Korean Job Discussion Forums

[english puppet]

Just curious what people think the Won will be doing over the next 3-6 months?

It looks like there's a tendency for the Won to get a +bump in Feb/March/April.
Oanda has forecast the Won hitting 1100 or better so I'm waiting to transfer some money at this point.

I'm probably watching the Euro issues the most for things that might have a negative effect here.

A couple of questions though -

I know the long time folks here have seen unusual highs and lows over the last decade but what do you consider a median point for converting (US$)?

Last question: I recently heard a conversation about the SK government "remarking" the Won down by 70-80 Won. Has anyone heard anything about this or is this just one of many financial rumors out there?

[Otherside]

The big question is, how much are you planning to send home.

With the won sitting at 1132/$ a drop to 1100, would only mean about $26 for you per 1mill transferred home. So unless your talking a significant sum, there's little to be gained by "playing" the market, and it's just best to keep your money where it's most beneficial (i.e. are you planning to invest it back home? or are you getting a better interest rate here, etc).

That being said, the 1 year mid-point for the won is about 1122, so we're right there. 2 year mid-point is around 1150, so again pretty close.

Prior to 2008, the rate was constantly in the 900s, and then it spiked up to about 1600, before settling in it's current range of about 1050-1250.

As you have the ability to wait, I'd set ~1100 as a target, it seems to be a very obtainable price point, and at that point the potential upside of waiting is dwarfed by the downside. (Unless you're expecting it to breach pre-financial crisis high's which I'm pretty doubtful of).

[english puppet]

Otherside,

Thanks for your response and the numbers I was coming up with are about the same. I'm feeling anything between now and 1100 is as good as it gets and I'm not looking to "play" anything at this point. I can financially wait until 1100. I'm guessing in the next 2-3 weeks I'll make the move.

By the way, how'd you get your midpoint number of 1122? I came up with a similar number more or less by crudely eyeballing a chart on line!

I agree with your assessment about post-1100 being a bit riskier.

I'm seeing a lot of chatter about the Euro thing w/ Greece being settled by March - or else.

I'd want to clear my money out of the Won prior to that.[/i]