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krnpowr
Joined: 08 Dec 2011
Location: Midwest, USA
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 Posted: Sat Mar 31, 2012 12:24 pm Post subject: Re: Upcoming Demise of Western economies and finding work in |
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| ontheway wrote: |
| GreatUnderachiever wrote: |
How well the collapse of European and American (everyone is saying it's gonna happen, probably within a few years?) economy effect the chances of getting into TEFL teaching?
I guess it will be impossible in few years  , unless you have experience and/or advanced qualifications. |
A total collapse as you suggest would likely mean a worldwide depression - a 3rd Great Depression and the worst ever - and the end of nearly all ESL teaching opportunities and most teachers of all varieties would find themselves farming bits of land, living as squatters or hanging on to debt-free property, begging, and stealing along with a large percentage of the rest of the world. This is not something to be wished for, although warning against something is not the same as desire.
The collapse of the American and European economies simultaneously would herald a worldwide depression. Yes it could happen, but economies are large systems and change occurs over long time frames. Such a total collpase could come if the US doesn't massively reduce its deficit and massively cut total debt including unfunded liabilities - now over $110 trillion - by repeal of entitlement programs.
The approach of the Fed is to reduce the real value of government liabilities and entitlement payments through inflation. This requires cooperation of the legislative branch in freezing the nominal value of entitlements and other obligations so inflation can have its effect while simultaneously hiding the inflation from the general public through phony CPI stats. This will also entail a significant reduction in real income levels and lowering of living standards of 99% of the public which is why subterfuge and mendacity are essential elements in the plans of the ruling cabal.
This is no accident. It is the predictable outcome of socialism - a massive transfer of wealth to the politically connected ruling classes and the impoverishment of the general public - all while the socialists call for more.
We have not yet recovered from the 2nd Great Depression, although the Federal Reserve has blown its massive inflationary bubble - the first step in its plan. That inflation will cause an explosive increase in price levels over the next few years (most of which will be hidden by CPI legerdemain).
What happens besides an ocean of inflation depends on a panoply of variables and is unpredictable - although we can say what will happen under a variety of circumstances, we cannot predict the behavior of the governmental participants.
We can save the government though inflation and rob future generations through lower living standards.
We can tip into a worldwide depression - by continuing to spend, tax and borrow.
We can cut total government back to less than 10% of total GDP, eliminate all taxes beyond a 10% consumption tax and get back to work with growing prosperity for the general public.
The governments of the world have us heading in the direction of a collapse, and socialistic lemmings demanding ever more in freebies paid for by no one from the hands of government insist that we continue down the road to destruction all while destroying the productive sector. The Federal Reserve and other government financial bodies want to save and enrich themselves and prevent collapse by impoverishing the people.
We have an interesting future ahead. |
You're pretty articulate and certainly full of semantics. If all else fails, I'm sure you'd have a future as a mouthpiece and pundit for a conservative think tank or watchdog group- with all due respect.
I would agree that The West is in no danger of collapsing over night- certainly not the U.S. What we're witnessing is merely more equilibrium in the world, particularly with the rise of Asia. If anything, the future will bring about a more mult-polar globe where neither the West or Asia can really dominate each other. It'll be interesting to watch as both spheres increasingly compete for diminishing resources. |
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krnpowr
Joined: 08 Dec 2011
Location: Midwest, USA
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| Posted: Sat Mar 31, 2012 12:29 pm Post subject: |
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| But to get back on topic, I really can't perceive the demise of English as the Global language of commerce, politics, technology, and science. If anything, more so in the future than it is now. |
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luckylady
Joined: 30 Jan 2012
Location: u.s. of occupied territories
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| Posted: Sat Mar 31, 2012 7:01 pm Post subject: Re: Upcoming Demise of Western economies and finding work in |
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| GreatUnderachiever wrote: |
How well the collapse of European and American (everyone is saying it's gonna happen, probably within a few years?) economy effect the chances of getting into TEFL teaching?
I guess it will be impossible in few years , unless you have experience and/or advanced qualifications. |
not sure who "everyone" is but rather than look just at economies and how they're changing, it's also prudent to look at language histories in general and how, in fact, many languages are considered endangered or have already gone extinct in the past century.
as the world does in fact, become more global-based, many who left their own countries to make way in a new one may actually return, or their children will, thereby spreading English back to the home country. nothing goes up forever, eventually it will level off and recede, the same with English. Eventually there will be enough speakers in a country to teach the language without the need for importing "native speakers" such as in South Africa. Many children there grow up speaking Afrikanns but switch over in elementary to learn English with little or no problem in university, where English is standard. Yet there are no less than 11 official languages in S. Africa.
btw, the most frequently spoken language in China is Mandarin but as in S. Africa, there are many other languages also spoken. |
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english puppet
Joined: 04 Nov 2011
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| Posted: Sun Apr 01, 2012 2:32 am Post subject: Re: Upcoming Demise of Western economies and finding work in |
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| luckylady wrote: |
| GreatUnderachiever wrote: |
How well the collapse of European and American (everyone is saying it's gonna happen, probably within a few years?) economy effect the chances of getting into TEFL teaching?
