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Upcoming Demise of Western economies and finding work in EFL
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GreatUnderachiever



Joined: 08 Apr 2011

PostPosted: Thu Mar 29, 2012 1:27 pm    Post subject: Upcoming Demise of Western economies and finding work in EFL Reply with quote

How well the collapse of European and American (everyone is saying it's gonna happen, probably within a few years?) economy effect the chances of getting into TEFL teaching?

I guess it will be impossible in few years Shocked Shocked , unless you have experience and/or advanced qualifications.
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RK12



Joined: 19 Feb 2012

PostPosted: Thu Mar 29, 2012 2:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I imagine that jobs will be booming in China (more than it already is) and that the pay of English teachers will remain the same or even drop due to that some will try to get any job because back home there is none and thus some pay is better than no pay.

I'd also imagine that some countries would get a lot more picky and want people will real qualifications like at least a BA in education or linguistics if not paired with a TESOL certificate or a MA in TESOL.

Some countries could also be more picky that they want bilingual teachers and mostly choose from those in their own country either natives or English teachers that are already there to teach and no let new people in. They could also try to only have natives from their country teach English and expel all the foreigners to stop the invasion of westerns coming into the country for money.
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Stan Rogers



Joined: 20 Aug 2010

PostPosted: Thu Mar 29, 2012 4:23 pm    Post subject: Re: Upcoming Demise of Western economies and finding work in Reply with quote

GreatUnderachiever wrote:
How well the collapse of European and American (everyone is saying it's gonna happen, probably within a few years?) economy effect the chances of getting into TEFL teaching?

I guess it will be impossible in few years Shocked Shocked , unless you have experience and/or advanced qualifications.


All these doomsday prophets remind me of the witches in MacBeth, dancing around the cauldron making dark predictions based upon what they see with the one eye they share.
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YTMND



Joined: 16 Jan 2012
Location: You're the man now dog!!

PostPosted: Thu Mar 29, 2012 5:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rich people will decide what they want. Poor people won't. Move into any neighborhood, and you will see the upscale area (near downtown). This isn't about East vs. West. This is about getting funds differently.

For the typical office slacky, yea, it's gonna be tough. Better hit the books, sign up for some classes, and get the stars to make the rich imperialists happy.
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Modernist



Joined: 23 Mar 2011
Location: The 90s

PostPosted: Thu Mar 29, 2012 5:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
How well the collapse of European and American (everyone is saying it's gonna happen, probably within a few years?) economy effect the chances of getting into TEFL teaching?

Wishful thinking. People 'saying' this is 'going to happen' are ones who WANT it to happen. And who are they, anyway? Wasn't that supposed to happen from the American housing crisis? Oops. Well, for SURE it was going to happen from the Euro sovereign debt crisis? Oops. And we can go back year after year and read the prophecies of doom one after the other. I'm pretty sure the entire eurozone was supposed to have fallen apart by now. 'Cause Greece was going to default [not yet], and Italy and Spain weren't going to be able to sell their bonds [sorry] and Germany wasn't going to allow any adjustments to the debt loads [whoops]. On and on.

Even more amusing are all the fools who somehow imagine that a collapse of the 2 largest economies in the world would not affect any others. Like China and India and Russia and the Middle East would just shrug, chuckle, and go about their business. Really? Who does China sell its manufactures to? Whose currencies do they hold their reserves in? Where does Russian natural gas go? Who writes the checks for all the big shiny service campuses in India? And what do the Saudis and Iranians do with all that black goop they pump out of the desert? There's no 'Western economy', just like there's no 'developing economies.' There's only one--the global economy. We're all in the same boat, now, and we all have an equal responsibility to keep it above the water and moving. It if sinks, we all drown.
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goreality



Joined: 09 Jul 2009

PostPosted: Thu Mar 29, 2012 9:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Isn't Korea's economy reliant on selling stuff to the west? I know they trade with China too, but isn't China's economy reliant on the west, too? To assume that if a collapse happened in the west, a resource poor Asian would somehow be much better off is a wacky theory. My theory is with the collapse of the west, English will die too. Best bet is to learn Chinese cause in a couple of years it will be all about CFL teaching.
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Weigookin74



Joined: 26 Oct 2009

PostPosted: Thu Mar 29, 2012 10:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RK12 wrote:
I imagine that jobs will be booming in China (more than it already is) and that the pay of English teachers will remain the same or even drop due to that some will try to get any job because back home there is none and thus some pay is better than no pay.

I'd also imagine that some countries would get a lot more picky and want people will real qualifications like at least a BA in education or linguistics if not paired with a TESOL certificate or a MA in TESOL.

