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Economists see growth picking up in new year
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World Traveler



Joined: 29 May 2009

PostPosted: Tue Dec 27, 2011 8:59 am    Post subject: Economists see growth picking up in new year Reply with quote

Quote:
The year is ending on an upswing. The economy has generated at least 100,000 new jobs for five months in a row � the longest such streak since 2006.

The number of people applying for unemployment benefits has dropped to the lowest level since April 2008. The trend suggests that layoffs have all but stopped and hiring could pick up.

And the economy avoided a setback when President Barack Obama signed legislation Friday extending a Social Security tax cut that was to expire at year's end. But Congress could agree only on a two-month extension.

The economists surveyed Dec. 14-20 expect the country to create 177,000 jobs a month through Election Day 2012. That would be up from an average 132,000 jobs a month so far in 2011.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45791407/ns/business-eye_on_the_economy/#.Tvn3i3qVqVQ

Quote:
If Europe can stabilize its economies, the U.S. stock markets would rally sharply, economists say, and prospects for U.S. economic growth would brighten.

"Europe appears to be the only real impediment to keeping this recovery from happening," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economics.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Tue Dec 27, 2011 2:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lots of if's but yeah there seems to be improvement is jobs and lending. Finally starting to regain footing since the 2008 disaster. Down cycles like this take a long time to recover from If Europe will do some little things and actually begin to reform there is modest hope for a very good 2013.
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Unposter



Joined: 04 Jun 2006

PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2011 12:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd say Europe is a mighty big if. In fact, I think it is not going to happen, at least in the short term. We've been having a jobless recovery for some time now. I wouldn't expect that to change anytime soon, certainly not with well-paying jobs at least. The best way to go forward is to just accept that this is the new normal. We've recovered and this is what "recovery" looks like.

At least not short of something radical such as a complete overhaul of the tax system which I wouldn't expect.
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Julius



Joined: 27 Jul 2006

PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2011 4:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unposter wrote:
We've been having a jobless recovery for some time now. I wouldn't expect that to change anytime soon


Conversely, korea creates a whole load of uneccesary jobs and work.

Look around you- all those extra hands wearing white gloves and directing traffic, where to park, idle store attendants...etc etc. They always seem to have twice as much staff as reuired, and half of them are standing around doing nothing.

maybe thats the strength of the Korean economy. It keeps everyone employed and therefore spending.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2011 7:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

^
I wonder about that, too.

Once upon a time a Korean friend asked me about 'efficiency'. I didn't give a very good answer.

Is it really efficient to lay off an unskilled worker and let him/her beg on the streets, or is it more efficient to hand out scarves and sun hats and let the old ladies pull weeds on the road-side and therefore have some spending money?

Economic theory that pays no attention to how actual, real people live has little to do with governing, where you are responsible for the actual, real lives of actual, real people.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2011 10:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
^
I wonder about that, too.

Once upon a time a Korean friend asked me about 'efficiency'. I didn't give a very good answer.

Is it really efficient to lay off an unskilled worker and let him/her beg on the streets, or is it more efficient to hand out scarves and sun hats and let the old ladies pull weeds on the road-side and therefore have some spending money?

Economic theory that pays no attention to how actual, real people live has little to do with governing, where you are responsible for the actual, real lives of actual, real people.


The heart of economic growth lies in productivity.

A lot of the economic waste of the past few years has come from cost-cutting; yet not the cost-cutting directed at attaining true efficiency, but cost-cutting that yields short-term gains at the expense of long-term gains. A lot of the recent shrunken productivity comes from corporate management aimed at the next quarter, rather than the next decade.

Keynes infamously advocated that the government, in a depression, bury objects in the earth so that people might be employed in digging them up. No economic advice has been more ignorant about how actual, real people live. Indeed, Austrian economics is premised upon the inherent fallibility of any economic theory that has a foundation other than the individual or household (for the root of economics is merely "the rule of the home").

There is plenty of room for both productivity growth and employment outside of the waste being flirted with here; creating busy work is poor economic policy, no matter what the unemployment rate. There's always legitimate work to be done, and waste and corruption are unavoidable anyway; so why work to create it?
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 4:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

^
That's all purely in the abstract.

Drive down any highway in Korea in the summer and you will see squads of ten or so older women in their 50's and 60's, covered up with sun hats, scarves, and long sleeve shirts squatting in the median pulling weeds. It would would be 'efficient' to buy one lawn mower and put those women out of work. Given the number of highways in this country, there must be thousands of these women putting food on their table doing this kind of grunt work.

Replace them with mowers and about the only thing left for these women of this age and skill set, is to buy boxes of fruits and vegetables and go into competition with the thousands of old women already doing that on every other street corner.

