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[Mia Guenne]

[Mia Guenne]

GOP Strategist: Ron Paul Will Be on GOP Ticket

What a dilemma! If Ron is on as VP with Romney, what are you gonna do?

[visitorq]

[Unposter]

There is no way I believe that Ron Paul is a serious candidate for VP. First of all, I don't think Paul would accept it. But, think about it? Who is more opinionated and independent than Ron Paul? He would be a disaster of a VP for any President, especially the current Republican field, which has significant policy differences with Ron Paul. Good Luck with that one!

Ron Paul is the only current Republican candidate to not win a state yet. In some states, he has finished third or even fourth. I just don't see how he can win the nomination at this point, even at a brokered convention, though I would be fasicinated to see how a brokered convention works.

I also think a brokered convention works against Ron Paul because party insiders will have a lot more control over the process than the general election.

In terms of why Ron Paul is losing (and will lose), I think his campaign style is part of the problem. He is still more of an idealogue who doesn't connect with people on a personal/likeable level. And, there is a little bit of the angry old man in him. He is always railing against things.

Personally, I like the way he stirs things up. He should be a pundit and run think tanks. I still have significant doubts about his ability to actually run/manage anything, even newsletters.

Romney looks like a shoo-in to me. Though, a Santorum revolution would be fun because it would destroy the Republican Party. My only question is who would you pair with Romney? Will Romney go Washington insider like McConnel or will he go outsider like ummm, I don't know?

[catman]

Yep, the Democrats are definitely pulling for Santorum.

[sirius black]

It was always going to be Romney. Romney is the choice of the party bosses. When was the last time the choice of the party bosses in the Republican party didn't get the nomination?
McCain was the serious threat in '00 and we saw what happened to him. Bush elder tried in '80 and got a VP nomination out of it but he wasn't going to get the nod till it was time for them to pick him. '96 they knew they weren't going to win in a great economy and Dole had been a long time servant so they tossed it to him.
The money and support goes to the guy they pick and its been that way for a while now.
Dems on the other hand will go with an outsider every once in a while (Obama, Clinton, Carter).
Romney is the choice for one reason and one reason only. He polls the best against Obama. Romney stands for nothing. He wants the presidency for the sake of it not some burning desire to serve the country. Don't get me wrong, Obama is the same. So, I'm not just picking on Romney.
It will be Obama v. Romney and the election will come down to 5 or 6 states: Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and possibly Virginia, Iowa or New Mexico.
I still expect Obama to win in an election that may not be as close as some predict IF things stay the same but they rarely do. Who Romney picks as VP will have a big say. The base doesn't like or trust Romney for three main reasons. He's governed a northeastern liberal state in Massachusettes and as such has had to support left of center programs to get elected. He's mormon and he's not one of them. He's not a hard core conservative. He doesn't ignite any passion in them. He's boring.
The base may not come out unless he picks a far right candidate and if he does it will get the left out and lose some of the center.
Any significant changes in the economy either way will have a big say. There is always some wild card that comes out in these things as well.

As it stands now though its Romney v. Obama and Obama should pull it out with wins in Penna., Ohio and Wisconsin. Michigan going to Romney because his dad was once Governor there and Florida may tilt toward Romney even though he is not the choice of the swing votes there (Cuban-Americans and the Jewish vote). The latter would rather have a hard core Christian like Santorum who will be a rabid pro Israel person. They won't trust Romney because of his religion.

[catman]

Even if it goes to a brokered convention I think Romney will still win. The party establishment (most superdelegates) want him as their candidate.

[comm]

[Unposter]

Latest polling I read said that Santorum was pulling 30% nationwide, Romeny was at 28 or 29 and Ron Paul was at about 12.

The Republican nomination is actually a one man race (Romney) with a confidence/no-confidence choice. Surprisingly, Romney does not seem to have much confidence out of his 30% or less.

I would say I have never seen this fractured of a Republican party in my lifetime. Even in 1996 when the Republicans didn't think they had much chance preventing Clinton a second term, they were perfectly united around Dole.

I would say this does not bode well for the Republicans.

[sirius black]

Lets face it 40 of the 50 states are already decided. The biggest of the swing states is where the election will be won or lost. Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The other swing states (N. Mexico, Iowa, Virginia, etc.) are all important as well but the 5 biggest have the means to win or lose a fairly close election.
Romney will win the nomination. There is no doubt. How easy or difficult remains a question but in the end he'll win it. The next big thing the Republcan party has to decide is the VP slot.

