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If the U.S. military were to pull out of the ROK, I'd...
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| If the U.S. military were to pull out of the ROK, I'd... |
| Drop everything and get the next plane out myself. |
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14% |
[ 8 ] |
| Prepare for a slow but orderly withdrawal soon. |
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17% |
[ 10 ] |
| Stay, but would move to Busan |
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3% |
[ 2 ] |
| Stay, but be much more ready to evacuate. |
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7% |
[ 4 ] |
| Stay, nothing would change. |
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52% |
[ 30 ] |
| Stay, but move to Paju for front row seats. |
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5% |
[ 3 ] |
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| Total Votes : 57 |
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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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 Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 3:58 am Post subject: |
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| World Traveler wrote: |
| Steelrails wrote: |
| As for being able to 'flatten Seoul', I think people over-estimate the capability of NK to perform this, the effectiveness of bombardments and how long an army is able to sustain them. In order to accomplish this, NK would have to basically move every artillery piece it had in range of Seoul, something that would not go undetected and would not be allowed to happen as SK would preemptively strike, and be allowed to do so under international law while still claiming it was 'defending' itself. |
Except the stuff is already at the DMZ and pointed straight at Seoul. Have you seen the distance from the DMZ to Seoul on a map? It's short.
| Quote: |
| There are thousands of hardened underground bunkers close to the front line, and North Korean artillery will carry out "shoot and scoot" attacks, emerging briefly to fire and withdrawing rapidly. According to a RAND study, a multiple rocket launcher can be back under cover within 75 seconds of firing. |
Did you know there are 13,000 artillery pieces positioned along the border?
| Quote: |
| Its conventional artillery capability would allow North Korea to flatten Seoul in the first half-hour of any confrontation. The human cost of going to war may too prohibitive in this instance. Instead, the hawks want to isolate North Korea and force its collapse through sanctions. |
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,446776,00.html |
Don't believe everything you read. Anyone who has half a bit of knowledge regarding military capabilities knows that that's a crock of crap put out by Defense circles to justify military spending.
But go ahead and believe some 2-bit journalist if you want to.
http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/news/north-korea-and-flattening-seoul |
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EZE
Joined: 05 May 2012
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| Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 6:10 am Post subject: |
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| sluggo832004 wrote: |
who would have thought Rodman of all people would be such an ambassador? haha
"All he wants is a phone call." hahahaha |
Where did the "Freakiest Waygook Contest" thread go? I can't find it. It looks like Rodman came to Korea too late for the game. |
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coralreefer_1
Joined: 19 Jan 2009
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| Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 7:43 am Post subject: |
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| Steelrails wrote: |
| World Traveler wrote: |
| Steelrails wrote: |
| As for being able to 'flatten Seoul', I think people over-estimate the capability of NK to perform this, the effectiveness of bombardments and how long an army is able to sustain them. In order to accomplish this, NK would have to basically move every artillery piece it had in range of Seoul, something that would not go undetected and would not be allowed to happen as SK would preemptively strike, and be allowed to do so under international law while still claiming it was 'defending' itself. |
Except the stuff is already at the DMZ and pointed straight at Seoul. Have you seen the distance from the DMZ to Seoul on a map? It's short.
| Quote: |
| There are thousands of hardened underground bunkers close to the front line, and North Korean artillery will carry out "shoot and scoot" attacks, emerging briefly to fire and withdrawing rapidly. According to a RAND study, a multiple rocket launcher can be back under cover within 75 seconds of firing. |
Did you know there are 13,000 artillery pieces positioned along the border?
| Quote: |
| Its conventional artillery capability would allow North Korea to flatten Seoul in the first half-hour of any confrontation. The human cost of going to war may too prohibitive in this instance. Instead, the hawks want to isolate North Korea and force its collapse through sanctions. |
http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,446776,00.html |
Don't believe everything you read. Anyone who has half a bit of knowledge regarding military capabilities knows that that's a crock of crap put out by Defense circles to justify military spending.
But go ahead and believe some 2-bit journalist if you want to.
http://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/military/news/north-korea-and-flattening-seoul |
condemning one writer as a "two-bit journalist" while linking an article by yet another two-bit journalist.We just cant make this kind of comedy up~
The only difference are the dates..one from 2003, and the mine is better than yours article from 2010.
Frankly I prefer to believe the real experts..the ones who are actually privy to negotiations between the countries..the ones manning spy satellites and taking in on the ground intel from defectors. Those people don't write magazine articles, they get debriefed by the Men in Black types who feed the media nothing more than necessary, and far more distortion than fact.
