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Threequalseven
Joined: 08 May 2012
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 Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2013 3:20 am Post subject: |
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| Yaya wrote: |
| http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-20/korean-bond-yields-touch-11-month-high-won-slides-on-bernanke.html |
This is what I was thinking. I read about Bernanke's announcement the day after posting this. I worry that ending the stimulus could have disastrous effects for the US (and the rest of the world in turn), but it's inevitable. I heard once that for every .0001% increase in the federal interest rate, something like $60billion worth of equity gets wiped out of the derivatives market. So it will be interesting to see what happens if interest rates return to a normal rate of ~6%.
Anyway, from what I gather, Korea is a place where investors put their money to grow when times are good. But when things get rough, they pull their money out of Korea and move it to safer investments. So, less demand for won means every won is worth less, which means the USD>KRW exchange rate rises. It's interesting that the timing of last weeks spike correlates to the Fed announcement so directly. It suggests there is definite concern over ending QE, which is set to happen the middle of next year. I guess we'll just have to wait and see how big of an impact this will actually have. |
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young_clinton
Joined: 09 Sep 2009
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| Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2013 3:46 am Post subject: |
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| World Traveler wrote: |
| Check out the graph my friend. It was 93 cents just a few weeks ago. The last time it was 79 cents was in 2010 after the Cheonan incident. |
If you look at the graph it looks like the Won is going to weaken. However you can't depend only on graphs, there's other things to consider. For instance someone made the comment that the Won tends to follow the dollar so that has to be taken into consideration before a person panics and exchanges all his won to dollars at this local low point in the strength of the Won. |
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loose_ends
Joined: 23 Jul 2007
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| Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2013 8:20 pm Post subject: |
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Benjamin Fulford has recently "reported" that Hyundai is going to go bankrupt soon, likely triggering a financial collapse in Korea. If there is any truth to what he is "reporting", however unlikely, I wonder if the weakening won is an early sign. I take everything he says with a grain of salt but here is the link for those interested.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1duCIdio8t8 |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2013 8:40 pm Post subject: |
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| ttompatz wrote: |
Pray it doesn't hit 68 cents like it did at the end of 2008 (1466 won=$1).
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Don't think it has changed for Canadians. 2006 to 2007 2 million won was 2300 bucks. Then end of 2007 it dropped to around 2000 to 2100 bucks. (But dollar shot to 1.10 US). Then end of 2008, it dropped further. 2 million won was 1700 to 1800 bucks. Mostly closer to 1700 and has stayed at that rate ever since. Had some early hopes when I saw it rise to 1800 bucks earlier this year. But every time is rises, it stalls out at 1850 bucks. Been a frustrationg few years. Even the 1997 crash didn't drag on like this, even though it was much worse. |
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tran.huongthu
Joined: 23 May 2011
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| Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2013 8:41 pm Post subject: |
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| Threequalseven wrote: |
| Yaya wrote: |
| http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-20/korean-bond-yields-touch-11-month-high-won-slides-on-bernanke.html |
This is what I was thinking. I read about Bernanke's announcement the day after posting this. I worry that ending the stimulus could have disastrous effects for the US (and the rest of the world in turn), but it's inevitable. I heard once that for every .0001% increase in the federal interest rate, something like $60billion worth of equity gets wiped out of the derivatives market. So it will be interesting to see what happens if interest rates return to a normal rate of ~6%.
Anyway, from what I gather, Korea is a place where investors put their money to grow when times are good. But when things get rough, they pull their money out of Korea and move it to safer investments. So, less demand for won means every won is worth less, which means the USD>KRW exchange rate rises. It's interesting that the timing of last weeks spike correlates to the Fed announcement so directly. It suggests there is definite concern over ending QE, which is set to happen the middle of next year. I guess we'll just have to wait and see how big of an impact this will actually have. |
Ending EQ means less capital flowing into the markets and so they go down, by a lot. The Won is a risky asset and during times like these people start to buy dollars which weakens the Won even further. A ton of downward pressure on the Won right now and its a very very good time to send a ton of money home. It could go back up once the dust settles but the market's great liquidity driven run is over and times and things are going to get rough. |
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alexoh85
Joined: 23 Aug 2011
Location: Mokdong Seoul
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| Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2013 9:46 pm Post subject: |
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| how about buying in trading won for canadian? then canadian to us? seems like the canadian is weaker against the won right now. |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Mon Jun 24, 2013 10:55 pm Post subject: |
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| alexoh85 wrote: |
| how about buying in trading won for canadian? then canadian to us? seems like the canadian is weaker against the won right now. |
Nope, 2 mil is 1812 bucks. Nothing special. If it shot up to being over 1900 bucks or even being above 2000 bucks, then we'd be talking. |
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alexoh85
Joined: 23 Aug 2011
Location: Mokdong Seoul
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| Posted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 1:08 am Post subject: |
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| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| alexoh85 wrote: |
| how about buying in trading won for canadian? then canadian to us? seems like the canadian is weaker against the won right now. |
Nope, 2 mil is 1812 bucks. Nothing special. If it shot up to being over 1900 bucks or even being above 2000 bucks, then we'd be talking. |
1 CAD = 1,103 Won
1 US = 1,160 Won
1 CAD = .95 Dollar
If you change 10 mil in CAD you get 9,061 CAD as opposed to 8,660 US. You would be saving over 400 bucks. Am i missing something here? Sorry, im not a currency expert ^^ |
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NYC_Gal 2.0
Joined: 10 Dec 2010
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| Posted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 2:34 am Post subject: |
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| Canadian dollars are worth less than American dollars. It's the same amount of money. |
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Threequalseven
Joined: 08 May 2012
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| Posted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 3:05 am Post subject: |
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I get paid on Thursday, so maybe I'll send my next paycheck home and start paying with my American card once the won gets really weak.
Today 2,000,000 won = ~ $1,724
Say the exchange rate jumps to 1:1,400 like it did during the US housing collapse, then my $1,724 = 2,413,000 won.
It wouldn't help me save anything, but at least I could get a few free meals out of the deal. |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Thu Jun 27, 2013 2:41 am Post subject: |
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| alexoh85 wrote: |
| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| alexoh85 wrote: |
| how about buying in trading won for canadian? then canadian to us? seems like the canadian is weaker against the won right now. |
Nope, 2 mil is 1812 bucks. Nothing special. If it shot up to being over 1900 bucks or even being above 2000 bucks, then we'd be talking. |
1 CAD = 1,103 Won
1 US = 1,160 Won
1 CAD = .95 Dollar
If you change 10 mil in CAD you get 9,061 CAD as opposed to 8,660 US. You would be saving over 400 bucks. Am i missing something here? Sorry, im not a currency expert ^^ |
Sorry to hear it's worse for you. Thought our currencies were roughly at par. Still under the old system, 10 K would have been $11,500 cdn. I guess glass half full then. |
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