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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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 Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 7:49 pm Post subject: |
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| Romney takes Polk. Ron Paul's campaign hasn't died, but its mortally wounded. |
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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| Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 7:52 pm Post subject: |
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| Ron Paul has just clinched it in Iowa- 3rd place! |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 7:53 pm Post subject: |
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| 87.5% of the vote in, santorum is still up and Paul is down by 2%. Doesn't look like RP will win (but still might come in 2nd). |
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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| Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 7:59 pm Post subject: |
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| bucheon bum wrote: |
| 87.5% of the vote in, santorum is still up and Paul is down by 2%. Doesn't look like RP will win (but still might come in 2nd). |
I'll bet you $10,000 that RP finishes third in Iowa (the state where he has his strongest organization.)
I think that one of Paul's main political functions in this race will be to raise funds for Newt Gingrich by dint of his "dangerous" foreign policy.
Last edited by Rteacher on Tue Jan 03, 2012 8:39 pm; edited 4 times in total |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 8:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Rteacher wrote: |
| bucheon bum wrote: |
| 87.5% of the vote in, santorum is still up and Paul is down by 2%. Doesn't look like RP will win (but still might come in 2nd). |
I'll bet you $10,000 that RP finishes third in Iowa (the state where he has his strongest organization.) |
Ha, yeah right. Santorum and Romney have the first two clinched. Santorum has no shot in NH, but he might pull something off in South Carolina. |
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weso1
Joined: 26 Aug 2010
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| Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 8:44 pm Post subject: |
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Suicide watch for comm and Kuros a third place really takes the wind out of Paul campaign. 
He'll get crushed in NH, wont place anywhere in SC, FL might be his last shot.
Outside of that, the Paul campaign is dead.
Now, will he go for the Libertarian ticket? |
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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| Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 8:54 pm Post subject: |
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Based on his speech tonight (and Chris Matthews' analysis of it), I think that wily Newt Gingrich will try to capitalize on Ron Paul's "dangerous" foreign policy to raise big money for his own fear-mongering campaign.
I think a video of Gingrich's speech can be found somewhere here ...
http://inagist.com/search?q=Newt%20Gingrich
Last edited by Rteacher on Tue Jan 03, 2012 9:10 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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comm
Joined: 22 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 9:05 pm Post subject: |
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| Rteacher wrote: |
I'll bet you $10,000 that RP finishes third in Iowa (the state where he has his strongest organization.) |
I think you've already missed the Intrade boat on that one, Romney.
This site has some interesting data on the demographics of the event. A full 68% of participants were 45 or older, which I think is the main cause of Paul's lower-than-expected results. I'm pretty stunned that Iowa broke for Santorum so quickly, but I don't know if he'll be able to play well outside of that bastion of social conservatism... especially once his coming "flavor of the month" image is destroyed in the run up to South Carolina on the 21st.
But clearly this is bad for Gingrich. Just because he already said that he wasn't going to win doesn't make this hurt his campaign any less. The money and FoTM support that goes to Santorum will hurt Gingrich more than anyone else.
So where does it go from here?
I'm wondering if Weso1's opinion on insurmountable divisions in the GOP is accurate. I don't see social conservatives voting for Romney, neoconservatives voting for Paul, or the establishment GOP voting for Santorum... Still, a win in both Iowa and New Hampshire would make Romney a good buy on Intrade, if that $10k is burning a hole in your pocket, lol.
| weso1 wrote: |
Suicide watch for comm and Kuros a third place really takes the wind out of Paul campaign.
He'll get crushed in NH, wont place anywhere in SC, FL might be his last shot.
Outside of that, the Paul campaign is dead.
Now, will he go for the Libertarian ticket? |
I wouldn't have bothered with Paul in the first place if I weren't such an optimist 
As the field narrows, Romney will have a tougher and tougher time winning with 25%-30% of the vote. Also, I still think a 2nd in NH is very doable for Paul, depending on how damning the ad campaign against Santorum is in the next week. And after all, 3rd in Iowa still better than McCain's 4th place in 2008  |
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Rteacher
Joined: 23 May 2005
Location: Western MA, USA
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 9:20 pm Post subject: |
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| If I were one of Obama's boosters (and I'm not), I'd be reasonably happy right about now. Santorum is going nowhere and Romney picked up a victory in a challenging state for him. As he moves to his backyard in NH, he can feel assured he'll have two victories before he has to descend into SC. A Romney nomination means four more years of Obama. |
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Kuros
Joined: 27 Apr 2004
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| Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 10:04 pm Post subject: |
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Can anyone tell me how many delegates Romney, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich, and Perry won?
