Korean Job Discussion Forums

[rollo]

Not to get to argumentative but one of the reasons for the withdrawal of the Japanese from Korea was that the Koreans were starting to win.

Japan absolutely devastated korea, Killed hundreds of thousands, fought the chinese to a stalemate. But the Koreans never quit, actually won a couple of battles, started to develop tactics that stymied the Japanese. Of course admiral Yi's victorys with the turtle ships

just wanted to give credit to the stubborn tough koreans. But yeah Hideyoshi was the driving force behind the invasion and his death ended it.

[jvalmer]

[rollo]

Well yes if we had just allowed the Soviets to swallow Korea then take Japan there would not have been a Korean war. Everything would have been just tickyboo.

Vietnam okay we did not start it. Stupid decisions by U.s. preidents but China and russia were also involved up to their eyebrows.

The main thing the U.S. has done in North Asia has been to keep an arms race from happening but that is ending now. Japanese and Chinese expanding their forces. Russia has bulked up in Siberia and may send more forces there this year.
The U.S presence has led to a long era of peace in the region and that may be ending.
The koreas in a rocket race and Kim wanting another nuclear test while Russia , China, and Japan are building up forces. Ominous

i was chatting with a German friend a couple of nights ago and he said something like' " Well the leftist are going to get what they want, a decrease in U.S. military spending, they are aloso going to get a war"

[comm]

[rollo]

yes i agree a golden age indeed.

Verdun and the battle of the Somme were just picnics.

The rape of Nanjing just playful boys.

Oh nostalgia for the good old days.

yes i got your sarcasm!

[catman]

If China cuts off NK I dread to think how severe the starvation would be.

[rollo]

They would not only have no food but China supplies nost of the North"s energy needs, a totlal collapse.

Back on topic; the North has always and still has a "get out of jail free card' neither China nor Russia would tolerate an invasion by a ROK/U.S. force. But what might be tolerated and this is what I think China is angling for, is that the North becomes a semi autonomous province of China. That is if Russia will allow it.
That and a reduced U.S. presence in the South is what Japan fears. Dangerous stuff. never underestimate japan, after the" opening up" they out manipulated Great Britain, the U.S Russia and France and Russia which had just conquered most of the Islamic regions of Asia was keen to swallow up Japan but japan stayed independent and later defeated Russia in a war, using Korea as their main base of operation. later from the same korean base they almost conquered China.

this thread became too U.S.-centric. the other players are as important.

Also I want to write that the age of peace we have enjoyed since wwII was not just due to the U.S. but to the idea of a grand council of Britain, Russia, China, France and the U.S. operating through the U.N. using the U.S. as a globlal policeman. The last 68 years have been one of the most peacful periods in the last two thousand.

[Nowhere Man]

My analysis with a great deal of speculation:

1) War is in no one's interest, except possibly the NK wildcard. My greatest fear when KJI was diagnosed terminal was that he would hit the red button since he was already on his way out. I'm terribly bummed to see the new regime doing this. Could it be KJU showing internally that he's no pansy? Or, IOW, is it a sign of an internal power struggle?

2) NK could possibly hit Guam or Hawaii, but they have to know the consequences there. Let's hope MAD holds.

3) Two countries not in the nuke club who could very quickly change their tune are SK and Japan. Both almost certainly have nuke capabilities, but haven't played the card in the name of stability.

4) Any serious threat by NK would likely be met with a massive stealth/cruise missile strike on the North side of the DMZ (to kill the artillery that can hit Seoul and hit hard large troop concentrations there).

5) The result of 4 might hopefully be a Gulf War I outcome. Without proper comm, the actions of individual NK units is a huge question.

6) NK HAS been an important buffer zone to the PRC, but is it still that important? I could see China claiming it as a territory but not absorbing it. I could see it as a territory until SK sues to reunite its country. The Koreans and the Chinese have common cause vis a vis Japan, and it would give China massive face to yield the Peninsula, which they do not consider part of their territory, not to mention foregoing MASSIVE confrontational issues with SK, the US, and the international community.

7) Island squabbles aside, East Asia's primary threat to stability is the Kim regime.

Without wishing anyone to the devil, I simply hope for the best.

[nautilus]

[rollo]

Something that Mr. Huntsman the former U.S. ambassador to China said. "They are not used to being part of the global scheme, sometimes you have to walk them through it". i think he is right, After decades of isolation and little power they are just learning how to be responsible players on the global stage. This might be an example of that.

Kim needs to remember who his master is.

Both China and Russia know that the U.S. would react in a drastic manner if they attepted to attack South Korea or Japan.