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The Big Pivot
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 4:33 pm    Post subject: Re: ... Reply with quote

Nowhere Man wrote:

China has recently purchased a large chunk of Africa without the colonial baggage of the West. China doesn't have legions of enemies around the world because China, in its "backward" days, wasn't galumphing about the world sticking its fingers in hornet's nests.


Did you read the article? Almost all the Asian powers are either opposed to China or hedging against it. Maybe Russia, North Korea, and Pakistan are the exceptions.
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radcon



Joined: 23 May 2011

PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 4:51 pm    Post subject: Re: ... Reply with quote

Kuros wrote:
Nowhere Man wrote:

China has recently purchased a large chunk of Africa without the colonial baggage of the West. China doesn't have legions of enemies around the world because China, in its "backward" days, wasn't galumphing about the world sticking its fingers in hornet's nests.


Did you read the article? Almost all the Asian powers are either opposed to China or hedging against it. Maybe Russia, North Korea, and Pakistan are the exceptions.


True China doesn't have the colonial baggage and the locals don't hate the Chinese government. Instead Chinese move into areas and the locals come to hate the Chinese at an organic, person to person level.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2011 7:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Russia loathes the Chinese. If they could win they would fight them right now. In 72 they came close to all out war. Soviets moved nuclear weapons east after Mao attacked Soviet Units in Siberia. Lets see skirmish with India in the 60's,had 300,000 troops in Vietnam during the civil war. later fought a serious little war with the Vietmanese. Seized Tibet, shelled and attacked Taiwan for over 20 years, and of course the Korean war. Yeah China is a peaceful paradise. Right now they are bullying the Phillipines and Japan.
Japan is rapidly building up its military. An increased U.S. presence may be a good thing. Australia has increasingly become involved in Asia and its trade with China is very important. keeping the Southern sea lanes open is very important
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2011 8:37 pm    Post subject: Re: ... Reply with quote

[quote="Nowhere Man"]
Quote:
An unanswered question is whether you find anything hyperbolic about his evidence of who China has cheesed off? For a mag like FP, I find his list almost tabloid in nature.... The new theater is economics, where they are winning. The more dangerous aspect is China's rise to superpower status and the example on display....


If you have been paying attention to events in Asia over the last couple of years, you might not think that it is just this one article by this one writer. There has been growing concern all over the region. Pretty much all of China's neighbors are having trouble with her in one way or another. Recently the Chinese gov't has been using nationalism to rally the people and that is bothersome to a lot of people who have to live next door.

I don't have a doubt that the general idea of the Great Pivot was right. I do have reservations about how it was done, in particular the troops in Australia. Just the other day, Brezhinsky said he questioned the wisdom of poking a finger in the Chinese eye and wondered about their response.

I disagree that economics is the 'new theater'. Economics has always been the main theater. It's where the money comes from to field a military.

What I'm concerned about is that super-patriots will drum up another yellow peril boogeyman to justify a military build-up at the cost of reforms at home, in their grand tradition of fearmongering. We already spend 50% of the world's defense budget. Somebody once remarked that Prussia was an army that happened to have a country attached to it. I don't want the same for the US. Ancient Sparta was much the same.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would fear the super patriots of Japan and Russia more and of course India. China keeps pushing at India over the border dispute and I think there is a good chance of military action on that front in the next ten years . China's super nationalism mixed with the ethnic superiority message is similar to Nazi Germany's.

I agree with you about the U.S defense budget. Over militarization is a threat to the U.s. economy and also makes it too easy for the U.S. to rely on muscle instead of brains in situation which damages its prestige.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Sun Dec 04, 2011 7:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

rollo wrote:
China's super nationalism mixed with the ethnic superiority message is similar to Nazi Germany's.


You are talking about many of the people, not the central gov't. Zhongnanhai works to undermine the nascent militant nationalism, but of course it can't all the time (look at the South Sea disputes). Meanwhile, the gov't does at least pay lip service to ethnic minorities: China has a very similar affirmative action system for minorities entering university as the United States does.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2011 2:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I would fear the super patriots of Japan and Russia more and of course India.


I pretty much fear everyone's super-patriots. They are a problem for everyone.

Actually, I dislike the term super-patriot. When I was coming up, a patriot loved his country; a nationalist loved his country to the point of killing the ferriners to prove how much he loved his country.

