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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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 Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:26 pm Post subject: |
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| World Traveler wrote: |
| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| World Traveler wrote: |
| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| I don't see EPIK raising their pay for the levels any time soon unless they start becoming really desperate. |
Why would they be desperate though? They are cutting native speakers. Korean teachers are taking over the classes once done by NETs. So no, I don't think they will ever become desperate ever again. |
If the economy recovers by some miracle and the government is awash in money to spend again combined with less foriegners coming here due to a better economy back home or opportunities to make money elsewhere. How this will play out is really anyone's guess. |
If Korea becomes awash in money, why would they bother bringing back NET positions which were cut? The country's sudden wealth would be proof of the adequacy of the Korean teachers teaching English/ proof the status quo (the current level of English) is sufficient. The NET plan was a plan to help a poor country to become rich by helping Korean students and teachers learn English (and to introduce Korea to Westerners in hopes that would make Korea more well known). Emerging markets are the best deal. Korea is not going to go back to becoming a new and emerging market. Do you think Japan's ESL market will ever go back to being an amazing deal? It will never happen. Likewise, it will never happen in Korea. |
Japan's ESL market declined because their economy declined. They spent too much on stimulus, ran up huge debts, increased protectionism and bureacracy, charge too many fees for everything. If Korea follows in this, it's market will decline. But Korea is different from Japan in the sense it signed FTA agreements. WHat will happen here will be anyone's guess, I guess.
2008 EPIK in my area couldn't get enough teachers in my old rural area. Took them months to get people and they were really old. Late 2008, world economy goes to crap and March 2009, lots of foriegners show up and they show up on time (IE March, not June or July before they find someone)> Also newbies are of a younger age group than before.
The flooding of waygooks into Korea has a direct correlation to the economic crash. But will Korea flip back to before exactly the same? I doubt it. The downturn has gone on for two long. Will it emerge into Japan which has had a depressed economy for 20 years? Hard to say. |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:30 pm Post subject: |
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| atwood wrote: |
| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| World Traveler wrote: |
| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| I don't see EPIK raising their pay for the levels any time soon unless they start becoming really desperate. |
Why would they be desperate though? They are cutting native speakers. Korean teachers are taking over the classes once done by NETs. So no, I don't think they will ever become desperate ever again. |
If the economy recovers by some miracle and the government is awash in money to spend again combined with less foriegners coming here due to a better economy back home or opportunities to make money elsewhere. How this will play out is really anyone's guess. |
If a bullfrog had wings, it wouldn't bump its ass every time it hopped.  |
Yeah, well, not many of us could have believed how stupid the politicians in Washington would have been when this got started. Past recessions lasted a couple of years and then got back to booming. Only exceptions were the recession of the early 80's and the mid to late 70's. So, the downturn recovers, with a very slow recovery - partly real and partly cooked books. (Cooked books in the sense the way GDP growth is calculated has been conveniently changed and if inflation were calculated the same way as 1980, it would be over 10%.) Let the politicians keep spending and printing like the selfish idiots they are while the smart folks stock up on gold. |
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atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
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| Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2014 10:37 pm Post subject: |
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| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| atwood wrote: |
| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| World Traveler wrote: |
| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| I don't see EPIK raising their pay for the levels any time soon unless they start becoming really desperate. |
Why would they be desperate though? They are cutting native speakers. Korean teachers are taking over the classes once done by NETs. So no, I don't think they will ever become desperate ever again. |
If the economy recovers by some miracle and the government is awash in money to spend again combined with less foriegners coming here due to a better economy back home or opportunities to make money elsewhere. How this will play out is really anyone's guess. |
If a bullfrog had wings, it wouldn't bump its ass every time it hopped. |
Yeah, well, not many of us could have believed how stupid the politicians in Washington would have been when this got started. Past recessions lasted a couple of years and then got back to booming. Only exceptions were the recession of the early 80's and the mid to late 70's. So, the downturn recovers, with a very slow recovery - partly real and partly cooked books. (Cooked books in the sense the way GDP growth is calculated has been conveniently changed and if inflation were calculated the same way as 1980, it would be over 10%.) Let the politicians keep spending and printing like the selfish idiots they are while the smart folks stock up on gold. |
You're misreading me. I'm talking about the Korean government.