While efficiency in the long term is a worthy goal, I'd say that short/long term is a relative concept. Over decades, efficiency is good where an educated work force trained to use the most current technology available can be created. In the real world, it looks to me like Korea has wisely chosen the practical solution, since there are no other jobs for those thousands of workers and there is no real safety net for them to fall back on.

I am also reminded of the Amish. They have rejected much of modern technology and manage live decent productive lives. It isn't the kind of life everyone wants, but what is so enviable about modern lives in a consumer economy where many people openly admit they are unhappy in the rat race?

Humans are not unfeeling machines to be pushed, pinched, squeezed, trimmed, and crammed into cubicles that fit the Great Machine of producing ever more money (all too often for the lucky few). There are other values that need to be balanced into the equation of building a decent life.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 6:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Keynes infamously advocated that the government, in a depression, bury objects in the earth so that people might be employed in digging them up. No economic advice has been more ignorant about how actual, real people live.


I think that is totally wrong-headed.

Three or four years ago I wrote here that during the Great Depression of the '30's Uncle Clarence got into the CCC and went off to build roads, work on national parks and the rest of those things that the CCC did. You and Gopher poo-pooed my post.

As far as I can see, what the two of you missed was that Uncle Clarence was not a loser. He was not a parasite. He was a victim of the bad decisions made by the 1% of his time. Then FDR came in and, in his wisdom, understood that people want to support themselves. They want to live a life with the dignity that comes from contributing to the society as a whole, but more importantly, put food on the table and clothes on the backs of their kids.

You may well, and probably do, disagree. I, however, feel dignity is as important a value as economic efficiency. Is that socialist? So be it.

As I've said before, raising property (money) to be the #1 value is, in my view, an appalling ethical position to take. The devastation to people's lives is too high a price to pay when that happens. I am far less interested in the 'right' of the 1% to their freedom of economic action while privatizing profits and socializing losses than I am in constructing a fair and equal society. (Yes, I know 'fair' and 'equal' are subjective terms.)
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Thu Dec 29, 2011 8:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
^
That's all purely in the abstract.


Its a current events message board. Unless I have a job to offer you, or you a job to offer me, abstract is how it will remain.

Ya-Ta Boy wrote:
I am also reminded of the Amish. They have rejected much of modern technology and manage live decent productive lives. It isn't the kind of life everyone wants, but what is so enviable about modern lives in a consumer economy where many people openly admit they are unhappy in the rat race?


So the Amish have become the new noble savage. Interesting.

Ya-Ta Boy wrote:
Humans are not unfeeling machines to be pushed, pinched, squeezed, trimmed, and crammed into cubicles that fit the Great Machine of producing ever more money (all too often for the lucky few). There are other values that need to be balanced into the equation of building a decent life.


Resources must be allocated. There will always be economics. And lucky for you, there will also always be hippies. Relax.
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Sergio Stefanuto



Joined: 14 May 2009
Location: UK

PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2011 2:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

YTB wrote:
what is so enviable about modern lives in a consumer economy where many people openly admit they are unhappy in the rat race?


Those who are unhappy in the rat race are only unhappy because it is others benefiting and not them.

YTB wrote:
Yes, I know 'fair' and 'equal' are subjective terms


Quite. But not only that. It is laughable to expect others to accept any definition of fairness in which the proponent himself stands to benefit substantially.
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Ineverlie&I'malwaysri



Joined: 09 Aug 2011

PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2011 4:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya-ta Boy wrote:
^
I wonder about that, too.

I always loved how E-mart would pay someone to stand at the door and bow to me as I entered! Very Happy
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lithium



Joined: 18 Jun 2008

PostPosted: Tue Jan 03, 2012 7:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I predict that the economy will boom once investors know Obama is no longer the President.
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Ya-ta Boy



Joined: 16 Jan 2003
Location: Established in 1994

PostPosted: Fri Jan 06, 2012 5:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sergio Stefanuto wrote:
YTB wrote:
what is so enviable about modern lives in a consumer economy where many people openly admit they are unhappy in the rat race?


Those who are unhappy in the rat race are only unhappy because it is others benefiting and not them.



Have you read any of the literature of the last century or so? People have been complaining about the deadening effects of applying business values to society for decades and decades. Wasn't there something from a couple of thousand years ago about the love of money being the root of all evil? Even Adam Smith thought that business needed to be supervised so that selfishness didn't rule everything.

Yes, there's a reason I'm called a bleeding-heart liberal.

The glorification of the 'market' into a divine principle is no different than the glorification of 'volk' or the dictatorship of the proletariat. Or the Bible or the Koran. Fundamentalism is fundamentalism.
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Dwenjoen88



Joined: 10 Jan 2012

PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 5:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Economist also said there would be growth in 2011 last January.

Here's hoping things turn around in Europe.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2012 6:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There was growth in 2011 not much but growth, the jobs picture has improved. There are some good upward trends.
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