you're kidding yourself. Of course they didn't vote for Rommney, he's a mormon, so that's a bit of a silly comparison. |
As you might interpret from the interview link, a lot of conservative Christians (led by the Tea Party) are taking a more local stance on moral issues than in recent years. Like the Republican Party of the past, they're seeing the Federal government as the enemy, even when they're in control of it.
You're right that they wouldn't vote for Romney, but they clearly didn't like what they saw from the "Gardasil Governor" Perry either. Assuming Mormonism was an issue, that explains Huntsman not even showing up. But I'm not sure who you would expect them to vote for. Bachmann's and Gingrich's campaigns have thoroughly imploded, leaving... Paul, Cain and Santorum.
Oh, and to clarify something you mentioned... Paul wouldn't "legalize drugs", he'd force the States to make and enforce those laws  |
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 5:47 pm Post subject: |
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| comm wrote: |
| Leon wrote: |
If you believe the value voters summit attendees, known for being the most socially conservative wing of the party, truly will vote for Paul given his stance in regards to legalizing drugs, and countries like Iran, then I think that you're kidding yourself. Of course they didn't vote for Rommney, he's a mormon, so that's a bit of a silly comparison. |
As you might interpret from the interview link, a lot of conservative Christians (led by the Tea Party) are taking a more local stance on moral issues than in recent years. Like the Republican Party of the past, they're seeing the Federal government as the enemy, even when they're in control of it.
You're right that they wouldn't vote for Romney, but they clearly didn't like what they saw from the "Gardasil Governor" Perry either. Assuming Mormonism was an issue, that explains Huntsman not even showing up. But I'm not sure who you would expect them to vote for. Bachmann's and Gingrich's campaigns have thoroughly imploded, leaving... Paul, Cain and Santorum.
Oh, and to clarify something you mentioned... Paul wouldn't "legalize drugs", he'd force the States to make and enforce those laws |
Which is why Cain's second place was far more significant than Paul's first. The straw poll was only 600 votes. In polls Paul is a non-contender, but Cain is showing life both in national polls and in straw polls. |
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comm
Joined: 22 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:01 pm Post subject: |
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| Leon wrote: |
Which is why Cain's second place was far more significant than Paul's first. The straw poll was only 600 votes. In polls Paul is a non-contender, but Cain is showing life both in national polls and in straw polls. |
I think you're picking up some wrong numbers here. The straw poll was just under 2,000 votes, 600 of those were people who could only be there for Saturday. Of course the irony is that the coverage of Cain's win of the Florida straw poll is what shot him into national recognition. And Paul is polling at 3rd in the critical primary state of New Hampshire. I'm not saying that that earns Paul any magical media entitlements, but it should prevent honest journalists from saying he isn't a serious candidate. It -should- make it clear that his wins are meaningful, even if some people don't want them to be. |
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john152
Joined: 26 May 2011
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| Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:16 pm Post subject: |
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One question on my mind for Paul supporters which is on the mind of many primary voters is "can he win in the general election?" or will he just be creamed like McCain was in 2008?
How can he win independents or even some democrats? Would people who only vote in the general election and don't do much research see him as too extreme to vote for?
Legalizing drugs.
Legalizing prostitution.
Eliminating the department of education. |
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:27 pm Post subject: |
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| comm wrote: |
| Leon wrote: |
Which is why Cain's second place was far more significant than Paul's first. The straw poll was only 600 votes. In polls Paul is a non-contender, but Cain is showing life both in national polls and in straw polls. |
I think you're picking up some wrong numbers here. The straw poll was just under 2,000 votes, 600 of those were people who could only be there for Saturday. Of course the irony is that the coverage of Cain's win of the Florida straw poll is what shot him into national recognition. And Paul is polling at 3rd in the critical primary state of New Hampshire. I'm not saying that that earns Paul any magical media entitlements, but it should prevent honest journalists from saying he isn't a serious candidate. It -should- make it clear that his wins are meaningful, even if some people don't want them to be. |
I guess I got the 600 number confused for the other statistic. Anyways, Cain backed up the straw poll win with strong showings in national polls. Paul polls in single digits nationally. He isn't a serious candidate. Neither is Cain really, but if he can ride out this popularity without screwing up he has more potential than Paul. Maybe he can translate it into a cable gig, or some kind of appointment. Straw polls are worthless, look at Bachman who won one in Iowa. |
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comm
Joined: 22 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 6:59 pm Post subject: |
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| john152 wrote: |
Legalizing drugs.
Legalizing prostitution.
Eliminating the department of education. |
Actually, Paul polls very well against Obama. In fact, both Paul and Romney match up at 1% behind Obama in Florida. Voters who've taken a close look see that Paul is for State regulation, rather than Federal regulation. So instead of drugs being legal, they would be the responsibility of the States. The cool part about that is that he wouldn't change a thing about prostitution. There IS NO Federal law against prostitution! It's all done by the States, just like how he wants drug enforcement to be. Some counties in Nevada allow prostitution, maybe some parts of California will allow marijuana... in both cases, it's the State's business under President Paul.
Ideally, Paul would make education a responsibility of the States as well. But Paul isn't campaigning against the Department of Education, ending it isn't a big goal of his campaign.
Paul is campaigning on:
Ending the wars that Obama claimed he would end.
Ending the Patriot Act that Obama claimed he would end.
Securing our border by closing many of the 900+ American military bases around the world and utilizing those intelligence and financial resources.
Ending the "moral hazard" created by banks privatizing gains and socializing losses.
^ And all of those positions are extremely popular with independents and Democrats, hence his high poll numbers VS Obama. Add to that his 30 years in Congress, of which I haven't seen any flip-flopping... and you've got a pretty solid candidate for independents. |
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Captain Corea
Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul
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| Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 7:35 pm Post subject: |
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| As a non-American, I'd imagine Paul doing well in the general election. Even though he has tons of political experience, he can really come at this as an outsider that echoes a frustration in the American populace. |
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Leon
Joined: 31 May 2010
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| Posted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 8:40 pm Post subject: |
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| Captain Corea wrote: |
| As a non-American, I'd imagine Paul doing well in the general election. Even though he has tons of political experience, he can really come at this as an outsider that echoes a frustration in the American populace. |
He can, to an extent. But he has very unpopular positions. He gets tons of publicity, he has a dedicated base, he has never shown double digits in a national poll. His belief in the out there Austrian school of economics is electoral posion in a national election, not to mention would be terrible for this country should he be eleceted. Last time he ran for president he only got .5% of the entire vote, in 1988. Why do people waste their time with this guy. |
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