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The Great China Hype Thread
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Wed Feb 22, 2012 1:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Oh I think that if it got tought India would attempt to sever the South seas routes. China and Japans have been playing game s with each sides ships buzzing each other. Of course the U.S keeps forces in the area that could dominate the oceans if a war erupted.

I dont think China will bankrupt itself on military spending, I also think they have legitimate reasons to have a sizable and modern military.

The U.S/Chinese relationship is amazingingly complex. My take on theChinese and how they fell about the U.S is that it is a country to admire and emulate. They also remember the help that the U.S gave China. There is a lot of goodwill toward the U.S. in China. There is also a lot of envy and a deep seated need in the Chinese to return to a position of being the richest most powerful nation on earth. Just as U.S foreign policy often suffers because of lingering shreds of the cold war mentality, the ghost of Mao and his lunacy cloud China's vision.

The U.S has always had mixed feelings about China. Seeing the Chinese as the 'yellow peril" but admiring Chinese civilization and seeing the Chinese as just like Americans but needing Christianiaty.

I will send you the story of the border shooting , thanks ffor reminding me.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

China Hype is centered in the Western world. The Great China Hype are the fears we project upon China, and have more to do with our discourse than the realities of modern China. But nowhere does China Hype get louder than when it comes to US-China relations.

Who owns America? Hint: It's not China


Quote:
Many people � politicians and pundits alike � prattle on that China and, to a lesser extent Japan, own most of America's $14.3 trillion in government debt.

But there's one little problem with that conventional wisdom: it's just not true. While the Chinese, Japanese and plenty of other foreigners own substantial amounts, it's really Americans who hold most of America's debt.

Here's a quick and fascinating breakdown by total amount held and percentage of total U.S. debt, according to Business Insider:

�Hong Kong: $121.9 billion (0.9 percent)
�Caribbean banking centers: $148.3 (1 percent)
�Taiwan: $153.4 billion (1.1 percent)
�Brazil: $211.4 billion (1.5 percent)
�Oil exporting countries: $229.8 billion (1.6 percent)
�Mutual funds: $300.5 billion (2 percent)
�Commercial banks: $301.8 billion (2.1 percent)
�State, local and federal retirement funds: $320.9 billion (2.2 percent)
�Money market mutual funds: $337.7 billion (2.4 percent)
�United Kingdom: $346.5 billion (2.4 percent)
�Private pension funds: $504.7 billion (3.5 percent)
�State and local governments: $506.1 billion (3.5 percent)
�Japan: $912.4 billion (6.4 percent)
�U.S. households: $959.4 billion (6.6 percent)
�China: $1.16 trillion (8 percent)
�The U.S. Treasury: $1.63 trillion (11.3 percent)
�Social Security trust fund: $2.67 trillion (19 percent)

So America owes foreigners about $4.5 trillion in debt. But America owes America $9.8 trillion.
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visitorq



Joined: 11 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Fri Feb 24, 2012 12:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

^ yep, and really it goes more the other way: that China has to play by America's terms. That's what happens when your own currency is backed by trillions in foreign fiat (USD) reserves. China has to keep refinancing US debt, or risk losing its assets. This is why China is, and has always been, a captive market.

You could say that it's a sort of symbiotic relationship (the whole 'Chimerica' thing) - but the US still holds most of the world's gold reserves (by far), so even if the USD tanks, we can just re-peg the devalued currency to gold (or even issue a new currency). China doesn't have that option.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Sat Feb 25, 2012 11:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spot on visitorq. Yes the U.S holds almost all the cards in the relationship. China is no where near as powerful as it is made out to be. In Western China some places are just barely entering the industrial age.
In the Western provinces many are still nomadic herders. The hype that China is a great threat to the U.S and that the Chinese economy is going to keep up it's fantastic growth are just wrong. They seem to be headed into an economic hardlanding. Inflation less exports, big tech disadvantages, and corruption on epic levels are hammering their economy. The continuing unrest in Tibet and with the Uigyar ethnic group are larger problems than the West realizes because China keeps storys about problems out of the news. Two years ago a series of bus bombings in Southern China killed about two hundred people, not a word in the Chinese and Western press. No word on who did this but many think it was Tibetans. Hong Kong is also a powder keg.
The Hong Kongers and mainlanders hate each others guts.
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Nowhere Man



Joined: 08 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 6:15 am    Post subject: ... Reply with quote

Hmm...