The U.S. economy is in a slow but steady recovery.
As for your contentions regarding how U.S. inflation is calculated, I'd like to see some substantiation that "the books are being cooked." I've seen that claim made many times, but have never seen any proof. |
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World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
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| Posted: Wed Apr 16, 2014 11:06 pm Post subject: |
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| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| partly real and partly cooked books. (Cooked books in the sense the way GDP growth is calculated has been conveniently changed and if inflation were calculated the same way as 1980, it would be over 10%.) Let the politicians keep spending and printing like the selfish idiots they are while the smart folks stock up on gold. |
Did it ever occur to you the old way of calculation was inaccurate, and that's why it was changed?
Japan has always been wealthier than Korea and always will be.
In 1989, when Korea was a much poorer country, privates paid 50,000 an hour. 50,000 an hour in 1989 is 134,000 won in today's money. The going rate for privates now: maybe 40,000 an hour. But privates don't fall from trees anymore; they are hard to get (and maintain). What is the cause? There are many and they are extremely complex.
Ditch your fiat currency and buy gold? You sound like guavashake and radcon.
Public school conditions (and even university conditions and availability of privates) were declining long before 2009. Schools figured out how to more effectively use NETs/get more work out of them over time. If you think the ESL market in Korea is going to doing anything but gradually decline over time, you're crazy. It's been on a (slow, gradual) decline for a while now. There's no reason to believe it would revert (even somewhat) to what it was like in the past. |
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GENO123
Joined: 28 Jan 2010
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| Posted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 3:35 pm Post subject: |
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| Both Japan and Korea are going to get poorer because they have too many old people and not enough young people. China is also headed for a fall as well. |
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TheUrbanMyth
Joined: 28 Jan 2003
Location: Retired
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| Posted: Sun Apr 20, 2014 7:09 pm Post subject: |
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[quote="Steelrails"]
| Quote: |
. If you took the lesson-planning resources of That Other ESL Site, combined with some sort of benefits program that might link to discounts at stores, restaurants, tour packages, amusement parks, movies, and pubs, and an umbrella of support services relating to health care, mental health, legal advocacy, pet adoption and veterinary services, child care and education, housing, etc. then you might have had something.
. |
Except that you would first have to get the merchants or service providers at these "stores, restaurants, tour packages"...)to agree.
Plus this doesn't cover all foreigners (only teachers) as they would be the only ones really interested in "lesson-planning resources). Why would anybody be interested in giving discounts to a niche group that is less than 1% of the people in Korea and who are not going to be long-term (5-10 years) customers? Heck it can be hard enough getting service at the regular rates at some places. Until recently a lot of teachers couldn't get credit cards, or certain phones or other services. Look at all the threads about it.
Point being if it's difficult enough to get them them at all even at regular prices...there is certainly going to be no interest in offering a discount.
Unions have been discussed many time on these boards...2 or 3 have even been set up (ATEK is just the most known example). None have ever succeeded.
Also you run into the problem of people coming and going. Most people here are here for a short time and then go back home. How are they even going to know about such a group? And if they do will they care? Most likely not. Come in, wing it for a year or two and go home. And who enforces the rules at this group? Who is in charge? Who gets to make them?
Certainly it sounds good and even feasible in theory...but once put into practice you find it will be a lot harder. ATEK originally wanted to cover those areas of health insurance. legal advocacy and housing as well. After it ran into a few roadblocks it dropped those issues. |
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ATM SPIDERTAO
Joined: 05 Jul 2009
Location: seoul, south korea
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| Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2014 5:15 pm Post subject: |
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i'll add a little comment on japan
they have like ZERO interest in learning English. in fact, english and other major languages are basically equally important.
but in korea, english is super important right now cuz they're playing catch up. they're naturally good at learning japanese and have many ties to japan
they also have a natural source of chinese speaking koreans in the chinese-Korean population near north korea.