It won't be Paul for a few reasons, some obvious to most political observers. Romney may choose Santorum.

In theory, he will pick up 2 of the 5 biggest swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania and then concentrate on Ohio and Florida. Florida could tip his way with Santorum getting the Jewish vote for his support of Israel. If that happens, its gonna be a very close election. Obama will probably win Wisconsin and he'll have to win Ohio as well and he's not that far ahead there to be safe. Virginia also becomes vital for Obama as well under the preceding scenario.

[sirius black]

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/republican-candidates-avoid-direct-outreach-michigan-muslims-arab-134539124.html
Muslims and Arab Americans in Michigan aren�t getting attention from Republican presidential candidatesoutside the largest mosque in the country, the Islamic Center of America, as the parking lot filled with worshipers at Friday prayers. Outside, four people passed out flyers in support of Ron Paul, which included Arabic and English translations of Paul's campaign message.
The other Republican presidential candidates have all but ignored Muslim voters in Michigan, which holds its primary on Tuesday. As many Muslims here see it, the rhetoric and proposals of the candidates have repelled even longtime Republicans in their community.
That's one reason why Paul, a candidate who has questioned American aid to Israel and whose non-interventionist foreign policy has gained wide support among Arab voters, received an endorsement Friday from the Arab American News, a Dearborn-based newspaper published in Arabic and English.
"The Arab American News ... sees Dr. Paul's refreshing, forthright foreign policy philosophy as one of his greatest strengths at a time when the specter of a potentially catastrophic war looms over festering, misunderstood and misreported conflicts in the Middle East," the paper's editors wrote on Friday. "His positions are perhaps the best hope for even a remotely balanced policy in the troubled region that we've seen in decades."
Arab Republicans in the Detroit area say they are planning to announce a joint endorsement of Paul with about 150 mostly Muslim business leaders. In interviews with Yahoo News, those signing onto the pending endorsement expressed dismay with candidates like Newt Gingrich, who refers to Palestinians as an "invented people"--Arab Americans here jokingly call Gingrich "the invented candidate"--and Rick Santorum, for his hawkish stance on Iran and his stalwart defense of Israel.
"They've come out against practically every position that the Arabs in the community support," said Nasser Beydoun, the former head of American Arab Chamber of Commerce in Dearborn. "I don't think Republicans are focused on immigrants in general or Arab Americans. They're too busy catering to the fringes of the party."

[sirius black]

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/power-players-abc-news/republicans-already-lost-192340271.html
Have the Republicans Already Lost?

Yes, it's only February. Eight months from election day. And so it's true that it is ridiculous to suggest this race is really over. But as of this moment, it does not look good for the Republican party caught up in a messy primary battle that often looks more like a circular firing squad.
And as ABC News Political Director Amy Walter points out, Mitt Romney's ugly win in Michigan last night didn't help matters. Sure, a win is a win. But the Romney campaign's greatest strength has been eviscerating opponents, not making a strong case for Mitt Romney. "They figure out what the weakness is of their top opponent, they go in there spend a lot of money and do a lot of negative ads, and exploit whatever that weakness is. The problem with that is they don't' ever build themselves up," Walter says.
The Republican primary battle in Michigan was so ugly, ABC's Rick Klein points out, that this critical battleground state seems to have tilted back to the Democrats. All the talk of the auto bailout, opposed by each of the Republican candidates, and the divisive social issues, did damage to the party in Michigan and perhaps more broadly as well, Klein says. "Now you've got Ohio coming up (on Super Tuesday next week). You've got another state that's a lot like Michigan. If the same kind of battle happens over the next week, then they have to worry about another big state potentially tipping to the Democrats."
The Obama campaign benefits from the protracted Republican primary, but also from an improving economy. As Yahoo! News' David Chalian points out, that not only helps the president but also steals the thunder from Romney's main campaign theme. "If Mitt Romney is Mr. Fix It on the economy, but the guy who's sitting in the Oval Office is actually fixing the economy right now, then where does Mitt Romney go from there?"
All that being said, election day is still a long eight months away. A lot could happen in the economy, in international news, here at home and, of course, on the campaign trail that could impact all of this.

[bucheon bum]

So hows Ron Paul doing these days?

[visitorq]

[Kuros]

Ron Paul's performance is disappointing. As of this post, he has less than half of Gingrich's and less than 1/10th of Romney's delegates.

In Virginia, only Romney and Ron Paul were on the ballot. Romney won 43 delegates. Ron Paul won three. Three more are unallocated. Its not good.