That said, NK will never attack large scale like some seem to worry. Crazy man with a big gun...yes. Suicidal man with a big gun...no. As we all have come to the conclusion, power is the name of the game...power than means nothing when exercising such power beyond your own borders essentially means utter destruction. The Kims will never endanger losing that power. Many think the leaders up there are crazy and weird, but actually they are very skilled at getting what they want, International attention...concessions to stop said crazy behavior...etc etc.
As far as the US Army leaving Korea, I would applaud such an action for many reasons, but mostly because I am tired of hearing the ESL community lay blame or otherwise complain on US soldiers for this or that. Yeah a few soldiers get drunk and act afoul...some even commit crimes, cockblock or otherwise take all the ladies at your favorite low-end bar...etc etc. That said, the air of resentment toward the ESL community by Koreans some have a raging hard-on to discuss to no end (will the guy over at Gusts of a Popular Feeling EVER stop writing about the whole Anti-English spectrum incident from almost 10 years ago???) is much more a result of ESL community incidents rather than douche soldiers in Itewon picking fights and getting drunk.
US forces will never leave Korea so long as the government want them here. It should be no secret that even democratically-run countries have little interest in what the people actually want other than elections. Although the general consensus among Koreans may be wanting US operations out, even with some politicians pandering to the masses expressing the same sentiment...behind closed doors the Korean government practically BEGS the US military to stay here. |
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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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| Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 8:40 am Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
Frankly I prefer to believe the real experts..the ones who are actually privy to negotiations between the countries..the ones manning spy satellites and taking in on the ground intel from defectors. Those people don't write magazine articles, they get debriefed by the Men in Black types who feed the media nothing more than necessary, and far more distortion than fact.
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Frankly I choose to believe logistics, physics, and 500 years of military history.
Men in Black? Seriously? Do you really believe that the Norks entire artillery strength can magically appear out of thin air, operate with impunity, and defy 100 years of results of bombardments?
You do realize that the "Men in Black" are the ones putting out your crap articles that panic people into fear, right?
You do realize that the foundation of military operations, strategy, tactics, and so on is logistics, not numbers on paper, right?
Are you one of those people who believes that the North Korean Army strength of 1 million means 1 million infantry with AKs? You do realize that most of those are support troops, right? You do know that modern military science dictates that for a conventional army you need roughly 10 support troops for every front line soldier, right?
Like I said, some people believe in '1 million men with AKs sprinting over mountains against fortified pre-sighte positions alongside tanks and jeeps, guns a blazing.' You do realize that 'Nork Artillery Flattens Seoul in 30 Minutes' is the same version of that fantasy, right?
Do you even understand the terms 'Counter-battery fire?' Do you understand the utter stupidity of wasting your ordinance bombarding a Missha instead of against an enemy's army? Do you understand how ineffective bombardments are?
Since you believe your 'experts' so much. Please lay out an operational timetable and fully explain in complete detail the logistics of NK 'Flattening Seoul'. Show how the details of how the guns are deployed, what positions to take, how they are supplied, how they are manned, how their crews are fed, how their targets are sighted, how they deploy without being detected, how they have the trucks to put their crews into place, how they work in coordination with the 'Million Man AK Sprint' across mine-laden grounds of the DMZ. Please, do tell.
Show me some Herman Haupt. |
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coralreefer_1
Joined: 19 Jan 2009
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| Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 9:21 am Post subject: |
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No..I am one of the people who believe that little article writers for this or that media outlet have no more understanding of capability. All of them are basing their assessment on the most reliable sources...US intelligence.
And sorry Steelrails...although I respect you as a senior contributing member of this forum...I refuse do do the groundwork to defend my comments. I don't care enough about validation from you or anyone else enough to do so. I simply called YOU out for insulting some other posters article by some two bit journalist by posting your own two-bit journalist's article. My point of interest in the matter ends there..despite your need to defend yourself.
You ask me to show evidence without providing your own? You link a crap article by some technology writer who writes on far flung subjects which have nothing to do with NK, International relations, capabilities...etc..and yet ask me to do footwork to back up my comments? LOL. As I said..i dont care enough to do so. If you choose to believe that lowly writers of articles are more informed about real capabilities of a rouge regime than those who actually deal with them, process the latest CLASSIFIED intelligence, and issue the same watered-down reports writers such as those mentioned in BOTH articles draw info from..more power to you. |
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coralreefer_1
Joined: 19 Jan 2009
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| Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 9:27 am Post subject: |
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As a side note...despite your assumptions, i am of a similar opinion as you seem to be...that the NK threat is bloated compared to real capacity in a wartime environment when guns are actually being used, tanks are actually moving, batteries are actually being fired...etc. I see little to no sustained threat at all, but again...i never mentioned or touched on it.
I spoke of the irony of YOUR post beforehand, and on the Korean governments interest in keeping US forces here....not on the fabricated or real threat of NK capability. I know its late...but still...try to read before you respond |
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EZE
Joined: 05 May 2012
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| Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 10:55 am Post subject: |
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I don't believe there's a significant risk of an attack by the North Koreans with or without the presence of the US military. If I did, I certainly wouldn't be here.