but in a few years, they will no longer value English as the prized language ability. it'll become a standard language. other languages such as german, czech, arabic and more obscure languages will be in hot commodity.
english isn't that important anymore.
the youth in japan don't care about english and think their country is better. it's starting to feel that way in korea
back in 2008 when i first came, people thought i was so cool that i could speak english and want to talk to me
look around in 2014. how many people think it's cool that you speak english?
they're more impressed that you speak korean now. national pride is coming an all time high.
think about it. how impressed are you that some french person can speak french back home? you would tell them to learn English.
it's gonna happen here in korea lol |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2014 6:07 pm Post subject: |
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| World Traveler wrote: |
| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| partly real and partly cooked books. (Cooked books in the sense the way GDP growth is calculated has been conveniently changed and if inflation were calculated the same way as 1980, it would be over 10%.) Let the politicians keep spending and printing like the selfish idiots they are while the smart folks stock up on gold. |
Did it ever occur to you the old way of calculation was inaccurate, and that's why it was changed?
Japan has always been wealthier than Korea and always will be.
In 1989, when Korea was a much poorer country, privates paid 50,000 an hour. 50,000 an hour in 1989 is 134,000 won in today's money. The going rate for privates now: maybe 40,000 an hour. But privates don't fall from trees anymore; they are hard to get (and maintain). What is the cause? There are many and they are extremely complex.
Ditch your fiat currency and buy gold? You sound like guavashake and radcon.
Public school conditions (and even university conditions and availability of privates) were declining long before 2009. Schools figured out how to more effectively use NETs/get more work out of them over time. If you think the ESL market in Korea is going to doing anything but gradually decline over time, you're crazy. It's been on a (slow, gradual) decline for a while now. There's no reason to believe it would revert (even somewhat) to what it was like in the past. |
Privates for 50,000 an hour then would have been by a few rare rich or richer people in 1989. There would have been relatively few foriegners back then. Now there are more who can pay for English but too many foriegners flooding the market. Supply and demand.
EPIK conditions improved up until 2009. Rising salaries, increasing vacation times, etc. Many rural areas were so desperate pre 2009, that they gave unofficial extra perks like extra days off, go home earlies, etc. They were afraid the waygok would leave. Many I speak to in these areas don't get that so much anymore. Another white face is waiting in the wings to replace them. As my previously example said, there were less foriegners here pre 2009, more now.
As for gold, the US dollar has been a fiat currency since 1971 when Nixon went ott the gold standard. Huge inflation in the 70's. Inflation came down in the early 80's because Fed Chief (appointed by Carter and supported by Reagan) Paul Volckler raised interest rates to double digits to break the back of inflation. This means not only not printing money, but also severly tightening the money supply. It put the country into a deep recession but it worked and by 1983, as interest rates were falling, the economy was recovering and without inflation.
But, in recent years, as the deficit and debt has grown to record levels and fed is printing money, there is real inflation. People see it all the time in the dramatic price hikes for food and other things. This trickles over into other western countries too. China and other countries that are holding a lot of US debt are quite upset that their holdings of this debt is becoming worth less and less. Many Chinese people, the government, and many other countries are starting to stockpile gold. When there is enough of it in their countries, to back theri currencies, you will see folks stop using the US dollar.
The US can save itself by getting tough on it's spending, riening in inflation, and get lucky if it finds lots more oil reserves that have to be purchased in dollars. The Saudis have sold their oil in dollars since the seventies propping up the dollar in exchange for US protection. So, I'm not a gloom and doom type or living in a conspiracy bunker. But do want to get my debts gone as quickly as possible if interest rates spike. I really am perplexed that both sides in Washington have not gotten together to fight this problem instead of both sides having their stupid childish petty fights via Fox and MSNBC. (Canada had a similiar problem by the mid 90's and all the parties got together and said we've got to turn this around. New Zealand did it in the 80's and made tough choices and moved on.)