However, the point of this part of the thread is that the Chinese government has been hyping nationalism for their political benefit. This is dangerous. It's a big problem when any government deliberately stirs up hostile feelings against 'the other'.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Mon Dec 05, 2011 4:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chinese demographics are scary. the 20 million unmarried young males. quite a bit has been written about this. Not wanting to get into sociology but that is a lot of testosterone and cannon fodder.

They may well have some kind of affirmative action for minorities in China but maybe the Uighars, the Tibetans and others don'.t think so much of the program. Basically the rule is if your not Han don'.t come knocking.

The U.S is still the balance in Asia. This might not last for long. I really do not see how China and India can co-exist, with dwindling resources, and Chinese provocation it is almost inevitable that there will be some sort of military conflict. They keep bullying and bullying and no one has called them on it YET! Japan has been pushed about as far as they will go I think. if China underestimates the Japanese they could get a very rude awakening.

The U.S Focusing on the region is a good signal to countries that they do not have to fear standing up to China alone. This could make Beijing reevaluate their conduct.
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Nowhere Man



Joined: 08 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 3:42 am    Post subject: ... Reply with quote

Quote:
Did you read the article? Almost all the Asian powers are either opposed to China or hedging against it. Maybe Russia, North Korea, and Pakistan are the exceptions.


You mean the article that cites Japan's furor over the Cheonan? I already talked about this. Thanks for not reading.

What happened to the "Great China Hype Thread"? Remember how it was all just hype? Kuros and Dr. Doom strongly suggested that China was gonna get KO'd by its own housing bubble, no?

Maybe this should be the Great China Hype Thread II-just when you thought it was safe...

So, we've gone from China's imminent flailure to Rollo predicting war with India, Russia, and single women everywhere.

We have Yata talking up hypernationalism in a country of 1.5 billion people.

But, I think I'm getting ahead of myself.

Let's presume that most of you are living in the ROK as of now.

I ask you this:

1) How often do you hear Koreans talk about a threat from China as compared to Tokdo? Are Koreans more concerned with China or Tokdo?

2) How is the Chinese hagwon business doing nowadays? Are furious Koreans refusing to study Chinese, or are they lining up in greater numbers than ever to do so?

Political tensions are not uncommon between the three, but economic ties are solid. C'mon. Koreans aren't exactly in love with the US, but we remain valuable trade partners. Do Koreans have more concrete reasons to hate the Chinese or the US?

The truth (or at least my version of things) is as follows:

1) China is undergoing vast internal changes. The housing bubble is real, but it is not the same as one in the US. It has united an incredible mass of people, but they are not all matching in lock-step to some totalitarian vision.

2) I repeat, while massively winning economically, what interest does China have in war with India, Russia, or anybody? They pretty much trade with everyone, so what advantage does military hostility give them. It's like the classic metaphor of bulls on a bluff. Why run down and screw one when you can walk down and have the herd?

3) Japan is losing its position as the #1 Asian entity. In so doing, it is losing face. I bet they don't like that, and I bet Koreans don't like that they're not taking over. However, globally, they were always second dog to the USA. If China is moving up while the US flounders, it's a) not quite as bad and b) not time to take your ball and go home. Even with a ROK-US FTA, that doesn't mean that China, Korea, and Japan can't overcome history and ally in a stronger wiser (post-europe) alliance.
Suppose Mexico just suddenly exploded on steroids to become an economic powerhouse. Would the US be sitting around, going "Oh noes, Mexicoes", or figuring out how they can turn such a change to their advantage.

4) Consider all the HYPE in this thread about China's military, then consider how the US behaves on a daily basis. In light of this, the heeby-jeebies expressed here about China are kind of a joke, are they not? You can quote me on this: the chances of China going to war with either Russia or India are the same as Trinidad and Tobago invading the Bahamas. The chances of China drone-striking someone close to home are far greater, ergo we should balance China by balancing ourselves.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 2:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Really!! You ! think!the map published by the P.L.A. which show vast chunks of territory claimed by India as being Chinese, and the movement of Chinese troops to that border region is all peaceful and friendly. Golly gee. I suppose the Chinese warships buzzing and threatening Japanese shipping is just playful mischief.

