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fermentation
Joined: 22 Jun 2009
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 Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 1:23 am Post subject: |
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All you have to do is look at the history of how the Japanese responded to the Norks. They have conducted exercises and made plans to respond before.
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| The idea that the Japanese are strong militarily is quit odd considering that they have done nothing of significance since the late 1940s |
Just examine their weapons systems and the amount of money they put into defense. They haven't conducted combat operations since WW2 but neither have the Germans until Afghanistan. And the germans are performing well there. The Japanese also hold regular exercises with American forces. |
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Died By Bear
Joined: 13 Jul 2010
Location: On the big lake they call Gitche Gumee
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| Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 2:17 am Post subject: |
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| FMPJ wrote: |
http://www.yhchang.com/OPERATION_NUKOREA.html
(enable sound) |
Best part imo is that part about how the rats FEAST on the ROTTING FLESH...hehehehe |
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everything-is-everything
Joined: 06 Jun 2011
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| Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 3:37 am Post subject: |
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| fermentation wrote: |
All you have to do is look at the history of how the Japanese responded to the Norks. They have conducted exercises and made plans to respond before.
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| The idea that the Japanese are strong militarily is quit odd considering that they have done nothing of significance since the late 1940s |
Just examine their weapons systems and the amount of money they put into defense. They haven't conducted combat operations since WW2 but neither have the Germans until Afghanistan. And the germans are performing well there. The Japanese also hold regular exercises with American forces. |
To compare German small scale defense and renascence to potential state warfare doesn't really help your argument IMO.
Yes the Japanese have the toys, but (a) do they have the experience using them? - no (b) do they have the political will and regional alliance to respond properly? - I don't think so.
Can you imagine of the North Koreans sent a missile into a Japanese city?
How would the Japanese respond exactly?
A tactical strike on North Korean defensive areas? Kim Il-sung statues? A North Korean city?
And even if the Japanese retaliated, what would the reaction be like in China and even more, what would the reaction be like in South Korea?
The Japanese wouldn't have any regional support for a retaliation. They would from the much of the UN, but not from their neighbors. This would make things very dicey. |
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fermentation
Joined: 22 Jun 2009
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| Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 8:51 am Post subject: |
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Well, using that logic, the NK should never be able to hit a Japanese city since they never have fired a live missile at another city before.
The Japanese didn't have experience using aircraft carriers in massive attacks before pearl harbor. The Germans never had experience using tightly coordinated blitzkrieg operations before WWII. But they did so very successfully.
It's because they had a working strategic and operational doctrine that was aligned with their capabilities. I don't see why the Japanese now wouldn't. If you want to talk about experience, China, NK, and the ROK haven't had experience in conducting major scale state warfare since the Korean war.
I suspect they would respond (as they have planned to in the past) with air strikes at NK missile installations. I don't see why they wouldn't have regional support to retaliate in such a manner. An NK attack on Japan would cause the ROK to scramble for defenses against the North. If NK attacked Japan, we would be first worried about them attacking us next, not whether or not if we felt okay with the Japanese responding.
If you were thinking about a full scale Japanese invasion, that's another matter. They wouldn't have the political support and I doubt they would respond with one. They don't have the manpower to launch a full scale invasion by themselves anyway. |
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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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| Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 4:50 pm Post subject: |
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It all depends on the scale of the attack. Certain ones the Japanese might take on the chin. Others, they might blast off a few cruise missiles or shell an island or maybe a single air strike, but not a full-scale action. If they did something rather significant, Japan might launch a week-long campaign of strikes.
But a full-scale war? Rather unlikely unless North Korea used a WMD or did some kind of terrorist incident that was REALLY bad. But then it would be a US-led action and likely feature a coalition of forces, yes, perhaps even including China (or at least China's non-participation).
I all depends on the type, scale, and success of the attack.
A complete guesstimate with nothing to base this on (numbers pulled out of my rear) makes me think (note the response can vary with the method of death. 300 in a single airline bombing might not be as provoking as 150 killed in a series of strikes against Japanese shipping or the use of a chemical weapon in a terrorist attack)-
<50 dead- Japan probable eats it ala Korea and the Cheonan, though with the escalation of everything that might not be the case.