Some countries could also be more picky that they want bilingual teachers and mostly choose from those in their own country either natives or English teachers that are already there to teach and no let new people in. They could also try to only have natives from their country teach English and expel all the foreigners to stop the invasion of westerns coming into the country for money.


Though the English level has improved, there are still many teachers including conversation teachers who suck at English. Plus the kids come up to me at break and try to speak to me in English. With the Korean English teachers, they will speak Korean. If Korea is serious, they will bring in native speakers xenophobia or not. Already, Korea has surpassed Japan and is leaps and bounds ahead of China.

By the way, the US is showing signs of a recovery. It will be interesting to see what unfolds by next year here. By 2014, maybe we'll see things flip back to English teachers again.
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comm



Joined: 22 Jun 2010

PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 2:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RK12 wrote:
Some countries could also be more picky that they want bilingual teachers and mostly choose from those in their own country either natives or English teachers that are already there to teach and no let new people in. They could also try to only have natives from their country teach English and expel all the foreigners to stop the invasion of westerns coming into the country for money.

I think you'll quickly find that Korea is not one of these countries. Though China would certainly have the political will to regulate their TEFL market if they deemed that best.
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Julius



Joined: 27 Jul 2006

PostPosted: Fri Mar 30, 2012 7:08 am    Post subject: Re: Upcoming Demise of Western economies and finding work in Reply with quote

GreatUnderachiever wrote:
How well the collapse of European and American (everyone is saying it's gonna happen, probably within a few years?) economy effect the chances of getting into TEFL teaching?

I guess it will be impossible in few years Shocked Shocked , unless you have experience and/or advanced qualifications.


well...logically, if western economies collapse...then nobody will want to learn english anymore. Obviously.
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litebear



Joined: 12 Sep 2009
Location: Holland

PostPosted: Sat Mar 31, 2012 12:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bloody hell. First live failure, now the collapse of the Western economies. What a week! You're not even due to arrive in Korea for a few years yet, god knows what else could go wrong in that time!
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english puppet



Joined: 04 Nov 2011

PostPosted: Sat Mar 31, 2012 2:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

While the question might have been framed a bit differently I think it's a very reasonable question.

English or ESL is hardly a sacred, untouchable field. Industries and markets of all types have been known to fold up and or fade to levels that make them untenable.

Consider the prior "infallibility" of buying a house and the current market int he US. There are still some 3 million homes in the US that have not made a mortgage payment in the last 12 months - also known as "shadow inventory". I recently saw a Bloomberg report that suggested the housing crisis could be as little as only half way through it's just been put on hold to avoid writing the housing to its actual market value. This doesn't even touch the issues around empty commercial real estate.

Clearly, there are budget and financial issues in Korea that have already impacted employment here on some level (could debate levels of this obviously).

As they say, the future's hard to predict but when you consider the number of other issues of western debt, environmental problems etc. it's hard to see ESL as somehow removed from things.

It's just speculation - I don't think you can measure this, but I think the "west" may have taken an image hit to say the least over the last few years with regard to the financial crisis. I don't think something of a shift to Chinese would be hard to imagine?

I've lived and taught in two other countries that were negatively affected by politics and financial problems that severely impacted people's pocket books. Small private schools, the tax base etc. shrink when people prioritize differently.

As others have pointed out here - pretty tied in together. Continued economic problems in the west mean reduced sales of electronics and autos in Asia. No simple formulas but easy to see financial problems here (continued problems in Japan) and even unrest in China.
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Matt_22



Joined: 22 Nov 2006

PostPosted: Sat Mar 31, 2012 3:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Modernist wrote:
Quote:
How well the collapse of European and American (everyone is saying it's gonna happen, probably within a few years?) economy effect the chances of getting into TEFL teaching?

Wishful thinking. People 'saying' this is 'going to happen' are ones who WANT it to happen. And who are they, anyway? Wasn't that supposed to happen from the American housing crisis? Oops. Well, for SURE it was going to happen from the Euro sovereign debt crisis? Oops. And we can go back year after year and read the prophecies of doom one after the other. I'm pretty sure the entire eurozone was supposed to have fallen apart by now. 'Cause Greece was going to default [not yet], and Italy and Spain weren't going to be able to sell their bonds [sorry] and Germany wasn't going to allow any adjustments to the debt loads [whoops]. On and on.