A google search and the lessons of history (and history repeating itself)
are never far from one's fingertips. |
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edwardcatflap
Joined: 22 Mar 2009
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| Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2014 6:26 pm Post subject: |
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but in a few years, they will no longer value English as the prized language ability. it'll become a standard language. other languages such as german, czech, arabic and more obscure languages will be in hot commodity.
The biggest companies in the world are American and global companies that aren't American still need English to do business with other countries in an international language. At the moment that's still English and doesn't show any signs of changing. Unless more than half the numbers of people learning English now suddenly decide to chose one language from German, Czech, Arabic etc... and all start learning it instead of English, those languages will never be as useful.
Also the language of tourism and travel is still English and as long as countries want to sell stuff to tourists they will continue to learn English first.
the youth in japan don't care about english and think their country is better
I'm sure Japanese and Korean kids feel that way, why should they feel any different? People don't usually start learning languages because they think another country is 'better'. They might learn a language with the idea of emmigrating but that doesn't mean they wouldn't prefer to live in their own countries if they had the same standard of living. Going by the numbers of Koreans taking the IELTS test, just as many of them want to study and emmigrate abroad nowadays as ten years ago.
national pride is coming an all time high
That's a bit unfortunate bearing in mind recent events.
it's gonna happen here in korea lol
Ok, that 'lol' at the end suggests you're trolling rather than just a bit thick, so I'm probably wasting my time. |
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Steelrails
Joined: 12 Mar 2009
Location: Earth, Solar System
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| Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2014 6:51 pm Post subject: |
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[quote="TheUrbanMyth"]
| Steelrails wrote: |
| Quote: |
. If you took the lesson-planning resources of That Other ESL Site, combined with some sort of benefits program that might link to discounts at stores, restaurants, tour packages, amusement parks, movies, and pubs, and an umbrella of support services relating to health care, mental health, legal advocacy, pet adoption and veterinary services, child care and education, housing, etc. then you might have had something.
. |
Except that you would first have to get the merchants or service providers at these "stores, restaurants, tour packages"...)to agree.
Plus this doesn't cover all foreigners (only teachers) as they would be the only ones really interested in "lesson-planning resources). Why would anybody be interested in giving discounts to a niche group that is less than 1% of the people in Korea and who are not going to be long-term (5-10 years) customers? Heck it can be hard enough getting service at the regular rates at some places. Until recently a lot of teachers couldn't get credit cards, or certain phones or other services. Look at all the threads about it.
Point being if it's difficult enough to get them them at all even at regular prices...there is certainly going to be no interest in offering a discount.
Unions have been discussed many time on these boards...2 or 3 have even been set up (ATEK is just the most known example). None have ever succeeded.
Also you run into the problem of people coming and going. Most people here are here for a short time and then go back home. How are they even going to know about such a group? And if they do will they care? Most likely not. Come in, wing it for a year or two and go home. And who enforces the rules at this group? Who is in charge? Who gets to make them?
Certainly it sounds good and even feasible in theory...but once put into practice you find it will be a lot harder. ATEK originally wanted to cover those areas of health insurance. legal advocacy and housing as well. After it ran into a few roadblocks it dropped those issues. |
That's why I mentioned That Other ESL Site. Say what you will about it, it does seem that virtually EVERYONE ends up there. Not to post on the boards, but to download materials. That's how you get them in. Conceivably, they could start charging 10 bucks a year for their services and people would probably pay. The reasons the other unions failed is because none of them focused on offering services that people wanted and needed.
Anything like this needs to be planned with the long game in mind. For the first 5+ years, the organization would be little more than materials, a message board, and links to promotions and services. Your initial advertisers and discount services would be at places like Gringo's, EZShop, NiceDeli, Whatthebook, culture/entertainment magazines, and expat bars announcing drink specials and live events. Those are stores and services that cater to that 1% niche. As the organization grows and becomes more stable and demonstrates a history of income and stable membership, you could branch out into things like Chartis car insurance (the one company in Korea that offers 24-7 English roadside assistance). You could even do variations of kickstarter where you get X number of people to sign up for something and then a discount kicks in. We're not talking the second coming of the AARP here and we're not talking round-trip business class tickets for half off. We're talking small promotions and discounts put out by a limited number of promoters.
