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Butterfly
Joined: 02 Mar 2003
Location: Kuwait
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 Posted: Mon Dec 26, 2011 12:00 am Post subject: |
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If the Arab / Russian / Rest-of-the-world Spring is anything to go by, I would suspect one of two outcomes in the very near future in North Korea � either it remains exactly the same (possibly slightly worse) or it completely collapses in a matter of days. Those speculating on a steady, gradual opening up must surely be Korea-expats applying a bit of wishful thinking. North Koreans have suffered too much and too long to accept appeasement by the state, if they see a window to get things like food and fairness, they will surely take it.
I think you should be ready for very big and very quick change, if you're living in South Korea. |
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weso1
Joined: 26 Aug 2010
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| Posted: Mon Dec 26, 2011 2:17 am Post subject: |
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| Butterfly wrote: |
If the Arab / Russian / Rest-of-the-world Spring is anything to go by, I would suspect one of two outcomes in the very near future in North Korea � either it remains exactly the same (possibly slightly worse) or it completely collapses in a matter of days. Those speculating on a steady, gradual opening up must surely be Korea-expats applying a bit of wishful thinking. North Koreans have suffered too much and too long to accept appeasement by the state, if they see a window to get things like food and fairness, they will surely take it.
I think you should be ready for very big and very quick change, if you're living in South Korea. |
Your second option is completely ridiculous. The protests and demonstrations in the other countries are open, tolerated to an extent, and have teeth because people are allowed to organize and get their hands on weapons if they need.
None of that is the case up North. I think it's safe to say most North Koreans aren't even aware of the uprisings around the world. Even if they decided to do something, how would they proceed? Cell phones and the internet are largely absent. Only a very select minority of the population in Pyongyang have access to the kind of organizing tools these other movements are using.
Secondly, North Koreans have no access to weaponry. Maybe there might be a rogue General that has a loyal following that might get his men to fight other soldiers, but as far as civilians rising up - impossible. They have been deprived and kept on such a short leash for so long, they lack any of the resources to bring about any kind of formidable opposition.
A slow, gradual, opening up is inevitable. Mainly because it's what China wants. China runs that country now. The Generals, the new leader, the uncle, are all just puppets. China wants peace and stability. China wants to focus on growing their own economy and that can't happen with North Korean constantly making waves. They have control of things now and they're not letting go.
Thinking things are going to turn out like what the rest of the world has seen this year is an incredibly uneducated prediction. I think it's best to do some real research on the issue before you give out end of the world prophecies like that. |
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comm
Joined: 22 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Mon Dec 26, 2011 2:23 am Post subject: |
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| weso1 wrote: |
A slow, gradual, opening up is inevitable. Mainly because it's what China wants. China runs that country now. The Generals, the new leader, the uncle, are all just puppets. China wants peace and stability. China wants to focus on growing their own economy and that can't happen with North Korean constantly making waves. They have control of things now and they're not letting go.
Thinking things are going to turn out like what the rest of the world has seen this year is an incredibly uneducated prediction. I think it's best to do some real research on the issue before you give out end of the world prophecies like that. |
And most importantly, China doesn't want either a huge refugee crisis on their border or a military conflict that gives the U.S. an excuse to expand its military power in the region. |
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Butterfly
Joined: 02 Mar 2003
Location: Kuwait
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| Posted: Mon Dec 26, 2011 5:18 am Post subject: |
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| weso1 wrote: |
| Butterfly wrote: |
If the Arab / Russian / Rest-of-the-world Spring is anything to go by, I would suspect one of two outcomes in the very near future in North Korea � either it remains exactly the same (possibly slightly worse) or it completely collapses in a matter of days. Those speculating on a steady, gradual opening up must surely be Korea-expats applying a bit of wishful thinking. North Koreans have suffered too much and too long to accept appeasement by the state, if they see a window to get things like food and fairness, they will surely take it.