50~200- Some sort of retaliation. Likely confined to a single operation, or perhaps several lasting a day or two.
200-1000- A serious campaign lasting a week or so. A dozen or dozens of targets involved.
1,000-2,000- Probably an extended campaign of air strikes and naval action, likely with US assistance.
2,000+ Probably would move into the area of regime change and an international coalition type-affair.
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| The idea that the Japanese are strong militarily is quit odd considering that they have done nothing of significance since the late 1940s. |
Their equipment is quite capable. Their forces are professional.
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The nation is still divided politically and the pacifist tone has left the Japanese people neutered.
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Well if we're going to throw out 1940s history, I think the Japanese know quite well about attacking a divided nation with a strong pacifist tone, and how that that might not exploit the weaknesses one thinks.
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| I believe the majority of Chinese and South Koreans would actually support it and secretly cheer the North Koreans for enacting revenge |
Not necessarily. Remember the tsunami? I was in a crowded restaurant when it happened and the look on everyone's faces was hardly one of gloating and glee. It was one of horror and sympathy. people weren't high-fiving each other and cheering with soju. The place was rather quiet for such a packed house.
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| The Japanese wouldn't have any regional support for a retaliation. They would from the much of the UN, but not from their neighbors |
I don't think this is quite at an Israel-type level. A surprise attack, at this current phase in the ongoing war of words, would certainly force even China to condemn their actions. The failure to do so would have too great a consequence diplomatically. It would be seen as an attack by proxy by China, if they failed to do so. I don't think China would want that now. Also, unlike Israel, Japan is so linked to the economies of China, Korea, and Russia (to say nothing of the US), that despite their bickering over islands, the links that bind them are rather strong. |
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hellofaniceguy
Joined: 10 Jan 2003
Location: On your computer screen!
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| Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 6:38 pm Post subject: |
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| silkhighway wrote: |
On these hypotheticals, what if N. Korea attacked attacked an American ship in a manner similar to the Cheonan incident? How would America respond? Could N. Korea carry out the attack in such a way that divides South Koreans and Americans and even going a step further, enables the radical left wing in South Korea to help defend N. Korea if it escalated to a full-out war scenario? In other words, creating a true civil war on the peninsula?
Mr. Kim, if you are following Dave's ESL, please don't get any ideas. |
Come on guys!! The south koreans...and I live here and have respect for them...but the south koreans as a whole....can't fight a sustained battle...they give up quickly for one thing...and secondly....NK just did some serious damage a few years back..remember the widespread damage on the island, killing four south koreans and injuring 19 on Yeonpyeong Island. What did SK do? Fire a few shots back and that was it!
NK over the years has killed a number of south koreans for various reasons and sk let's it go! They don't fight! But yet...they do a lot of fighting among themselves! |
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Zyzyfer
Joined: 29 Jan 2003
Location: who, what, where, when, why, how?
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| Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 8:28 pm Post subject: |
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| everything-is-everything wrote: |
| Can you imagine of the North Koreans sent a missile into a Japanese city? |
link - About recent deployment of Tokyo-based missile defense systems
link - About Japan's reaction, etc., last time North Korea shot a missile in its general direction
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| In 2009, North Korea fired a Taepondong-2 missile over northern Japan resulting in new U.N. Security Council sanctions. These penalties were lumped on top of heavy unilateral sanctions from Tokyo � as well as previous Security Council sanctions � which were already in place after the North�s nuclear weapons test in 2006. In 2009, Japan threatened that it might try to intercept the missile if it crossed Japanese airspace (which it did � over two prefectures in the north). However, no action was taken at the time, with Japan relying on its diplomatic sticks, via sanctions, rather than provoking the North with force. |
I don't see North Korea shooting a missile at a Japanese city as being a particularly divisive move. The missile will more than likely be intercepted and brought down, no? Japan and the US get along just fine, and Japan will play ball with China's sentiments regarding retaliation so long as no Japanese lives are lost. Don't see how South Korea's relations with Japan come into play.