However, I don't think we can laugh at 1960s Soviet era weapons when we can turn on the news each evening and see small groups of militia with 1940s Soviet era rifles and homemade bombs persistently hanging in against several combined large western militaries equipped with the most advanced 21st century weapons technology. Also, the Vietnamese did ultimately win their war, so hopefully we can find a better example of South Korean and US military invincibility. I'm not saying we wouldn't win against the North Koreans. I'm just saying we shouldn't ignore history and the present or twist examples of failure into examples of success. |
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JustinC
Joined: 10 Mar 2012
Location: We Are The World!
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| Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 3:28 pm Post subject: |
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Heh, you said do do, heh heh.
Steelrails you are, intelligently, objecting to the idea of a Nork invasion so much that you have me worried.
*The first casualty when war comes...* |
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TheUrbanMyth
Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired
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| Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 4:46 pm Post subject: |
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| EZE wrote: |
I don't believe there's a significant risk of an attack by the North Koreans with or without the presence of the US military. If I did, I certainly wouldn't be here.
However, I don't think we can laugh at 1960s Soviet era weapons when we can turn on the news each evening and see small groups of militia with 1940s Soviet era rifles and homemade bombs persistently hanging in against several combined large western militaries equipped with the most advanced 21st century weapons technology. . |
These "groups" are insurgents hiding within the local population. NOT an invading force. Apples and oranges. An invading force armed with 1960's Soviet era weapons is going to be destroyed when the opposing force is much better armed and equipped. Much like what happened to Iraq's conventional forces.
A million man army just isn't going to be able to hit and run like a few insurgents can. They neither have the mobility nor the logistics. They will have to meet conventionally...and that is where the superior technology of the South will come into play. |
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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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| Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 5:02 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| All of them are basing their assessment on the most reliable sources...US intelligence. |
That's like saying reporters who cover politics are basing their assesments on the most reliable sources- lobbyists and congressmen.
You do realize that people make 3-Star General is how they do in inter-Pentagon budget wars, right? You do realize that defense companies and military officials put out these stories to justify defense spending and to bamboozle ignorant Congressmen into approving spending on certain programs, right?
To paraphrase Thomas PM Barnett, "You go into their office and start hitting em with terms like Anti-Access, Area Denial Strategies and their eyes glaze over and they say 'Will you build it in my district?' "
| Quote: |
| alled YOU out for insulting some other posters article by some two bit journalist by posting your own two-bit journalist's article |
This isn't a case of "both articles are equal", this is case of fundamentally misunderstanding something. It's like someone citing an article about how we should just build 1000 wind turbines in some area and have plenty of clean power lickity split because 1000 wind turbines will = 1 million megawatts of power and me citing an article that explains how the land happens to be on a Native American reservation, the weather patterns aren't appropriate, the costs involved and the fact that the company is currently under investigation for fraud and is likely to have its assets seized.
| Quote: |
| You ask me to show evidence without providing your own? You link a crap article by some technology writer who writes on far flung subjects which have nothing to do with NK, International relations, capabilities...etc..and yet ask me to do footwork to back up my comments? LOL. As I said..i dont care enough to do so. If you choose to believe that lowly writers of articles are more informed about real capabilities of a rouge regime than those who actually deal with them, process the latest CLASSIFIED intelligence, and issue the same watered-down reports writers such as those mentioned in BOTH articles draw info from..more power to you. |
Dude, I already did site about 20 reasons why the claim of NK Artillery can flatten Seoul is complete and utter crap running the gamut from The dubious strategic and tactical value in doing so to the sheer physical impossibility of doing so.
The reason people put those things into articles is to whip up people's fear and frame an issue. It's like saying "If we took all the money we spend on the military and instead spend it on food, we could cure hunger". That's ignoring the logistics of the situation. We tried to feed Somalia, guess what happened? A bunch of warlords raided the food so we had to send in the military.
| Quote: |
| However, I don't think we can laugh at 1960s Soviet era weapons when we can turn on the news each evening and see small groups of militia with 1940s Soviet era rifles and homemade bombs persistently hanging in against several combined large western militaries equipped with the most advanced 21st century weapons technology. Also, the Vietnamese did ultimately win their war, so hopefully we can find a better example of South Korean and US military invincibility. I'm not saying we wouldn't win against the North Koreans. I'm just saying we shouldn't ignore history and the present or twist examples of failure into examples of success. |
There is a massive difference between COIN operations and a full scale conventional war. Remember, in those conflicts the US was/is simultaneously going about the task of nation building and "winning the hearts and minds". It is highly doubtful that if KJE were to declare full on war that SK would have to deal with guerrilla bands and warlords running rampant behind the lines.