You have the economy and the foreign policy confused. In fact as the Chinese economy contracts many think they are more dangerous.
Today in fact Hu told the navy to get ready to fight!!

U.S. actions in Afghanistan have nothing to do with Chinese aggression in Asia. The U.s. is being invited to take a more active role in the region.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Wed Dec 07, 2011 3:31 pm    Post subject: Re: ... Reply with quote

Nowhere Man wrote:
Quote:
Did you read the article? Almost all the Asian powers are either opposed to China or hedging against it. Maybe Russia, North Korea, and Pakistan are the exceptions.


You mean the article that cites Japan's furor over the Cheonan? I already talked about this. Thanks for not reading.

What happened to the "Great China Hype Thread"? Remember how it was all just hype? Kuros and Dr. Doom strongly suggested that China was gonna get KO'd by its own housing bubble, no?


No, no. The Great China Hype Thread was not centered around the housing bubble discussion, although it was relevant. These are the first words from that thread:

Quote:

Here it is, a thread to place all China Hype articles. I more than suspect these kinds of articles, almost all of which come from Westerners, embarrass Chinese with their outrageous predictions of success.

-----------------------

Here's $123,000,000,000, as in China's GDP will be $123 trillion by 2040, an article destined to go down in infamy like Dow 36,000:

Quote:
In 2040, the Chinese economy will reach $123 trillion, or nearly three times the economic output of the entire globe in 2000. China's per capita income will hit $85,000, more than double the forecast for the European Union, and also much higher than that of India and Japan. In other words, the average Chinese megacity dweller will be living twice as well as the average Frenchman when China goes from a poor country in 2000 to a superrich country in 2040.


Thanks for not reading.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Thu Dec 08, 2011 2:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

123 trillion amazing. what genius came up with that. China has so many problems that it will probably never advance much beyond what they have already achieved. which is an economy of about 4.5 trillion dollars. Aging, over population, loss of farm land, water problems. inequality between rich and poor. Hu said to George W. Bush while they were discussing some military issue. " Many days all that concerns me it the 200 million who still live in poverty and what to do about it". Their problems are massive. As much as I criticize their leader ship , I have to say that with the tremendous leap they have made it is a wonder that they are not in a worse shape. They went from an agraian, society average income 40 yUAN A MONTH With carts pulled by cows on the streets of Beijing to the second largest economy in the world. in 30 years. The problems are one of the reasons they are so aggressive, they need space and resources and are committed to getting them
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Nowhere Man



Joined: 08 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Tue Dec 13, 2011 7:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
No, no. The Great China Hype Thread was not centered around the housing bubble discussion, although it was relevant. These are the first words from that thread:


I didn't say it was "centered around" the housing bubble, did I? That is what talk gravitated to, didn't it?

Weak.

But Rollo! You be on a roll!

It's a shame we don't have virtual currency to bet, but how about this:

If Chinese troops exchange fire with troops from another country in the next calendar year, I will, in shame, not post here for one month.

If, on the other hand, your predicted military aggression does not occur, you will do the same.

Fair enough?
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Thu Dec 15, 2011 2:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Do border guards count. Chinese border guards shot at nepalese troops about two months ago.

Lets see, 50,s China invades Tibet, gets involved in the Korean conflict. 60's just a few flareups with India, one real shooting match. Shelled Taiwan territory every day for thirty years. Oh and 300,000 Chinese troops in Vietnam. 70's big shoot-em-up with Russia several times. nasty little border conflict with Vietnam. entered and seized east Turkamenstan.

Peaceful rise my ass!!

The housing bubble; it's far far worse than the U.
S.'s was . In Shangahi 40% of growth GDP was based on housing. Rent for a dump ofa place in Shanghai is about $2000 a month. In a city where average wages about $4000 a year. Chinese live with parents or ten to a single room with a tiny bathroom. It is unsustainable!!
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Captain Corea



Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Location: Seoul

PostPosted: Thu Dec 15, 2011 4:09 am    Post subject: Re: ... Reply with quote

Nowhere Man wrote:

I ask you this:

1) How often do you hear Koreans talk about a threat from China as compared to Tokdo? Are Koreans more concerned with China or Tokdo?


I hear Koreans mention China and their concerns about it far more than almost any other nation. The only country that comes up more in conversation is the US.
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