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weso1
Joined: 26 Aug 2010
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| Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 10:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
| If I were one of Obama's boosters (and I'm not), I'd be reasonably happy right about now. Santorum is going nowhere and Romney picked up a victory in a challenging state for him. As he moves to his backyard in NH, he can feel assured he'll have two victories before he has to descend into SC. A Romney nomination means four more years of Obama. |
Well, I am an Obama booster and I can say, we've always prepared to fight Romney, but he's really the last guy we wanted to go up against.
Any other candidate, yes including Paul, would have meant Obama could stroll to another term. Romney is the only one that could give him a fight in November. He could win some moderates and independents if he stays on message of "jobs" and "economy."
Though there is a way to beat him. Paint him as a classic greasy oily politician that says whatever he needs to get elected, then flip flops on every stance he took. The "1%" doesn't hurt either. Still, I'm sure liberals across the country hope Santorum can somehow pull this off. Maybe a Gingrich resurrection?
Anyway, back to Iowa. Looks like Perry is out. He said he's going back to Texas to "reassess" his campaign. Which is code for "I'm done." You don't stop campaigning, reassess, and then come back and say "on second though, I'm still in this thing." If you doubt it, see Herman Cain.
Now the question is, who does he endorse? How about Bachmann? She seems to be at the end of her run. No more money. No real organization out side of Iowa. I expect both of them to bow out pretty soon.
I think Bachmann throws support behind Romney. She never went after him too hard in the debates because word was there was an "understanding" between the two campaigns that she'd be near the top of the short list for Romney's VP picks. He does need social conservative help, but am I the only one that sees a Romney/Bachmann ticket as being virtually the exact same thing as McCain/Palin?
Perry still has money. So whoever he endorses, get a large amount of that money. Romney doesn't need money and Mitt beat him up pretty hard in the debates. There are a lot of Bushies on the Romney team and there is no love loss between the Perry camp and the Bush camp. He could throw money and man power behind Santorum (both of which he desperately needs) and make Mitt fight it out for months to come. |
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comm
Joined: 22 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 11:38 pm Post subject: |
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| Kuros wrote: |
Can anyone tell me how many delegates Romney, Santorum, Paul, Gingrich, and Perry won?
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6, 6, 6, 4, 3
| weso1 wrote: |
| Any other candidate, yes including Paul, would have meant Obama could stroll to another term. Romney is the only one that could give him a fight in November. He could win some moderates and independents if he stays on message of "jobs" and "economy." |
Disagree.
The policy failures and lies of the Obama administration are at the forefront now, but Obama would debate the pants off of Romney. Their policies are similar, their inconsistency is similar, but Obama is a far better speaker/debater. The same package would be on both sides of the stage, but Obama's wrapping would be better polished. I still think New Hampshire will be Romney, Paul, Huntsman... But with Santorum and Gingrich vying for 4th.
I don't see Santorum succeeding past Iowa, or Hunstman past New Hampshire, or Gingrich pulling himself back together at all. With Perry and Bachmann likely out, I think Paul is in a relatively good position going forward. |
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weso1
Joined: 26 Aug 2010
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| Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 4:53 am Post subject: |
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| My favorite part of the night though: when the active duty Army corporal tried to talk about why he supports Ron Paul, and then the feed gets cut. Buahaha! Anderson Cooper said that will make for a lot of conspiracy talk on the internet later. But I gotta admit, the first thing that ran across my mind was "damn, somebody really didn't want him to say what he was about to say." It probably was just a technical glitch, but man, all night they were flawless. No glitches or dropped feeds or technical mishaps all night, except right then. Hmm, seems fishy to me |
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weso1
Joined: 26 Aug 2010
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| Posted: Wed Jan 04, 2012 5:07 am Post subject: |
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2 more notes on Iowa:
- Romney got 30,021 votes in 2008, 6 MORE than last night! He hasn't moved a bit. The only difference in last night and '08, was that social conservative crowd was broken up over a handful of candidates instead of coalescing around Huckabee. Romney hasn't won over any new conservative voters. I wish we could bypass NH and just go to SC, that is going to be fun to watch!
- Last night, a little more than 122,000 registered Republicans showed up to vote in a hotly contested primary....... 250,000 Democrats showed up to caucus for President Obama, who faced no primary challenger. |
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