Waygook already has a good many number of people by the short'n'curly's with its materials thing. Heck, we have another thread going right now where people are ranting and raving over some guy's youtube videos where he rants and raves about people just using that site. Heck, this thing almost seems to be reaching the point where its own momentum will take it in that direction anyway. |
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atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
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| Posted: Tue Apr 22, 2014 7:07 pm Post subject: |
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| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| World Traveler wrote: |
| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| partly real and partly cooked books. (Cooked books in the sense the way GDP growth is calculated has been conveniently changed and if inflation were calculated the same way as 1980, it would be over 10%.) Let the politicians keep spending and printing like the selfish idiots they are while the smart folks stock up on gold. |
Did it ever occur to you the old way of calculation was inaccurate, and that's why it was changed?
Japan has always been wealthier than Korea and always will be.
In 1989, when Korea was a much poorer country, privates paid 50,000 an hour. 50,000 an hour in 1989 is 134,000 won in today's money. The going rate for privates now: maybe 40,000 an hour. But privates don't fall from trees anymore; they are hard to get (and maintain). What is the cause? There are many and they are extremely complex.
Ditch your fiat currency and buy gold? You sound like guavashake and radcon.
Public school conditions (and even university conditions and availability of privates) were declining long before 2009. Schools figured out how to more effectively use NETs/get more work out of them over time. If you think the ESL market in Korea is going to doing anything but gradually decline over time, you're crazy. It's been on a (slow, gradual) decline for a while now. There's no reason to believe it would revert (even somewhat) to what it was like in the past. |
Privates for 50,000 an hour then would have been by a few rare rich or richer people in 1989. There would have been relatively few foriegners back then. Now there are more who can pay for English but too many foriegners flooding the market. Supply and demand.
EPIK conditions improved up until 2009. Rising salaries, increasing vacation times, etc. Many rural areas were so desperate pre 2009, that they gave unofficial extra perks like extra days off, go home earlies, etc. They were afraid the waygok would leave. Many I speak to in these areas don't get that so much anymore. Another white face is waiting in the wings to replace them. As my previously example said, there were less foriegners here pre 2009, more now.
As for gold, the US dollar has been a fiat currency since 1971 when Nixon went ott the gold standard. Huge inflation in the 70's. Inflation came down in the early 80's because Fed Chief (appointed by Carter and supported by Reagan) Paul Volckler raised interest rates to double digits to break the back of inflation. This means not only not printing money, but also severly tightening the money supply. It put the country into a deep recession but it worked and by 1983, as interest rates were falling, the economy was recovering and without inflation.
But, in recent years, as the deficit and debt has grown to record levels and fed is printing money, there is real inflation. People see it all the time in the dramatic price hikes for food and other things. This trickles over into other western countries too. China and other countries that are holding a lot of US debt are quite upset that their holdings of this debt is becoming worth less and less. Many Chinese people, the government, and many other countries are starting to stockpile gold. When there is enough of it in their countries, to back theri currencies, you will see folks stop using the US dollar.
The US can save itself by getting tough on it's spending, riening in inflation, and get lucky if it finds lots more oil reserves that have to be purchased in dollars. The Saudis have sold their oil in dollars since the seventies propping up the dollar in exchange for US protection. So, I'm not a gloom and doom type or living in a conspiracy bunker. But do want to get my debts gone as quickly as possible if interest rates spike. I really am perplexed that both sides in Washington have not gotten together to fight this problem instead of both sides having their stupid childish petty fights via Fox and MSNBC. (Canada had a similiar problem by the mid 90's and all the parties got together and said we've got to turn this around. New Zealand did it in the 80's and made tough choices and moved on.)
A google search and the lessons of history (and history repeating itself)
are never far from one's fingertips. |
There is too little inflation in the U.S., not too much. Interest rates are not going to spike.
As for oil, the U.S. is the world's no 3 producer of oil, and it is increasing its production. Some estimate that it will soon be able to fulfill all its oil needs without importing any oil.