Back when Japan owned America, it was about golf courses (assets). I like how it's now about our debt. Who exactly are the people prattling on about this?

A google shows the link above first, one youtube random, ...and ALEX JONES! Laughing

I especially like how we hold the cards because of our debt. That's rich. This is the China hype thread, no?

OK, so look! America owns most of its own 14 trillion dollar debt. Wooooohoooo!

Two countries in Asia own 1/6 of it, but the best bit is how that makes them at our mercy.

Debt shmebt, we could just make a new gold currency!
IOW. we could just default on 15 trillion dollars owed and start anew!
Talk about a project for the new American century...

http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock

Yer, we'd really put the screws to them Chinese by defaulting on our debt.

Aside from plunging the entire world into a catastrophic economic armageddon, who is going to shrug off all of that and persevere, the country holding 8% of the debt or the defaulting country holding, as the above article shows, almost all of it?

The cherry on the cake here is how y'all put it together:

Kuros: Look! China only holds a wee bit of our debt. HYPE!
Rollo and Q-Bert: Yep, China holds so much of our debt that we control them!

Superb.

Rollo, Nepalese border guards?

And this:

Quote:
The U.S has always had mixed feelings about China. Seeing the Chinese as the 'yellow peril" but admiring Chinese civilization and seeing the Chinese as just like Americans but needing Christianiaty.


o.O
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 7:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The cherry on the cake here is how y'all put it together:

Kuros: Look! China only holds a wee bit of our debt. HYPE!
Rollo and Q-Bert: Yep, China holds so much of our debt that we control them!

Superb.


These sentiments aren't contradictory. China holds 8% of our debt, which also amounts to 8% of US GDP. Significant, but not to be hyped. But $1.16 trillion is almost 20% of China's $6 trillion GDP. China is the junior partner, here, even if they appear to be playing their hand better than ours (and economically they very likely are).
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Nowhere Man



Joined: 08 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 8:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Public Debt 17.5% of GDP 58.9% of GDP
\
Quote:

Current Account Balance $272.5 billion $ -561.0 billion


Quote:
Debt - External $406.6 billion $13.98 Trillion


http://seekingalpha.com/article/272370-u-s-vs-china-a-short-economic-comparison

And, pray-tell, how do you get to senior partner, Kuros?

Consider the trade deficit as well:
TOTAL 2011 103,878.6 399,335.1 -295,456.5

I honestly didn't come to this thread to wave pom-poms for China but...

-China is free of a paleolithic party that pretends the social reforms of the 20th century are still on the table as hot topics to be debated

-China is free of a defense industry that spends millions on politicians to keep it relevant

-China has a massive back yard for development and expansion

-CHINA IS NOT !5 TRILLION DOLLARS IN DEBT, nor do I think it has any such aspirations

I guess that means no senior partner for them, eh?
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cwflaneur



Joined: 04 Aug 2009

PostPosted: Tue Feb 28, 2012 5:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rollo wrote:
The continuing unrest in Tibet and with the Uigyar ethnic group are larger problems than the West realizes because China keeps storys about problems out of the news. Two years ago a series of bus bombings in Southern China killed about two hundred people, not a word in the Chinese and Western press. No word on who did this but many think it was Tibetans. Hong Kong is also a powder keg.
The Hong Kongers and mainlanders hate each others guts.


Tibet and Xinxiang are just the tip of the iceberg.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903703604576587070600504108.html
Quote:
In 2010, China was rocked by 180,000 protests, riots and other mass incidents�more than four times the tally from a decade earlier. That figure, reported by Sun Liping, a professor at Tsinghua University, rather than official sources, doesn't tell the whole story on the turmoil in what is now the world's second-largest economy.

