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Ineverlie&I'malwaysri
Joined: 09 Aug 2011
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 Posted: Tue Jan 31, 2012 12:56 pm Post subject: |
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Ron Paul Heads to Nevada
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Paul does well in caucus states, where superior organization and passionate supporters play to his strengths and could allow the Texas congressman to pick up more delegates than Gingrich and Santorum combined this week.
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Ineverlie&I'malwaysri
Joined: 09 Aug 2011
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| Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 4:24 am Post subject: |
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Obama no better than Bush concerning civil liberties
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Candidate Barack Obama told the American people that his administration would end the controversial search and seizure aspects of the Patriot Act, that he would restore habeas corpus and that Guantanamo Bay would be closed. He even signed an executive order on the second day of his presidency ordering that "Gitmo" be closed. He was off to a great start.
As time has passed, however, it is abundantly clear that the Obama administration is merely a continuation and worsening of the Bush administration when it comes to civil liberties and the security state. Not only has Guantanamo Bay not been closed down, but there are at least 170 men still imprisoned there � 89 of whom have been cleared for release, and 46 whom the Justice Department has admitted they lack evidence to convict.
Obama signed a four year extension of the Patriot Act in May of last year, which means four more years of seizure of records without consent or knowledge, secret surveillance without warrants and other dubious acts. Wiretaps are at an all-time high, with a 34 percent jump in 2010 compared to 2009.
In July 2010, a special report by the Washington Post titled "Top Secret America" revealed that the security state in America is only growing. The Post reported that each and every day, the National Security Agency intercepts and stores more than 1.7 billion emails, telephone calls and other types of communication. Thousands of new local government organizations that are supposed to be counter-terrorism units in nature help with this onslaught of violations of privacy.
Whistle-blowers, who publicize their knowledge of abuses of power or illegal activities, are no longer protected as well as they used to be. The Obama administration has prosecuted five whistle-blowers with the Espionage Act, more than all other administrations in history. In one such case, the federal judge actually chastised the Department of Justice lawyers for pursuing the issue, and the whistle-blower pled to a misdemeanor and walked.
The most recent assault on our civil liberties by President Obama and Congress, and by far the most dangerous, is the National Defense Appropriations Act of 2012. The NDAA is usually signed every year because it allocates funding for the Department of Defense. |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 7:11 pm Post subject: |
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| Well Santorum might win 3 states tonight (yes, I know, Missouri's is strictly symbolic). Looks like he might end up performing better in the primaries than Ron Paul. What happened to RP in the West? You'd think Colorado and Nevada would have been prime territory for him to make some gains... |
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sirius black
Joined: 04 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 10:14 pm Post subject: |
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I don't know for sure but could it be a matter of money? Its a fact that money influences votes. This may not be the case if Romney spent money there and still lost.
Paul is doing well considering. |
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borg
Joined: 30 Jan 2012
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| Posted: Tue Feb 07, 2012 11:34 pm Post subject: |
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| It's a Santorum Sweep! |
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sirius black
Joined: 04 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2012 1:10 am Post subject: |
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�I�m disillusioned by the people who are disillusioned by Obama, quite honestly, I am,� �Democrats eat their own. Democrats find singular issues and go, �Well, I didn�t get everything I wanted.� I�m a firm believer in sticking by and sticking up for the people whom you�ve elected.
�If he was a Republican running, because Republicans are better at this,� Clooney continued, �they�d be selling him as the guy who stopped 400,000 jobs a month from leaving the country. They�d be selling him as the guy who saved the auto-industry. If they had the beliefs, they�d be selling him as the guy who got rid of �Don�t Ask, Don�t Tell,� who got Osama bin Laden. You could be selling this as a very successful three years.�
http://abcnews.go.com/Entertainment/george-clooney-ides-march-barack-obama-republicans/story?id=14685674 |
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bucheon bum
Joined: 16 Jan 2003
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| Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2012 7:45 am Post subject: |
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| sirius black wrote: |
I don't know for sure but could it be a matter of money? Its a fact that money influences votes. This may not be the case if Romney spent money there and still lost.
Paul is doing well considering. |
Ron Paul has raised a lot more money than Santorum. |
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sirius black
Joined: 04 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Wed Feb 08, 2012 10:01 pm Post subject: |
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The recent victories shows that the base of the party including the religious right, are not comfortable with Romney. This may play out in a general election. Will the base come out and vote any way? It depends. If they are manaical about getting Obama out (and some are) they'll hold their nose and vote for Romney but will really be voting against Obama rather than for Romney.
How will other independents like myself go? Not sure if they will be excited by Romney or disappointed enough with Obama to vote for Romney or may stay home.