So it's basically China's call. And if China wants relative stability then they would go along, I'd imagine.
Last edited by Zyzyfer on Mon Apr 08, 2013 8:34 pm; edited 2 times in total |
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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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| Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 8:29 pm Post subject: |
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| hellofaniceguy wrote: |
Come on guys!! The south koreans...and I live here and have respect for them...but the south koreans as a whole....can't fight a sustained battle...they give up quickly for one thing...and secondly....NK just did some serious damage a few years back..remember the widespread damage on the island, killing four south koreans and injuring 19 on Yeonpyeong Island. What did SK do? Fire a few shots back and that was it!
NK over the years has killed a number of south koreans for various reasons and sk let's it go! They don't fight! But yet...they do a lot of fighting among themselves! |
Are you familiar with the combat record of S.Korean troops in Vietnam?
Second, your analysis totally ignores the political aspects and cost-benefit of the whole relationship. You're basically wondering why Korea doesn't drain a pond behind its house because it got bitten by a mosquito. |
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hiamnotcool
Joined: 06 Feb 2012
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| Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 8:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Alright, so NK attacks Japan. USA and Japan both mercilessly bomb N Korea while South Korea just sits back and watches. After the USA and Japan are done with N Korea, South Korea can act as the middle man to call for an end to the war and a peace agreement, then they can move in to start the whole reunifying thing. Japan and the USA stay out of that mess, and as a result the chances of a prolonged insurgency within North Korea are far less. Now all Koreans can still hate Japan and the USA and N Koreans can view South Koreans as the people that saved them from the Japanese and the Yankees. All of us ESL people can leave and Korea can finally get back to learning Chinese. Maybe Kim Jong Eun would do it just to take one for the team. |
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everything-is-everything
Joined: 06 Jun 2011
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| Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 10:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Steelrails wrote: |
Are you familiar with the combat record of S.Korean troops in Vietnam?
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I don't know why you continue to bring up this point (you've said this on other threads) about the S. Korean troops in Vietnam?
How does essentially acting like mercenaries in small units comparable to a full scale military response?
The North Koreans in the past few years have sunk one of South Korea's battleships and bombed its territory.
And what was the South Korean response? Sanctions.
Hell, they didn't even close down their involvement in Kaesong! And as a result continued to funnel in money to the same regime that attacked them.
It's absolutely astounding!
I can't think of any other country in the world that would respond like this. I mean I do somewhat understand as South Koreans don't want to loose the quality of life they currently enjoy. And a response and possible escalation towards the North would seriously mess this up.
But so far I haven't seen any military, political or public will to really take care of the situation. i.e. Regime change in North Korea followed by a colonial like development of the North by the South Korean government as well as South Korean industry and even social/religious organizations. |
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Privateer
Joined: 31 Aug 2005
Location: Easy Street.
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| Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 10:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Swampfox10mm wrote: |
My Korean coworkers told me they are more scared of Japan than North Korea. Odd, eh?
If NK hit Japan, it would likely cause a push for more armed forces in Japan, which would unnerve basically everyone.... especially China. |
With America around, I don't see why they're scared of Japan. Did you ask them why? If America withdrew its forces (and didn't decide to come back in after things got hot, the way it did in the Korean War) ... I could see why they'd be worried. Any country unlucky enough to be Japan's neighbour would be worried.
You might not want to click on this link (extreme Japanese nationalist ranting), if you're at work. |
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everything-is-everything
Joined: 06 Jun 2011
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| Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 10:45 pm Post subject: |
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| Privateer wrote: |
| Swampfox10mm wrote: |
My Korean coworkers told me they are more scared of Japan than North Korea. Odd, eh?
If NK hit Japan, it would likely cause a push for more armed forces in Japan, which would unnerve basically everyone.... especially China. |
With America around, I don't see why they're scared of Japan. Did you ask them why? If America withdrew its forces (and didn't decide to come back in after things got hot, the way it did in the Korean War) ... I could see why they'd be worried. Any country unlucky enough to be Japan's neighbour would be worried.