But what is clear is that the level of social tension and number of protests against the government is rising. That is a sensitive subject as the ruling Communist Party prepares to mark the 62nd anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China on Oct. 1.

As worrying to the Communist Party as the increase in protests is the fact that many of them stem from everyday economic injustice. Unrest isn't confined to the ethnic minority areas of Tibet and Xinjiang. Most protests target land grabs by developers and abuses of power by local officials, or unpaid wages by construction firms.


180,000 incidents of civil unrest in a year? That's about 500 a day.
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The Floating World



Joined: 01 Oct 2011
Location: Here

PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 2:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The U.S/Chinese relationship is amazingingly complex. My take on theChinese and how they fell about the U.S is that it is a country to admire and emulate. They also remember the help that the U.S gave China. There is a lot of goodwill toward the U.S. in China


Not true. They look towards Europe and America with seething bad feelings over the opium wars and then the concessions / unequal treaties. Not your everyday person, but some groups.
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Kuros



Joined: 27 Apr 2004

PostPosted: Wed Feb 29, 2012 6:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Floating World wrote:
Quote:
The U.S/Chinese relationship is amazingingly complex. My take on theChinese and how they fell about the U.S is that it is a country to admire and emulate. They also remember the help that the U.S gave China. There is a lot of goodwill toward the U.S. in China


Not true. They look towards Europe and America with seething bad feelings over the opium wars and then the concessions / unequal treaties. Not your everyday person, but some groups.


That's directed more towards Europe. Chinese resentment towards America is centered around Taiwan, not unequal treaty cities like Hong Kong, Macau, Qingdao, Dalien, Shanghai, etc.
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rollo



Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China

PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 4:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well the Chinese look toward Britain and Europe with seething hatred, over the opium wars and mpts by European powers to carve China up and steal her resources but the U.S was the world power who stood up for China at that time a little thing called the Open Door policy stopped Britain from basically annexing the East coast. it was American ships which put down the Yangtse river pirates and opened up the interior for trade. it was the U.S who sent fighters and flyers that slowed the Japanese advance acrooss China while British politicians praised the Japanese for bringing civilization to the heathen Chinese. American citizens established schools and established an orginaztion which enabled Chinese students to study at ivy league schools. Britain shipped thousands of Chinese girls to the brothels of London. Big difference..

America has always been Miguk to the Chinese "The beautiful country" Do they resent many of the U.S actions in the region , of course but they also admire the U.S. A very comples and often contradictary relationship
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The Floating World



Joined: 01 Oct 2011
Location: Here

PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 7:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Antother attempt to bait ppl into an america vs uk flame war eh?

The complex relationship goes both ways and you know that.

The fact is that as I mentiond China looks to the west (both Europe and the Us) with a mixture of resentment and admiration. The US had their concessions too btw, they were sly enough to wangle the Brits into changing the names of some of the areas to the 'International Concession' once they had managed to get an invite to the party.


Last edited by The Floating World on Thu Mar 01, 2012 9:21 pm; edited 1 time in total
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visitorq



Joined: 11 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2012 7:39 pm    Post subject: Re: ... Reply with quote

(just saw this reply now)...

Nowhere Man wrote:
Hmm...

Back when Japan owned America, it was about golf courses (assets). I like how it's now about our debt. Who exactly are the people prattling on about this?

What are you talking about? Owning golf courses (ie. real assets) is a lot different from just sitting on a bunch of US bonds. I don't see the Chinese spending their trillions buying up real assets in the US (and even if they did, the massive inflation that would cause would devalue their remaining reserves).

Quote:
A google shows the link above first, one youtube random, ...and ALEX JONES! Laughing

Why do you bring him up in every exchange? I honestly haven't watched him in like a year (although I do enjoy hearing the odd rant on youtube). You, on the other hand, seem to have a minor obsession with the man...