For me, I don't see Romney as improvement and to some degree a step backwards. Paul, Johnson or Huntsman would get me more excited but if its Romney or Obama then I am pretty sure how I'll vote. If one of the ones I like runs as a 3rd party, I would probably vote that way. I assume that if any of the Republican candidates run as a 3rd party it would hurt Romney more than Obama. |
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itistime
Joined: 23 Jul 2010
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| Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2012 4:30 am Post subject: |
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ronpaulronpaul___ronpaulronpaul___ronpaul___ronpaulronpaul ronpaulronpaul___ronpaulronpaul___ronpaul___ronpaulronpaul _______ronpaul___ron_______paul___ronpaul__________ronpaul _______ronpaul___ron_______paul___ronpaul__________ronpaul ronpaulronpaul___ron_______paul___ronpaul___ronpaulronpaul ronpaul__________ron_______paul___ronpaul___ronpaul_____
ronpaulronpaul___ronpaulronpaul___ronpaul___ronpaulronpaul ronpaulronpaul___ronpaulronpaul___ronpaul___ronpaulronpaul |
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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| Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2012 8:16 am Post subject: |
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| 2012 |
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Unposter
Joined: 04 Jun 2006
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| Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2012 8:29 pm Post subject: |
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Okay, it does not look like Ron Paul is going to win the Republican nomination. So, let's discuss a few new questions:
1) Will Ron Paul run as an independent. At his age, this might be his last splash.
2) If he does run as an independent, and assuming he cannot possibly win, who does a Ron Paul independent run hurt more: Republicans or Democrats?
3) Who will win the Republican nomination? In my opinion, the Republicans are looking for a balance between their big moneyed interests (Mitt Romney) and their social conservative base (looking more and more like Santorum even though he is Catholic and not Evangelical).
4) Do you think a split ticket like Romney/Santorum would get Republican support or would rank and file Republicans just walk away from anything with Romney on it?
5) Why do you think Ron Paul failed to win the Republican nomination (or will fail to win the nomination)? Is it because of his message, his campaign style, his campaign machine, Republican voters who just don't really "jive" with his message or something else?
I am of the opinion it is because Republican voters really just aren't interested in Paul's message.
Thoughts? |
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visitorq
Joined: 11 Jan 2008
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| Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2012 9:34 pm Post subject: |
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| Unposter wrote: |
I am of the opinion it is because Republican voters really just aren't interested in Paul's message.
Thoughts? |
I think it's jumping the gun to say "it looks like he won't win", since it's still too early to conclude that yet... Anyway, I do agree that a lot of mainline Republican voters aren't all that interested in in Paul's message (ie. liberty). As with Democrats, many are just interested in following a cult of personality and will vote for whomever they think fits that image and reads best from a teleprompter (whether it's Romney the Ken-doll, or Obama with halos photoshopped over his head in magazines).
In the case of evangelical types, I seriously think a lot of them are just plain clueless, don't really follow the issues (except for those that clash with their religion like abortion and gay marriage), and will just vote for whomever their church tells them to... All I can say is that I seriously question the sense of anyone who would actually vote for a bigot like Santorum or a scumbag like Newt Gingrich (seems there's no shortage of people though)... |
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comm
Joined: 22 Jun 2010
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| Posted: Thu Feb 09, 2012 10:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Unposter wrote: |
Okay, it does not look like Ron Paul is going to win the Republican nomination. So, let's discuss a few new questions:
1) Will Ron Paul run as an independent. At his age, this might be his last splash.
2) If he does run as an independent, and assuming he cannot possibly win, who does a Ron Paul independent run hurt more: Republicans or Democrats?
3) Who will win the Republican nomination? In my opinion, the Republicans are looking for a balance between their big moneyed interests (Mitt Romney) and their social conservative base (looking more and more like Santorum even though he is Catholic and not Evangelical).
4) Do you think a split ticket like Romney/Santorum would get Republican support or would rank and file Republicans just walk away from anything with Romney on it?
5) Why do you think Ron Paul failed to win the Republican nomination (or will fail to win the nomination)? Is it because of his message, his campaign style, his campaign machine, Republican voters who just don't really "jive" with his message or something else?
I am of the opinion it is because Republican voters really just aren't interested in Paul's message.
Thoughts? |
I disagree with the premise of the post, but I'll respond to the individual questions anyway...
1. Paul won't run 3rd party, but someone will and that someone will take a ton of votes from Republicans (unless Paul is the nominee, see #3)
2. The inevitable 3rd party candidate will destroy any Republican nominee other than Paul. There are too many voters who won't vote with the establishment (ex. Tea Party) and too many who won't vote with the social conservatives.
3. The complexity of the process makes it increasingly difficult to know who will win the nomination. Neither Santorum nor Gingrich are on enough State ballots to win outright, they simply didn't meet the filing requirements. So every delegate assigned to Santorum, Gingrich or Paul makes a brokered convention more and more likely. How it works is this: Voting takes place on Caucus day and delegates to the State convention are selected. The delegates selected aren't necessarily supporters of the candidate who won the vote in their district. When the State convention occurs, these delegates (again, who aren't actually tied to a candidate) then vote for National Delegates. So even though a candidate winning the Caucus vote is nice, only State Delegates are selected on Caucus night and they are NOT tied to a candidate. Following Obama's 2008 strategy, the Paul team is working very hard to make sure its supporters are selected as State delegates who will then go on to select Paul-supporting National Delegates. While SOME of these National Delegates ARE tied to Caucus-night vote totals, they are only tied to those candidates for the first round of voting at the National Convention. If no candidate can win the first round of voting (as appears more and more likely) these National Delegates are free to vote as they choose.