You might not want to click on this link (extreme Japanese nationalist ranting), if you're at work. |
If the Americans left I think the North Koreans, South Koreans and Chinese would be more of a problem in terms of regional instability than the Japanese.
But your point about the problematic idea of Japanese nationalist tensions rising is fair. |
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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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| Posted: Mon Apr 08, 2013 11:01 pm Post subject: |
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I don't know why you continue to bring up this point (you've said this on other threads) about the S. Korean troops in Vietnam?
How does essentially acting like mercenaries in small units comparable to a full scale military response?
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You need to read your history.
300,000 troops total served there, incurring 5,000 dead. Peak strength consisted of two divisions. That's a big footprint. They had their own area of operations, had a very good combat record, and were considered the best at COIN operations in amongst the anti-communist forces.
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| The North Koreans in the past few years have sunk one of South Korea's battleships |
Epic fail for referring to the Cheonan as a "battleship".
You don't even know what a battleship is or what kind of ship the Cheonan was. Go read a book before pontificating
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| And what was the South Korean response? Sanctions. |
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I can't think of any other country in the world that would respond like this. I mean I do somewhat understand as South Koreans don't want to loose the quality of life they currently enjoy. And a response and possible escalation towards the North would seriously mess this up.
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You mean like seeing installation after installation getting hit in terrorist attacks and at most firing off a couple of dozen missiles?
Nope, can't think of any country that would get attacked time after time and basically do nothing. Not a country in the world....
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| Regime change in North Korea followed by a colonial like development of the North by the South Korean government as well as South Korean industry and even social/religious organizations. |
They are there, but of course one has to wonder- Why engage in war when there is a fair chance that the regime will eventually crack without outside action? |
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rollo
Joined: 10 May 2006
Location: China
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| Posted: Tue Apr 09, 2013 2:46 am Post subject: |
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Japan is extremely well armed and they are a most capable people and I am sure they have contingency plans made if the N.K were to attack them
As far as the U.s. leaving the area, read the history of North Asia, and it will explain why the U.S. presence is welcomed by everyone including China. Well maybe the Norks dont want the U.s. but they really don't count. WAR after war, most conflicts centering around Korea. |
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everything-is-everything
Joined: 06 Jun 2011
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| Posted: Tue Apr 09, 2013 3:32 am Post subject: |
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| Steelrails wrote: |
You need to read your history.
300,000 troops total served there, incurring 5,000 dead. Peak strength consisted of two divisions. That's a big footprint. They had their own area of operations, had a very good combat record, and were considered the best at COIN operations in amongst the anti-communist forces. |
This happened 40 years ago. It was a different army and different mind set.
Look, South Korea was attacked twice in the past few years and the response was pathetic. Perhaps it was the best response, but it still made South Korea look weak.
Look at the protests against Dokdo and Mad Cow in South Korea. And compare them to the reactions against far worse activities carried out by North Korea against the South?
The South Koreans may be playing the long game here and be waiting for collapse by the North like you said. But in the meantime I wish the South Korean government/media/public would just stop with the Dokdo/Sea of Japan/Comfort Women issues and focus on the real issue here.
This is why I don't take South Koreans seriously and am extremely pessimistic about their military preparedness.
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Epic fail for referring to the Cheonan as a "battleship" |
I don't know about "epic". But a wrong choice of words on my part. I stand corrected.
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| Cheonan was launched in November 1989 from Hyundai Heavy Industries, Ulsan, South Korea.[11] The ship's primary mission was coastal patrol, with an emphasis on anti-submarine operations.[5] The Cheonan was one of the ships involved in the First Battle of Yeonpyeong in 1999.[12] It is also known that the ship suffered slight damage on the stern in the First Battle of Yeonpyeong.[13] The ship had been scheduled for decommissioning in 2019.[11] |
I just thought that since the Cheonan was involved in a pair of battles and anti-submarine operations that it would be classified as a battle or war ship. In all honestly, I'm not completely informed about the proper terminology.
But I don't think this was an internet "got ya!" moment on your part Steels
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