You might to avail yourself of that Google search function you're promoting. |
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Weigookin74
Joined: 26 Oct 2009
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| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2014 6:39 pm Post subject: |
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In response to the last comment. Rising gold prices are not simply a figment of the imagination. But gold prices spike throughout history as a protection against inflation and other types of political or economic instability.
http://www.ebullionguide.com/price-chart-gold-last-10-years.aspx
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-12/inflation-too-low-are-you-kidding-us-bernanke
GDP growth rates. Never seen numbers this bad. But the government will start to change the way they calculate it. Doesn't seem a strange coincidence after so many years in a row of bad numbers? The fact is the economy hasn't been so bad for so many years. Obviously the current government isn't doing something right. But keep believing whatever you want.
http://useconomy.about.com/od/GDP-by-Year/a/US-GDP-History.htm
Either way the economy isn't recovering as I would have originally hoped when this crisis first struck back in 2009 because people keep voting for idiots and let themself be deceived. So, the awesome place that Korea use to be has probably now disappeared forever as there are too many lemmings coming over here from back home to escape those wonderful economic numbers that many seem to claim exist. People aren't voting the right way at the ballot box, but they sure are voting with their feet much to the frustration of those us already here in Korea. |
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atwood
Joined: 26 Dec 2009
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| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2014 7:03 pm Post subject: |
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| Weigookin74 wrote: |
In response to the last comment. Rising gold prices are not simply a figment of the imagination. But gold prices spike throughout history as a protection against inflation and other types of political or economic instability.
http://www.ebullionguide.com/price-chart-gold-last-10-years.aspx
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-07-12/inflation-too-low-are-you-kidding-us-bernanke
GDP growth rates. Never seen numbers this bad. But the government will start to change the way they calculate it. Doesn't seem a strange coincidence after so many years in a row of bad numbers? The fact is the economy hasn't been so bad for so many years. Obviously the current government isn't doing something right. But keep believing whatever you want.
http://useconomy.about.com/od/GDP-by-Year/a/US-GDP-History.htm
Either way the economy isn't recovering as I would have originally hoped when this crisis first struck back in 2009 because people keep voting for idiots and let themself be deceived. So, the awesome place that Korea use to be has probably now disappeared forever as there are too many lemmings coming over here from back home to escape those wonderful economic numbers that many seem to claim exist. People aren't voting the right way at the ballot box, but they sure are voting with their feet much to the frustration of those us already here in Korea. |
Nope.
Gold is down. Those speculating on inflation were wrong and will continue to be wrong.
As for Tyler Durden, his "analysis" is unfortunately based on what he already believes, not in actual analysis. Blaming Bernanke for the rise in commodity prices is a case in point. Putting aside, the rise of emerging market economies and the demand that has created, what about speculators such as yourself and Durden? Aren't you driving prices up?
Like Tyler, you're going to believe what you want to believe and when the facts don't fit your story, you'll just say the government rigged the game.
Good luck with the gold! |
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World Traveler
Joined: 29 May 2009
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| Posted: Wed Apr 23, 2014 7:27 pm Post subject: |
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| Weigookin74 wrote: |
| EPIK conditions improved up until 2009. |
Is that true though? Go further back and camps were optional and paid (rather than mandatory and unpaid). Vacation was 10 weeks instead of 4 weeks. There was little to no oversight/interference of NETs. Co-teachers disciplined students and kept them in line instead of expecting the foreigner to do all the disciplining. NETs were new and novel, and hence often got the red carpet treatment. Contract terms gradually started getting worse starting in 2006/2007. Same with universities. The number of NETs coming to Korea (due more to increased awareness of teaching overseas more than anything else) has been increasing each year long before 2009. Public schools are cutting positions and having NETs teach at multiple schools so there are less jobs now. Foreigners are coming over more (not just North Americans, but South Africans, Filipinos, etc.) because- while not known by most- is becoming more and more well known. More Filipinos (and others) are teaching English via Skype. (Skype didn't exist/wasn't often used until recently.) It's not just the economy. |
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