4. Romney and Gingrich seem to be mutually exclusive on potential tickets. And I don't think Paul would choose any of the three, as he'd probably be assassinated (also why I think Obama didn't make Hillary his VP). But Gingrich/Santorum or Romney/Santorum is very possible.
5. Voting is far from over. The more delegates that Gingrich/Santorum/Romney win, the more likely the brokered convention is. In fact, even if Romney gains enough hypothetical National Delegates from Caucus votes, the actual National Delegate vote count could well prevent him from winning the first round of voting. With that said, a lot of things are working against Paul. The strongest, which I hope I've highlighted here, is how the media is desperately trying to discount his candidacy. "Current Delegate Counts" displayed by most media outlets are vastly oversimplifying the process and underestimating the delegates which Paul is likely to receive. The only way to estimate National Delegates would be to interview elected State Delegates and hope they honestly tell you which candidate they support (which will guide their choice of National Delegate). And by all accounts that I've read (such as here and here) Paul is doing much better in the delegate race than the Caucus-night popularity contests would indicate. |
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Nowhere Man
Joined: 08 Feb 2004
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| Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 6:33 am Post subject: |
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Why do you think Ron Paul failed to win the Republican nomination (or will fail to win the nomination)? Is it because of his message, his campaign style, his campaign machine, Republican voters who just don't really "jive" with his message or something else?
I am of the opinion it is because Republican voters really just aren't interested in Paul's message. |
The best I can say for Herr Paul is that he held "tea parties" before the Tea Party co-opted him. I think he got swindled in that respect. OWS is more in line with Paul than the Tea Party.
Running on an anti-war, non-hawkish platform is pretty much anathema to the GOP.
That all being said, he was a central part of Pat Buchanan's presidential campaign. He "oops' just allowed "someone" to eliminate any chance of blacks voting for him ever.
And, really, the whole gold standard hoopla is just that. The elites own almost all of the gold, and that was a big reason why Bretton Woods wasn't considered insane at the time even if some seek to make it so now. Returning to GS will only be another set of problems.
Finally, in the very odd event he got president, you accomplish nothing without a congress supporting you. That means his whole party has to succeed and not just him. One president isn't going to order congress to just let the economy crash.
Ralph Nader would have been a far saner 3rd party entity who encompasses a large portion of Paul's sentiment, but see above... |
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ontheway
Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...
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| Posted: Fri Feb 10, 2012 9:07 am Post subject: |
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Ron Paul could still opt to run 3rd party in 2012. It's nearly too late to run Independent, but there are at least 3 third parties that he could choose to run with where he could win the nomination.
Will he choose to run 3rd party? This depends on getting inside his head. Paul hated Bush Sr. and was motivated to run against him in 1988 in addition to spreading his message. Is there anyone he detests whom he would like to run against this time while spreading his message? Does he want to make use of what is probably his last opportunity based on his age?
Running for the Republican nomination has always been an unlikely route to the White House for Paul. Polling shows that the Libertarian quadrant contains 15% to 20% of the voting public, but they are divided among Rs, Ds, Independents and non-voters, so not enough within one major party to win a nomination.
However, 2012 is set to be a very interesting year. Should Paul choose the Libertarian Party and run in November, he could win.
He would have a former governor, Gary Johnson as a running mate making a strong ticket.
He would bring a large segment of the R party with him and polls show him in the 20% range from the outset in such a scenario.
Among voters outside the Republican party, Paul is the favorite of all the Rs in the race.
There could be a very serious 4 or 5 party split in the vote that could make that quite competitive.
Obama is weak. A large percentage of voters in both parties want him out.
The Rs are weak - no matter who they choose a minority of the Rs support their candidate and outside the Rs there is little excitement in the entire field other than Paul.
The Greens could draw an important percentage, up to 7% by running Roseanne Barr for President, which is looking likely, with a strong running mate. With a large 5 way split in the works the wasted vote syndrome will no longer apply with most voters and allow voters the option to break from the Ds and Rs - she could draw even more.
There is a new 3rd party cabal of some interest called "Americans Elect" with major funding - millions of dollars have been poured into this thing from secret Billionaire and Millionaire donors - and it could make all 50 state ballots (which is nearly impossible for any 3rd party of independent to do - the Greens have never made it). They will nominate a team from the middle which could gut both Obama and the Republican campaign base. It could be nearly anyone at this point and rumors are flying. They could run a wealthy candidate and have a $200 million dollar campaign or more.
Should Paul choose to run in the Libertarian Party he could raise $100 million from an army of small donors and have a real shot in this 5 way split. |
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