If you cannot recognize the fundamental difference in operations, strategic goals, disposition of forces, makeup of combatants, and so on between a conflict like Afghanistan or Vietnam and a conventional war between NK and SK, then you really should pipe down, stop spreading fear, and go and read some books.
War isn't some video game. You don't just send a million men screaming over the border. You don't just move your artillery units to the next hex away from Seoul and order them to fire and watch them do 1000 pts of damage to the city and waltz in. |
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rainman3277
Joined: 13 Sep 2009
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| Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 5:53 pm Post subject: |
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| Ever notice the people who are the most opinionated on these types of subjects are the least likely to use "in my opinion" during their ramblings. Should get them a job in the military. Solve all our worries |
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young_clinton
Joined: 09 Sep 2009
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| Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 5:55 pm Post subject: |
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| Find the closest air raid facilities where I work in case the North starts sending shells over. Other than that South Korea would kick North Korea's ass if it invaded. |
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big_fella1
Joined: 08 Dec 2005
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| Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 6:21 pm Post subject: |
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I'm in Masan and I didn't vote because my option isn't there.
On my daily morning walk I would go via the fishing boats dropping off bottles of soju with each captain. Should me and the family need to make a quick withdrawal I'm sure they would remember the crazy foreigner that brought them soju every morning, and Japan is pretty close to here. |
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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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| Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 6:33 pm Post subject: |
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| rainman3277 wrote: |
| Ever notice the people who are the most opinionated on these types of subjects are the least likely to use "in my opinion" during their ramblings. Should get them a job in the military. Solve all our worries |
Dude, this isn't really opinion, it's military science. You can't just send a million men trampling through.
It's basically like a scientist arguing with some cartoonist who drew a T-Rex standing upright and telling him that that is physically and anatomically impossible and the cartoonist insisting his drawing is scientifically accurate because another scientist, who is simply financing his cartoons for financial gain, gave him the thumbs up. At the same time, the scientist understands it's okay to draw unrealistic dinosaurs for cartoons, but the cartoonist is claiming they are scientific and should be used to teach others.
People here are claiming things that are outside the bounds of rational military science. They lack the expertise to filter what is spewed at them and the critical thinking skills necessary to analyze the claims and data.
Look up the term 'Million Man Swim'. For 50 years, we gave money and arms to the people of Taiwan while telling everyone back home that Big Bad China was ready to invade with a million man army (sound familiar?) and Taiwan needed all these weapons. Of course anyone with half a brain and knowledge of the military situation knew the whole thing was a joke because China utterly lacked the capability to carry out a total amphibious invasion. The term 'Million Man Swim' was created as an inside joke between those in the know and separate themselves from the talking parrots.
Nork Artillery Can Flatten Seoul in 2 hours = Million Man Swim.
If you actually believe that you make yourself sound as much as an idiot as someone who claimed China would invade Taiwan back in the 80s-90s. Like someone claiming to know stuff about cars and saying DOHC stands for Double Oxygen Horsepower Crank instead of Dual Overhead Cams. Like someone talking about gun control and calling a Remington 870 12 gauge shotgun an 'Automatic Assault Rifle'. Like saying you're an expert on baseball and claiming that the DH is the most important position. Like men giving advice to women on cosmetics and saying they should just go get their stuff at the 99 cent store and slap it on.
I'm really trying to get people to understand how utterly ridiculous a lot of the fear-mongering is that gets put out there regarding NK. |
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World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
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| Posted: Tue Mar 05, 2013 6:49 pm Post subject: |
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| Steelrails wrote: |
Look up the term 'Million Man Swim'. For 50 years, we gave money and arms to the people of Taiwan while telling everyone back home that Big Bad China was ready to invade with a million man army (sound familiar?) and Taiwan needed all these weapons. Of course anyone with half a brain and knowledge of the military situation knew the whole thing was a joke because China utterly lacked the capability to carry out a total amphibious invasion. The term 'Million Man Swim' was created as an inside joke between those in the know and separate themselves from the talking parrots.
Nork Artillery Can Flatten Seoul in 2 hours = Million Man Swim.
If you actually believe that you make yourself sound as much as an idiot as someone who claimed China would invade Taiwan back in the 80s-90s. |
Deterrence my friend. China didn't invade 50 years ago (or more recently) because of the United States gave the weapons and hence lessened the likelihood of something bad happening.
Time Magazine said 30 minutes, not two hours (and of course North Korea has been continually upgrading to better weapons).
Even the link you provided said:
| Quote: |
| That North Korea and its astonishing array of artillery poses a significant threat to Seoul is obvious. |
Do you believe that?
http://thedignifiedrant.blogspot.kr/2009/11/about-that-million-man-swim.html |
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