I think you should be ready for very big and very quick change, if you're living in South Korea. |
Your second option is completely ridiculous. The protests and demonstrations in the other countries are open, tolerated to an extent, and have teeth because people are allowed to organize and get their hands on weapons if they need. |
Libya? Syria? Egypt? Tunisia? Iran? Open and tolerated demonstrations?
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| None of that is the case up North. I think it's safe to say most North Koreans aren't even aware of the uprisings around the world. Even if they decided to do something, how would they proceed? Cell phones and the internet are largely absent. Only a very select minority of the population in Pyongyang have access to the kind of organizing tools these other movements are using. |
But as I can remember, most people thought Libyans were primarily loyal to Ghaddaffi. I didn't say things will change, I think actually the regime will get worse, because the tiniest inkling of change will have people leaving the country in their hundreds of thousands.
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| Secondly, North Koreans have no access to weaponry. |
Neither did Syrians earlier in the year. Anyway, I didn't say war, I would predict a huge exodus in search of food. Massive.
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| Thinking things are going to turn out like what the rest of the world has seen this year is an incredibly uneducated prediction. I think it's best to do some real research on the issue before you give out end of the world prophecies like that. |
No, I think you're burying your head in the sand about the 20+ million starving people north of the border. Would my having lived in Korea for six years, followed by living in Libya through the initial stages of a revolution not qualify me as having done some 'research'?
As I say, my belief is the survival of the regime hinges on tightening the screws, because to loosen them is going to cause an absolute exodus in every direction.
You and I both know that nobody knows what is really going on north of the border (therefore nobody has the right to dismiss anyone else's ideas as ridiculous on NK), but we do know how desperate humans react when there is a glimmer of hope of change. We've seen it all year. |
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silkhighway
Joined: 24 Oct 2010
Location: Canada
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| Posted: Mon Dec 26, 2011 8:41 am Post subject: |
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I tend to agree with Butterfly on this one. Yes, it's NK, absolutely nobody really knows what's going on, but in my prediction it's either going to be more of the same or when change does happen, it will come swiftly and radically.
Chinese-style reforms won't work in the long-term. China was party-controlled and Deng Xiaoping could come out and say that some mistakes were made and the pendulum had swung too far under Mao's cultural revolution. Even then, despite trying to be gentle about it ("Mao was 70% right, 30% bad") Mao's legacy was denigrated. The cult of personality and control under Mao's Red China is nothing compared to the Kim's in North Korea. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Mon Dec 26, 2011 10:03 am Post subject: |
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| Here's the massive difference between North Korea and all the Arab countries: North Koreans are a lot poorer and malnourished. It's on another level of poverty. Lot harder to protest and revolt when you're barely living. |
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Butterfly
Joined: 02 Mar 2003
Location: Kuwait
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| Posted: Mon Dec 26, 2011 6:39 pm Post subject: |
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| bucheon bum wrote: |
| Here's the massive difference between North Korea and all the Arab countries: North Koreans are a lot poorer and malnourished. It's on another level of poverty. Lot harder to protest and revolt when you're barely living. |
Yes, but we have seen in Somalia this year, people willing to walk for days on end in search of food, risking death from the elements as well as recriminations from Al Shabab. I don't think there will be a revolution in NK (though nobody knows actually), but I am speculating on the possibility that if the government loosens the reins out even slightly, there will be an exodus on the scale that the world has rarely seen. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Mon Dec 26, 2011 10:15 pm Post subject: |
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| Butterfly wrote: |
| bucheon bum wrote: |
| Here's the massive difference between North Korea and all the Arab countries: North Koreans are a lot poorer and malnourished. It's on another level of poverty. Lot harder to protest and revolt when you're barely living. |
Yes, but we have seen in Somalia this year, people willing to walk for days on end in search of food, risking death from the elements as well as recriminations from Al Shabab. I don't think there will be a revolution in NK (though nobody knows actually), but I am speculating on the possibility that if the government loosens the reins out even slightly, there will be an exodus on the scale that the world has rarely seen. |
Ah, an exodus. That I don't disagree with, although I don't think the North Korean army would be shy in killing those trying to flee into China. |
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