I guess it will be impossible in few years , unless you have experience and/or advanced qualifications. |
not sure who "everyone" is but rather than look just at economies and how they're changing, it's also prudent to look at language histories in general and how, in fact, many languages are considered endangered or have already gone extinct in the past century. |
No issue with what you're saying but might add we really don't know how things will shake out maybe especially "globalization". I'm not sure we have to reach biblical (I'm not being religious about this!) level disruptions for the global scene to change. A further degradation of things in Europe or the US could set off internal conflict as people there get even more tired of working for slave like wages. The world from N. Africa all the way to Pakistan is pretty complicated. I'm not saying it will happen but it's not hard to imagine major oil disruptions or even barring that, much stiffer competition for existing resources.
I like your perspective on the history of languages though. How about a more respected and bigger player like India exporting English teachers? Possibly already happening?
I think it's too early to tell the effects but even the economic downturn in the States had quite an effect on Mexican immigration - renumerations actually reversed for a time (Money started flowing out of Mexico to relatives in the States). Mexico has a unique relationship to the US but maybe for some English lost its gloss when opportunities got scarcer to find?
As some are suggesting, interesting times.
As for ontheway - Fox News now posts on Dave's ESL?  |
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Unposter
Joined: 04 Jun 2006
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| Posted: Sun Apr 01, 2012 5:48 pm Post subject: |
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There are a number of factors that will keep English as the #1 international language in the world but one certainly is computers. Most operating systems still require English and something like 40% of all Internet content is in English.
Almost all scientific research is published in English and that is not going to change anytime soon. And, almost all science and computer textbooks are written in English.
And, it is not just the U.S. economy. England, Canada and Australia are all in the Top 10 largest economies in the world.
And, the Chinese economy has become completely intertwined with the U.S. economy - the Chinese have already bet hard on the success of the U.S. economy.
Heck, even air control throughout the world is done in English.
How many people in India speak English?
I don't see the dominance of English dying in my lifetime.
But, of course the future of native-English speaking teachers in Korea and other places is a whole other story. I am sure that will change and most likely the demand will shrink in Korea though I suspect it will continue to increase in China.
If I was a recent graduate, I would not look at this field long term unless I was willing to get properly trained, get a graduate degree and learn a second language. There will always be a handful of such people needed throughout the world.
Short term is a whole other matter, though. The Korean market could last another 10 years and I wouldn't be surprised, though no one really knows what the future holds. |
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Rocktek
Joined: 17 Dec 2009
Location: South Korea
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| Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2012 8:43 am Post subject: |
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Here's some reading material
http://www.britishcouncil.org/learning-elt-future.pdf
It's dated, but still worth a look as far as predictions go......
Not to worry, there are plenty of professional fortune tellers in Korea...... |
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ajosshi
Joined: 17 Jan 2011
Location: ajosshi.com
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| Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:13 pm Post subject: |
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| YTMND wrote: |
| Stock up on water, guns, and duct tape. This one is going to be a doozy. |
Guns will get you water and duct tape.
Btw, what's with the duct tape? |
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IncognitoHFX2
Joined: 15 Mar 2012
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| Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:17 pm Post subject: Re: Upcoming Demise of Western economies and finding work in |
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| GreatUnderachiever wrote: |
How well the collapse of European and American (everyone is saying it's gonna happen, probably within a few years?) economy effect the chances of getting into TEFL teaching?
I guess it will be impossible in few years , unless you have experience and/or advanced qualifications. |
If this happens, finding a stable ESL job would be the least of your worries
I think that if Western economies collapsed, the Korean economy would be in such a shock that people wouldn't want to keep investing in studying English... |
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YTMND
Joined: 16 Jan 2012
Location: You're the man now dog!!
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| Posted: Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:45 pm Post subject: |
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| ajosshi wrote: |
| YTMND wrote: |
| Stock up on water, guns, and duct tape. This one is going to be a doozy. |
Guns will get you water and duct tape.
Btw, what's with the duct tape? |
You mean why duct tape? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duct_tape_alert
"The duct tape alert refers to the recommendations made by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on February 10, 2003, that Americans should prepare for a biological, chemical, or radiological terrorist attack by assembling a "disaster supply kit", including duct tape and plastic (presumably to attempt to seal one's home against nuclear, chemical, and biological contaminants), among other items."
By the way, it's hard to aim when you are dehydrated. |
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english puppet
Joined: 04 Nov 2011
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| Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2012 8:58 pm Post subject: |
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A really nice post by the way. The reading material is really worth looking at for any of us. No simple formula for predicting things but lots to think about. |
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