Even more amusing are all the fools who somehow imagine that a collapse of the 2 largest economies in the world would not affect any others. Like China and India and Russia and the Middle East would just shrug, chuckle, and go about their business. Really? Who does China sell its manufactures to? Whose currencies do they hold their reserves in? Where does Russian natural gas go? Who writes the checks for all the big shiny service campuses in India? And what do the Saudis and Iranians do with all that black goop they pump out of the desert? There's no 'Western economy', just like there's no 'developing economies.' There's only one--the global economy. We're all in the same boat, now, and we all have an equal responsibility to keep it above the water and moving. It if sinks, we all drown.




Well put. I'd also add that on the flip side, a lot of "economic triumphalism" ends up looking pretty foolish years later.

There were the old predictions of the Japanese economy dwarfing the US economy back in the 80s, there was an east Asian triumphalism that stubbed its toe hard in 97, there was the Washington Consensus and the American chest-thumping in the late 90s (tech bubble took care of that), and the constant European arrogance of the 2000s - not looking so proud at the moment.

I guess if your country is sitting pretty, might as well boast while you can. Impossible to know what things will look like five years down the road, let alone a generation. It's not very easy to maintain economic growth.
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Matt_22



Joined: 22 Nov 2006

PostPosted: Sat Mar 31, 2012 3:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

FWIW, I really don't see Chinese ever replacing English as the international language. There are just too many factors working against it.

1) Inertia.
2) Only a few countries speak it (as an official language)
3) Characters are far less accessible than the Latin alphabet
4) Rejection of what's viewed as an ethnically-exclusive language
5) Increased internationalization of western countries (far exceeding that of China)
6) Distrust among the Asian powers
7) Rise of India

Increased globalization has certainly led more people into the field of ESL, but there are increasing millions of people in the developing world now able to afford luxuries such as language studies.

It'll be interesting to see how things are affected once western economies stabilize.
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ontheway



Joined: 24 Aug 2005
Location: Somewhere under the rainbow...

PostPosted: Sat Mar 31, 2012 9:48 am    Post subject: Re: Upcoming Demise of Western economies and finding work in Reply with quote

GreatUnderachiever wrote:
How well the collapse of European and American (everyone is saying it's gonna happen, probably within a few years?) economy effect the chances of getting into TEFL teaching?

I guess it will be impossible in few years Shocked Shocked , unless you have experience and/or advanced qualifications.


A total collapse as you suggest would likely mean a worldwide depression - a 3rd Great Depression and the worst ever - and the end of nearly all ESL teaching opportunities and most teachers of all varieties would find themselves farming bits of land, living as squatters or hanging on to debt-free property, begging, and stealing along with a large percentage of the rest of the world. This is not something to be wished for, although warning against something is not the same as desire.


The collapse of the American and European economies simultaneously would herald a worldwide depression. Yes it could happen, but economies are large systems and change occurs over long time frames. Such a total collpase could come if the US doesn't massively reduce its deficit and massively cut total debt including unfunded liabilities - now over $110 trillion - by repeal of entitlement programs.

The approach of the Fed is to reduce the real value of government liabilities and entitlement payments through inflation. This requires cooperation of the legislative branch in freezing the nominal value of entitlements and other obligations so inflation can have its effect while simultaneously hiding the inflation from the general public through phony CPI stats. This will also entail a significant reduction in real income levels and lowering of living standards of 99% of the public which is why subterfuge and mendacity are essential elements in the plans of the ruling cabal.

This is no accident. It is the predictable outcome of socialism - a massive transfer of wealth to the politically connected ruling classes and the impoverishment of the general public - all while the socialists call for more.

We have not yet recovered from the 2nd Great Depression, although the Federal Reserve has blown its massive inflationary bubble - the first step in its plan. That inflation will cause an explosive increase in price levels over the next few years (most of which will be hidden by CPI legerdemain).

What happens besides an ocean of inflation depends on a panoply of variables and is unpredictable - although we can say what will happen under a variety of circumstances, we cannot predict the behavior of the governmental participants.

We can save the government though inflation and rob future generations through lower living standards.

We can tip into a worldwide depression - by continuing to spend, tax and borrow.

We can cut total government back to less than 10% of total GDP, eliminate all taxes beyond a 10% consumption tax and get back to work with growing prosperity for the general public.


The governments of the world have us heading in the direction of a collapse, and socialistic lemmings demanding ever more in freebies paid for by no one from the hands of government insist that we continue down the road to destruction all while destroying the productive sector. The Federal Reserve and other government financial bodies want to save and enrich themselves and prevent collapse by impoverishing the people.

We have an interesting future ahead.
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YTMND



Joined: 16 Jan 2012
Location: You're the man now dog!!

PostPosted: Sat Mar 31, 2012 11:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stock up on water, guns, and duct tape. This one is going to be a doozy.
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