Quote:
I especially like how we hold the cards because of our debt. That's rich. This is the China hype thread, no?

OK, so look! America owns most of its own 14 trillion dollar debt. Wooooohoooo!

Two countries in Asia own 1/6 of it, but the best bit is how that makes them at our mercy.

It's really not that hard to understand. Even someone like yourself who knows nothing whatsoever about monetary or fiscal policy should be able to grasp it (if you weren't so busy blathering on about nothing).

Quote:
Debt shmebt, we could just make a new gold currency!
IOW. we could just default on 15 trillion dollars owed and start anew!
Talk about a project for the new American century...

Actually, yes, this pretty much could happen if it ever came to that. In the meantime the Chinese will just keep refinancing the US debt, because they have no other option. If anything brings the house of cards down though, it will almost certainly be the reckless policies of the US government and the Federal Reserve.

Quote:
Yer, we'd really put the screws to them Chinese by defaulting on our debt.

Aside from plunging the entire world into a catastrophic economic armageddon, who is going to shrug off all of that and persevere, the country holding 8% of the debt or the defaulting country holding, as the above article shows, almost all of it?

That debt has no value. It would simply be wiped clean, and after a period of hurt, we would revert back to currencies backed by precious metals. It wouldn't be the first time in history that a paper currency were debased to nothing.
Quote:

The cherry on the cake here is how y'all put it together:

Kuros: Look! China only holds a wee bit of our debt. HYPE!
Rollo and Q-Bert: Yep, China holds so much of our debt that we control them!

Superb.

And yet despite all your useless sarcasm, the fact does remain...

It's not just that China "holds" our debt - it's that said debt is treated as something valuable (and is the foundation upon which their own monetary system is built).
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Nowhere Man



Joined: 08 Feb 2004

PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 12:12 pm    Post subject: ... Reply with quote

What raised eyebrows here:
Quote:
The U.S has always had mixed feelings about China. Seeing the Chinese as the 'yellow peril" but admiring Chinese civilization and seeing the Chinese as just like Americans but needing Christianiaty.


was the seeing Chinese as the same as Americans. Our culture is chock-full of slurs against the Chinese. Fire drills, telephone, etc...

Quote:
Well the Chinese look toward Britain and Europe with seething hatred


The Japanese easily win any seething hatred contest, and even there the younger generation is growing up in a new world where that's old hat.

Quote:
America has always been Miguk to the Chinese "The beautiful country"


Meaning is right, but someone's been in Korea too long.

I call BS on your Nepali border guard story. It's either made up or misread.

And Mister Q...

Alex Jones comes up promptly when you google who is saying China owns the US.

Moreover, you can't just wave a wand and dismiss 14 trillion dollars in debt. I know it's fiat money, but so is all the other money, and it would destroy the global economy. But, hey, I know nothing about fiscal and monetary policy. You seem to, though, just like you're an expert on Lincoln being a sham, WWII being a sham, and the Surgeon General sterilizing us through the water supply.

Furthermore, I know you'll happily go on for 30 pages defending these views, largely with a wave of your hand dismissing whatever doesn't suit you. As such, I'm not going to get into a point-by-point discussion with you. And yes, it because I know nothing and can't handle the truth. Laughing
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visitorq



Joined: 11 Jan 2008

PostPosted: Sat Mar 03, 2012 12:55 pm    Post subject: Re: ... Reply with quote

Nowhere Man wrote:
Moreover, you can't just wave a wand and dismiss 14 trillion dollars in debt.

Actually yes you can. No wand waving necessary - it either just happens on its own (hyperinflation), or the government can just devalue the currency. Outright default and issuing a new currency (backed by gold/silver) would be a giant swindle and wreak havoc on global markets, but is certainly a real option (and basically the only one if hyperinflation ever kicks in) that would ultimately solve the debt problem.

Quote:
I know it's fiat money, but so is all the other money, and it would destroy the global economy.

Wouldn't be the first time this has happened. It can certainly happen again. But I guess if denial suits you better, then stick with that.
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